*Worst* Data in 34 Years | Recession Imminent.

Things are getting really weird. In this

video, we are going to break down

multiple topics, including Tom Barkin

from the Richmond Federal Reserve

telling us what's going wrong in the

economy and what's going right. We're

going to talk about how Oracle is

literally underwater on their $300

billion deal as well. We're going to

talk about what is leading a potential

leading indicator for the worst

recession and the worst data that we

have seen yet, which is very bearish.

This is very very bearish. But don't

worry, at least it's bullish because you

could look at Blue Owl, who apparently

is the private credit firm that is

putting together the financing for

Meta's uh data center boom. And because

they're putting that financing together,

their public feeder funds are collapsing

in value to the point where this ticker

OBDC

is literally trading for about 78 cents

on the dollar compared to net asset

value. Uh because people are and then

this is the main company right here. Owl

is also selling off down 40% this year

because people are starting to write

down that this company may be writing

pretty crappy loans and that the private

credit bubble is just starting to burst

and Blue Owl might be one of the biggest

uh let's say uh participants. Nobody

knows private credit better than Blue

Owl.

So with that said, let's get started

with the juice. First, we're going to

start with this report from the Southern

Business Development Magazine. This has

been circulating a lot, and it's a

report that I think to some extent you

have to take with a little bit of a

grain of salt because it only represents

the South, but it's pretty intense and

it gives us some pretty ugly warnings.

The SBND is reporting that economic

development project activity in the

American South, the world's third

largest economy, is at the lowest point

of any year since they started

collecting data in 1994.

They actually say that deal making

activity in the region is worse than

what they saw during COVID and in 2025.

And I hate to say it, but look at the

the the deal volume years and when they

had bad deals. So look, good years, 730

deals about 700, 680, about 670, about

630. Those were good years, okay? And

then look at the years. 2015, 16, 17,

14, 1997, right? Those were the good

ones.

Now look at the bad years. These were

the worst years. 2021, 364 deals. 2009

367 deals. That was a recession. This

was right after COVID and this was the

recession, right? Then you have the

dotcom bubble, 409 deals. 2008, global

financial crisis, 429 deals. How many

deals this year?

Oh, wait. Then we got 2021 right here,

447. How many deals this year?

274.

Now, obviously they're estimating

because the year isn't completely done

just yet, but so far we are on pace for

the absolute worst year in the history

that these statistics have been

collected for dealmaking in the south.

And they give us some pretty nasty

warning signs, especially what's going

on in autos. Mind you, I think right now

is a terrible time to finance a car

because rates are high and for you to

get the interest deduction, you actually

need to pay the interest rate, which is

kind of dumb. But anyway, what they say

is that this is the worst 6-month period

in the South's uh modern economic

development in history. And if deals

like this are cratering in the South,

then they're probably much worse in the

Midwest uh West and Northeast. Now, I

don't necessarily agree with that

because you do have this, you know,

potential uh, you know, boom from AI in

the West that might not exactly be

happening in the south, but okay, the US

and China, you know, these are other

GDPs. Okay, so if we're talking about

the South sucking wind by a der of

deals, then the rest of the United

States must barely be breathing in job

creation. Now, we're going to reconcile

that with what Barkin says in just a

moment from the Richmond Fed. But

anyway, our experience has shown that

anytime we see what we're seeing now,

including one, headquarter relocations

and to the auto market, a recession

isn't too far away. In fact, they say

that typically headquarters move in poor

economic conditions. When and and they

make the argument that usually when the

economy is booming, you don't need to

move your headquarters to a cheaper

location. When you go into a recession,

that's when you see the most headquarter

moves. And that's what we're seeing now.

It happens in every recession to the

point that headquarter moves and bad

times are common to us. But the fact is,

we're still not technically in a

recession. And we have not had a lot of

layoffs so far. Now, of course, as they

say, I'm afraid the layoffs have not

happened yet. This is why we always talk

about layoffs, how important it is to

track layoffs. So far, maybe so good.

You don't really want to look at the

challenger job cuts report, though,

because the challenger job cuts report

says that this, you know, so far so good

may not last that long. Take a look at

this. If you look at the challenger job

cuts report, we said not only did

individual companies announce large

layoff totals in October, but a higher

number of companies announce job cut

plans. Challenger tracked nearly 450

individual job cut plans in October. So,

how many companies are planning to fire

thousands of workers potentially?

compared to just under 400 in September

and 350 in March. October's total is the

highest total for a month in terms of

layoffs since October 2003.

