It's Over: We're in Recession [Do this NOW].

well folks bad news we might officially

be in a recession we need to talk about

why in this video we need to talk about

when markets bottom in this video

because there's a lot of information out

there and you kind of got to pick which

side to follow on this one and we're

going to talk about how to prepare

yourself in all this first things first

you probably already heard about the job

numbers this morning I don't want to

reiterate the nonsense what matters most

is that this jobs report was 2.6

standard deviations off expectation

which has now triggered the S rule the S

rule being triggered is a recessionary

indicator the St Louis Federal Reserve

they literally call it the realtime Som

rule recession indicator once it crosses

over

0.5 boom you might already be in a

recession in fact when you go back here

and you look 1960s boom you're in a

recession when it crossed 0.5 over here

boom 70 you're in a recession when it

crossed 0.5 over here didn't cross 05 no

recession over here cross5 recession

over here hit 05 didn't exceed 0.5 no

recession over here uh you uh pass5

recession pass5 recession what do you

have over here 33 no recession no

recession p05

recession get where I'm going with this

right every time it goes over 05

recession look at where it is right now

now it's not a hard and fast does not

mean with certainty that we are in a

recession but it is quite likely that we

have just entered a recession some

people are going to say oh but Kevin it

was the hurricane it's the hurricane

that's why the job numbers came in low

okay then what's now though important to

know is that if we are in a recession

when does the market bottom that's the

big question according to Bloomberg if

you average all of these prior recession

indicators the market bottoms when the

Su rule triggers

oh my gosh that means right now buy the

dip hold on not so fast I like to look

at 2000 and 2008 I take out covid and I

wanted to see what happened when the S

rule was triggered at these levels

because in my opinion they much more

associate with not a run-of A- Mill

recession but rather an insane bubble of

some form the.com bubble the housing

bubble and now the AI bubble okay I'm

gonna say it do I do I think there's an

AI bubble yes I've been complaining

about this for a very long time now and

what I found when the PSM rule was

triggered here was very different from

what Bloomberg said and that's my goal

on this channel is to always provide you

perspective that at least challenges

some of the mainstream perspectives out

there so you get different perspectives

so you can you can ask yourself do I

agree with Kevin or do I agree with

Bloomberg work I'm going to give you

both sides and then you can decide you

don't have to pick my

side now we did very well in the last I

mean frankly today today did very well

yesterday I was dumb I had some AMD

calls I got burned on that we already

talked about getting burned yesterday

but I made more than that burnage back

today because my shorts made some really

nice dollar hollas uh I threw it in an

ibkr order the ibkr order doubled my

account on ibkr I rarely trade on there

my Robin account I doubled this week

because I threw puts in there as well I

rarely trade in there as well and then

my p&l for today is glorious 203 so I

mean you could see this this is you know

$400

$450,000 in in tendies just in the last

24 hours because I have been bearish

since July 11th I didn't play it

perfectly over the last three weeks but

if you want all my Buy sell alerts just

to get my perspective and my discussions

in the course member live streams

remember we did extend the coupon code

to the end of the day today we wanted to

get through the jobs Catalyst some

people were asking about getting through

the jobs Catalyst here it is so

meetkevin.com to join you pay once

you're in Forever price guaranteed to be

the lowest you can ever get otherwise

your money back take a look at this

folks June 2001 the S rule triggers

write that down June 2001 .53 that's

where we sit today now write this down

April 2008

to May 2008 Som rule triggers write that

down why does that matter because it

took a little bit longer for the market

to actually bottom out in those Cycles

it took 15 to 20 months to bottom out

after the S rule triggered in 2001

another asset bubble it took 9 to 10

months to bottom out after the uh 20 8

trigger another asset bubble in other

words we could be at the beginning of

this sell off now does that mean the

Market's going to go straight down

absolutely not the market will in my

opinion absolutely not go straight down

in fact it will just slowly bleed every

day you're going to get those people who

post oh look Kevin today the stock is up

see you were wrong I literally had a

financial guy a financial a money man

manager when I said why would you go

long small caps right now that is the

worst thing to own in a recession it

literally had a a financial adviser and

I won't put him I I don't want to put

him up on blast and I'll tell you why

two reasons uh I won't put him up on

blast but on X at real me Kevin he

replies me goes oh okay Kevin I think

you're going to be wrong the very next

day iwm's like up 1 and a half% small

caps he's like uh see Kevin was wrong

Tom Lee is right again Tomley is always

right now look I'm not here to declare

Victory right now but if you look right

now so to me it looks like investing in

iwm was a bad idea is what it looks like

right now and I think frankly it's just

getting started because if we are

triggering a recession warning the

stupidest thing to own are small caps

because they're the ones that are going

to go bankrupt you would be better off

buying the dip on Nvidia which I think

is a bubble risk You' be better off

buying the dip on Amazon as the next

Walmart than you would be buying the dip

on the Russell where you're going to

have a bunch of bks weighing this sucker

down no way

Jose anyway as a result of this sort of

Tiff the reason I don't want to put that

