We NEED to talk about Tesla Stock.

hey everyone me Kevin here we need to

talk about the Tesla miss this morning

and the first reaction that a lot of

folks had was don't worry even though

right now Tesla has had its first sales

decline in over 10 years with a 1%

decline in sales

volume things are going to get better in

2025 with the release of a lower cost

production vehicle now while in this

video I want to talk about the stock

price and the valuation what Wall Street

is reacting with what we think for

earnings I really want to start by

addressing that claim the claim is that

okay we're going to have a lower cost

vehicle coming out in

2025 and the first thing that I like to

do is I like to evaluate where is that

claim coming from so that way we could

address the likelihood of that happening

uh and so I know exactly where that

claim is coming from the claim is coming

from well Tesla itself see if you look

at the Tesla investor relations page and

you look at their shareholder deck

you'll find this section right here this

is the q1 2024 shareholder deck and

you're going to see I'm going to show

you q1 Q2 and Q3 those are the last

three shareholder decks we have in 2023

we did not get any mentions of this but

we did in 1 2 and 3 and they changed

take a look at this so read this line

here for a second here I'll hide myself

for a

second okay I'll read it to you we have

updated our future vehicle lineup to

accelerate the launch of new models

ahead of our previously communicated

start of production in the second half

of 25 okay got it so new vehicles 2025

sounds cool lower cost Vehicles that's

great what do they say in the next uh

press releases well they say the

following plans for new vehicles

including more affordable models remain

models with an S remain on track for the

start of production in the first half of

2025 aha wait but this says second half

yes they got more optimistic they moved

up the production of these more

affordable models okay interesting so

what are more affordable models well

they could be one of two things one they

could be the rooc cab well actually they

could be one of three things they could

be the rooc cab Robo taxi they could be

a $225,000 nonfully autonomous vehicle

or they could be cheaper existing models

of vehicles right here's the Q3 one

where they say the same thing plans for

new vehicles including more affordable

models uh remain on track for production

in the first half of 2025 okay so

remember the three three options that we

have here here it could be a rooc cab it

could be a cheaper existing models we'll

call it uh or a new model entirely not

fully

autonomous okay but wait a minute it

says more affordable well the current

most affordable vehicle let's go to

tesla.com and find it uh it's what in

the lower 30,000 right so let's go to a

model 3 let's get the order now let's

take out things like gas savings or

whatever cash

$229,999 remove the gas savings eh

current more affordable model is about

424 okay interesting so if we're about

424 right now uh let's write we would

have to have less expensive Vehicles

basically than that uh under

$42,000 now that's possible Right all

three of these things are possible this

could be metion in the robo taxi product

cheaper existing models just lowering

prices basically vehicle deflation which

is probably likely especially since

we're seeing some sale numbers come down

here and a new model entirely not uh uh

not entirely

fully not entirely fully autonomous

under

$42,000 that would any of these three

things would fulfill the promise now the

question is could it potentially be the

$25,000 vehicle versus the robo taxi

well for this we could go to the Q3 2024

Tesla Financial results and let's listen

to Elon talk about exactly that so um so

anyway there's like basically I think

having a regular 25k model is pointless

yeah it would be silly like it would be

completely at us with what we believe in

in in a town this world what matters is

the lowest cost per mile of of of

efficiency of that vehicle and that's

what we've done with with the Rope taxi

exactly Aon it's fully considered cost

per mile

um is what matters and if you try to

make a car that

is you

know

essentially a hybrid

manual automatic cards it's it's not

going to be as good as a dedicated

autonomous car um

so yeah Cy cab is is just not going to

have steering wheels and paddles it's

designed optimized for

autonomy now

it'll it'll it'll you know cost on the

order of cost roughly 25k so it is a 25k

car and you can you will be able to buy

one on it exclus exclusively if you

want

so just what have

Ste you don't need it all right got it

so this gives us a little bit more

clarity because now we can go over here

and we could say all right so it's not

going to be

this will not be 25k because that would

be pointless right so I suppose this

leaves open the door to a you know maybe

30 to 40K vehicle

right but this would likely in my

opinion okay just my opinion just be a

cheaper model 3 especially as the $7,500

tax credit expires which actually is

somewhat surprising to me because you

know the the $7,500 tax credit Donald

Trump one of the first things that he

said once he got elected with Elon

musk's support is that they're going to

kill the $7,500 electrical Electric

Vehicle tax credit I was convinced that

