Trump Denied. Prepare for Worse. | Meet Kevin Report 4 [Jan 9]

the Federal Reserve says they're done

bankruptcies are skyrocketing and the

New York Times borrowed my joke about

Trump buying Greenland when we talked

about Greenland being an age of empire

style

play the New York Times says Trump

Echoes Age of Empire ah also Alec

Baldwin just sued after a judge

dismissed the case against Alec Baldwin

for the onset shooting during the

filming of rust Alec has filed a

malicious prosecution law suit for what

he went through here's the thing though

all I'll know about this case is that I

will always stand behind Alec Baldwin

the Supreme Court has denied stepping in

to stop the New York sentencing hearing

scheduled for Friday in the Donald Trump

hush money fraud case so it looks like

we'll be getting that sentencing

tomorrow I suspect in my opinion it'll

be something like time served or

$69,000 of penalties

tomorrow morning we'll also be getting

job data and there's a chance by the

time you're watching this meet Kevin

report news that makes you money the

jobs data could already be out so let's

hit the jobs data and updates on the

California fires which the New York Post

calls

H and some micro updates on specific

companies like Tesla GameStop what's

going on with the Lincoln Riley act

politics and much more as well as even

some comments on bitcoin so jobs data

comes out and like I said you may have

already gotten the jobs data by the time

you're watching this video we've been

looking for a 165,000 Job release it

comes out at 5:30 a.m. California time

Friday morning the last month's report

came in at 227 so we would be looking

for anything honestly probably above 130

would be good for markets to try to

sustain some of their growth uh and not

too big of a revision for last month's

data would be nice as well that could

stay above 200 fantastic since usually

we get revised down Goldman Sachs isn't

as optimistic they say that the labor

market is the clearest potential

fundamental downside risk their words

big words there to the economy Goldman

is looking for just

125,000 jobs to print and they're

worried that the jobs report could miss

under that but if we beat they say that

hedge funds and institut might actually

be underexposed to the market right now

so do I hear Moon anyway 2025 fomc

pricing for Ray Cuts should be the most

reactive to this Friday jobs report says

Goldman and the report will be joined by

the annual seasonal revisions to the

household survey which are usually minor

but could end up propping up the

unemployment rate and remember if that

unemployment rate takes up a good chunk

again we could end up in a position

where we end up re-triggering that SU

rule which we ended up triggering in

August and then UNT triggering so I

guess we'll see what happens but my

opinion is this January report should be

pretty benign it's usually not until we

end up getting to the releases that come

out in February March or April which

actually represent q1 layoffs

potentially that we tend to start seeing

issues layoff rates so far are still

pretty low and we're not seeing really

big announcements of layoffs so fingers

crossed that the economy can keep

booming jobs are what's keeping it going

the market so far is convinced that the

Federal Reserve is going to pause in

January Michelle Bowman who desentedents

rates are actually very close to their

longer run neutral level it's the first

time we've heard the Federal Reserve say

that and fed officials say policy is in

a good place yes the 10year treasury at

5% with the 27 we unemployment rate

skyrocketing leaves policy in a good

place anyway maybe the Federal Reserve

is right after all the stock market has

been skyrocketing to the strongest year

in 2024 that we have seen since 19 28

1928 is characterized by that year where

everybody started investing in stocks

because you just couldn't lose

money don't ask what happened after

another thing to keep in mind is that

bankruptcy filings are starting to

rotate up again if you look at the black

line here you can see bankruptcy filings

actually peaked over here in

2023 they started falling at the

beginning of 24 but have started to

resume their upward trend

now credit spreads remain really low

which is basically the difference

between uh less risky and more riskier

forms of debt and zeroedge and Bloomberg

both together make the argument that you

can't end up having this Detachment from

the fundamentals of more and more

bankruptcies not end up affecting risk

spreads for much longer so in other

words something might end up breaking uh

in this market sooner than people

suspect who knows though markets have a

tendency to be well to do their thing

for longer than people think the front

page of the USA Today today complained

about tariffs and the uncertainty of

Donald Trump along with Justin Trudeau

of Canada warning that tariffs will

raise prices for everyone to which uh

Elon Musk has already argued that quote

girl you ain't the governor of Canada

anymore in response to pretty much

anything Trudeau says on X so I don't

know how much people really care anymore

given that Trudeau has announced his

resignation once the liberal party in

Canada assumes a new leader Bloomberg

intelligence notes that that US Stocks

have traded at a record premium compared

to the rest of the world and still sit

