The War in Ukraine vs Russia | Prepare for THIS *End.*

what is going to happen in ukraine what

are the potential outcomes and what is

likely to happen in terms of timing and

markets in reaction to these outcomes

well in this video we're going to talk

about exactly that first a shout out to

the financial times so for coming up

with the five scenarios of what could

potentially happen in terms of a

resolution in ukraine and of course with

russia and then i'll be adding details

on my perspectives for time frames and

of course what the implications might be

for markets so let's get right into

these five scenarios the first scenario

is a russian win and zielinski uh

getting toppled that is the zelinski

government failing the zielinski

government collapsing zelensky dying or

being captured some form of of terrible

outcome now this scenario does have a

certain likelihood of happening because

of russia's military might though as

long as we can keep supplying weapons as

western allies are to ukrainians it's

being it's become very difficult for

russia to actually continue to mount

their offensive in a successful manner

they severely underestimated the resolve

of ukrainians and the power of zelensky

either way in the scenario if russia

were to win they would likely install a

pro-moscow government a puppet

government the problem with this is it

would likely lead to an insurgency in

ukraine similar to what we had seen in

iraq and afghanistan now the issue here

is russia would have to occupy and the

problem is and we've known this from

prior research russia does not have

enough troops to occupy when we occupied

for example iraq during operation iraqi

freedom

we invaded with approximately 19 troops

per thousand civilians

when germany invaded poland during world

war ii they invaded with approximately

80 soldiers per 1000 civilians this is

why it was a blitzkrieg it was an

overwhelming amount of soldiers when you

see nato enter a combat you also usually

see somewhere between 17 to 20 troops

per

civilians

russia right now is in ukraine with only

six soldiers per thousand civilians this

is likely to lead to a very prolonged

insurgency in a very very weak moscow

government

this is not in my opinion going to work

very well not only are we going to see a

russian economy continue to falter under

the pressure of being kicked out of the

swift system before there's really an

alternate for the swift banking system

we're going to continue to see supply

issues as it relates to manufacturing

components for let's say as

even just russian vehicles imagine this

you want to buy a car but unfortunately

one-third of parts that go into russian

vehicles come from outside of russia

russia is either going to have to source

these all from china potentially sources

them from other countries or likely does

as well or russia is just not going to

be able to produce as many cars and this

is why we've seen 20 percent inflation

in car prices in russia in just the last

two weeks

in my opinion this scenario that is a

pro-moscow government in ukraine is

going to continue to be bad for markets

we're going to have a lack of control

for wheat for neon for palladium this is

going to be bad for oil prices well i do

think the pa the the shock pain that is

the 130 to 150 price per barrel will

wane will likely stay at elevated oil

prices for a while say 90 to 110 dollars

per barrel so we'll see some reprieve

here but we'll likely see more of the

same in that big uncertainties will be

gone the uncertainty of a war with nato

and a nuclear battle might be gone which

is very very good we don't want to go in

that direction which is one of the

scenarios we'll talk about so this

scenario will be better for markets but

it won't be great because we still won't

have a resolution we'll have a power

vacuum in ukraine while

russia attempts to install their power

structure which ukrainians are unlikely

to respect again leading to prolonged

insurgency a lot of death and a lot of

continued destruction now this will of

course be a very localized issue but it

doesn't matter if wheat fields burn down

in ukraine

and 30 percent of the world's wheat

comes from the ukraine russia region

wheat prices are going up baguettes in

france are going to be more expensive

and inflation will continue to rage or

rain havoc or wreak havoc whatever

create havoc throughout the world

unfortunately so this is not one of the

best case scenarios though it is

definitely not as bad as a full-on war

with nato that would be the absolute

worst case scenario so little reprieve

but probably more of the same in this

scenario

now another option would be a little bit

of mix here a partial russian victory

where basically zelensky's government

goes bankrupt

maybe they end up tr retreating to

western ukraine let's say they make leve

the capital which given that russia

right now has been

mostly focused at least as the financial

times puts it uh they've mostly focused

their assault on the eastern front in

addition to kiev and odessa in the south

they've mostly focused their bombardment

like marupo

and kharkiv over on the eastern front

maybe this is an indication that russia

is okay with a partitioned ukraine where

essentially you draw a line down the

middle russia potentially ends up taking

odessa the seaport third largest city

and kiev the capital as well as eastern

territories but ukraine exists as sort

of now a 40 percent of what it used to

be country with a capital in la viv

where we've really had almost

no assaults on western territories

now

one argument is that that's what russia

is trying to carve out another argument

is russia's coming from the north the

south and the east and they just haven't

made it all the way to the west side yet

who knows but putin has hinted at a

partitioned ukraine so this does mean

there is some likelihood that this could

potentially happen now in this case we

might end up seeing less of an

insurgency because ukrainians who are

still remaining in ukraine it could

potentially potentially not no

guarantees here

choose to move to western ukraine the

problem with that is that means giving

up their land their property their their

belongings uh their their cities their

businesses in eastern ukraine or central

to eastern ukraine now that could be

likely though because a lot of that

property could be destroyed or just

under russian control which creates very