was going to mean we are going to see a

uh rapid acceleration of Tesla sales

because people are basically going to

want to buy the dip before the coupon

code expires so to

speak uh

should I mention

it okay yes yes we have a New Year's

coupon code over at Meek kevin.com you

you could join me in the courses on

building your wealth and everything on

trumponomics best course right now if

you want to know like with the amount of

new content that's planned for that

course you want to be in it uh the price

is only going to go up this year as I

keep releasing new content but it's it's

really good and here's a picture of me

with my cyber truck which by the way

this cyber truck like you saw that

explosion that happened yesterday Trump

attack uh the Trump Tower Vegas attack

uh apparently a military uh vet very

very sad killed himself you know with a

Bed full of basically gas and fireworks

and stuff uh shocking but it really just

like it was so strong it really didn't

cause a lot of damage it didn't break

any glass at Trump Tower it just

absorbed all the blast seems like most

of the blast actually went inside of the

cabin sucks for the guy uh and and then

up but this is an example of my uh cyber

cab or cyber cab cyber truck and uh I

really enjoy the utility of this and I

really like I'm going to you know what

I'm going to buy like right now another

one of these partitions because they're

so useful uh I just I like I can't

stress enough I I don't think I've I've

bragged about a car this much but I

really like the cybertruck it's really

really good I do miss my model X the

model X7 seat version is a scam though

don't get it because your your trunk

room goes to zero if you are a family

and you need

space uh the max you could really do

with a Tesla is two kids because don't

don't think you 7 seats going to work

cuz you won't fit a stroller in the back

it sucks uh it's pretty much true for

all the cars so just assume two kids two

adults Max you know after that you

really got to get into the van world or

sprinters anyway I wish they would come

out with a larger vehicle but anyway uh

these uh the accessories they have for

these are great uh and uh I know I'm

going on a little bit of a tangent over

here right now I don't even know where I

can find the accessories right now I

know they put all these crazy like

pictures and stuff over here but um the

vehicle really is phenomenal it it

drives well it's comfortable to drive

and I also really like that it's higher

up off the ground and what's really

remarkable is I got Lauren to start

using the um what's it called um let me

just see if I can add this to a cart or

something and go shopping in the store I

can't find

it oh well uh this should make it easier

here Tesla cybertruck accessories anyway

I got Lauren to finally start using the

uh Model S which is she loves it so it

took a while to actually get her to

really love it um and and want to drive

it because she was always sort of afraid

of like oh it's a Tesla I don't know but

honestly now she's kind of like nah man

yeah this is actually really good so

like people are slowly starting to learn

how great it is uh anywh who uh oh this

is really cool cooler in the front H

this by the way is great I will say this

is fantastic I put my golf clubs in here

the unde ones it's like perfect little

tray back there anyway I'm totally off

tangent or off off um topic here so

let's get back to topic so rooc

cab is an option we we know this is

going to be about uh yes we know for

sure this will be more affordable than

42k so we know this with

certainty we know that it's not going to

be we know with certainty it's not going

to be a $25,000 vehicle so we might be

talking about cheaper existing vehicles

or the rooc cabs in this disclosure here

right which with the $7,500 vehicle tax

credit expiring new models going into

production the only thing we've heard

about new models going into production

so far has been the rooc cab because

during we robot Elon Musk said that we

should be at mass production quote

before 2027 which means entering

production in 2025 and then Mass

producing in 2026 you know before

2027 uh and he calls this optimistic but

that's basically what he's outlined so I

think this is really interesting because

I I do think that as a Tesla investor

you really have to recognize that yes

this is a company that is betting the

farm basically I shouldn't say the farm

because that sounds bad but you have to

remember what Elon says and I I was

talking about this this morning in the

course member live stream because we did

a we're starting to do the course member

live stream as the market open live

stream I apologize about that I just

there's so much going on in my life I

just had to consolidate back to just

doing one live stream in the morning uh

so if you want to be a part of it

meetkevin.com you pay once you get

lifetime access but uh what I talked

with course members about is I said if

you don't believe in fd's ability to

handle fully autonomous don't buy the

stock that's not my line that's Elon uh

Tesla talk that's Elon musk's line and

that's because this new model that

they're talking about in my opinion has

just been a tease for the rooc cab all

along all along these three quarters

have just been a te's for the rooc cab

and and I'm not saying that's a bad