So, highest October layoffs since 2003.

And and that was after the Federal

Reserve was printing money. People keep

thinking that the Fed's going to bail us

out by printing. They will, but it'll

take way longer than people think. So,

that's back when they were printing. uh

you know we had the largest layoffs back

then in 2003. You know now we're not

even at the printing press yet and we

have the highest layoff plans coming.

But then they go on as far as saying not

only do we you know see this lack of

dealmaking which can't be good for jobs

but we also see the some of the worst

numbers for the automotive industry

suggesting that the automotive industry

is the canary in the coal mine when it

comes to recessions that tend to follow

within months of the industry's

collapse. Now, they do argue that we're

not saying a collapse in the Great

Recession is imminent. We're simply

reporting that the automotive sector in

the South has been a no-show in deals so

far this year. And the automotive

industry is always the first industry to

crater in a recession. And automotive is

almost always the first sector to emerge

to help lift us out of a recession.

Okay. Well, so far automotive deals

aren't great. It's very difficult to

sell cars right now. Uh but anyway, you

know, then they they try to, you know,

look at their data. They're like,

"What's going on here?" And they

basically realize, "This sucks. We're

doing really bad in terms of data." And

then, of course, the worst prior deals

were during the Great Recession uh or

COVID, and we're even worse than this.

And then, of course, the author of this

talks to other people, says, "What's

going on here?" And they just write back

and go, "Tick tick tick."

Huh. That's a little eerie. But if we

then jump on over to what Barkin says,

Barkin, he gives us some broad overview

about how we collect data and how we

survey community leaders and how when we

survey community leaders, we can kind of

see things that are happening before

they show up in big data. And here's

what he's seeing. He says, "So far data

remains healthy and that some of the bad

levels of uncertainty are abating." Both

of those things are good and bullish,

right? And he also says, "So far, credit

and debit card spending remains solid in

the context of low employment and high

stocks." That's actually a little bit of

a warning right here because if

unemployment goes up, credit and debit

card spending falls. If the stock market

falls, then you probably also get

spending falls like spending that

declines via the wealth effect heavily

in part because of boomer wealth. A lot

of people who have retired early. In

fact, there are estimates that we have

around 2.4 4 million early retirees in

the United States that could end up

showing up back for work if there's a

recession. And if they show up back for

work, the participation rate will

skyrocket, which then skyrockets the

unemployment rate, which would also be

bad. But anyway, uh he says there's sort

of a K-shaped economy here. If you build

data centers or you sell to high income

consumers, you're good. But if you're a

farmer, a realtor, or a manufacturer,

you're struggling. Now remember, the

realtor problem has to do with volume,

right? When volumes are depressed,

realtors make fewer commissions. People

always I always thought it was funny as

you know like people would be like, "Oh,

the realtor just wants to sell the house

for 10 grand more so they can make more

of a commission." And it's like like

what a couple hundred bucks like they

want to get the home sold, you know,

that's what matters. Uh so so typically

you want volume when you're an agent,

right? You're going to go with an

average deal volume and you're going to

want volume or average deal value.

Anyway, employment growth on the other

hand, he says, is soft. We're describing

it as a low, high, or low fire

environment. Now, layoffs so far are

stable and low as signaled by jobless

claims. I wrote a little note here that

that's alone keeping us out of a

recession. Now, I hate to say it, but

what happened with unemployment claims

literally this morning? I hate to say

it, but look at this.

uh number receiving unemployment

benefits highest since August. So in

other words, we've already started to

see an uptake in unemployment claim

filings with now 232,000 coming out.

Now the real problem with unemployment

claims is that they're massively

lagging. So if the unemployment claims

numbers actually really start drifting

even higher, it's way too late. If you

look at unemployment claims in the

context of recessions, they always peak

when the recession is nearly over. Now,

we're not near a peak, but they start

like midway through a recession. So, you

could already be in a recession right

now, and layoffs will be the nail in the

coffin, and then that gets the Federal

Reserve to print money. The problem is

you'll have a stock market correction

between now and the bottom, but that

could be actually an opportunity to go

buy cheaper, right? This is why in our

alpha report where we have a coupon code

expiring tomorrow, I sent yesterday,

well actually it was this morning. I

sent a sell alert for here's how much I

sold and here's what I'm buying. And

even though I am buying the dip, I'm

moving a lot of money out of a certain

stock certain stocks and throwing that

uh into cash and some other stocks,

right? And so we talk about that in the

alpha report. We do our fundamental

analysis on a daily basis. I encourage

you to join. Uh you pay once, you get

lifetime access. Just go to meet me

kevin.com, use coupon code NVDA.