at that record premium they also suggest

though that maybe there's a reason for

that such as strong fundamentals that

the mags have it look at AWS for example

they think AWS at Amazon could hit 20%

of Amazon's sales in 2025 well above

estimates and F serve which collects

point of sale transaction data like when

you go buy ad Macy's they kind of run

the little Terminals and the registers F

serve suggests that sales data shows a

particular surge in Footwear and apparel

in the fourth

quarter on some Micro Data I did notice

today that GameStop's cash has

absolutely

exploded uh in the last two quarters of

2024 quite remarkably actually when you

look at the cash balances over at

GameStop you could see that they're

sitting on over 4 .19 billion of cash

that's up from $921 million at the

beginning of 2024 and their liabilities

actually decreased now yes they did in

part issue shares to reach this about 80

million shares had been issued in 2024

uh so yes there was a fund raise but the

point is GameStop is now selling for

just a little over three times cash

value the company also generated a net

in income in its last earnings report

though it's worth noting that that was

only because of interest income they did

actually have a slightly larger

operating loss than they did at the end

of last year so the operating loss was

only $22 million which is a drop in the

bucket compared to the 4.1 billion

dollars that they have and a lot of

people say that GameStop presents a lot

of option opportunities and I'm not

talking about like YOLO calls and puss

talking about optionality in terms of

what they could potentially pull off in

a turnaround story with the lease

contracts and basically rights that they

have to locations around the country

especially around entertainment areas

and malls GameStop currently trades at

$14.7

billion and recently broke $30 per share

Elon Musk said in an interview that

humanoid robots will be the biggest

product ever with and that ultimately

every single human will end up wanting

some will end up wanting one some people

might end up wanting two and we could

end up being in an environment of

universal High income rather than basic

income because there will be 20 to 30

billion humanoid robots doing whatever

we want and Elon says it's unclear what

money means at that point after Donald

Trump became elected and even leading

into his election Bond flows for the

popular TLT bond market fund have hit

their worst

outflows

ever yes as people B on a second wave of

inflation inflation uncertainty from

Trump and a fed that's convinced that

inflation is more of an issue that is

the insur the Resurgence of inflation is

more of an issue than the jobs Market

well you're well primed to be in a

position of bonds sucking until of

course everybody wants them but that

means you're heading into a recession

it's probably not good Albertson talks

about uh cutting $1.5 billion in costs

over the next 3 years these Cuts will

include GNA Cuts Warehouse automation

trying to get to 30% automated uh in

their warehouses by 2030 talking about

offshoring using technology Ai and

productivity enhancements all to me

euphemisms for ways of saying hey we're

going to uh cut jobs this is after the

Kroger merger fell through but

deanza is hiring about 10,000 employees

in 2025 that sounds really good and I

like hearing that especially for an

economy well you know they're based out

of Germany especially for a country like

Germany where you've got a little bit of

a poopy doopy going on in the economy

over there uh one of your leaders of the

European Union usually likely in

recession uh I mean already technically

in recession but likely in a deeper

recession than is even considered uh but

deut lansa is hiring fewer employees

than they hired last year they hired

13,000 last year so 10,000 this year is

actually a reduction in the hiring and

they're still net down from where they

were preco it is bullish on high Hing

though it's nice to see if they were

seeing red flags for the economy

especially while Germany is in recession

you probably wouldn't see this

bullishness on hiring so I kind of like

seeing this as something that does

contribute to the soft Landing

narrative Jensen from Nvidia says that

Blackwell is shipping in autonomous

vehicles will be the first trillion

dollar robotics Market some are already

speculating on nvidia's next chip Reuben

for

2025 and right now the focus from

institutions is can they continue to

sell to Amazon Microsoft meta and Google

to keep the dollar hollas going at the

same time China is questioning an

economist and potentially silencing an

economist from speaking indefinitely to

the public after they questioned China's

ability to get to 5% GDP in 2025 and

spoke against the reliability of Chinese

data at a conference in China that was

also streamed on YouTube yikes worth

noting that China will also be sending a

highlevel Envoy to the Trump

inauguration coming up the uh meta there

was a small note about meta in the

financial times this morning I mean it

was a whole page but anyway uh about

meta basically giving people a pass from

contact content moderation if they spent

money advertising with meta this was

considered a guard rail because they

thought the damage of accidentally

moderating somebody that was trying to

spend money on Advertising would end up

doing more damage to their business

