An Urgent Bitcoin Warning BEFORE the Next Halving.

take a look at this Morgan Stanley piece

which is kind of scary because it shows

us that the vast majority potentially as

much as 80 percent of bitcoin's trading

action is controlled by just one company

ready for this here it is binance folks

listen to this Morgan Stanley piece

because it's pretty dang detailed and

it's worth understanding what they're

analyzing and what the implications of

this could be for Bitcoin because it's a

really big deal so look at this

expectations of U.S dollar liquidity

support have helped BTC rally that's

something that Kathy Wood told us as

well right Kathy Wood told us see look

bitcoin's going up because banks are

having uh problems and so if banks are

having problems maybe that's why we can

say oh look BTC is going up BTC going

back up to another FIB retracement line

nice skyrocketing there on BTC right as

the banking crisis begins and that kind

of makes us think oh maybe Bitcoin is a

tool that people could use to flee the

dollar and have a safe haven in Bitcoin

and maybe a lot of people are doing that

but is that actually what led to the

price rally for Bitcoin well Morgan

Stanley looks at blockchain analytics to

find out and the results are somewhat

surprising let's take a look or

potentially not surprising anyway listen

to this Traders on binance now set the

daily price for Bitcoin as the exchanges

volume takes 80 percent share of the

market in other words 80 a cents out of

every dollar of Bitcoin that are traded

occur on the binance network now this is

interesting because it comes right at

the same time as binance actually

decided to dump 1 billion dollars of

binance USD and turn it into Bitcoin

point so it kind of makes you wonder it

will go into it with a little bit of

Jade and we'll see what Morgan Stanley

says wait a minute what happened first

did the banking Crisis occur and then

did Traders flee to bitcoin hence

leading Bitcoin to Rally because they

were seeking safety for the dollar or

did the banking Crisis occur which would

be the perfect opportunity if you had

control of a lot of Bitcoin to or and

other extra cash to liquidate maybe a

stable coin and pump it and pump Bitcoin

to make Bitcoin seem more valuable

especially if you happen to be The

Brokerage responsible for 80 of the

trading volumes well to answer that we

would have to know what accounts are

actually transacting most of the Bitcoin

around the time of the banking crisis

and we happen to have an answer thanks

to Morgan Stanley so let's take a look

at this so the narrative quickly turned

in the traditional banking sector that

basically the weaker the traditional

banking sector the higher the Bitcoin

price this has been The Narrative of the

very pro-bitcoin movement again this is

why Kathy Wood reiterates her one to one

and a half million dollar price target

for Bitcoin and the market is focused

now on whether the FED will inject more

liquidity in other words if we're going

to see more pumping of uh dollars or

more printing of dollars into uh into

the fed's balance sheet and therefore

into the economy then maybe we'll see

BTC move as well all right let's take a

look at this BTC has outperformed other

risk markets currently trading at about

10 percent stronger if we use its prior

relationship with the NASDAQ so in other

words Bitcoin is actually outperforming

multiple different markets right now and

it's actually quite neat to see this

because you could jump over I'll go

forward a little bit look at this over

here here's Bitcoin versus U.S cyclical

so this is kind of interesting so you

got Bitcoin outperforming cyclicals

and look at this U.S cyclicals versus

defensives that's this right here and

then Bitcoin actually outperforming by

the way I love as I'm filming this

people think I'm like uh super like

anti-btc P somebody just donated five

dollars stop hating on bitcoin for not

getting in early

coin there's like this unleash of bots

and people don't actually care what your

information is notice how I actually

haven't gotten into any of the

information yet and some people are

already upset like I think it's I think

it's one of those things where it's like

what somebody has information

I don't want to hear it don't want to

hear it that's fine listen if you don't

want perspectives just leave the video

now okay you don't belong here if you

want to stay dumb put your head in the

sand you don't belong here I'm gonna

keep going now all right so uh so

bitcoin's actually doing interestingly

well by decoupling uh of what some

people are saying decoupling from

cyclicals here look at this BTC Blue

Line yellow line over here cyclicals

versus defensives you're actually seeing

a pretty good correlation here good

correlation here and then you get this

break right here so you get a break

around the banking crisis uh the same

over here with the Bitcoin correlation

to NASDAQ look at this rough correlation

here I mean you could say that's pretty

well correlated right here and then all

of a sudden we break on BTC okay now

what do we got here here we have a very

weak correlation to gold for Bitcoin uh

this is a lot harder to kind of draw a

midpoint over here on BTC and gold so

the correlation isn't too clear between

gold and BTC that's leading some people

to say this isn't digital gold so what

do we have over here here we have M2

money supply growth and Bitcoins market

cap and this makes sense right the more

