The Fed *JUST* FLIPPED AGAIN

Wow first things first with jpow no

papers no iPad this time a teleprompter

to read off his script he's changing

things up a little bit but he's also

changing some things up with his wording

and this is a big deal the first thing

he says he has his eye on 8% mortgage

rates housing was something he really

hit on multiple times here housing

flattened out at the moment now his

quote Mind's Eye goes to the near 8%

mortgage rates and quote we're getting

reports the effects of this High

mortgage rates on housing quote could be

quite significant that is a big warning

flag for the housing market and it's one

that uh my startup which has a fund

raise ending today we are ready to take

advantage of we're kind of excited about

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but learn about that at house.com read

the offering circular the uh fund raise

actually closes tonight at 11:59 p.m. so

learn about that tonight or at house

act.com but anyway talking about jpow he

vacillated a few times by saying

interest rates right now are restrictive

but we're trying to get confident that

we are sufficiently restrictive enough

he suggested once that he was committed

to achieving sufficiently restrictive

rates it was sort of confusing because

he's saying rates are restrictive so are

they sufficiently restrictive I think

he's purposefully trying to be a little

vacillating in in his wording here or

vacillating in his wording because he

doesn't know that's the thing he even

went as far as suggesting the summary of

economic projections we get to the FED

meetings are good for like the day they

write them and then you throw them away

the dot plump basically has been wrong

every single time they've written it

every single projection they've given

has been wrong uh pretty much so who

cares about the projections the point is

what is the snapshot for today the

snapshot for today sounds pretty well

like JP was comfortable keeping rates

here and just watching the progress

we're making on inflation and jobs

continue seeing more of that Supply

chains uh supply chain normalization

lead to disinflation what was really

interesting though was how he redefined

the economy and the next phase so this

is going to take a little bit of

thinking so follow along with this first

of all he said for like over two years

now that the econom is probably going to

have to grow below Trend those have

always been his words he's always been

saying we got to get the economy growing

growing below Trend and everybody's like

all right well the trend is 2% so what

you're saying is the economy needs to go

below Trend well today he actually

totally redefined this and this was like

yet another Drome Powell flip-flop it's

kind of like one day the jolts report

matters and then the jolts report

doesn't matter anymore one day you know

one survey matters and the next it

doesn't matter anymore you know it was

like just a few months ago he's

complaining about the employment cost

index and how we got to see that come

down today he's like ah it's pretty good

we're doing good on the ECI which was

actually surprising because just two

days ago when the ECI report came out

employment cost index the survey was 1%

came in at 1.1 and JP's like H that's

reaffirming the downward Trend we're

doing good here but going back to this

redefin he just came up with today I

feel like sometimes he just pulls this

stuff out of thin air but anyway now

he's saying well we're not actually

saying the economy has to go below 2%

growth what we're saying is we want the

economy to be below its potential growth

oh good lord okay so how do we

understand this well a simple way to

understand it is with numbers let's say

that right now in Q3 the econom is

growing at 4.9% let's say potential

growth for the economy for the next year

is

3% okay trend is 2% potential is 3% he's

saying well we just want the economy to

grow below that potential now which is

actually a doish thing to say and it's

probably why towards the end of this uh

event the NASDAQ started rallying

straight up basically that's probably

why because JP's really relaxing this

idea that oh yeah we've got a lot more

work to do on rate hikes I think we're

done I think by this redefin he's made

it pretty clear we don't need to keep

raising rates he's comfortable if things

continue the way they are inflation's

going to continue trending down it

already is trending down and he's

comfortable that we're on a good Trend

however he also expects it to be lumpy

you know I kind of think about it like

weight loss you know like you go

exercise a bunch and you're like why am

I not losing weight why am I not losing

weight and then all of a sudden it's

like you get on the scale and you're

like whoa all of a sudden I weigh 5 lbs

less you you know how like weird and

lumpy weight loss is you know it's not

like you're losing half a pound a day

and you're seeing that gradual

transition down that's actually what

makes weight loss hard and frustrating

because it's like you work out hard and

it's like it's not changing anyway that

lumpiness I think is what JP's conveying

here that look like we're doing good he

seemed very bullish about that actually

today dare I say doish like look hey

we're doing good man jobs are coming you

know into balance we've got inflation

coming down let's just stay on this