NVDA like uh like Nvidia.

>> Coupon linked below.

>> Bullish catalyst.

>> Anyway, so uh Barkin says that layoffs

so far are good and so far nothing's

changed much. Now, this was an

interesting line. He says, "Our outreach

suggests a somewhat weaker labor market

than the numbers suggest. If you ask

businesses how the labor market is, they

say it's balanced, but it doesn't seem

balanced when you actually listen to

what they're saying." Now, this is a

this is a warning from Barkin. You know,

this is uh uh not the best. Like, he's

he's he's laying this up for you. I hate

to say it. He's he's giving you a layup

here. He's like, "Look, as long as

layoffs don't jump, we're good.

Unemployment claims are already jumping,

but we know those are really lagging

indicators. So maybe those aren't

reliable." And businesses are telling us

everything is fine, but the more we

look, the more we're like, uh,

things are not fine. Now, what's

interesting if you actually go look at

the hawk and dove scale, which I just

pulled up, you'll find that Barkin is

actually considered a centrist.

Now, that's interesting because we

already know that the people who are

doves right here are going to want cuts

like Myronin and Waller. We already know

that they want cuts. But Barkin actually

sits right here as a centrist. Now, he's

nowhere near as, you know, the hawk of

somebody like Foolsby, Goulsby or uh,

you know, Schmid or Hammock. nowhere

near the Hawk that they are, but by

being in the middle and him like

slightly telling you, uh, yeah.

Um, this is not good. Um, you know, it's

a little bit of a warning sign. You

should be paying attention to this. You

This is where I always say like it's

really important not to just read the

titles is how how like people then

complain. They're like, "Kevin, it takes

you like 20 minutes to go through all

this content." I like well yeah it's a

lot of stuff and like how it also takes

a long time to put it all together but

it teaches us the nuance like there's so

much value and nuance that you don't get

scrolling you know Tik Tok or X because

you know most things are engagement bait

uh to to unfortunately mislead you uh

whereas my goal is always to say hey

like look at the content in detail and

then then you are prepared you know

maybe you're paying off margin maybe

you're raising cash maybe you're making

sure that you're watching those

unemployment claim numbers or layoff

numbers so that you are prepared to

transition. I know there are a lot of

transition I know there are a lot of

people who are like I'm ready to pull my

credit lines, you know, because banks

freeze credit lines in recessions and so

yeah, I think that's a valid thing to

watch for. I don't think you have to

pull your credit line yet just to sit on

it, but that was a very common thing

during the recession. Very, very common.

Uh our outreach suggests a somewhat

weaker labor market, right? We saw this.

So, so and then of course layoff

announcements from Verizon, Target, and

Amazon increase cause for for caution.

Exactly.

Exactly. So, uh and then of course we've

got meaningful, you know, tariff

pressures. So, we've got some

inflationary tariffs. We're we're

driving this boat and we have limited

visibility and the lighthouse is off.

Blah blah blah blah blah. Okay, fine. So

now you have to kind of take that,

which you know that's not great, right?

But you have to take that and you have

to now reconcile that with what's going

on with all this financing crap. Now

Oracle apparently they say is underwater

on the $300 billion deal. That's not

just because credit default swaps are

increasing, which they continue to

increase. You can see right here the

cost to insure against the default at

Oracle is increasing. And Oracle is

nasty. You know, we've done we did

fundamental analysis on Oracle in the

alpha report. You could actually see it

under our stock tab. We have a uh a

stock tab in the meet Kevin app for

course members. And it's interesting

because, you know, you could just drop

down on the side and like pick a stock

you want to look at like uh you know uh

what is this? I mean we were looking at

you know this was just an example. We

were looking at fun this morning. Uh,

and then you you can look at Nphase or

Costco or Axon, Amazon, you know, what

whatever company you want to look at.

But anyway, we did an analysis on

Oracle. I can't remember when we did it.

We did an analysis on Oracle. We're

like, "Oh my gosh, this is like an

insane level of debt." Uh, and you know,

and I think it was after earnings and

people are like, "Oh, should we buy

Oracle?" I'm like, "Hell no, this is

nasty. I can't touch this with a 10-ft

pole with how much debt it has." And you

know since since it blew up on earnings,

it's given all of that back and it's now

lower than where it was. Uh so you know

this is also explained in what you're

seeing in the Blue Owl private credit

disaster. The Blue Owl private credit

disaster where their main stock is down

40%. We also, by the way, looked at

their financials which I thought was

crazy. Like if you go look at their

financials, they make $645 million in

management fees and they pay most of

that out to themselves as compensation.