money is printed potentially the more

money there is that could flow into

digital exchanges and Lead Bitcoin to go

up that makes complete sense so that's

actually very interesting because it

shows us that uh Bitcoin is very

sensitive to the flow of money which if

we're printing more money right now

maybe that's why it makes sense that

we're starting to actually see BTC

prices move up see I got them on the

chart right here if we go out to the

Daily uh what do we have for BTC well

look at the bottom of BTC on the chart

over here we're looking at on this day

chart where about March 9th right before

the banking crisis right so we kind of

have seen Bitcoin pumps since the

banking crisis uh and it's really pumped

in a way where it's decoupled from its

prior Trends it's prior association with

stocks here and the NASDAQ okay

interesting so why is this potentially

well let's take a look so binance

dominates Bitcoin trading on exchanges

binance cut Bitcoin trading fees to zero

last July and has continuously been

gaining market share that's actually

pretty incredible so as binance

basically was available with zero

trading fees while block five Voyager

and FTX died what happened bit binance

actually ended up taking a substantial

market share

at those times so kind of brilliant look

at that right around July right before

the collapse of a lot of of FTX and uh

right around the time of the collapse of

uh a voyager and right after the three

arrows Capital disaster this is really

interesting that you're seeing binance

Poland so much of a share 81 they

basically control Bitcoin trading okay

uh and this is why Morgan Stanley says

our conclusion is that Traders on

binance now set the daily price for

Bitcoin this makes logical sense okay

then what do we have investors mostly

ask us about coinbase uh as that is the

largest listed crypto stock company but

we argue that flows on binance more

closely explain what's going on in the

market for example after Bitcoin rallied

40 in January the volume of Bitcoin to

U.S usdt traded on binance reached a 38

uh X that of the equivalent pair on

coinbase in early 2022. so why why do

they explain this well they suggest that

people might be liquidating a stable

coin essentially and buying BTC and they

see those volumes of those transactions

match rallies in Bitcoin prices on

finance but not on coinbase interesting

so what's this Bitcoin order book

liquidity is poor reaching the lowest

levels in over a year okay that's

actually really important so when we

think about a small stock for example

and we look at a penny stock you know

maybe something that's trading for four

dollars with a market cap of oh I don't

know maybe it's got a market cap of uh

50 million dollars so a really small

company to some extent a micro cap

company

if you take a small company like that

and you move just five hundred thousand

dollars into the stock the stock will

probably pump substantially because the

order book is generally very thick the

order book is really just a list of who

wants to sell and who wants to buy and

the goal of an exchange is to help match

buyers and sellers market makers can

come in and provide liquidity by filling

orders at various different prices so

the thinner an order book is the more

sensitive to price to security or or

some sort of asset is

here Morgan Stanley alleges that right

now bitcoin's order book is very small

liquidity is very low this means smaller

trading volumes can have a larger

influence on price action versus before

liquidity has been deteriorating since

Alameda closed in November as they were

a large Market maker most of the BTC

rallied this year has occurred during

U.S trading hours and when Bitcoin

rallied 15 on the 13th of March the

largest buyers of BTC were from large

wallets many of them likely to be

exchange wallets okay now that's

interesting all right so what are they

essentially alleging here we'll take a

look at this over here this is what I

wrote

remember Finance just moved one billion

dollars of busd into BTC in my opinion

that's actually a very risky move you

say I wrote all these opinions down here

that's a very risky move because these

could create repercussions for the

crypto Market that are actually very

dangerous and I think it's very

important to consider that I'm saying

here could be right like in my opinion

if the market Nike swooshes that is we

had our Stark down already and we Nike

Swoosh up with volatility then crypto

should be fine should be right the

problem is if there's some sort of

exogenous shock like you know something

that cripples the stock market or

inflation that remains sticky or a

further into the banking crisis or or

people wanting to withdraw their money

from everything whether it's Banks and

crypto or or whatever right

some kind of shock that puts more stress

on the brokerages that remain like

cracking and binance I could end up

creating substantial strain over at

binance since what they're really doing

is they're taking more of their cash

backed assets and they're basically

buying Bitcoin with it that in my

opinion is a weakening of binance's risk

tolerance and this follows them

basically dumping uh their their proof

of Reserve audits which would never show

what liabilities were staked against

those but at least we got some kind of

audit into the asset side which is

relatively worthless anyway because if

you only know what the assets are and

you don't know what the liabilities are