trend in expectations are good oil's not

skyrocketing because of the Middle East

Brent is at 8482 right now you realize

that's like the trend for the year it's

been a little below it's been a little

above but nothing basically no reaction

from Israel in oil prices right now

which that's historically what happens

when Israel has problems in the Middle

East and oil markets don't react too

much but people thought maybe this time

would be different so far it hasn't

proven to be the weird thing though that

he said is he said right now the

disinflation we're seeing is probably

the supply chain portion of the

disinflation he's worried that that

might not get us all the way to 2% that

we're actually going to have to see

labor markets softening to get the extra

like half% or the extra 75 basis points

to break us down to 2% that part I think

is a little bit of a risk but it's not

one I think we can really speculate on

now because it's so long away like let's

get this Supply chains 100% imbalance my

opinion is you probably don't actually

have to break the labor market that

Supply chains and capitalism and the

disinflation of how capitalistic markets

work will drive that disinflation down

to 2% without the need of breaking the

labor market I believe that's true

because of the decade prior to the

pandemic not just the decade prior but

really the past 40 Years of

opportunistic disinflation now J pal

made it clear though that while he

doesn't know that is a con concern of

his and the Committees that they are

going to have to do more in terms of

breaking the labor market to really get

the last bit of inflation down that last

bit of weight loss that last little bit

of starvation that to get to your goal

fortunately that's still a ways out

that's probably something we're going to

be discussing next year around this time

because we're still seeing the effects

of Supply chains in the labor market

coming into a balance where they're

actually leading these price declines or

the rate of increases to decline

remember we've had a lot of inflation

but that's not the concern here the

concern is the stability of prices and

bringing those price hikes back into

level and that's what we're seeing in

earnings calls and Company earnings

reports across Industries with the

exception of ski resorts and Aerospace

where you still have these supply chain

issues now when we look at uh our uh

bingo card this is what I got for Bingo

we talked a little bit about Congress

and a potential debt sealing crisis not

a lot we talked about the Middle East

talked about being open to Future rate

hikes though I don't really think that

is is a big thing uh or a big priority

the FED remember Jerome Powell opened

for the first at least what I think is

in the first time Jerome Powell opened

with we want maximum employment and

stable prices and he reiterated the

maximum employment thing two or three

times but really through some emphasis

on that maximum employment I think

they're really proud right now that they

have maximum employment jome calls it

historically significant that they're

not seeing the labor market roll over

yet and the fact that now if you couple

you know a strong labor market with the

fact that he's saying well we don't have

to be below Trend which is what he said

like 10 dozen times before now he's just

saying we just need to be below

potential that's insane okay that is

such a redefinition it is it's it's a

doish redefinition that's just the way

to look at it so we didn't get bingo at

least the way I saw it we didn't

obviously we get any kind of talk about

fate I put it in the corner because I

didn't think we were going to get that

anyway no Alan greenpan no Paul vulker

no Arthur Burns uh we didn't get the

willingness to cut without employment

going up because there was no talk

really about even talking about cutting

no iPad he was on time the recent

surgeon yields yes does some work for us

the tightening of financial conditions

yes does some work for us we did get

this below Trend growth discussion which

is what we've already discussed brief

mention there of the UAW uh no no real

talk though about that turning into wage

and doesn't really matter cuz we didn't

get Bingo anyway Goods disinflation

continuing we didn't get talk about that

we didn't get talk about housing

disinflation but we got hints that some

that that there was going to be some

pain coming to the housing market again

I think that's going to be a great

opportunity for house hack we're really

discriminatory with our deals right now

picking up on Fear and it's it's a great

opportunity like for example we just got

a house a model almost a model match to

a house that's sold next to a busy road

for

$817,000 we got it for six well 605 and

this is like crazy I mean how much money

is is in that spread uh and that's

insulation in the event Market it's

correct right it's great anyway uh uh

deflation we didn't mention deflation we

didn't mention disinflation Services

disinflation we just didn't have that

discussion today he was asked about a

pause he didn't use the word pause

didn't use the word soft Landing this

was a big deal he said they did not put

recession back in their forecast they

have little forecasts in the background

they didn't talk about recession being

back and that's again why I think you

know if a recession is going below this

zero level right here if that's a

