FINALLY - The Stock Market FLIP is HERE.

laid off one third of their Virginia

Beach Workforce without notice by

sending them a mass text message that

they had eight minutes to leave and be

met outside by police next coupon

expiration is August 31st for both

Financial advice at stackhack.com

personalized Financial advice or those

courses on building your wealth with the

daily access to q a course member

fundamental analysis and much more check

those out link below holy moly it's

finally happened the joltz numbers have

come in deliciously we're hearing of

more layoffs especially in manufacturing

we've got some things to cover regarding

Nvidia Google and what this has to do

with JPMorgan as well as touching on of

course a little bit on Enphase Tesla and

even Best Buy so let's just get some of

these important things out of the way

look this morning we got the jolts

report and it has the market moving

positively the impact so far is being

felt in that we're seeing a steepening

of the yield curve that's what you want

you want the yield curve to go

uninverted without paying the stock

market though usually that doesn't

happen we're still negative 70 as six

basis points inverted The Five-Year

break even down to 2.21 uh five year

forward still at about 2.34 if you don't

know what those numbers are just think

about the closer they are to two the

better because that's what the fed's

goal is but also remember the FED in

their back pocket has a policy called

flexible average inflation targeting so

as long as we're relatively close to two

they could just say look in the decade

before the pandemic we were a little

under and a decade after we're a little

above as long as on balance we're

roughly two we're good we don't have to

Paul volcker or destroy the economy it's

a way of saying inflation expectations

are anchored one of the reasons they are

anchored is because the jolts numbers

that we got this morning we had a survey

of 9.5 million job openings remember

joltz is the jobs opening and labor

turnover survey it also gives you some

insight into how many people are

quitting usually a higher number of

quits is a sign that people are

confident in the job market that they

can get another job but as job openings

compress that confidence usually Falls

and what we found over the last few

years is that people were quitting and

getting a new job on average ended up

making more money somewhere else because

there was so much demand for labor or

that's finally starting to wane we used

to be at a ratio of two job openings for

every unemployed person well as Nick T

has aptly pointed out this morning that

has fallen to the lowest level since

September of 2021 we are now sitting at

just

1.51 job openings per unemployed worker

in America this number came in by the

way again we were expecting 9.5 mil we

got

8.827 if you remember my video this

weekend where I gave you a heads up I

said look we need a number under nine

that was my goal I'm like if we could

just get a number under nine we could

finally tell the FED these darn lagging

jobs indicators are finally starting to

catch up and that's exactly what we got

so praise the Lord or whomever this is

great news there's still plenty of jobs

for people who are unemployed but we are

finally trending in the correct

direction this is a chart showing you

the three-month moving average so that's

why it's not under the nine figure

otherwise it would be over here if it

were a one month chart and then this

shows you the number of job openings to

unemployed this is finally reiterating

as you can see it's been volatile but

it's finally reiterating the downtrend

this is actually probably one of the

best adult jolts reports for the market

that we've had in quite a while but it's

not just that that we need to talk on we

need to talk on what else is happening

because when we start looking around the

rest of the environment and the economy

there are real levels of pain consider

what just happened at Steele the

chainsaw Manufacturing Company they're a

German company in the darn Germans I'm

allowed to say that because I'm German

the darn Germans just laid off one third

of their Virginia Beach Workforce

without notice by sending them a mass

text message that they had eight minutes

to leave and be met outside by police

the company total but blamed high

inventory and reduced demand for having

to essentially reduce labor and this is

actually kind of similar to what we're

hearing at a lot of different companies

uh most notably this morning Best Buy so

here's Best Buy's earnings call I

regularly go through earnings calls

especially in our course member live

streams where we do fundamental analysis

every day on real estate and stocks

because we learn really important things

like take a look at this Best Buy says

we are still very early in the process

and are testing different promotional

offers to determine what resonates most

with consumers and continuously improve

the digital experience they're basically

telling you hey look we don't really

know how to sell in this environment

people are buying less than they used to

