The Market Crash might get Much Worse | Details...

well folks the good ol might be upon us

why because of a stupid cargo ship

getting stuck in a canal

why would i be so pissed off about it

because what have we been talking about

on this channel we've been talking about

well obviously the market's going nuts

this

massive fear over oh no bond yields have

gone

up

short-term increase in the bond yields

means maybe inflation's coming and we

should just sell everything and rotate

over to recovery stocks we're just

out of everything because inflation's

come

we all think so at least i certainly

think it's a bunch of fugazi

whatever that this uh inflation

long-term inflation is coming i don't

think it is

in fact i think over the next uh

inflation readings will continue to have

lower and lower readings in fact guess

what came in today

the personal consumption expenditure is

reading and it came in one

one tenth of one percent lower than

expected for inflation and this is the

data that the fed uses

we like to hear of cpi the consumer

price index well this is the personnel

consumption expenditures index it's kind

of the same thing

basically came in lower than expected

month over month

which is good this is kind of what we're

expecting in fact the

next cpi data release comes out here

on it looks like april 13th at

8 30 a.m and we're looking forward to

that cpi data coming in

lower month over month to show like hey

month over month we're not seeing

inflation nothing to be worried about

now we know that the cpi doesn't account

for everything we know that there are a

lot of hidden forms of inflation

like obviously look at asset prices

stocks real estate lumber there are lots

of things that are going up

through the moon but a lot of these

things have to do with supply chain

issues

and guess what just got a whole lot more

freaking bad

folks supply chain issues why because

there's a freaking ship

stuck in the suez canal doing nothing

because its bow is stuck 30 feet

under the floor of the canal and it

can't move and now they're talking about

maybe this will take like 10 days to

move

this is a this is much more of a crisis

the longer this goes on

than it appears why because guess what

happens it's not just that freaking ship

it's all of the other ones i can't use

the canal

if you can't use that canal to go from

the red sea to the

mediterranean sea you can't get goods

and supplies from india

and china through the middle east and

up the mediterranean into europe and

then wherever on from there

you can't you got to literally go around

africa

again i go all the way around i mean

this is they see an ad somewhere around

6

000 miles to the trip and it already

takes forever for these container ships

to get around they're not exactly the

fastest things i mean i think they drive

it like 14 knots

which 6 thousand miles uh adds a a lot

of time uh let's just do

the math really quick here you get six

thousand miles divided by fourteen

uh and that might even be generous

that's 428

hours uh divided by 24 hours in a day

you just added 18 days you just added

three weeks

to your commute time to some of these

products that's kooky crazy

because guess what's not just on this

kind of ship but the other ships

well food uh certainly like commodities

like coffee

no not like fresh stuff obviously

uh but food commodities iron ore

chips computer parts things that we need

right now

things that the world is like yo we need

more of please

we we want to buy more because real

estate prices are so high

computer you know we want more computers

we want to invest

let's buy stuff let's get a new gaming

computer let's buy more or mine more

bitcoin or ethereum or whatever right or

build more cars i mean look at neo

shutting down their facility for five

days because they can't get their hands

on enough chips

and they're in semiconductorville

imagine how the rest of the world feels

when all of a sudden you get supply

chains oh sorry

add three weeks to your commute there

yeah oops

so what is why is this potentially

really bad

so my expectation here uh has been

that we're gonna see lower month over

month inflation data that's going to

come though

despite the fact that we're going to see

larger substantially higher

year-over-year inflation data that's

because we were in a pit last in the

pandemic in march

so it makes sense year over year it's

going to look it's going to look rough

you know and i kind of wrote down over

here that i wouldn't be surprised

if year over year our inflation comes in

around 2.4 percent for march

around 3.5 to 3.3 in april and may and

then we go back down those are kind of

the numbers that i'm working with my

projections uh they're gonna be bad

you're over here but we don't really

care i mean

we shouldn't really care about that

number some people are gonna be freaked

out because the media is gonna

oh my gosh i just three percent

you know but but uh the big thing is

gonna be that month-over-month data well

guess what all this crap here with the

suez canal could do

it could literally jack up inflation

because not only

is freight going to get more expensive

but everything is going to get delayed

which means people who want their stuff

sooner

are potentially going to be willing to

pay a premium for it if those prices

get passed on to the consumer which they

very likely will guess where they'll

show up

consumer price index yes we can

literally see

bad inflation for march

because of this crap because a ship got

stuck

oh my gosh like what were they doing so

this creates a giant

cluster of problems because now

you have hedges and the funds the suits

going okay cool we did our rotation for

the quarter great you know

recorder's coming to a close this is our

last friday of the quarter

uh all right are we good we rotate

enough now you get this problem coming

up

it's possible that hedges and suits

could get even more defensive

and try to get out of higher multiple

stocks even more

monday tuesday wednesday of next week

