SHOCKED What Jerome Powell **JUST** Admitted | Jackson Hole Flip Flop!

wow this was a doish Powell Jerome

Powell literally just flipped in this

video I'm going to give you a bare bull

scale update from Kevin I'm going to

tell you what Jerome Powell said in

reverse order uh and I'm going to give

you my opinion which I haven't heard

anybody else talk about yet which is

either a sign that nobody else is paying

attention to it or it's a sign that your

boy Kevin is just a dumb idiot and it's

just totally wrong in this video I'll

give you everything that's on my mind

and I'll let you make the decision so

let's get started Jackson Hole Drome

Powell starts by saying Kevin's got a

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in honor of Jackson Hole and the prices

go up tonight got any questions email us

at staff meetkevin.com otherwise check

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11:59 p.m. we finally figured out how to

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kevin.com with that said Jerome Bell

truly did say uh the task is not

complete and we do not seek a further

welcoming or a further cooling H in

labor markets so we do not seek or

welcome a further Cooling in labor

markets this is actually really

important this line in my opinion was

critical because on one hand I've been

screaming on the channel That I think

the FED is going too slowly that if they

keep moving this slowly and gradually

and methodically they're going to cause

an unemployment recession and that is

going to be different than the recession

we expected at the beginning of 22 where

at the beginning of 22 we expected a

recession where people would have excess

savings and they'd have their jobs and

it would sort of be like a shallow okay

yeah year-over-year growth is slower and

you'd have a recession really what we

ended up what we would end up getting if

we had a recession now would be a

jobless recession where companies start

laying off more because they're trying

to increase margins capex spending slows

then layoffs occur as hiring stalls then

you get consumer spending slow down and

then the data shows up in unemployment

unfortunately I've been concerned that

if jpow waits for the data to show up in

unemployment it'd be too late and we'd

be KNE deep in a recession so this line

from Jerome Powell that already at this

point we quote do not seek or welcome

further Cooling in labor markets is is

actually good but there's a balance to

this because on one hand I'm like oh I

literally wrote down I I may have even

said it on the video when he said that

I'm like oh that's good this is I think

I just wrote it down this is bullish

jpow is paying attention to the labor

market the way he should this is a good

thing but then I started to thinking to

myself wait a minute how bad is it bro

what do you know that that you're not

saying here now I understand that that

would be very very jaded to assume that

JP's starting to go oh God we've gone

way too far but let's listen to what El

Drome Powell said and see if maybe

there's another clue as to JP saying oh

we've gone too far let's see Drome

Powell tells a story about how he and

other economists and Central bankers and

analysts were on ship transitory and

that it was a very crowded ship and he

basically makes the case that being on

ship transitory was the right move it

just took longer than expected the

journey was longer okay what is he

trying to say with that analogy he

trying to tell you hey look we expected

inflation to come up and come back down

and then once it was gone we're done by

him using this analogy is basically

trying to say we were right it just took

a little longer inflation went up now

it's down we're not worried about

inflation anymore now we got to fix the

labor market we just screwed

up that's my implication from this again

your opinion may be very different and

that's okay that's the beauty about

finances we can have different opinions

so then he says we will do everything we

can to support the labor market the time

has come for policy to adjust and there

is ample room to respond to risks okay

this is really interesting because he's

basically saying inflation's not a

problem anymore we're now serious about

the labor market I actually don't think

the FED is balanced anymore like in the

last fomc meeting the fed's like yeah

we've gone from inflation as a priority

and the labor Market's okay I think

we've actually gone you know in the last

meeting we went to okay they're both

balanced I think now we've gone to Bro

inflation's over which I agree with mind

you I completely agree inflation is over

there's not going to be a second wave

this is my opinion talk about that in

many other videos Supply chains have

expanded so much that it's going to be

very difficult even with stimulative

spending for us to see a second wave of

inflation my opinion again yours could

be very different okay so if inflation

is dead the way JP is saying and now

he's basically more in favor of oh man

we may have gone too far we may start

causing some real damage to the labor

market here and this is why he's coming

across so dovish then we have to ask

ourselves okay so how do we internalize

this does this is this a good thing that

he's being doish yes it is a good thing

because if he came out today and said

we're going to go slow and gradual uh

you know we're not convinced inflation

is dead well then we'll almost certainly

be in a recession so this speech is

definitely more bullish than bearish but

now it kind of like his his the rapidity

rapidness is that a word I don't know

the the rapidness of him going from you

know we're not done yet with inflation

to inflation's transitory and oh my God

we need to save the labor market that

flip makes me go man I mean this is this

is good that now you're paying attention

to the labor market but now you got me a

little concerned as to how concerned you

are about the labor market because I've

already been freaking out about the

labor market and now you're freaking out

and so I'm like are we already in a

recession I'll update the be bull scale

in just a moment but but these are I

don't know the answer here I think

really data will help us obviously you

know we got to be where's the word where

is it it's somewhere over here we got to

be uh data

dependent uh and and we do have data

sets coming out here soon you know we've

uh we've got jolts coming out on 94 job

openings and labor turnover survey the

ADP private unemployment report uh will