that's meta's argument others argue that

know this is pay to play and if you

don't want to get censored just pay Mark

Zuckerberg who potentially was wearing a

$900,000 watch when he said we're going

to copy X and use Community

notes financial times has reporting that

Samsung's last earnings missed

expectations due to an overs supply of

memory chip uh losses in contract

manufacturing and delays in producing

specific memory chips for NVIDIA

somewhat surprised by that since a lot

of people really really bullish on

memory

chips when it comes to politics and

we'll hit fires in just a moment when it

comes to politics the Lincoln RI act

received 84 uh votes in the Senate

passing nine Senate Democrats including

Sanders Brooker Kim Mary Warren uh

Merkley uh what else we have here H Hino

no I'm going to mess that up hero h i r

o n o her Ono shots and Smith all voted

no Schumer ended up using the passage of

this to talk about the pledge to bring

down inflation and deliver results for

Working Families which doesn't really

have anything to do with the Lincoln

Riley act the Lincoln Riley act gives

law enforcement greater powers to detain

unauthorized or undocumented immigrants

who are accused of crimes and it also

forces ice that's US Customs and

enforcement to take over detainments and

actually deal with these individuals

rather than washing their hands of

undocumented immigrants who are

committing crimes in local environments

and Ice simply says nah man that's not

our problem that's your problem the

Lincoln Riley Act is designed to solve

that given the Immigrant killing of

Lincoln Riley hence the naming of the

act now I looked at the ex profiles for

people like Warren and Sanders and I

couldn't find a post or even though they

were posting about other things I

couldn't find a reason why they voted no

against this act seems a little weird

especially since it's slam dunk through

the house and it just slam dunked

through the

Senate well Mexico will also now enable

a Panic application or notification

system for those fearing deportation

under Donald Trump to let Mexican

officials and their relatives know that

is the relatives of those panicking uh

that they are potentially being deported

shine bomb views migrants as Heroes and

says she will not leave them behind at

the same time Donald Trump slams Jimmy

Carter for giving the Panama Canal away

despite the United States's h in

building it and suggests that China now

runs it and it's time for America to

start controlling the Panama Canal again

uh rather than China being able to

control it now technically it's

controlled by Panama but Donald Trump

says that China is effectively in

control now it is interesting because he

argues that Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in

the 1980 presidential election because

Carter gave away the Panem Canal there

were many more reasons for this but it

is worth noting that rean ended up

beating Carter in a landslide in 1980

489 electoral votes for Reagan to just

49 for Carter Carter had attacked Reagan

as too old and as somebody who couldn't

be trusted with the nuclear codes and

Carter was 13 years younger at the time

but still lost now when it comes to

California fires there's a lot here so

let's hit it all La Unified Schools and

offices will be closed tomorrow winds

picked up again late Thursday leading to

not just the sunset fire yesterday which

some people suspect may have been caused

by arson which would be terrible because

it really devastated Hollywood yesterday

but multiple new brush fires also took

place today including the West Hills

fire this afternoon costs of the fire

are now expected to surpass $20 billion

per JP Morgan though the Wall Street

Journal and Morgan Stanley claim that

these costs could actually exceed 50 to

57 billion which would represent about

2% of our country's annual gross

domestic product Joe Rogan says

California has spent $24 billion on

homeless prevention last year versus

what for fires his guest didn't really

have any clue when it came to numbers uh

at least in the clip that's virally

circulating but it is worth noting that

look California has massive problems

that's why I ran against Gavin new for

governor but Joe Rogan the number is

wrong California spent $24 billion on

homelessness since

2019 now that's still very bad but it's

different than Joe Rogan saying Oh

California spent $24 billion on

homelessness last year it works out to

about $4.8 billion that California is

spending on homelessness per year since

2019 and look they haven't actually

gotten that far in progress and I would

argue they've actually potentially made

things worse and this is in part why

you're seeing people like chamath

haladia the Spa King demanding a recall

of Gavin Newsome for the management of

this uh fire in Los Angeles but you know

just so you could hear it yourself uh

and then we'll go through what the

actual fire department budget is for uh

the Los Angeles Fire Department and the

state of California listen to Joe R

about the Wildfire situation and how

crazy it is that they spent 24 billion

dollars last year on the homeless yeah

and what do they spend on preventing

these wildfires Zer Z zip zip and in 200

okay it's also not true that they spent

zip but I get where they're going with

this okay yes California spends a

disproportionate amount of money on