what's the point we already know uh or

at least I should say suspect we don't

want to don't want to get sued by

Bandits but we already suspect that if

binance has three coins that are each

let's say worth a market cap of a

billion dollars we already suspect that

that there's probably only one billion

dollars of cash so when binance tells us

oh that coin is 100 backed by cash sure

it is as long as it's not also backed by

cash this as long as that cash is not

also being used by the other coin which

it probably is as long as it's not also

backing the other coin which it probably

is but we don't know because there's no

regulation over here right so in other

words

Morgan Stanley is giving us this sort of

cannon fodder to suggest wait a second

if exchanges are the ones who are

pumping crypto specifically binance who

controls 80 to 81 percent of Market

volumes

isn't it possible that an exchange like

binance could actually be perpetrating a

purposeful pump during the banking

crisis to make Bitcoin appear more

desirable and therefore manipulating

people like Kathy Wood into thinking the

pump in bitcoin price was actually

organic when the fact is it was not it

was an inorganic pump led by exchanges

well take a look at this

bitcoin's 15 rally on the 13th of March

SAR large wallets large Bitcoin holding

wallets uh of uh wallets basically

holding between ten thousand to a

hundred thousand BTC

these wallets were the ones who

exchanged the most

and they are likely exchanges take a

look at this if we zoom in here you're

gonna see these are the small wallets

right these are us normies over here

small small small small

all the small wallets which hold less

than a thousand Bitcoin which could be

as much as a decimal of a Bitcoin one to

ten Bitcoin 10 to 100 Bitcoin up to a

thousand Bitcoin all of the small

wallets added during the banking crisis

which is fantastic but look at this

medium sized wallets dumped massively

the one to ten thousand uh crypto

wallets dumped and then what do you have

over here

the exchanges

pumping

so it makes me wonder well it seems easy

to explain the idea that hey banking

crisis let's all go to bitcoin well that

is what normal people did individuals

did exactly that they bought Bitcoin

during the banking crisis but it wasn't

just them it was exchanges who actually

ended up leading to the vast majority of

the trading volume right here pumping

Bitcoin on the 13th of March when the

banking crisis was occurring now that's

incredible because it makes you scratch

your head and wonder wait a second is it

possible that this is a total

manipulation and that CZ over at binance

are in complete control of what happens

with Bitcoin it is possible now there's

some more information here because take

a look at this total stable coin market

cap has been falling while BTC has been

rallying now that's weird because

usually you actually see stable coin

values go up in coordination with

Bitcoin going up tether the largest

stable coin has seen issuance go up 10

in the last month and 16 percent this

year but quote that has not been enough

to compensate for the reduction in other

stable coins notably busd and usdc over

half of all tether and and 70 percent of

recent uh hold on a sec over over half

of total us tether and seventy percent

of the recent issue has been created on

the Tron blockchain the company that's

now behind uh a subject of a lawsuit

with the SEC that's fine I don't know

that that so much matters right now I

mean the SEC is coming after crypto

period we know that but I want you to

think about this for a moment so banking

crisis happens and what happens people

think by BTC

but exchanges uh make the biggest moves

uh while dumping stable coins

into BTC

is this then engineering the pump that

people would expect potentially leading

more people to want to buy BTC and four

since binance controls eighty percent

plus of trading volume oops

doesn't it make sense as almost a free

advertisement

to pump BTC and then take 80 percent of

BTC flows

at binance

so there is a really clear crystal clear

argument here about uh this basically

crypto whales manipulating the market

now we're not saying that doesn't happen

in the normal Market but that's not a

defense you know that's like somebody

saying oh uh you know John murdered

Sally yeah well will murders people all

the time

then mean John murdering Sally was okay

that's a stupid argument

like just because there's fraud doesn't

mean it's okay to do your own fraud

it's crazy anyway

BTC trades similarly okay now we could

talk about the four-year cycle of BTC as

well but I think it's really interesting

because

while you're seeing stable coin issuance

go net down BTC is pumping where it

would make sense to pump it but

statistically it's actually The Exchange

is pumping it uh and and it yeah as hex

Flex here says it creates fake volume

exactly fake volume uh so take a look at

this over here crypto exchange traded

products and ETFs have actually seen

outflows despite bitcoin's price Rising

now that's also very interesting because

take a look at this if you go over here

and you say hey institutions like Banks

and money managers are saying we don't

want exposure to BTC then what you're

seeing is stable coin issuance go down

institutional money managers wealth

managers Banks individuals buying you

know crypto related exchange products

because you know we only have uh Futures

ETFs and stuff if you're seeing these go

down