thing you know in fact they kind of gave

you like a nice heads up that it was

coming what day were were these earnings

Q I think it was like October 17th or

something like that Q3 2024 Tesla

earnings it was

October 23rd oh okay close yeah and wi

robot was 1010 so that's all pretty

fresh

information so now that leaves you with

the question of okay well what happened

with the decline in production here well

there are a few things that happened

first of all you had flat sales in the

United States you had Europe down 14%

year-over-year Europe's basically in a

recession and this is very different

from the sovereign debt crisis where

everybody might remember uh pigs if you

don't remember this it's a really

derogatory thing that was used back in

2011 to about

2014 and the definition was uh Portugal

Italy Greece Spain were so heavy in debt

that countries like Germany and France

were having to bail them out that was

the thesis then well now all of a sudden

you look and you're like

bro Germany and France are lagging

Germany and France the the leaders are

now potentially in recession especially

Germany so it's not a surprise that

European sales are down 14% year-over

year but remember the European sales

only make up about 14.8% of Tesla's

total sales China's closer to like 22%

so China beats Europe by a lot but but

China is also facing a lot of byd

competition byd grew their total sales

by 41.4% plugin hybrids of that 301,000

but pure battery 207,000 vehicles in

China that's that's pretty good pretty

good number it's still not like what

Tesla's selling I mean Tesla if Tesla's

doing about 22% there they're still

beating byd by about a factor of two

even in China CH but when it comes to

Pure electric vehicles but uh I mean

you're selling quite a bit uh and the

growth is pretty phenomenal for byd

Warren Buffett invests in byd he's got

about a 6% stake of his portfolio uh in

by most of his portfolio is Apple for

the dividend and Bank of America and

American Express honestly American

Express and apple are pretty good

companies I don't like Bank of America

but anyway so then it got me wondering

okay why why are we not seeing maybe

just a more affordable version where

people would have the choice to buy a

second vehicle with a smaller battery

pack Lauren has you know 312 miles of

range in the model S and I've got I

think like 305 in the Cyber truck do we

really both need 300 miles no because

all it does is Lauren just doesn't

charge your car but maybe like once

every 10 or 15 days because she only

drives like 15 miles a day so she just

uses the battery that she's carrying

around for not having to plug it in

which is fine because we don't have a

driveway and that's kind of convenient

for us anyway but if we had a driveway

in a place to park it and plug it in

every day great that'd be

cool but one of the things that I got to

thinking about is why don't they

introduce a lower cost or or a smaller

lower cost Tesla with a smaller battery

pack like something that you know let's

say one of your cars is a 300 mile range

car and you're a two income household so

you have two cars with kids or whatever

your second car ends up being like a 75

mile range car and you end up paying I

don't know $20,000 like a dirt cheap

Tesla like an iPhone C you know or

whatever I think it's because most of

Tesla's margin is actually in selling

you the battery think about this lithium

prices have absolutely collapsed from

the insanity of Co and I don't think

they actually want to draw give you a

smaller battery pack because I think

most of the manufacturing margin is

actually buried in the battery pack in

other words maybe they're making the

pack for 1,000 bucks they're selling it

to you for 6K that's 5K a profit well 5K

a profit on on a you know $35,000 sale

is already 15% margin now I'm not saying

that is exactly how it plays out I'm I'm

I'm exaggerating here I'm just saying I

think that one of the reasons why you're

not getting smaller packs is because

that's where all the margin is buried

you know otherwise like you're not

putting margin really on labor or the

you know aluminum or the iron or

whatever so I think that's very

interesting now with that said uh that

would be an option for a lower cost

vehicle but we just we haven't seen that

from them as well now I will say FSD is

pretty good uh I I like version 13 I

have the latests uh Ross doesn't like it

Ross just tweeted says uh not to mention

driving FSD 13 yesterday in Venice can't

even come close to the ability of wh

wh's everywhere and I have to disengage

FSD constantly was a hectic day of

tourists however no excuses FSD is not

close so that's Ross Gerber's

take um it is true wayos are expanding

pretty rapidly but they're also a very

different system right lar based versus

Tesla's pure Vision

based but uh uh something else that's

very interesting for Tesla though out of

these earnings and I want to talk about

what Wall Street was talking about as

well is that we we had a you know 20%

growth in the gigawatt hours of energy

production energy did so well that even

though tesle stock right now is down

about 6.3% Nas stock is up

3.8% probably because of this explosion

in in you know battery sales mega pack

sales and solar potentially sales I'm a

big fan of this by the way big fan of

what you could sell these battery packs