homelessness and less on Fires they

spend about $6 on homelessness for every

dollar they spend on Fires Cal's budget

last year was about $770 million that's

the state version Los Angeles spent

about $900 Million last year so even if

you combine those it's still a fraction

of what California is spending on

homelessness so I agree with both of

them them on the sentiment like

California sucks and they don't know how

to solve homelessness they fail at

spending money on homelessness they

squander the money that they collect

from insane taxes in California it's why

I ran for governor in California on the

premise of removing taxes for those

making under $250,000 but the government

just spends so much on wasteful things

that could just be cut and if you

properly allocate it to schools and fire

and new tax revenues from things like a

gambling by letting people have a choice

in doing what they want you'd have even

more money to other issues like your

Mental Health crisis which could Circle

back and solve your homeless crisis but

nobody actually wants to use logic here

and that is what it is hopefully the

winds will die down tomorrow and it

really can't come soon enough because

there's still a lot of pain with these

fires that are still spreading we're

still at 0% containment uh there are

reports of law enforcement stopping

potentially private water trucks from

circulating through neighborhoods

specifically from Ross Gerber before I

get into day three of firefighting we

need some help getting private water

trucks into the Palisades the police are

literally stopping water trucks this is

on Gavin

Nome there are a lot of reports that

even those who lean left are really

pissed off at Gavin Newsome and it's

accelerated by the fact that you kind of

had Gavin Nome get uh I'd say a little

bit ambushed almost I was really

surprised Gavin nome's security detail

didn't stop this who knows maybe it was

uh planned but you have this person

govern govern that was my daugh it just

doesn't please tell me what you're going

to do for I'm not going to hurt him I

promise I'm literally talking to the

president right now to specifically

answer the question of what we can do

for you and your daughter can I hear it

can I hear your call cuz I don't believe

it I'm sorry there's literally I've

tried five times that's why I'm walking

around to make the call so he just said

I'm literally talking to the president

right now which first of all I don't

believe that you're actually talking to

Biden on the phone and then when the

lady's like yeah can you show me because

I don't believe you oh I actually don't

have service right now that's why I'm

walking

around nice the governor can't even

figure out how to get service on his

phone or to stay in contact with the

president you'd think they'd have a way

to figure this out you know there are

things called sat phones that work and

government has access to them there are

also way

to have multiple Sims on your phone so

if one of your carriers is down you have

potentially two other carriers you could

use who knows maybe for Gavin usum all

the carriers just happen to be down and

this is just a stroke of bad luck for

gavan usum but honestly there's finally

something I agree with Chom spack on

which is gavan usum has got to go there

are uh now a lot of reports also of

looting potentially 20 looters being

apprehended for basically After People

evacuate uh people are running in trying

to steal from empty houses uh there are

also videos circulating uh where people

are like oh my gosh look there are

looters on video on camera uh walking

out of of houses with things I I think

it's a little hard to say that people

are casually walking out of homes with

things and that they're looting it is L

possible that these people actually live

here uh so you know I do worry

that this is just these are just normal

people trying to save whatever

possessions they can but of course

social media says oh they're black

that's it they're

looters so I think it's important not to

rush to judgment uh however there are

looters uh and looting is a problem so

there have been 20 looters that have

been captured we don't have the identity

of those looters yet uh it's also worth

noting that the devastation is pretty

bad in California when it comes to what

the Pacific Palisades look like and it's

all sort of I hate to use this reference

but people are adding fuel to the fire

by reiterating the discussion we had

yesterday about the Dei problems at the

LA fire department now that this

marketing video came out from the LA

Fire Department and it just doesn't look

good for the LA fire department because

it shows you

basically somebody who maybe was hired

with lower standards than what a male

firefighter would have to go through

basically saying I don't need to carry

somebody out of a house because it's

your problem you got stuck in a house on

fire I don't know if this was supposed

to be

funny but it's not you want to see

somebody that responds to your house

your emergency whether whether it's a

medical call or a fire call that looks

like you it gives that person a little

bit more ease knowing that somebody

might understand their situation better

is she strong enough to do this or you

couldn't carry my husband out of a fire

which my response is he got himself in

the wrong place if I have to carry him

out of a

[Music]

