The State of Stimulus & Infrastructure.

hey everyone me kevin here let me give

you a no-nonsense complete update on

what the heck is going on with the

infrastructure packages because right

now we're kind of like wait a minute we

had a whole lot of drama now all of a

sudden things have gotten a whole lot

real quiet real fast yeah that's kind of

exactly what happened see the house

passed the debt limit suspension on

tuesday of this week after the senate

passed the debt limit suspension through

about december 3rd current estimate as

to when we'll run out of money again uh

last week of course last week when the

senate passed the debt limit suspension

there was a lot of fanfare because it

was a big deal because we didn't think

we'd actually be able to get it through

the senate because mitch mcconnell and

republicans were going to essentially

filibuster any extension of the debt

limit if democrats didn't use the budget

reconciliation package as a way to get

the debt limit raised well for one

reason or another republicans moved out

of the way whether they thought that

democrats would just change the rules

and permanently get rid of the

filibuster or because they wanted to

show that they were in control by kind

of ceding some power

nobody knows nobody exactly knows it

doesn't really matter i think it

probably the answer has to do with

whether you're a democrat or a

republican in terms of what you believe

but the point is after this really big

showdown last week

nothing's happened like we've pretty

much had everything sol all the pressure

that there was on getting these

infrastructure packages done just came

to a bitter

halt

now it literally seems like the build

back better plan which used to be that

three and a half trillion dollar package

which is now expected to be somewhere

reduced somewhere around one and a half

to two and a half trillion dollars is

pretty much just on hold and the

bipartisan infrastructure package all it

needs is nancy pelosi to go let's vote

on it and she's not now nancy pelosi has

time to vote on it so it's kind of in

her back pocket and when she brings it

up for a vote we expect it to pass

but

nancy pelosi can't bring it up for a

vote until progressives are okay with

the build back better plan that's the

big package because otherwise

the bipartisan infrastructure package

probably won't pass remember bipartisan

infrastructure is the hard plan it's the

smaller package it's for hard

infrastructure railroads trains bridges

uh like infrastructure in terms of

internet connectivity like broadband

connectivity and of course the buildback

better plan is the bigger one the social

infrastructure plan with things like

paid leave and free universal a

pre-kindergarten for children

there are also items in there like

having uh negotiations for drug prices

for medicare or allowing democrats to

add priorities like dental vision and

hearing programs for medicare recipients

something that bernie sanders is a big

proponent of something that he really

wants to see included

but we've got serious problems and we're

kind of stuck on hold on negotiations on

both of these packages why well because

you have moderates looking at the big

one and a half the two and a half

trillion dollar build back better plan

going yeah we don't know what to cut yet

we want to cut a lot of things but we

don't know what to cut initially you had

some people saying well we'll just

shorten the time frame that will do

things like having a child tax care

credit which would be that 250 a month

or 300 per month initially it was just

talk about we'll just shorten that time

frame now there's literally talk about

cutting entire sections out of this bill

which we're not sure what sections might

go but it's possible that the entire

child tax credit could go it's possible

that paid child care could go medicare

benefits could go it's possible that

paid leave could go there are a lot of

things in this bill

that could just get sliced because

here's the thing

nancy pelosi and chuck schumer and the

democrats are going to end up being in a

situation where it's taker to leave it

if they don't pass the bipartisan

infrastructure package they lose on

something that already passed the senate

the hard infrastructure package that 1.2

trillion dollars of spending they would

lose that if they don't pass something

on the build back better side well to

build back better side they need to get

something together i honestly at this

point which i know that chuck schumer is

hoping to get something done by the end

of october i'm kind of doubtful of at

this point i think it's probably going

to end up rolling into november but to

me it sounds like democrats are going to

end up having to settle for something

relatively small like another one to one

and a half trillion dollars strongly

wrong i realize it's still like big it's

still in the trillions range right but

it's way smaller than the three and a

half trillion dollars that joe biden was

sort of promising we would be getting

especially since joe biden came out and

mentioned uh well not let's go brandon

but uh that that we would have a three

and a half trillion dollar package and

nothing less not even like 2.9 well

looks like biden's going to be uh having

an oopsies on that one because we're

probably not even going to see a 2.9

probably be more like a one and a half

to two and a half plus that 1.2 trillion

dollar

build back or a bipartisan

infrastructure package anyway when you

try to get an update on negotiations

there's talk at least gensaki tells us

that there are negotiations going on

with kirsten cinema those moderates kind