and macro is very uncertain it creates

headwinds for us including student loan

repayment and we don't exactly know

what's going to happen but we now expect

sales to be even lower than we

previously guided at the midpoint and

part of that is because of lower demand

across the board but they are saying and

I'm just I put a little outline over

here they're seeing stabilization in

gaming slight pressure on credit losses

from credit cards laptops flat back to

school was slightly better than expected

so that gives you a little bit of a

category breakdown but still hardship in

various different areas they are seeing

disinflation in Supply chains that's

where they're seeing where they used to

see a lot of inflation but they're

actually seeing that go away now of

course they're still seeing some

pressures from uh like ground

transportation in terms of inflation but

they definitely say this is actually a

more promotional environment than it has

been on a year-over-year basis in

addition to being a more promotional

environment they're getting more

manufacturing promotions which is

basically where the manufacturers are

like look okay we need to get out more

product so we can keep people employed

so why don't we just call it Best Buy

and go yo look Best Buy uh we'll give

you guys like we'll basically sell you

the product for less money so that way

you can sell it for less and we can get

it off the shelf when you keep

manufacturing this is actually leading

to this quote which I thought was pretty

remarkable the promotional environment

in some cases is higher or more intense

than it was in 2019

and then they qualify that by saying but

you're getting more vendor funding so

hopefully that helps our margins a

little bit in other words like Hey we're

dropping prices but we're not taking all

of the hit is what Best Buy is trying to

say they're basically trying to say

please don't dump our stock because uh

uh you know we're we're getting money

from other people so we should be okay

right

anyway uh so the other thing that we

want to touch on is what's going on you

know Google announced it another AI

product this morning uh and as is normal

when Google announces an AI product it's

usually Nvidia that does quite well so

Google actually up at the moment 2.2

percent and Nvidia is up about three

percent Tesla's up about 4.4 uh and this

is to be expected JP Morgan for example

expects to spend over a billion dollars

in artificial intelligence

infrastructure spend uh over the next

few years and I think what we have to

remember that's really remarkable about

this is who is actually able to spend

money right now and the people who are

able to spend money right now aren't

necessarily your everyday consumers they

are the Enterprise customers the big

Banks the big companies like Tesla that

are like Hey we're going to install this

massive rack of Nvidia gpus h100s

because is we have the money to spend on

capex we can move that money to h100s

get the best data center servers we can

for dealing with artificial intelligence

and boom we win consumers don't have

that luxury instead consumers are much

more like all right we're gonna have to

be a little more choosy like Kevin give

me your real value proposition here for

your courses it's understand it's

lifetime access to the live streams and

future content in the individual courses

I might buy access to house hack but

come on Kevin you know what else you got

for me hey you know what whatever you

need if there's something you think

that's missing send us an email at staff

and meet kevin.com a lot of people right

now by the way are finding the best deal

is bundling stocks and psych and real

estate zero to Mill especially since

that real estate depth that price

decline we've seen year over year did

end up hitting 10 to 15 in some markets

but a lot of markets have already

started recovering from that and are

starting to go slightly positive I'm

seeing a lot of markets negative one

percent positive of one percent so there

are definitely a lot of opportunities in

real estate and without my company house

hack uh we're about to be in escrow on

our third potentially fourth wedge deal

each with over a hundred thousand

dollars in equity after repaired after

expenses after everything which is

insane because I mean these are just

like picking up 20 coupons uh as as

you're going around and this is actually

what I teach in the courses that's

because I have an abundance mindset and

I believe that there's plenty for

everybody especially when you're taking

properties that are not livable and

bringing them back to the market however

this does of course bring up the

question of what about end phase so end

phase is a really interesting one

because on one hand and face is a

consumer play as well right and phase

where lies on an individual home owner

to decide to purchase a product to

decide to install a solar panel system

and unfortunately right now most

people's ability to finance these Solar

Systems is is very limited home equity

land of credit are becoming more popular

so that is good news that's a Tailwind