fire you want to see some

yeah

okay the LA time thinks that uh La uh

and Los Angelos just need to deal with

fires this is uh the California edition

of the LA times today and uh if you pop

in to the bottom of the California

Section right here you're going to find

somebody that gives you a little bit of

their opinion on what it means when you

live in California this LA Times writer

says wildfires are just part of the

compromise of living in

California ah okay got it it's a

compromise not to have water in our fire

hydrant got it it's a compromise to pay

the head of the Department of power and

water or water and power

$751,000

so we have water in our fire hydrants in

case there's a damn fire but hey I guess

I just have to live with that as the

compromise of getting to live in

California and having the privil of

paying more than half of the income I

make in taxes got it thanks Steve Lopez

of the LA Times you just really helped

me with perspective that obviously I was

missing which I guess does bring up the

Department of Water and Power Janice

konz uh was given a $751,000 salary

which is 72% more than the person who

was previously the head of the

department who retired before her to run

the Department of Water and Power some

people say because she's a minority

other people say because no no no no the

department of Wilder and power just

needs to be able to attract private

sector talent and we weren't going to

attract her unless we paid her almost a

3/4 of a million dollar

salary right smells like Corruption of

course she was at a press conference and

very professionally told us that we

couldn't fill the tanks fast enough that

water consumption was faster than we

could fill the tanks that basically load

up the fire hydrants with water and

water pressure and there were three

periods of time that water failed we

tried to keep bringing the water up to

higher altitudes but we were not able to

do that above the Brentwood area the

East Side the Lower Side was still

functioning very well but there were

various periods of time where

unfortunately the fire hydrants just

went dry this is something that's

happened before we talked about this

yesterday as well in the Thomas fire uh

we we have known this oh by the way

here's some Drone footage I was looking

for this uh we have known

that uh higher elevation areas suffer in

fires because pumps fail and then

there's no water pressure but we have

known this quite frankly for decades but

certainly at least since the Thomas fire

of 2017 we should have been able to

learn our lessons that we need backup

generators and we need more water flow

but what are you going to do there is a

rumor that some of the uh fire hydrant

testing was delayed because of budget

constraints

from uh the County of Los Angeles I

didn't actually find a way to validate

this so I just want to say that this is

unverifiable but I literally Googled

this notice like word for word which

usually if you word for word something

you can find it this person says any

reason why LA County failed to test

their fire hydrants in the week before

this fire started well they do the

hydrant test at the beginning of each

year and hydrant tests don't necessarily

mean the Department of Water and Power

is going to give you enough water but I

asked the person for a link and they

never replied so I don't know if this is

true but it does sort of go into The

Narrative of California sucks and since

that's the popular thing to talk about

today that's what people are retweeting

anyway uh there are now 180,000

individuals under evacuation orders well

actually technically all 10 million

people in Los Angeles County are under

an evacuation order because someone at

the emergency department that sends

these uh evacuation alerts accidentally

sent the alert to all 10 million people