now i hope not

you know i'm looking for good catalysts

here the problem is all we have right

now is a

bad catalyst and that catalyst literally

screams

i'm causing inflation like every time

you see a picture of that ship

on a newspaper just think inflation

now that's the that's bad obviously

right that's bad there's no good news

about that

now is that not going to ask you okay is

that long-term inflation or is it

short-term inflation we talk about this

all the time on the channel obviously

it's short-term right

supply chain constraints are short-term

issues in the stock market

which means you have to bear through the

house of pain that much longer

which means if you need basically what's

now a mental health support group

for your stocks and the psychology of

money

make sure you take advantage of that 38

off coupon code expiring today

so you too can get support but anyway

obviously every single day we have a

live stream where we talk and it's not

just a support group

but the point here is folks that ship

could very likely unless this gets

broken free this weekend

could very likely cause a spike in

inflation on a month-to-month basis

that could potentially lead the bond

market to freak out again

sell off on the bonds sends yields up

yields go up

if they go up too quickly then the stock

market's like whoa

that was too quick of a jolt you know

the acceleration of rates going up

i made an analogy earlier on the live

stream it's kind of like imagine you're

driving a car

you're going 65 miles an hour uh you

know if somebody slowly steps on the gas

a little bit and you get from 65

miles an hour to 80 miles an hour and

you're in the back seat you don't really

notice

you don't notice the creep of bond

yields potentially right

but if you're at 65 miles an hour and

somebody's in a p 100 model

x and they floor it and you zip up to 90

or even 80 but you just do so very

quickly

you notice because you're like whoa yeah

the same thing

that has happened could potentially

continue

with this kind of news like i was

literally hoping for hey that's fine

we got no news it's fine things will

settle down

people get over this whole bond yield

started going up big deal it was bound

to happen anyway

it's something you could have easily

seen coming not a big deal

but it came a little too fast and it's

been pretty volatile

and now we got a ship stuck in the str

you can't make this stuff up you can't

make this stuff up so what what are we

thinking what's the bottom line

well the bottom line is you got to be

prepared this is

even though as fun it is to buy the dip

and as fun as it is for me to go yay we

just put 500k

into a big buy the dip stock uh that uh

that i'm excited about i have high

conviction in

uh maybe we'll do it again i don't know

we'll see we also at the same time

gotta be a little careful because and i

know this this kind of sounds like

contradictory it's like how could you be

careful if you just invested this and

gave everybody your high conviction

report in the course link down below

like how does that make sense well i

might have pretty high conviction

that we are not going to see long-run

inflation and

that we are going to w-shape recovery

out of this

but i also could not have predicted a

stupid ship getting

stuck in a canal causing potentially

inflation fears to ramp up

i think all of this will clear i really

believe that once we get out of this

crappy march month

we get out of quarterly rebalancing we

finally realize that no worries like

things can be okay as bonds recover

all is going to be okay that's one of

the reasons i keep investing

i'm not panic selling i have not sold

anything

since february 16th and trust me

everybody who's buying the dip gets that

feeling of like

oh it's just just keeps dipping oh

it's like i'm putting money in the fire

pit it just just keeps going

yeah i don't know i hear you

stay strong and stay true to what you

believe

will matter 10 years from now ask

yourself how old are you now

whatever how old you are right now add

30 years to it do you think we're gonna

look back and go

oh i remember all that hyperinflation we

saw in 2021

no no it's all gonna be fine

problem is right now it doesn't feel

fine because the weenie babies

are all rotating out of stuff that

matters but not only are the weenie

babies

rotating out of stuff because they can't

handle it but they're

also exacerbating the problem setting

stop losses

trying to sell at the bottom these are a

bunch of paper-hander

bears it's bad bad

true hodlers make money through these

times this is when the money is made

when there's pain what do people always

say be fearful when people are greedy

and be greedy when people are fearful

what do you think people are right now

they're fearful okay so deduce

and remember very very very important

when prices go

down you are de-risking you're taking

risk out

of the balloons so to speak you know a

really inflated balloon

is very fragile very likely to

whereas a balloon that's only like like

if you had a normal balloon that was

like this

and the balloons kind of like this it's

like really soft and spongy and you can

kind of like

boom you know hit your face on it or

whatever

punch it if you want it holds up a

little more

that's not going to say we're not going

to see further declines because this

stupid ship thing here

if it weren't for this ship i'd be a lot

more optimistic but

you know i i want to believe that our w

is going to occur

we're going to see a recovery over the

next few weeks usually these corrections

last about six weeks

we just finished like uh this is week

five we just finished week five

so potentially we could see some more

volatility next week especially because

of the ship on top of that

but uh buckle up stay strong and folks

we're gonna get to the other end of this

all right thank you so much for watching

use that coupon code down below and

folks

we'll see you next one

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