The BTC-Gold Ratio Just Hit Support — And History Says a Major Regime Shift Is Coming

Let's talk Bitcoin. Let's talk Bitcoin

after what happened with gold. And uh

we're not talking about gold.

Uh we're not really talking about

Bitcoin here. We are talking about

power. And let me explain because when

you divide Bitcoin by gold, you are no

longer measuring price. You are

measuring which monetary system is

winning.

And the chart you are looking at right

now ask one simple dangerous question.

Did the BTC

Bitcoin to gold ratio just find

long-term support?

These are the type of questions that we

ask on this channel. And by supporting

it, you support my effort and you

support me helping you

better understand what is going on in

this market.

I want you to understand what is going

on in the market. I want you to be

educated.

What do I want? I want you to realize

that it's not about making money in the

stock market. It's about not losing any.

And the second important fact that you

need to realize is that whenever they

tell you what is happening, for example,

the situation with gold and then they're

tying it up to the fact that we have a

new Fed chair.

You say, "Well, looks like gold was

impacted by the Fed chair because he

might be tougher and stronger with the

dollar. therefore enhancing the dollar.

But that's purely correlation. Okay? But

let's just remember that correlation is

not causation. And just because they say

so doesn't mean it's so.

So

let us uh continue

and talk a little bit more about this

chart which I find quite interesting I

must say.

Um so essentially what we're doing as

usual we're looking at a ratio. We're

dividing the Bitcoin to gold.

And I guess we're asking the question,

did the BTC to gold ratio just find a

long-term support? If the answer is yes,

then the next phase of markets will not

look like the last one. And if the

answer is no, then crypto is facing a

much deeper reckoning than most

investors are prepared for.

So

there are two panels. Let's let's

understand what we're looking at.

Um the top panel, the blue line is the

Bitcoin price

and the gold line is the gold price.

This is not the main event. Okay, the

real story is the bottom panel.

The red line is the Bitcoin price in

ounces of gold,

which we removes the dollar entirely. So

when this ratio rises, as you could see

in the square red boxes, Bitcoin is

outperforming gold as a monetary asset.

When it falls, gold is reclaiming

dominance.

This is this is pure monetary

competition chart,

not a CPI, there's no net earning, just

store of value versus

store of value.

We're now focused on the two red boxes

highlighted on the chart.

The first red box covers 2020 to 2021.

That was the era of global money

printing, fiscal dominance,

zero rates, peak liquidity. Bitcoin

absolutely obliterated gold

destroyed it. The BTC to gold ratio

exploded higher as investors chase

asymmetric upside and fled monetary

discipline.

Remember Bitcoin? Then then came the

collapse from late 2021 to 2022. The

ratio unwaned violently. Why?

Because liquidity was withdrawn. This is

a concept that we're going to have to go

over a couple of times with the idea

that Bitcoin is driven by liquidity.

We'll do a video on that, too. So, at

that time, rates rose and suddenly

volatility was no longer free.

Now, look at the second rate box, the

one that's more of interest to us. 2024

to 2025.

The pattern is disturbingly familiar.

Bitcoin surges again.

narratives return, ETF flows explode,

and momentum traders pile in. And once

again, the ratio rolls over. Same

behavior,

same psychology,

different macro backdrop.

Now we get to the most important feature

of the chart,

the green dashed trend line.

This is a multi-year rising support line

in the BTC to gold ratio stretching back

nearly a decade.

Every time the ratio collapses into this

zone,

seller pressure exhausts, volatility

compresses, and a decision point

emerges. We are not sitting directly on

that trend line.

This is a structure. We're not noises,

right? So markets do not respect lines

because traders draw them. They respect

them because capital reacts there. And

historically when this level breaks and

holds it defines entire market regimes.

So

three

scenarios from here.

Scenario one the ratio holds.

If BTC to gold holds it support,

Bitcoin resumes leadership. Now,

obviously, as as since it's Bitcoin over

over gold, right? As gold dropped,

um

inflation. So, so Bitcoin resumes

leadership that the risk assets regain

dominance and liquidity conditions

quietly improve. This would imply that

inflation is politically tolerated, real

rates stop rising and monetary

discipline remains absent.