for like home storage or city Storage

Mega

packs excuse me because the margins are

so high the margins on energy are like

35% they're

incredible so this is why again it sort

of reiterates my thesis that they don't

want to drop the prices all on or or

drop the size of battery that they're

selling you because that's where they're

making the money the dollar holas are

there so uh I mean look look at the last

here go to the last earnings release for

test go

to let's see let's get a statement over

here let's go over here to the statement

of operations let's go right here energy

storage let's throw a little highlighter

on that and then let's go to energy

storage expenses right right here and

all we're going to do is divide those

two lines and we're going to get the

2024 number which is the far

right okay so zoom out a little bit so I

can actually see the right line that I'm

on there we go this

number and this number all right so our

expense our cost of goods sold basically

1651 divided by

2376 yeah that's 31% margin .5% margin

so our expense is about

69% uh so but 30.1 or 5% going to uh

gross profit from energy that's really

really good that's fantastic margin but

unfortunately the the company's stock

price is not predicated on energy right

now because how much how much profit is

that right now what's the difference

2376 minus 1651 7 $25 million in gross

profit okay take off say 15% for

operating expenses let's see operating

expenses here are 2280 divided by

25182 oh okay take off 9% minus 9% for

Opex 725 *

.91 659 million of uh

energy uh we'll call it uh op

profit and their net income was

3183 million net income energy equals

divid by

2183 30% of net income it's great that's

fantastic that's really really good like

as a proportion of how much money

they're making this is a great sector

and it's growing rapidly and it's

probably honestly going to double it

could become 50% of their night income

but batteries are not what's propping

the stock up batteries make money but

don't prop the stock what

props AI plus robotics that's what's

propping the stock up right now in my

opinion when I think the valuation

unfortunately and I've been saying this

you know I've been saying this a little

early I've been saying this since like

$300 I thought it was a little Rich So

In fairness like there has been a

euphoric rally uh that has extended a

lot further than I thought it would last

summer I made videos talking about how

you know volatility and you might

remember this we did an emergency course

member live stream on this like I did

emergency live I sent Al alert to

everybody I go this is very important

and I'm like look volatility on Tesla is

the lowest it's been uh only four times

in history over the last 14 years and

every single time after volatility has

gotten this low it has gone up like 50%

over the next three months and Tesla did

exactly

that uh so I was right about that ran up

to about 260 from like 150 at that point

but I didn't think it would extend to

you know over

400 uh so obviously I was wrong about

that but let's take a look at this so

the current projections from Wall Street

and then fairness these are just Wall

Street projections so you know they they

they could be overly bearish but right

now we have

$243 of eps expected for Tesla for this

three year so if I divide that into

their price right now where my gosh

there's a child screaming out there I

haven't closed my other door yet that's

156 PE ratio right now wow that is loud

I'm going to go get a child in a sec and

bring him in

here give him a piece of my mind that's

uh 28% average growth is expected over

the next four years for the company 156

divided by 28% it's selling for a 5.5

Peg I mean even if I priced them as an

AI company they should be selling for

half of

that yeah which would be 380 divid 2

yeah 190 at this earnings per share

right for

2026 If I multiply their 2026 expected

EPS of $4 by a 2.67 like AI style PEG

ratio times 28% growth they should be

selling for

$300 in

2026 which this somewhat aligns with my

uh

like the valuation spreadsheet that I

have when I actually price out I always

like to do valuations in two ways one

sort of quick rough and dirty with a peg

sheet and then another we could get deep

sort of into the Weeds on a uh a Tesla

spreadsheet that I put together uh and

it somewhat aligns with saying that yeah

things are a little bit pricey right now

so if I go to 2026 for Tesla uh looks

like let's see here post end of 2026

what do we got here this

is uh let's see let's let's do this

together I don't have the latest fresh

one up so we'll just do this together so

we so we'll do the cost per vehicle here

uh revenue from energy $26 billion this

is very very high remember right now

we're we're like half that but we expect

it to double so we're going to put that

in

there uh we are expecting a reduction in

the average cost per vehicle that's fine

margin 18% that's fine we can leave that

and uh then we're going to give them the

50p

ratio oh well actually yeah by the end

of 2026 with these numbers yeah so I was

thinking $300 off the top of my head

here with numbers now I'm at 244

here with a reasonable end of 2026 level

on uh oh this is with an auto valuation

so this is with a 1.67 peg if I go to an

AI valuation there we go yeah 381 so