difficult opportunities to re-establish

normal life uh in sort of the eastern

bloc it's almost kind of like we might

sort of see the division that we saw in

germany west germany versus in east

germany although i doubt there would be

a wall unless russia pays for it now

another option well i suppose i should

briefly mention economically

economically this scenario here is

probably better than a complete russian

win because there is a potential that

some of this will be seen as somewhat

negotiated and if ukraine says you know

what we're good with this we're good

which which is unlikely at this point

but it's possible

if we're good with this

go ahead you know lift some of the pain

on russia ultimately that's going to

come down to negotiation with

negotiations between ukraine and and the

western world and maybe we could see

some sanctions lifted we could actually

see a likelihood of more relaxation in

markets than in scenario number one

remember scenario number one is no more

ukraine like russia completely takes it

scenario number two is partitioned i

would say scenario number two is

significantly better for markets than

scenario number one of course this is

still a bad scenario for ukraine it's

giving up a lot of land a lot of power

but it could be what putin's going for

because remember what putin wants is a

demilitarized ukraine now this is

important because as a condition of

joining nato you actually have to prove

that you could provide military support

here's the criteria in the words of nato

the criteria i'll put it up on screen as

well it says these criteria include a

functioning democratic political system

based on a market economy fair treatment

of minority populations a commitment to

resolve conflicts peacefully an ability

and willingness to make military

contributions to nato operations and a

commitment to a democratic civil

military relationship uh and uh and

institutions as well so here you can see

if ukraine has no military then they're

unable to make military contributions to

nato which would actually disqualify

them from joining nato solely from that

point this is one of the reasons that

putin wants to see demilitarized ukraine

and this is why it's likely that putin's

not going to give up his fight for the

capital kiev and again this is where you

could potentially see a new capital move

westward in the scenario

but again we'll also have insurgency in

the east so we'll still have anxieties

in the east

okay now scenario number three

this is probably the best case scenario

and this is a negotiated solution so

bloomberg this morning has been talking

about

the constant airing of quote continuous

talks with russia over video and zoom

calls this is very good the more talks

we have the better better the prior

three discussions so far are focused

predominantly on ceasefire negotiations

and humanitarian corridors which have

really collapsed every time even under

the management of the red cross mostly

because russian troops or ukrainian

troops somebody ends up firing either

through mistrust or fear or lack of

communication or whatever and the

corridors fall apart

now of course you do have some levels of

escalation here for example

you have sergey lavrov suggesting that

the us is providing biological weapons

to ukraine and at the same time you have

joe biden saying any use of chemical

weapons will be met with a quote severe

price now if obama before biden is any

clue here then putin probably doesn't

care about biden's words because

remember obama said if chemical weapons

were used and during his term in the

middle east then that would be a red

line remember syria damascus and the use

of potentially mustard gas which

ultimately came out to be yeah mustard

gas was used while obama's red line was

crossed and nothing happened this is of

course one of the stains on obama's

presidency and and i don't mean to just

only say that as if i'm anti-obama or

for obama it's just an observation this

is one of one of i'm picking one of the

downsides but only because it relates to

what biden is saying here this is not a

video about obama anyway obviously we

know that kiev so far is ready for a

diplomatic solution we have heard from

zielinski that he is interested in

talking to putin directly and believes

by talking to putin directly he could

end this war we have heard zalenski say

that he is no longer interested in

joining nato probably would extend that

to not wanting to join the eu as well uh

so

with a negotiated solution here it is

possible that ukrainians would say look

we've negotiated a solution let's loosen

some of the sanctions let's get russia

back into swift now we can potentially

reduce the odds of a great depression in

russia since russian the russian economy

is getting absolutely destroyed uh so

obviously is the ukrainian economy and

the global economy is suffering global

gdp is suffering here but this

negotiated end would probably be the

best case scenario for markets i would

expect

if oil starts flowing again russian oil

starts flowing again we could see a

reduction in inflationary fears

transitory the new sort of transitory

type of inflation would prove to be true

and we would see a relaxation in markets

and and probably a broader rally so best

case scenario for markets here would be

a negotiated solution despite the fact

that there continue to be aggressions on

both sides uh for example

there's a report that apparently from

ukrainian airspace fighter jets launched

onto lunch missiles onto a belarusian

town and it appears to be that the goal

of this is trying to essentially aggro

using a video gaming term here the

belarusian military into combat in

ukraine to fight alongside the russians

against ukrainians because now the

belarusians are being dragged into this

war which they've previously suggested

they might consider moving into ukraine

with russia so

who knows maybe is that something that's

going to tip them over the edge nobody

knows okay now the next scenario uh this

is scenario number four is that putin

ends up getting

defeated somehow

so uh putin could get defeated in a few

different ways so first of all if allies

continue to provide weapons stinger

missiles javelins you name it it's

possible that russian troops could end

up getting repelled long enough for

elites and kremlin to in the kremlin

rather to essentially overthrow putin