of potentially holding up this bill the

larger one just like joe manchin trying

to make sure the bill is not too

expensive one of the reasons by the way

they're both holding this up is because

of inflation concerns we just had a cpi

report that came out actually hotter

than expected which means a little bit

more inflation than expected we came in

with 5.4 versus 5.3 percent which is

reiterating fears that maybe we're

spending too much money and we're

supporting the markets too much with too

much money printing and borrowing and

that's actually reiterating kirsten

cinema and joe manchin wanting to hit

the brakes on this plan best case

scenario would have been that on

wednesday we would have seen inflation

numbers miss or come in lower that would

have actually been good for this

infrastructure spending so far it's not

now pete budajeg suggests that hey our

infrastructure spending could actually

help reduce inflation but he's got a

long way to go to convince moderates of

that kind of argument his argument is

hey if you make investments things will

become cheaper and more efficient and

we'll be able to deal with our supply

chain crises which could help us reduce

inflation that's a long time coming that

sort of investment and seeing that kind

of a cost benefit and i think people

like joe manchin and kirsten cinema are

going to freak out too much about

inflation in the short term to let any

kind of argument like that fly but then

again we're also not debating the

bipartisan infrastructure package that

1.2 trillion dollars to make ports move

faster airplanes move faster and cancel

less flights because we're investing in

our airports and more infrastructure

that's already been agreed on by

democrats and republicans so in my

opinion just pass that already if you

want to start seeing inflation go down

and that's the case like pete buda jack

says then pass the bipartisan plan stop

diddly dawdling waiting to try to get

the second piece of the puzzle done get

the second piece of the puzzle done when

you get the second piece of the puzzle

done

but again it's progressives in the house

of representatives people like aoc are

holding up the passing of the hard

infrastructure package because they want

to make sure they get their revised

social infrastructure package things

like that child tax credit and the other

spending whether it's on medicare or

whatever else

now nancy pelosi is desperately trying

to get things handled and trying to get

things done she wrote in a letter that

quote overwhelmingly the guidance that

i'm receiving from members is to do

fewer things well so that we can still

have a transformative impact on families

in the workplace and responsibly address

the climate crisis a build back better

agenda for jobs and the planet for the

children so this is uh this is

essentially her saying hey you know it

looks like we're probably gonna instead

of just reducing the time frame of

everything

cut the large sections that i had

alluded to earlier and just try to focus

on what can we get done what can we

agree on we're not going to get

everything

we're going to be cutting a lot out of

this and let's just pass something

already now again chuck schumer thinks

we can get this done by the end of the

month i am skeptical and so are a lot of

congressional analysts you do have a lot

of household representative folks

especially democrats and republicans are

saying pelosi put the infrastructure

bill on the floor in fact mark warner a

virginia democrat said quote i think the

president ought to tell the house that

we ought to deliver the infrastructure

bill let's make it the law of the land

but again the buildback better plan is

waiting for progressives to authorize

the buildback better plan the bigger

social infrastructure package in order

to pass the other one it's literally

turned into a game of chicken

so

right now joe biden leaves off by saying

it doesn't matter about the time whether

it's going to happen in six minutes or

six days or six weeks that's a quote

from him he expects this plan to get

done but the white house does want this

done sooner rather than later personally

i have to say every day that goes by

makes it just seem less and less likely

or at least makes the package seem

smaller and smaller and i'm surprised

with the lack of updates that we're

getting out of congress on this

but then again maybe i shouldn't be

surprised we we literally argued the

second stimulus package last year

between

april

and december of last year before it

actually passed

we started talking about like who

remembers the heroes act back in april

of 2020 and we didn't actually get the

600 stimulus check until december yeah

that's eight

months so it goes to show you congress

isn't really good at making things

happen fast and so far kind of just

sitting on the sidelines

these inflation numbers didn't help jobs

numbers didn't really help

because right now we're thinking that

it's possible that the reason we're

seeing jobs come in lower is maybe

having to do more with coveted

vaccinations either

covered vaccination mandates or or

combination of covid vaccinations not

being available for children that sort

of combination could be helping reduce

job numbers or at least labor force

participation which also tends to push

up pricing for wages which could lead to

more inflation so so far biden's got a

big hot potato and not a lot of progress

happening but this is a complete update

for you if you found it helpful consider

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video thanks so much bye

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