basically where the price is today with

an AI valuation you're in the 300 in

2026 with energy doubling so the price

today

assumes uh that you have vehicle growth

I think we've got vehicle how much

growth we have in here yeah 3 million

vehicles that assumes 50% vehicle growth

at slightly lower prices 50% energy

growth 18% margins over here uh and the

services PEG ratio which gives you a

higher PE multiple you're at 381 in

2026 the there some big assumptions

there pretty big now if I want to go

like you know more extreme here and

we're go W we're going to sell 5 million

rooc cabs by then and we're going to

sell those rooc cabs at you know 20%

margin I mean I think it's possible I

mean then you're at $623 that'd be

amazing okay the world is now using rooc

caps and we're selling it as a robo taxi

you know AI soft Service Company rather

than just a manufacturer sure but I mean

let's be real we haven't made a single

one yet and uh you know entering mass

production might give us that extra

million units to get to a million units

in 2026 for rooc caps assuming flat

growth on the others and I mean I think

these are already pretty generous

numbers so uh anyway that's that's where

I come from you know with this but

anyway don't get me wrong like I I don't

want to come across as a Tesla bear I

just think there's been a lot of

momentum uh and that's unfortunately

like a well I mean after that volatility

Spike that kind of created momentum and

then you get excitement over Robotics

and AI andah blah blah blah that's cool

but so what happens when that momentum

starts fading well this is a temporary

risk factor when you get something that

momentums up usually once the momentum

Fades you you tend to retrace and the

biggest retracement level I have right

now is about 318 I think we'll probably

hold 318 breaking 318 would put you back

at like the mid 200s which this is more

of where I'd want to buy more

anyway uh so I just think it would be

buying opportunity like I I don't think

Tesla's price going down would be a bad

thing I actually think it's just an

opportunity for you to buy more for the

future because I do think in the long

run they're on the right trajectory but

in the short term yes the valuation is a

little bit uh on the high side so let's

see did we cover everything we got uh

first decline in a decade we covered

that we needed 515,000 vehicle

deliveries to have a positive

year-over-year growth we didn't get that

we got 495,000 production being down 9%

that was weird to me why production

missed by 9% I think that's potentially

a leading indicator that they're seeing

signs of softer sales com forward into

q1 which honestly I mean that sort of

aligns with my I mean I hate to say it

but my sort of my bearishness that yes

there's going to be a lot of euphoria in

Q4 after Trump was elected but q1 we're

going to start getting the reality

numbers where you know January February

March we're going to start seeing people

potentially getting laid off after the

holidays the government workers for

polls get laid off uh you know polling

workers uh private payrolls continue to

suffer continue to be overstated and

then revised

down it sort of aligns with just a

slowing economic cycle usually the cycle

doesn't doesn't like

slow uh and then get better like it's

not like if you draw a circle an a

typical econ business cycle doesn't go

from boom to slowing to diagonal across

and back to Boom it has to go through

recession now I don't know when that's

going to be I think it'll be this year

but I could be wrong I've been wrong

before I might be wrong again but the

reason I share this with you is because

I think that there's a great future for

Tesla I think there are going to be

better prices to buy it I think end

phase is a great deal if you're looking

for energy bets but end phase will get

screwed in recession too I mean

everybody's just going to get hurt in a

recession so if there is a recession

things will be a lot cheaper in the

future if there's no recession well then

I look at cheap valuations right now and

end phase is a very cheap valuation

relative to Tesla so if you like that

energy growth you know I'd be buying end

phase for the energy growth that's not

recommendation for you that's just a

thesis that I have if you want more of

my thesis and talk to me in the live

streams remember go to meet kevin.com

but anyway end phase right now 71.3

divided by 2.19 selling for about 32

times and their growth over the next

four years is expected to be 33 yeah so

we're selling for a one peg slightly

below a one peg it's like a 097 Peg you

know Tesla at a 5.5 Peg paler at like a

10 Peg price turnings growth yeah you

all know this but anyway thanks so much

for watching okay I really appreciate

yall uh I'll just keep providing value

I'm always just going to like you don't

have to copy me right I just want to

share my perspective with you and and

and really I want everybody to make

money like I I get happy when other

people make money because other people

are happy and it's fun to be around

happy people I'm very depressed when

everybody around is like oh my gosh you

know I lost my job and I don't have any

money that's sad I remember that 2008

it's terrible man terrible so anyway

thanks folks see you bye can not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take