I'm like, "Holy smokes, dude. These

people are just patting wealth as wealth

managers." And really my concern is what

these people are doing is they are

taking old people's money and they're

throwing it into funds

that people don't actually know what's

inside of these funds. That's why

there's so much fear about like a p

private credit disaster because people

are like, "Oh my gosh, like what's what

are actually inside of these? We don't

know." Oh, but they're triple rated,

sir.

Right. Right. We've never we've never

seen that movie before. So, you know, it

makes people nervous. And so, no wonder

the Blue Owl stock and feeder funds are

starting to tank. Uh, and it's probably

a good thing because the market is

waking up going, "Hey, hey, be careful

over here." Oh, here we go. Oracle

earnings report. What did we say over

here? This was uh I pulled it up.

September 10th. That was my dad's

birthday. I think there was What

happened? Wasn't there a plane crash or

something on September 10th? There was

something bad that happened on September

10th, too. I can't remember what it was.

Oh, no. It was like a tririccolor

collapse or something. Anyway, uh so

they have $19 billion in cash to pay $27

billion in bills. So, they don't even

have the cash to cover their bills right

now. And on top of that, they have $100

billion in long-term debts, not even

including all of the leases. Okay,

that's crazy. Now, I'm I kid you not

that I you could see it. You know, when

I do a PDF document, I put the date that

I look at the document right here,

September 10th. And uh I mean, we

covered this live. You could probably go

back and just look at September 10th

live streams. And what's remarkable is I

was on it on September 10th.

And look at the stock performance.

There's September 10th right here. This

giant green candlestick.

Oh, Charlie Kirk was September 10th. Oh,

I feel bad now. I knew it was something

bad. So, I remember I'm like, man, this

happened on my dad's birthday. Oh,

that's sad. Dang, that's already been 2

months. Two months. He's been dead for 2

months and 8 days.

Man, that's terrible. See, by the way,

that's another example of violence

against free speech, which we already

talked about that enough tonight. But

anyway, uh and then I even complained

about their revenues over here. I said

their net margin is collapsing due to

AI. you know, 240 basis point decline in

margins in in, you know, a

year-over-year quarter. That's bad. So,

but anyway, so it's not a surprise to me

that, you know, now you're getting this

oracle pain, which unfortunately AI is

really what's propping us up. I mean, I

hate to say it, but, you know, you go to

that last ADP report. I've referenced

this many times because I actually

thought this was bullish uh when I first

saw it, but that was just that first

glance. I'm like, "Oh, 42,000, that's

great." But then you go look at the

components of of where it was mostly in

the west. I think it was 37,000 jobs in

the west and mostly big firms. Uh it's

in the details of their press release.

I'm pretty sure they they drop it into

here. Yeah, there it is. Pacific 37,000.

So it's mostly I think big business on

the West Coast that propped that up.

That's not great. Now though, you know,

people are worried about artificial

intelligence as sort of that last leg to

hold everything up. There is uh a lot of

Oh, the Wall Street Journal is now

reporting this. Look at this. Cuz I

actually don't think XAI has money. I

think they're out of money. And I said

that if you are voting in the Tesla

shareholder vote, I would not vote

uh for uh uh the the XAI investment. I

would not vote for that at all. Uh

because I think XAI is just a cash

burning pit and I don't want good money

at Tesla being thrown after bad over

here. So Elon Musk, artificial

intelligence company XAI is in advanced

talks to raise 15 billion in new equity

at a $230 billion valuation. Now it

wouldn't be surprising for Elon Musk to

just go fake news cuz he's done this

before with Reuters reporting on it. But

anyway, this is like

a lot higher than the valuation they

previously had. So, people are still

throwing money at this stuff. Still

throwing money at this stuff. Uh,

somebody's buying it. You know, the

terms of the new fundraising round were

disclosed to investors by Elon Musk's

wealth manager, Jared, on Tuesday night.

Oh, literally tonight. And it already

got leaked out. It couldn't be

determined whether the expected new

valuation shared with investors was pre-

or post money.

CNBC reported earlier that uh on XAI's

plans to fund raise. Oh, CNBC. And then

Elon Musk wrote, "False." Yeah, except

now we're getting new information from

Jared's guy or from Elon's guy, Jared.

