why is the market suddenly crashing

hey everyone me Kevin here a lot of

folks are wondering why does it seem

like the market is suddenly selling off

again that has that going from positive

and a lot of the tech sector going from

positive to just all of a sudden

basically cratering straight down now

the nasdaq's down one percent again and

it just doesn't seem like it's on any

course of pausing or stopping anytime

soon Nvidia is down 4.4 Tesla's down 4.7

we don't know when it'll end even

Facebook is down 3.4 so what's going on

is this just a healthy pullback and

something you would expect after the

massive rally that we've had or is there

something bigger at play well let's

break down probably why the market is

pulling back slightly first we know that

a drum Powell after his fomc press

conference just a couple of weeks ago

indicated hey you know what we're not

only going to stay the course of higher

for longer but even though we've

previously suggested we might have

reached higher we might need to go even

higher higher and guess what's on

Wednesday well you might not actually

have it on your calendar yet I already

know you have Friday's date on your

calendar but you might not have

Wednesday's date on your calendar yet so

make sure you mark on Wednesday 9 30 a.m

that's right when the Market opens to 11

A.M Eastern Time 6 30 a.m to 8 A.M

Pacific time that is when Sarah Eisen

from CNBC will actually be hosting an

economic Forum where we will see

Christine Lagarde of the European

Central Bank Jerome Powell obviously the

FED Andrew Bailey will be there from the

bank of England and will have the bank

of Japan Governor there there now why is

this interesting

well it's fascinating because the bank

of England has no control over inflation

in fact Rishi is like hey you know we

support the bank of England and

everything should be good but yeah we

got an inflation problem in the United

Kingdom in fact inflation just hit its

highest level in in terms of core

inflation that we've seen in the last 40

years even after it was coming down it

just spiked up even higher this is a big

problem so in other words

Jerome Powell is going to be sitting

on a panel with a bunch of hawks who are

like yeah we gotta do a lot more

entertainment inflation and I have a

feeling that of the many reasons we're

going to go through in terms of why

markets are selling off now one of them

is Powell Powell speaking Wednesday

here's that chart by the way of Bank of

England inflation hitting a 31 year high

you could see that sort of right above

my head here that how it started going

down this is core inflation and then you

get this new Spike up yikes not great

so that's one reason you've got Powell

then on Friday you have two things going

on and there's even more going on but

Friday you've got the personal

consumption expenditure gauge coming out

that is the fed's preferred inflation

metric we are looking for a month over

month read of just point one percent

inflation a year-over-year read of 3.8

percent that will be down from 0.4 on

the month over month and 4.4 on the year

over year however core is expected to

move just from 0.4 to 0.3 and stay flat

for the year over year at four seven and

that sticky core is believed to take

potentially higher interest rates to

really push those core prices down since

higher interest rates generally affect

businesses more than they affect

individuals but businesses are the ones

that provide jobs and hire people and so

if you squeeze money out of businesses

maybe just maybe you could slow down

spending in the economy to finally deal

with inflation so pce will be coming out

Friday morning at 8 30 Eastern 5 30 a.m

uh yeah Pacific time I will be covering

that live at 7am we'll get the

University of Michigan's sentiment

surveys again in between now and then we

will also be getting a GDP report now I

want to give you the time frame for GDP

report and expectations but remember

Friday Friday night we've got an

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Friday as the prices will be going up

Friday as we release new lectures this

weekend so what's coming up else this

week well we've got GDP and another big

Catalyst we're going to talk about but

first on GDP we will have an annualized

GDP read coming out we are expecting a

1-4 read and the prior read was one

three so we're expecting that GDP to

show a little bit more strengthening you

have a little bit of a double-edged

sword here you want the GDP rate to be

higher because you don't want to be in

recession but you also don't want the

FED to continue to feel like they have

this runaway economy and they need to

keep hiking because then there's the

risk that the FED will over overdo it

the current estimate of the FED now real

GDP levels are that GDP for the United

States should be coming in at 1.9 that

is revised lower from where we have been

previously knocking on the door of three

percent in May so we've definitely seen

some softness here but well above that

zero level in fact there's a lot of talk

that residential real estate Investments

especially new construction home

building that actually pull us out of a

potential recession if we were to Trend

into one housing spending a new

construction could actually keep us out

of one pretty remarkable so we'll keep

an eye on those GDP numbers but in my

opinion what's really the big Catalyst

that everybody's kind of holding their

breath for and that's making everyone

nervous well honestly earnings make us

think about it everybody on one hand

it's like all right good the fed's gonna

stop hiking because you know they're

finally slowing things down and then the

fed's like JK we're actually not going

to stop hiking and then everybody's like

well fine we'll keep the rally going as

long as earnings are good oh

earnings season really starts on the

18th which is the third week in July so

it seems a little premature to really

start pricing in earnings for Q2 but I

kind of think you're getting this idea

from a lot of managers or even some

retail who are like look we did great

for the first half of the Year let's

take some money off the table and just

take some attendees and be happy that we

had a really good first half of the year

it's entirely possible I personally

think selling right now is kind of like

saying uh

we're done we don't care how long this

bull run goes say we're done okay I mean

I think you need a larger Catalyst than

just profit taking I mean I don't really

want to pay taxes but you know rather

ride ride the waves a little bit we

wrote them down in 2022 it's like this

should be a nothing burger for you but

anyway uh you've got CPI coming out on

July 12th and you've got the next uh

fomc meeting after earning start so

it'll be right in the thick of the

beginning of when you have this earnings

season but uh the fomc meeting is the

25th to the 26th so the press conference

will be on the 26th of July but uh Q2

earnings will start of course with the

banks Delta uh will actually come

slightly before that on the 13th but the

banks will start the week of the 18th so

you get your Morgan Stanley your Bank of

America with Tesla reporting earnings

were scheduled to report earnings on

July 23rd we're less than a month away

of that so if people wanted to correctly

position before earnings now would be a

natural time to do that especially as

you go into month end so it is possible

you can have a little bit of a rough

week going into the end of the month

here especially as we wait to get over

Jay pal here and as we get into earnings

that's when we'll be in the FED blackout

period but you'll be dealing with

earnings so that'll be the next Catalyst

to either keep us flat or down leading

into it or potentially down after

earnings

so it could be a reason to get out of

certain stocks before earnings and then

you don't have to worry about earnings

anymore although I feel like we just

went through earnings but we say that

every time so that's probably why you're

seeing some heart palpitations there

wasn't anything particularly uh crazy

that happened in markets today that all

of a sudden sent uh stocks lower other

than expectations that maybe the 10-year

is going to rise a little bit going into

July but beyond that expectation uh

there really was no news that came out

to indicate that stocks should be

selling off this I expect is likely and

highly because of the Catalyst that

we've mentioned here jpal this week then

this idea that Jay pal was willing to

tighten

meaning we are more reliant on earnings

and earnings around the corner which

means now we got to be like oh our

earnings actually going to justify that

rebound that we had off of the floor of

the end of 2022 so as always check out

the programs I'm building your wealth if

you're a long-term investor these

fluctuations should be buying

opportunities a chance for you to

increase your quantity of your favorite

shares if you're really nervous about

seeing your year-to-date return go down

uh then you're trading and that's okay

and that might be an opportunity for for

you to say yeah let's lock in profits

anyway thanks so much for watching and

we'll see in the next one bye now I want

you to know this when it comes to AI

time is what's going to make you money

and if you can prove that value to an

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