for solar but the interest rates are

high so people who are calculating their

breakevens are like ah you know it's

it's harder to justify doing solar

because rates are so much higher now

this is of course leading to some

compression in the EPS expected for end

phase and phase right now is trading at

127 dollars per share if we divide that

by about the five dollars of eps we're

expecting by the end of the year you're

sitting at about a 25.4 times earnings

multiple which is probably one of the

lowest multiples we've seen for end

phase in quite a while but most

importantly we should evaluate the

growth still projected by Wall Street

we're looking at next year 2024 30

growth this is really where we're going

to get our Tailwinds from that inflation

reduction Act and the stimulus followed

by 29.6 11 and 18 those are the numbers

based on Wall Street expectations and if

we divide the those numbers by four

we'll get an average growth rate of

about 22.15

well if we take that 25 p e and divide

it by 2215 we're really trading at about

a 1.13 PEG ratio for end phase if I lost

you on that let's just put it this way

it's really really low in other words

appetite 4 and phase right now is kind

of like what Tesla was when Tesla was

somewhere around 110 dollars and this is

where it's sort of weird because on one

hand it's like ah it's you we want to

kind of invest where Enterprise is not

necessarily the consumer but on the flip

side

this is like the dog in terms of

valuation nobody's touching it watch

this okay let's take Tesla so Tesla for

example right now is selling for 250 a

share so if I go 250 and divide them by

this year's EPS of 337 Tesla's selling

for 74 times okay but we're going to

take that 74 times and we're going to

divide it by uh their growth rate over

the next four years that's expected the

Wall Street expected growth rate which

we might think it's a little higher I

personally think it's going to be

between 30 to 35 percent right but if we

take the growth rate for Tesla over the

next four years based on what Wall

Street thinks Wall Street thinks it's

going to be 28.85 okay 74 divided by

28.85 that puts you at a PEG ratio of

2.5 twice as expensive as end face

you could do the same thing with Nvidia

or some of these other companies right

Nvidia uh just to look at it quickly

you're at about a 48 p e ratio right now

based on 10 and 24 cents of VPS by the

end of the year honestly they'll

probably beat that and take that 48 and

divide it by about 30 growth you're

sitting at a peg of 1.6 so Nvidia is

actually a better deal right now than

Tesla and end phase potentially unless

Tesla can really get their growth rate

up now what about end face is it

possible that they don't grow next year

as expected yes however that would

assume that interest rates don't come

down so really what you're looking for

is if you don't really care about

interest rates you think we're gonna

have higher for longer Nvidia is

probably a really good bet for higher

for longer because your Enterprise

customers are going to keep spending if

you think interest rates are going to

come down and the stock market needs to

start pricing in interest rates coming

down probably some of your best plays

are going to be the end phase and the

Teslas of the world you because these

are going to have massive Tailwinds from

interest rates coming down especially

people taking on variable rate loan home

equity lines of credit they'll buy today

expecting that interest rates will come

down going forward now not suggesting as

personal financial advice you should do

that I'm not a big fan of borrowing you

know I'm not a big fan of people using

buy now pay later or otherwise but these

are all things that people end up using

and so if you personally by the way want

Financial advice you want to get your

personal portfolio analyzed everything

in your financial situation analyzed

we're doing a sort of startup offer in

terms of what we can offer you as

licensed financial advisors it's a

really good holistic review of

everything that you've got going on in

your financial life and we'll give you

pointers on how what basically I would

do in your situation as a licensed

financial advisor this isn't oh this is

what Kevin would do as Kevin in your

world it's what would I do in your shoes

as you right so check that offering out

at stackhack.com that's obviously

different from the courses because this

is one-on-one check that out

stackhack.com thanks so much and we'll

see you soon good luck out there

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people looked up to

you which I say yes meet Kevin where

does this mean we are in the economic

cycle should we be thinking about buying

real estate should we be thinking about

buying stocks I have a background in

real estate as a real estate agent real

estate broker real estate investor a

stock market investor and fund manager

why not advertise these things that you

told us here we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes always

great to have you on Kevin path right

there financial analyst and YouTuber

meet Kevin