person on blast for you know critiquing

me that very next day is because he

ended up deleting his post so I couldn't

find it again uh and I didn't even say

anything I'm not like prancing around

trying to declare Victory today I didn't

even say anything but all of a sudden

I'm like I wonder what Tom Lee's saying

today I wasn't even going to say

anything was not even going to say

anything and this is what I get I got a

thank you card in the mail from Tom Lee

there it is on on screen right there

anyway listen the greed and fear index

is something that we need to pay very

close attention to folks yesterday we

were at 40 39 today we're at

26 this is probably going to keep going

why because Market momentum probably has

to go below the 125 day moving average

and stock price strength needs to move

out of extreme greed you need all of

this to be fear fear fear we're not

there yet the vix say

skyrocketed uh Safe Haven demand

skyrocketed junk bond yields have

skyrocketed we're about to reinert on

the yield curve Now understand what that

usually signals when the difference

between the 2-year and the 10-year goes

positive again after having been

inverted it usually means you have begun

a recession we are currently 9.9 basis

points inverted we are in nine basis

points spread away from once again

triggering a recession with now a second

indicator not there yet so far it's just

the S

rule this is not

good now I also want you to remember

there's a very very key signal that we

saw this morning this morning Jim Kramer

was asked are we going into a recession

and Jim Kramer said no of course

not I'm very

nervous JP Morgan City Group are all

increasing their odds of a Federal

Reserve rate cut Nick T also famously

considered Nikki

leaks believes that a lot of

Institutions are now ramping up their

interest rate cut projections and I'd

like to tell you something I think

they're all wrong these numbers are all

going to end up being too low over time

now do I think there's a likelihood of

us getting a 50 BP in September folks if

the market continues to correct the way

it is correcting now we are going to get

a lot more than a 50 basis point cut the

Federal Reserve will declare Victory on

inflation and in order to preserve the

jobs Market the Federal Reserve will cut

rates back first to 2% and then to 0%

they will do so rapidly they won't do so

based on just today's jobs report in

fact they're going to try to exercise

restraint and they will wait they will

wait wait wait wait until unfortunately

it's too late and they'll have no choice

but to cut rates back to zero that's

when you're going to get a lot of folks

who argue oh my gosh this is going to

set off a second wave of inflation no

it's not because everybody's going to be

jobless you're going to have

manufacturing Supply chains that are so

freaking loose

that you can't have inflation because

nobody can raise prices even in an

environment of low interest rates

because nobody will be able to finance

anything because a they'll either have

lost their jobs or their hours have will

have gotten cut or their salary will

have getting have gotten sliced I talked

about this today in my course member

live stream listen I'm not always right

in my trades I always make that clear

I'm not always right in my trades I do

not

guarantee that you are going to to make

money but what I do every single day is

I show up I try my best and I give you

perspective and I'm going to give you a

little spoiler alert of what I talked

about to course members today I said

listen if we don't go into recession

fantastic but if you ask yourself right

now is now the time to buy the Cyber

truck is now the time to YOLO all your

money on on new clothing an expensive

vacation a home addition is now the time

to put your family's future at risk or

is now the time to be

cautious my belief is the time is to be

cautious my belief is you should cut

your expenses my belief is you should

pretend you should go through an

exercise with your family right now what

are we going to do if one of us loses

our jobs what are we going to do if my

salary gets cut in half what are we

going to do if we both lose our jobs

what skill set do we have to get another

job

what are we going to

do those are the exercises to start

thinking about now worst case scenario

you don't lose your job no recession

everything goes back to normal fine big

deal you cut expenses you were

safe but what happens if you don't

pre-plan for that and then you get

rugged your boss calls you up and says

hey you were making 150k 100K a year 80k

a year now you're making 100 or

50 don't like it bye I got 20 other

people willing to do the same work for

that pck this is a time to cut expenses

it is very very very scary uh and look

there are going to be green days this

Market will not fall off a cliff I think

frankly you could go into a 10-month

bare

Market

yikes so you know now people are

speculating on okay well what's going to

do well in a bar Market well potentially

nothing

but if I had to guess probably gold if

we do go into a recession I hate saying

it but probably gold

McDonald's I actually think Amazon will

be a form of McDonald's like I'd way

rather be in Amazon than Nvidia I'll

take the AI play on Amazon and I'll take

that people are going to try to get the

cheapest product possible on Amazon they

will be the dollar store you want to

invest in because if you invest in the

dollar stores they could go

bankrupt I I I I'm telling you you come

here for the perspective that you didn't

even

consider jpow will probably commit to

rate cuts at jhole he kind of already

did but he'll probably recommit to Cuts

maybe even 50 at jhole so maybe markets

will bounce there they will not go down

in a straight line so I think you take

your tendies when you can and you reopen

positions as you'd

like but what I'm looking at is when I

look at a company like Amazon I think

they are going to be a company that will

be the dollar store of the future you go

take them right now at a 166 that's