come out uh on 95 September 5th uh and

then we'll have non-farm payrolls on

September 6th and my dad's birthday on

September 10th okay so let's keep

listening to what he said so in addition

to this he says we've made a great deal

of conf progress and my confidence on

inflation has grown the upside to

inflation has diminished and the

downside to the risk of employment have

increased so I actually wrote next to

that I'm like how

badly like how badly have the risk to

employment increased anyway so labor

market is unmistakably cooling says

Powell the timing and pace of cuts will

depend on the data uh I wrote this is

surprisingly bullish on the labor market

unlikely the labor market will be a

source of further inflationary pressure

we already knew that he's already told

us for a while that there's no wage

price spiral and we're not really

concerned about wage gains in fact you

know some wage gains are consistent with

falling inflation so that's fine he

referenced 2023 as an example of that in

the second half when inflation was

plummeting and wages were actually

Rising uh then he says sometimes it can

be a good idea to look through inflation

as transitory and so he sort of goes

back into history and says like it's

kind of normal the problem this time was

that Supply chains didn't recover as

fast as we thought they would because of

the co shutdowns he does think we're on

a sustainable path path to 2% and then

he ended the meeting and we're like okay

that was like a 15minute speech or maybe

even slightly less and we're like we

didn't really close the door to 50 basis

points there so what happened is the

market uh has actually started pricing

in a little bit more of a chance of 50

basis points if I look right now when we

started before the meeting we were at

about

1.25 Cuts priced in for September now

we're at

1.32 priced in so the Market's pricing

in a little bit more in terms of rate

Cuts we're pricing in a full five rate

Cuts now for January so he's kind of

actually left the door wide open to 50

here which again is is good in my

opinion this is what he should be doing

but then I also wonder how quickly he

urned makes me just scratch my head and

go it wait is I mean this is what you

should be doing but bro is is this worse

than uh than you're leading out here you

know what's going on back there you know

I feel like I'm getting a report from

the engine room of the Titanic and uh

you know 20 minutes ago it was we're

fine we got it all under control and

then 10 minutes ago it was you know it's

a little worse than we thought but we

got it and then like 2 minutes ago it's

like yeah man we got some problems you

know I don't know man that's that's a

little bit like I'm I'm getting whipsaw

here by the flip-flopping from the FED I

mean again two meetings ago inflation

still not at Target one meeting ago it's

the risks are balanced today it's there

ain't no more inflation risk man the J

Market going to

which I mean we already knew

that oh okay anyway so then he says you

know the direction of travel is clear

meeting ends left the door open to 50

basis points no talk about Peak rates

they're not going to raise rates anymore

no talk about a soft Landing uh there's

no question this is dovish now I'm just

wondering like why is it so dovish Nick

T says the Powell pivot is complete uh

and so where am I on a bare bull scale

um you know I I I'm up a little

but this is uh not much not as much as

you might think I saw some of y'all

guessing you're like oh Kevin's going to

be a seven and a half you know where

bullish Max bullishness with margin is

10 some people like ah no Kevin's going

to be a five or a six I'm going from 29

to 3 three okay so because

a this is what he should be doing this

is good yes Powell yes this is what you

should be doing but the rapidity of flip

here just has me like minimizing my

bullishness

going it is it really that bad

bro so we'll find out as we get more

data I'm just saying I'm just saying I'm

a little freaked out okay so uh I don't

know I don't know I guess the data will

tell I will tell you what I think what I

think will be a winner no matter what

I'm just going to be transparent here

okay what I think will be a winner uh no

matter what uh ooh damn that option I

placed and send a trade alert on let's

freaking go Damn Baby Woo just before I

started doing this video I had an option

trade that I placed and it's making some

dollar hallas right now so hell yeah

let's go uh okay anyway that's up like

50% if you want all those trade alerts

make sure you use that flash sale coupon

code let's

go um but uh n T you know he says the

power pivot is complete uh and uh you

know we've got a lot of people on CNBC

and uh doomberg that are like oh yeah

this is devish this is great a devish

power wow wow wow I'm like y'all Miss

what he actually is imp like did y'all

miss the the big flipflop here I don't

know man y'all freaking me out that's

that's all I got to say that's all I got

to say so anyway thank you so very much

for being here I appreciate and love

yall uh and uh folks um uh holy crap

that option Bas it doubled my option

just doubled holy

sh let's go

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boys uh anyway you want to see those

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kevin.com and we'll see you in the next

one goodbye good luck oh and I think I

forgot to say what this is probably and

very likely no guant is bullish for

yields going down the fact that jpow is

now flipping like this is a sign to me

that yields are going to fall a lot

faster than we expected which is what

I've been talking about for weeks in

fact if you've seen the positioning that

I've been exposing myself to for either

soft Landing or jobless recession uh it

it's been I mean I've got multi I've got

two over seven figure individually

trades going on two big sectors one of

them has a lot to do with rates uh and

uh one of them is also similar ilar to

that but I think does well in even a

jobless recession that sounds crazy but

anyway we've been talking about those

two we've been paying attention I I've

saying I think rates are going to come

down a lot faster than people think and

JW's flipflop here is reiterating

exactly that now the question is just

dang how bad is that for companies that

are expecting growth because if he's

worried about the labor recession growth

companies are going to get whacked so be

careful these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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