then it seems like normal people really

don't have the power to actually make

moves in btc's pricing instead it just

happens to be people like CZ who are

able to at the drop of a hat say we're

just gonna dump a bunch of our stable

coin and we're gonna go buy Bitcoin

we're gonna go buy the debt okay that's

a little bit concerning though because

if the market is basically being propped

up by binance this chart right here by

the way shows you the trading volume

that binance has right look at this

binance share of BTC exchange trading

volume if you see this explosion here in

binance trading volume

then really what you're suggesting here

is binance basically owns Bitcoin they

basically own the market now this drives

me nuts as well they say this here A

word of caution on the reported data we

analyzed information on Exchange Bitcoin

Holdings based on Wallet information

provided by the exchanges to the markets

unfortunately when cross-checking the

data it left us with more questions than

answers I've had the same problem it

always seems like the wallet addresses

that we get from CZ only paint part of

the picture you don't get a full image

and part of this is because what the

exchanges keep doing is they keep making

new addresses so they have these massive

addresses and then they create a bunch

of smaller and mid-sized addresses and

they move stuff around like crazy

everybody says oh but the blockchain

it's transparent you can follow

everything perfectly it's not that easy

there's a reason why there are companies

that make tens of millions of dollars as

crypto analytic firms just to try to

trace what the hell is going on because

there are so many ways to obfuscate how

or where your money is actually going I

mean all you have to do is understand

the basics well a hopefully if you're

talking crypto hopefully you understand

the basics of cryptography but then B uh

hopefully you understand how simple it

is to manipulate wallet addresses using

services like service is similar to I

use this name even though it it closed

specifically because there are so many

others like it but everybody knows this

one like a tornado cash right it's very

easy to to hide uh your Trail so to

speak but anyway I find this fascinating

because to me it it sets up a risk

factor for BTC that essentially says uh

if look if in my opinion this is my

opinion let's make this very clear uh

first I think you should after all this

get life insurance in as little as five

minutes because there's a link down

below and it's awesome it's what Lauren

and I use and it's great second you know

if you want to make sure you can uh buy

some BTC over here you could actually do

that uh on uh weibull if you want uh go

to metcaven.com uh free and you can get

up to 12 free stocks on Weeble and if

you wanted to you could sell those

stocks and buy BTC uh if you want to

it's not personalized Financial advice

and yeah that's a paid sponsor but uh

let's go back in over here to my opinion

push that button and figure out where

the buttons are

okay so my opinion is as long as the

market

goes up uh that is this is going to be

the broader market right that is so

let's put the AKA inflation down rates

stable higher for longer doesn't mean

deep recession slash credit squeeze

then

it's possible

uh Bitcoin and binance will be just fine

but what they've done in the meantime is

they've lowered their risk uh uh um

or I should say their their protections

so they've actually increased their risk

right they've lowered their their Hedges

to risk so they've increased their Risk

by converting more stable coins to BTC

over at binance which happens to be an

exchange that controls over 80 percent

of the market

that's scary so that's something that's

really important to pay attention to now

uh you know some people in the comments

say you're late Kevin your fed won't

work what I think is phenomenal is

actually the four-year crypto cycle

before your crypto cycle has been

holding up and we might just be in the

midst of the next uh for your crypto

cycle I'll pull it up over here but it's

actually been doing quite well let me

see here where's that four year oh this

is time zones I'll explain times those

we'll go to the bullish part about the

four-year time cycle here in just a

moment if I could find the darn thing uh

anyway I'll find that in a moment but

what's interesting is I I really believe

and I feel so terrible for people two

more things we got to talk about by the

way we're going to talk about Bitcoin

ordinals uh time zones actually three

things ordinals time zones and then

we've got to talk

um the four year cycle but a quick note

I love it when people are like hey why

are you studying yeah that's all you do

they sound like babies like honestly if

you you use the word fud you sound like

an uneducated idiot and you should stop

using it as a friend I want to be able

to look at you in the eyes and say you

shouldn't use that phrase anymore

because it makes you sound like a

dumbass because fun is fear uncertainty

and doubt but you're using it in a way

that assumes it's fake news but fear

uncertainty and doubt are not fake news

they're actually important things for

you to be aware of like you got to be

aware that there's a counterparty risk

in stable coins as everybody today has

learned when brokerages have collapsed

so the same thing we talked about years

before brokerages collapsed and guess

what people then said

whatever whatever