Many AI startups, including XAI, are

rapidly burning cash, right? Yeah.

That's what I think is crazy. Like, you

know, I I I don't want to myself like we

we are not going to run a company that

spends more than we make, especially,

you know, in artificial intelligence.

You know, that's that's the plan. So

hopefully we can keep keep on that that

course. But I'm really really excited

about what we're doing with House Hack.

But I I just think this is scary because

it creates so much risk. These people

take on so much debt. X say yeah these

were the pri uh prior fundraisers. Okay.

What are people saying? No comments on

this yet. What? I love reading the

comments on these. Oh well. But anyway,

you know, put all of this together and

this is a very different situation that

when we had at the end of 2022, at the

end of 2022, we were looking at a Nike

swoosh style recovery on the cues. I

mean, you all know the people who were

there, you know, how many times was I

screaming Nike swoosh at the bottom of

the market and throughout all of 2023

and most of 2024. I only started getting

nervous on jobs in late 2024.

And I'm still nervous on jobs. That's

why I'm kind of midpoint on tomorrow.

I'm like, I don't know. Like once those

layoffs tip up, it's gonna be a little

bit of a problem. You saw it. I mean,

you saw the report from that Southern

magazine. You saw what Barkin is telling

you, and you see what's going on in the

stresses of Oracle or Blue Owl. I mean,

Blue Owl is literally selling for a

discount. And not only are they selling

for a discount because of all this

private credit crap, but now they're

going to try to limit the number of

people who can sell uh their their other

fund at net asset value and basically

try to stop the bleeding likely by

screwing more investors. I hate to say

it. I don't know all the details of

this. This is pretty damn complicated

here on the Reuters website. You can go

check it out yourself if you really want

to. You know, here's the article title.

But to me, it looks like a disaster. And

I think more and more of these disasters

are brewing. I just hope we can get

through them. You know, when you have a

really strong economy, things can

default and collapse and then it's fine.

Like, you just you power through it. But

if the economy is weak and then you have

problems, that's when things falter. And

in fairness, I personally am of the

mindset that I want you to be able to

come to this channel and go, you know

what? If Kevin is an uber bull and he's

like, "Bro, we're going to have a Nike

swoosh recovery. We're going all in."

you know, like I want you to hear that.

That's what I was doing in 22 at the end

of 2022. I even started a fund around

the idea. Uh, I'm like, bro, uh, you

know, I mean, I was just looking at

Robin Hood the other day. It was like

the the Nvidia stock I I bought that was

like 1,600% return from 22. And I'm

like, holy crap. You know, that's a lot.

Uh, which is great. I mean, we made

money. Fantastic. I hope you made money,

too. Uh but I I also just want to be

reasonable to say that, you know, we're

we're on a the edge of a cliff and maybe

we can keep climbing like the goat. You

know, maybe we will be the greatest.

What's the isn't there there is a meme

around that? Like I think the meme the

goat on cliff. I think the meme is like

you're just waiting me. You're just

waiting for me to fall, but little do

you know I'm the goat. And then they

show like, you know, a picture of a

goat. I think it's I think it's usually

something like this, right? They show a

picture of a goat on the edge like

you're waiting for me to fall, but

little do you know I'm the goat, the

greatest of all time, you know, like

hopefully I don't want to go into a

recession, you know. So, uh but anyway,

yeah. So, that's my take, you know. I

will uh I will just keep being as

transparent as possible with that. Same

thing with House Act, you know. Uh we

will uh we we are prepared whether

there's recession or not. I even say it

uh I don't know where I say it but

recession or not here we come and uh you

know hey if you want to join the meet

Kevin membership get some more analysis

you pay once you might even be able to

write it off before the end of the year

so if you're looking for a tax write off

consider joining it you get the best

price guaranteed when you join you get

all the courses trade alerts the alpha

reports uh and of course if you're

looking to diversify a little bit from

the crazy markets you could always check

out what you get at reinvest keep in

mind we are paying a 5% coupon uh

through the conversion of the stock uh

if we do convert it would only because

the value of the stock has gone up and

then you get 100% of the upside. Uh my

my hope my dream is to go public between

2028 and 2030. If our AI really takes

off, maybe we can do it earlier. If

there's a big depression, maybe it'll be

later. But you could read more about

that and read the offering circular and

see some of the properties and stuff

over at reinvest.co or houseack.com.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.