actually a fib retracement level 166

divided by 557 they're trading for 29.8

times earnings now you look at their

forward growth which could get skewed

obviously these growth estimates could

get skewed especially if you're in a

recession but uh you're looking at

growth of 19 + 18 + 26 78 + 13 39 you're

looking a growth of 77.9 % over the next

4 years I actually think it'll be

greater than that you're sitting at

roughly a 1.5 Peg for a company that

gives you AI exposure but is not purely

part of the AI bubble it didn't run up

like all the other AI plays and could be

the dollar store of the future and

Walmart is sitting at crazy excessive

valuations I don't know I prefer Amazon

ironically on the

dip uh and uh McDonald's on the dip

remember my 2x two found Foundation

model it's inspired by rust the 2x two

says you want to buy companies that do

not have a bankruptcy risk to me that

kills a lot of dollar stores already a

lot of them don't have the strongest

balance

sheets uh you want uh and Amazon and and

McDonald's they're not going to go

bankrupt in the cycle I want valuation

McDonald's and Amazon mostly have that

right now Amazon certainly does

McDonald's a little bit richer but I'm

okay with

it uh sentiment and momentum the

sentiment on both of these is trash I

like buying when sentiment is trash on

those companies and pricing power both

of these companies both of these brands

have absolute pricing power there is not

a doubt in my mind about both of those

companies now would I

hedge uh by being you know maybe short

the cu's or short you know some some AI

of course and again we will bounce we

had a little bit of a bounce this

morning we'll probably bounce again next

week but the next four month uh three

months going into the

election I don't want to be Uber bull I

don't want to be an Uber Bull in this

environment get me through the election

and I'll consider it I'll consider it at

that point but not earlier not any

earlier than that so I really want folks

to think about this not from the

perspective of

fearmongering we could bounce we could

rally again that's okay I'm all right uh

you know sitting on the sidelines and uh

and enjoying but what I want to know uh

you know sort of just just watching cash

raise cash you know short to hedge your

Longs that's the point really hedging

right but what I want to know is when's

the market really going to bottom I

think the market bottoms either when we

confirm a soft Landing which would be a

very soft bottom it would be a very

blurry bottom a very volatile

bottom or when the Federal Reserve

freaks out in fullon

bailouts there were two cases that has

happened pre previously in the past one

is when they joined the course member

live streams themselves and said we're

going to the

Moon okay that never happened that was

really just a Sly pitch probably

relatively weak for me to remind you

about the expiring kubon code today one

was actually February 10th of 2009 when

the Federal Reserve released the

following statement the Federal Reserve

board on Tuesday announced it is

prepared to undertake a substantial

expansion of the term asset back

Securities loan facility the expansion

could increase the size of the to as

much as $1 trillion and could broaden

eligible C collateral to Encompass other

types of newly issued AAA rated asset

backed Securities such as commercial ma

mortgage back Securities private label

real estate mortgage back Securities or

other asset backed Securities in other

words the massive

qe1 that was actually authorized in

November of 2008 under the section 133

emergency lending program uh this was

announced in November of 20 eight this

wasn't enough it took the FED really

panicking and going for a level of

bailout they've never done before and

that's what you got in February of 2009

look at when the stock market bought him

February of 2009 how about March when

the Federal Reserve or uh February to

March of 2009 or 2003 when you had your

second double dip and the Federal

Reserve basically gave the monetary

policy and economic Outlook commitment

to Congress that they will stop at

nothing to protect this economy in the

market bottom that's the kind of fed you

need they weren't yapping about a dual

Mandate of inflation they've talked

about one mandate we'll do whatever man

we need to bail this crap out it's like

when the FED came out in March of 2020

and said we will buy everything infinite

bailout we'll even buy stocks that my

friends is when the market bottoms that

is when you go shopping

I'm just going to keep doing my best

I'll be here every day you know I know

people make fun of me they call me a

flip flum or whatever in volatile times

it is challenging to be perfect in fact

in any time it's challenging to be

perfect and I don't I don't confess to

being perfect at all I don't even

confess to being good I confess to being

some dude on the internet who does his

best and will share his perspective with

you and if you want that persp

persective in the form of course member

Liv streams mein.com if you want it in

the form of these free videos here you

go if you want it in the form of uh uh

trade alerts no guarantees we can make

money obviously today we had a

phenomenal day you know up over 450k

it's it was a phenomenal day uh and made

up for a stupid decision on AMD you

know then you can get those so anyway

we'll see you there thank you so very

much uh for being here bye the way if

you are a course member and you want to

get free access to the market live chat

so you could chat for free and you don't

have to be a green chatter uh you can

get a wrench when you join just leave a

comment on today's course member live

stream and say please wrench me bro I

always I will always wrench you we'll

see you in the next one thanks folks bye

good

luck these things that you told us here

I feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

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hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

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