stay Stupid

so anyway uh so take a look at this so

over here you have uh Bitcoin rallies by

time zone and I thought this was really

interesting because look at this you

have US time zones uh representing uh

most of the buying right here 40 percent

ish for Bitcoin buying and selling

occurs in U.S time zones AM and PM about

22 21 now what's interesting here is I

don't know that this necessarily means

these trades are occurring in the United

States

so

right here

I wrote the following it doesn't mean

that you couldn't schedule Bitcoin

trades in U.S time zones from the United

Arab Emirates where CZ happens to hang

out all the time because he's too afraid

to go to the United States because he's

going to get invested and he'll be just

as much as much of a top G as Andrew

Tate in jail

we'll see who knows Andrew could maybe

he's innocent we'll see all right here's

the four-year uh a Bitcoin cycle

so uh the next having is expected in

2024 and every one of the havings we've

had before what do we see we see these

massive collapses in uh the price of BTC

and that same kind of pattern is

unfolding right now and so it's entirely

possible that uh we are just on the next

bottoming process of the third having

cycle here and we potentially could on a

logarithmic scale move up to the next

scale point for BTC which that's that

number right here folks one hundred

thousand dollars per Bitcoin So based on

the logarithmic growth and the having

cycle pain that you get

it suggests and we it's too soon to tell

but it suggests that despite all of this

control that binance has or whatever all

these other facts that we know it's

entirely possible that we end up

creating the same uh price movement as

we have in Prior cycles and that could

mean BTC one hundred thousand so kind of

cool uh this here shows you a little bit

more of an illustration in terms of what

the having cycles look like uh and then

we gotta hit ordinals really quick so

these uh these Bitcoin nfts called

ordinals uh came out and some and these

right here where ordinals have been

created so these are creates for

ordinals and it's really interesting

that creates for ordinals aligns with

the uh the daily transaction count count

this is not a price here this is daily

transaction count for BTC so this is not

price but it's transaction count seems

to be pretty dang aligned with ordinals

so that's pretty interesting at the same

time the shorting for Bitcoin exchange

traded products have actually remained

pretty high uh despite bitcoin's price

rise so haven't really been uh squeezed

there the shorts haven't really been

squeezed there it was so quite

interesting I actually think the biggest

takeaway for me out of this whole

article is that you can now use buy now

pay later on the programs on building

your wealth link down below now just

like I don't right now invest in crypto

and I don't have any intentions to right

now I think there are plenty of other

deals and stocks I don't recommend you

use buy now pay later services but so

many of you have been asking me to

enable that and I was able to get into a

beta and now 50 of you using buy now pay

later to join those programs which I

think is sort of like at a grocery store

like even though I don't take vitamins

maybe I should I don't know maybe I'm

missing something I don't know uh even

though I don't take vitamins if I was

running a grocery store I'd probably

still sell Vitamins because well you've

got to make money survive so anyway

those are some things to consider and a

big bottom line out of all of this for

me is binance controls the BTC Market a

lot more than I expected a lot and I

don't know how I feel about that because

honestly I don't really trust CZ uh I

think uh you know when he tells us we've

got all this money in seifu I remember

tweeting out going really where's all

the money it's like half of what you're

saying it is in fairness he did end up

topping it off I'm not sure if he saw my

tweet or other people saw it or somebody

else's tweet on it and they ended up

fixing the problem but they ended up

fixing the problem so good for them

right they topped off their safety fund

but then I don't believe them when they

say that all of their assets are backed

one to one because I think they're using

the same dollars to back multiple

different assets one to one quite

frankly I think they got lucky that BTC

didn't go lower than 15 000 because I

think if BTC ended up hitting a low of

nine I don't think binance would have

ended up being able to survive uh the

crash they would have likely collapsed

as well and if binance represents 80

percent of of trading volumes that's

scary so in my opinion that always goes

to the bottom line of not your keys not

your crypto if you don't have your

private key you are going to probably at

some point in the future in the crypto

World lose your money so if you want to

use the exchanges go for it just get

your money off out of them that's my

opinion uh you know in non-personalized

financial advice terms not your keys not

your crypto I think is the biggest

lesson out of all of it and look there

are a lot of people throughout the world

they don't have another choice they have

to use binance

but at least no potentially what could

be pumping up bitcoin's price here

recently could potentially be binance

ironically making their platform even

riskier I didn't even think it was

possible to make binance even riskier

but that's basically what they're doing