The End.

hey everyone me kevin here and hi lauren

there's meet lauren tim leave comments

tell her to make videos again you gotta

make videos again you hear that yeah

yeah all right we gotta convince her

okay i don't have a lot of time uh

quickly though i wanna give you uh a few

just some things to pay attention to uh

the most important thing right now

that's in my opinion uh something that's

actually somewhat bullish on the horizon

follows what the president uh bost

president bostik of the federal reserve

one of the presidents one of the bank

presidents said uh one of the things

that he talked about was that he's not

convinced that we have to go with that

50 bp hike in september then instead we

could be going with a 25 bp hike this

has completely changed the rate monitors

futures and it's affecting treasury

yields more people are feeling more

confident right now to move from stocks

and dump into bonds because they view

that if well if we don't go with 50 in

september and we go 25 for the rest of

the year we're only going to get to like

2.5 or 2.75 by the end of the year we'll

barely be above neutral we won't end up

getting to three percent and in other

words markets are thinking huh does that

potentially mean there could be a

ceiling on treasury yields let's flee

stocks let's get into treasury yields

for safety right now that's why we're

seeing the 10-year plummet all the way

down to like the 2.7 range right now and

we're seeing a lot of pain in stocks

because people are like oh my gosh after

a snap and the complete disaster of snap

uh and leaving basically all the online

consumer discretionaries to go down

looking obviously google uh and not just

snap but google pinterest trade desk you

name it they're all getting whacked

because i mean you've even got the best

buy ceo saying like yeah no we've we're

slowing down okay things are slowing

down a lot more than we thought all

these things combined are suggesting

that okay well if there's a limit to

what the fed's doing let's go hide in

treasuries let's get out of stocks while

we wait for essentially that sort of

consumer discretionary bottom and we see

what happens with consumers that's

leading treasury yields to fall because

again people buy those prices goes up

and uh and then the yields come

come down with it uh when prices go up

yields go down right this is the

opposite of how my courses on building

your wealth work down below where as the

price goes up the yield that you get

goes up because you get more value over

time as we add content remember there is

a code expiring at the end of the month

for that and then we're going to have

our finally our largest price increase

ever we did extend that a little bit

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but i most importantly just want to say

watch that fed rate monitor because the

more we see the potential for a ceiling

guess what happens the more we get

evidence

that we're not going to get paul volcker

now i know that my optimism right now

might feel misplaced because the market

is like on fire right i was just adding

up i'm like oh i bought some more shares

i'm liking my q right now right because

my quantity of the shares i'm buying is

going up and it's great and i just

closed another couple properties and i'm

just taking the money i'm just dumping

into this market i'm like yes this is an

opportunity i'm down to like 1.1 in

margin too which is great because then i

think one more deal closes and i'm

completely at a margin which i'm super

excited about but anyway i'm buying and

the reason i'm so optimistic about this

fed path is because even just this

discussion of the market now pricing in

a lower chance of that 50 bp in

september and the fed talking about not

going 50 in september what this is

telling us is we're not looking at a

paul volcker if we were looking at a

paul volcker situation where inflation's

eight percent they're gonna raise rates

to nine percent you should be so far

away from stocks uh that that i mean

there's just like basically they're

gonna go to zero like you're gonna see

90 declines in like everything right uh

nobody wants a paul volcker again and i

actually think the market has gotten too

fearful that we're going to get paul

volcker that inflation's not going to go

down but if i really believe that like

if the wage price spiral from january

continued and we kept seeing inflation

continue to go up in addition to core

and we didn't actually start seeing a

decline in inflation like we're seeing

now with apparel used cars computer

goods tvs and so on and so forth i would

not be in this market now i know i got

in a little bit early but hey hey you

know what i think this is a

phenomenal opportunity and what we're

seeing in that fed right rate pricing

which you could just type this into

google if you want to see it yourself

type in uh investing because the

website's investing.com and then fed

rate monitor and then you can look at

the probabilities it'll tell you like

what was the probability of a a larger

rate hike in september last week

compared to this week and it's down

substantially like the market's really

moving on this and that's why we're

seeing treasury yields move but again

obviously the stock market's moving down

because of snap and the substantial fear

that we now have a much weaker consumer

than previously thought and basically

all future guidance is just gonna get

screwed so anyway uh for me it's an

opportunity uh in the short term though

for any kind of hope we could

potentially give you it's solely just

that hey you know what hopefully

hopefully hopefully hopefully we stay

the course

inflation starts going down june july

august we start seeing those reports

obviously a month later and then we get

a fed that says yeah you know what we're

good like we actually don't have to keep

doing 50s and we don't have to volcker

we don't have to go so substantially

above neutral uh but but but but

do still think the housing market is in

for a rough ride towards the end of this

year new home sales came out this

morning disaster like down 17

substantially under expectations and i'm

like yeah i tweeted on which follow me

on twitter if you don't yet already at

real me kevin i'm like yeah this is this

is the beginning this is where it starts

anyway i'll come back with another

update later lauren's getting mad at me

i see her in the mirror over there and i

gotta go and see him