in Los Angeles to evacuate now but that

was actually a mistake it was only

supposed to go to a certain area and

they screwed up and fat fingered and

sent it to everyone

instead anyway you'd think somebody

would like double check before these

things get sent but anyway the good news

is there is a basketball player who says

that Bitcoin still has room to run and

you shouldn't paper hand because the

institutions are just trying to shake

you out and I always think it's

important to see what people not in the

financial industry are talking about

when it comes to investing just so you

could kind of know where you are in

timing of a bubble or in the timing of

of of a bubble but Scotty

Pimpin Major League Bas uh basketball

actually not Major League Baseball

basketball uh says hey they want your

Bitcoin they want your crypto don't get

get shaken out all right see what the

NBA thinks about that bear trap on top

of that some people are talking about

the Department of Justice now holding

$6.5 billion of Bitcoin that was seized

from the Silk Road some say there's a

risk the Department of Justice will sell

all of this at once Donald Trump says

he'll hold it in treasury the Department

of Justice actually sold all of that at

once it would absolutely crater the

value of of Bitcoin but that would

actually create a temporary buying

opportunity because they would just for

a short term destroy the order book

uh but anyway micro strategy it is true

has slowed its buying and issuance of

debt uh so therefore they're buying of

Bitcoin because their stock has slowed

its advance so that's going to be

something to pay attention to especially

after the job numbers tomorrow micro

strategy right now sitting at about 331

down another about 2 and a half% in the

premarket as bitcoin's down at

929 Tesla's up 1% in the after hours and

the futures for the NASDAQ are down

about 56 basis points now now uh for

Chaos Theory so a Daily Wealth

discussion which remember you can always

sign up for the Daily Wealth email over

at M kevin.com and a dad joke of the day

so Chaos Theory this is an easy one pick

something in your life closet car office

kitchen garage Garden anything pick

something for tomorrow in this case now

pretend to tragically burned down it's

terrible feeling you know fires burn us

like well literally they burn us they

rob us of things they sometimes Rob us

of life which is absolutely terrible and

and devastating it's a horrible thing

but after that fire passes and after we

assess what we've lost we have to

rebuild and put everything back together

and usually we rebuild better than we

built the first time this is human

nature if you're going to do it again

you're always going to make changes and

so what I recommend you do is you

pretend you had a fire in one of these

things and you had to take everything

out like you looted yourself throw

everything in a pile and sort it all

back in the odds are you're going to

donate or throw away half of the stuff

that you have stored in any of the

locations that I just mentioned the

garden the garage the the you know

closet the kitchen whatever and you're

going to sort it all back in much more

cleanly this is the principle of Chaos

Theory when you create chaos in your own

life you are actually in control of how

you put it back together this is used in

negotiations as well but that's really a

topic for a different video so therefore

I will leave you with a djo

oh boy the dad joke of the

day and then I'm going to end the video

all right I love you all so make sure to

subscribe here's your dad joke of the

day I ordered a chicken and egg on

Amazon

today I'll let you know why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see our go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin p their financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take