Elon Musk’s MASSIVE Price Drop is Coming.

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everyone me Kevin here get ready for a

massive price reduction request coming

to the Twitter deal personally I think

the Twitter deal is going to get cut by

31 that would bring the Twitter share

price that is the deal price down from

54.20 54.20 down to just 69 of that

value to about

37.40 that's my estimation why am I

saying that well take a look at this

article today from The Washington Post

The Washington Post says that this is a

Washington Post exclusive that Elon

musk's deal to buy Twitter is in Peril

and this is what I love three people

familiar with the matter said well maybe

those individuals her Elon Musk his

brother and his attorney

who knows the point is these sorts of

leaks are planned and I'm going to go

through not only what the article said

but some other additional commentary as

well because there are a lot of folks

who like to say why doesn't Elon just

honor his deal he made a deal he should

go through with his contract what we're

going to talk about exactly that so

first what does the article tell us tell

us well it tells us that number one at

the moment Elon Musk and the team have

stopped engaging in discussions around

financing the 44 billion dollar deal you

know this is important that Elon Musk

has paused his fundraising beyond the 32

billion dollars he's already said that

he's raised here's why right now

Twitter's share price is selling for

about 37 to 37.50

that means if you bought the Twitter

stock today at let's say 37.50 sense it

would have to go up 45 percent to get to

54.20 if the deal goes through that

means you could potentially get a 45

gain if the deal goes through at full

price the stock market right now is

telling you that's unlikely and by Elon

pausing additional funding it implies

that he's either going to walk away from

the deal maybe he truly is pausing the

deal or he's going to renegotiate and

doesn't actually need more money given

that he's already raised about 69

percent of the capital that he needs and

Twitter share price is selling for 31

below where the deal was originally

officiated it's in my opinion very

likely that Elon Musk is going to be

asking for 31 price reduction all the

way to about 69 percent of the original

deal value but we learned a little bit

more but I just want to make it clear

that on a funding perspective and on

what what the stock market is saying

price wise both align with Elon asking

for somewhere between a 30 to 31 percent

strike off of this deal or price

reduction basically we also heard that

quote talks with investors have cool and

that's because the firehouse or fire

hose rather of information that Twitter

said they would give Elon Musk to verify

spam Bots has actually created more

doubts for Elon and elon's team and

they've gone as far as saying that the

information Twitter has provided hasn't

actually verified Twitter's claim that

only five percent of users are Bots now

Elon Musk did agree to a one billion

dollar breakup fee that means if Elon

Musk just decides to walk away from the

deal he has to pay Twitter one billion

dollars which he's unlikely to want to

do this is why I think rather than just

walking away from the deal Elon Musk is

likely to pressure for a price reduction

that way he can draw out the negotiation

and process he's not walking away from

the deal so he's not giving up the one

billion dollars yet instead he can buy

Time by renegotiating a lower price now

Twitter might be motivated to say no now

we're going to sue you for that one

billion dollars they're not going to get

that one billion dollars automatically

but that kind of lawsuit would leave a

lot of overhang for Twitter stock would

probably create a lot of stress for the

board and executive staff and create

more distractions for the company and

actually hurt the company by more than

the tune of a billion dollars now is

Elon Musk being dishonest for

potentially wanting to ask for a price

reduction here in my opinion the answer

to this is a hard no the reason for that

is simple when you make a contract you

make a contract under the belief that

both sides are providing honest

information however if Twitter says Bots

are five percent maybe a little bit more

and the reality is that Bots on the

platform are actually 25 or 50 percent

of the users on the platform then elon's

been misled and this is only information

that he could really discover through

his business Discovery within the actual

deal now we know that earlier in the

process Elon Musk quote waived due

diligence in putting together the

transaction but if red flags pop up that

indicate that information that Elon Musk

was originally basing his opinion on

have now created a material change in

the underlying value of the company then

Elon Musk should be at least within his

right to argue that he should not suffer

a one billion dollar breakup fee and

instead Twitter should either give him

his money back or

lower the price my guess is based on

where Twitter is trading right now the

Market's telling us this deal is

probably going to go through with about

a 30 to 31 price drop to about 69 of the

original deal volume or ordeal agreed

price and this lines up with how much

money Elon Musk has already raised and a

30 to 31 reduction likely also

represents the overstatement of users

that is if Elon thought there were five

percent Bots and were really a 35 Bots

that seems like it would be a fair

compensation for that reality unless of

course Twitter wants to clean up their

uh their statistics and the way they

provide information but if they do that

they might have to go back and change

their SEC disclosures and they end up in

the same place so again I want to be

clear here I personally think and I've

said this since it started I think the

Arbitrage between the Twitter share

price today and 54.20 is a mirage I

think it's a very risky investment and

it's not one that I'm making I do own

one Twitter share because I was gifted

that but beyond that this is not an

Arbitrage play that I want to make and I

think elon's going to be dropping the

bomb for a big negotiation and a price

reduction of at least 30 percent in fact

he might even start with a price

reduction of 50 at least a request of 50

so that way there's more pressure on the

stock price and maybe Twitter will meet

him in the middle or he'll certainly end

up getting 30 percent that's my

expectation we'll see let me know what

you think in the comments down below now

I do also want to just address like hey

is this me just trying to be negative

about the Twitter deal because I want to

see Tesla go up personally I I think

those are relatively disconnected so and

I've said this many times on the channel

before like I hear a lot of people are

like oh well you know if Elon buys

Twitter it's gonna be distracted I

actually think the Twitter deal would be

positive for Tesla so I kind of hope the

deal goes through because I think Tesla

is probably going to get easy licensing

agreements for re really good language

learning algorithms which Elon Musk

would likely Institute or create for not

only fighting spam but also for

moderating free speech and content which

I think will be very very important to

the future of robots and neural uh

artificial intelligence essentially for

uh for vocalization and for speech I

think those those are critical and so I

think Twitter is a great opportunity for

that not necessarily wanting the world

to be run by very sarcastic and trolley

style people that are robots but I think

Twitter will give some serious language

learning opportunities

especially since we could see sentiment

change

immediately in almost real time right

for example we could get breaking news

on a story and we can see how sentiment

and emotions change over time and these

are all huge learning opportunities so

you've got this combination of emotion

and news on Twitter that really in a

text-based context you don't have in

many other places you'd have to

transcribe videos which is possible to

do but is more complicated than just

using the text that people are writing

right so I don't know I'm fascinated by

the Twitter opportunities for language

learning especially since hey 140

characters on Twitter small file sizes

can all fit on a little thumb drive