you could have a military coup so elites

in the kremlin this would be like the

politicians the oligarchs saying putin

you got to go let's get you an island

let's get you a napoleon bonaparte kind

of style home and let's get you out of

here okay you gotta go go retire and

disappear okay that that would be an

elite kind of style takeover right and

then a relaxation hopefully uh the

russian military could potentially take

over out of frustration over the the

disastrous casualties and failures in

ukraine uh especially as if a lot of

them felt lied to about them just

going to ukraine or the border for

military exercises and now they're

on the front lines of a special military

operation aka war

russian military could end up

overthrowing uh putin this would be a

military coup a coup d'etat and this

would be replacing the kremlin's

government with military power now

likely the only reason this would happen

is if the military wanted to withdraw

from ukraine and and the war otherwise

they would just keep going on the same

side as putin so that would be good news

as well

obviously it's potent there's this

potential of the citizens revolting but

it's a lot harder for the citizens to

revoke when the state controls the media

so this might be a little bit more

difficult or more

challenging as a method of overthrowing

putin but either way putin could also

you know happen to drink nuclear tea as

kevin o'leary suggests from shark tank

or you know somehow end up disappearing

this is probably going to be a second

best case scenario here negotiated

solution being the best because then we

would be certain of the outcomes the

second best case scenario is if putin

for whatever reason was overthrown or

disappeared

then the reason this would be likely a

best-case scenario because likely

whoever's overthrowing putin doesn't

agree with putin's war and then wants to

end the war but we're not as certain as

that of that as a potential negotiated

solution right uh now you also if if you

do have a putin government collapsing

and let's say russia becomes almost

somewhat of a a demoted state i don't

want to say failed state but they would

certainly lose a lot of power it's

possible that you would create a power

vacuum in in russia and if there's a

power vacuum in russia it wouldn't

actually surprise me to see

western like western allies and nato try

to actually

move towards russia to try to

establish aid in russia that could be

humanitarian aid because of the

depression banking aid

food aid whatever aid in in the western

regions of russia

and it's also possible that at the same

time because there's no way china is

going to allow western nations getting

into russia it's also possible that you

could see chinese influence coming in on

the eastern side of russia to sort of

aid and rebuild what's you know the

russian economy obviously this would

also include a lot of aid in humanity

you know rebuilding efforts in ukraine

but also

considering the russian economy has been

devastated they'll likely be some form

of power struggle uh in russia and this

would lead to a lot of uncertainty in

russia this obviously again assumes that

ukraine gets a lot of help uh the

ukrainian government's gonna have to get

rebuilt right uh but zielinski would

likely rebuild ukraine because in this

case scenario russia lost right so

zalenski would likely rebuild ukraine

with the help of western nations and

western allies and then you'd have some

interesting power dynamics in

russia remember the goal generally of

countries is to create or become

regional hegemons so a regional hegemon

is basically a power that ends up having

cultural political military and economic

might in a region

okay next uh this is the absolute worst

case scenario this is scenario number

five scenario number five terrible

scenario this would be

a war with nato that is this war in

ukraine spills over to poland or another

nato country latvia whatever

and uh we we end up dragging the

european union the united states nato

into a disaster with uh with with russia

this could potentially have nuclear

implications

this is a i would say the the least

likely scenario but uh it is one that is

creating a lot of fear so any other

scenario that eliminates the potential

for ukrainian war i'm sorry a war with

nato would be very positive i believe

for markets removing that sort of

nuclear threat uh from market so

these are the five scenarios here and i

gotta again shout out financial the

financial times here for the inspiration

on this of course i've added a lot of uh

information and research and content to

this but i want to ask you what do you

think what is the most likely scenario

remember we've got five five scenarios

here and so maybe in the comments down

below let me know scenario number one

russia wins zielinski's toppled

number two partial russian victory and

the silencing government goes bankrupt

number three negotiated end no overall

control

uh putin toppled is number four with a

russian retreat that's number four and

then a war with nato number five what

scenario do you think is likely or maybe

what odds of each would you say

personally if i had to pick i would say

the odds of a negotiated end are

probably the highest

likely shot here i'd say this is

probably about a 60 chance of happening

i think a uh war with nato is probably

in the direction of two percent

so very very low let's see that leaves

me about 38 to give up

uh the next scenario i would say would

probably be about twenty percent for a

partial russian victory and uh zielinski

moving westward that uh that brings us

to about

82 percent so now we've got about 18

percent left

i would say probably the next maybe

14 percent would be a russian win and

zielinski getting toppled and the left

over four percent there being putin

getting overthrown so you can see i

think the nato war chances are on 2

putin getting toppled around 4 very very

low chance there negotiated end or sort

of that east west ukraine in my opinion

probably most likely

of course negotiated and being the best

case scenario for markets which i

believe is the most likely i just hope

and pray that this happens sooner rather

than later to help prevent and limit

the loss of civilian lives and just

lives in general anyway thanks so much

for watching if you found this helpful

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we'll see in the next one bye