This is what you call a speculative

regime continuation outcome.

The scenario two, the ratio breaks.

If this support fails, gold massively

outperforms Bitcoin, which has been the

case in the past, and volatility

premiums collapse. Capital rotates

towards stability. This would signal

that real rates matter again. Liquidity

is constrained and monetary trust is

questioned.

That would be what you call a defensive

regime shift. And of course the third

one is the grind most dangerous scenario

where the ratio chops sideways. Both

assets rise but gold rises faster.

Bitcoin loses narrative power without

crashing.

This is how bubbles die quietly. So

this ratio is not about crypto. It's

about the trust in the central banks,

the acceptance of inflation,

the tolerance of volatility, and the

cost of capital. I know it's a lot to

think about

because Bitcoin thrives when liquidity

is abundant. As we have seen what's

happening with Bitcoin right now,

liquidity is not so abundant for

Bitcoin. Policy credibility is weak and

risk is underpriced.

and gold thrives when you know thrust

erodess volatility rises and capital

preservations dominates.

So what's interesting you don't need to

understand everything I'm saying but

basically you know the BTC to go ratio

tells which psychological state the

market is in

right now it's a fragile equilibrium.

So what do serious investors you know

investors do here? Don't forget to

subscribe and to give us a like. We do

not chase, we do not nar, you know,

narratives. We do not and but we do not

ignore the ratios.

Watch the trend line. Watch the slope.

Watch the reaction.

If the BTC to gold bounces back

convincingly, risk appetite survives.

But if it breaks, gold is not done. The

crypto beta will disappoint and

volatility will repric.

So

this chart will lead headlines but not

follow them.

Um this is again another regime call and

you could see that in that chart. It's

important for you to to to

understand that

because what it does it shows you a

a shift a psychological shift. So let's

let's

Let's go over that point one more time

so that you understand what um

what this psychological

state the market is in.

It it basically we're looking at the BTC

which is Bitcoin over gold. And what

we're seeing is that the trust in the

central banks, the acceptance of

inflation, the tolerance of volatility

is one side and on the other side you've

got liquidity is abundant, policy

credibility is weak and risk is

underpriced and you kind of have at the

end of the day you you you the liquidity

is is not so abandoned for the Bitcoin

while is policy credibility weak.

We shall see. Um, is risk underpriced?

And this is always the thing that

bothers me is that people that join as

members also and I tell that to my

members. I I come to members every day

um between 8 and 9:00 and say, "Okay,

this is what's happening today." And a

lot of them join because they say,

"Well, what shall I do?" You know,

where's the market going to do next?

what's going to happen. That's the wrong

approach. What you need to do is you

need to understand you may not

understand everything and that's okay.

Tell that to my investors and to my to

my students. Um I I tell them the same

thing but you're not supposed to

understand everything but you're

supposed to grasp what's going on the

psychology

of the market. meaning that you're not

supposed to know what's causing it. No

one knows. You know, I always listen to

the social media, but some of the

channels um uh on cable and Bloomberg

and all these guys, and they invite all

these people over and because they want,

they know the people want to know what

do you think is going to happen. But if

these people knew what was going to

happen,

they would do it for themselves and they

wouldn't be here trying to make a bug

trying to tell you what's going to

happen. Right? So the idea is it's quite

simple actually. You're not here to make

money. You're here not to lose any.

That's the most important thing. And the

second thing is don't assume because on

one hand they show you oh look gold went

down and look what happened to the new

guy that came in

the the well he hasn't come in yet but

the new Fed chair he's going to be

tough. He's going to he's going to be

strong for the dollar. So therefore

really it's that simple. Well he came in

and gold went down. they went down. So,

you know, maybe that's it. It's like

saying that it's basically saying like

uh um

that the cholesterol causes heart

attack.

That's basically the same thing. Look

into it, by the way.