recession and Trend growth is right here

2% and right now the economy is at

4.9% you know and maybe potential is

like 3% he wants us to be around here

which means we're not really knocking on

the door of recession as jpow says in

the short term or in the near term so

they're not seeing a recession and there

was definitely a time last year where

JP's like

yeah we might be going into recession

obviously we touched on banking banking

stability that was pretty basic we think

that fed term uh funding Bank term

funding program will last for a while uh

increase the supply of workers 25 to 54

big increase over here supporting uh

some of the easing in labor no pressure

on jolts having to Come Back in Balance

remember he's kind of flip-flopped on

that which is great we'll take it I love

the redefining of below potential

because it's bull it implies a less

hawkish fed going forward uh we also are

seeing treasury yields fall right now

what we should look at is the uh Fed

rate monitor just to see what the

December forecast is looking like my

guess it's going to go lower from a 25%

chance to lower the 10e is plummeting

right now could be a time for TMF look

at ticker TMF but this is not

personalized Financial advice for you uh

TMF should be doing uh well with an 11

basis point drop in the 10-year the two

years dropping 13 basis points when the

this is actually a ooh wait a second

when the 2year drops more than the 10

year and both are going down this is a

bull steepening yield curves right now

are telling you bullish steepening of

the yield curve you could Google that

one it's and it's it's a little

complicated and annoying and and and how

how it's all calculated and stuff but

once you once you know it it makes sense

but the bottom line of it is that's what

you want a a bull steep in you do not

want a bare steepening a bare steepening

is where you have less inversion but

it's because the 10e skyrocketing that's

what we just went through the last two

months of Hell in the stock market uh so

the bull steepening that's actually good

every meeting is basically going to be

live that's not a surprise uh that

they'll sort of decide meeting by

meeting what does the monitor say right

now the monitor for December uh it just

dropped from 25% chance of a rate hike

to 20% in January AR just dropped from a

32% chance of a rate actually 36% chance

of a rate hike all the way down to about

25

26.7% so you're definitely seeing a

compression there I think this is

extremely clear that the Federal Reserve

is at Peak unless some data comes in

like really crappy November 13th is when

we're going to get our next CPI report

but I really need you to mark your

calendar for this Friday obviously you

know today we have the expiration of the

house hack fund raise uh email us at IR

at house Haack if you have questions

ideally before 5 so we have time to

respond uh but anyway you've got I I'll

be up all night probably just responding

to emails and trying to help as well and

but uh this Friday you need to pay

attention we'll be covering this live

5:30 a.m. nonfarm payrolls okay payrolls

report we're expecting 3% increase in

month-over-month average hourly earnings

up from 0.2 in the last expect the

year-over-year to be 4% and the change

in nonform payrolls to be

180,000

uh again him thinking that uh we we will

need to see some kind of additional

disinflationary work from the jobs

Market is just going to mean higher for

longer unless Supply chains can do all

of the disinflation for us and no

recession back in the forecast the

housing warning was very very clear

today availability of goods and Autos

higher but durable good spending lower

surprise surprise those are like cars

and washing machines or solar panels or

whatever all those obviously just

wrecked right now uh some people say

stay the hell away from all of those

other people say it's a great time to be

buying those uh let's see here uh

looking at the yield curve is confusing

sometimes looking at some of your

commentary here AMD 108 AMD it just

shows you when you have a good earnings

report and then it goes down in after

hours in skyrockets the next day the

stock market is insane that thing's

almost up 10% right now I've got a

position in AMD in Nvidia uh let's see

here uh great thank you so much okay

good yeah hey look thank you so much

everybody for being here this is

fantastic what is this somebody's

talking about house hack raising at a

one to one valuation let's go house

that's true that's almost unheard of in

the Venture Capital space I I can't

think of another company that's ever

done that yeah yep okay good so uh

that's it folks I really appreciate you

being here I love youall look I know

it's shitty times when the stock market

goes down you know I like it Everything

feels like crap uh when your portfolio

is going down it's it's so hard but I I

really I really want you all to think to

yourselves you're going through life

with a shield and you're getting beat up

okay like everything's beating on that

Shield hard you just you got to keep

putting one foot in front of the other

we're going to get through this you're

not going to forget this time of your

life though I promise you this is going

to be a time when you look back you go

damn that really was a hard time it's

supposed to be it's supposed to be and

it's because of the crazy money printing

we had because like we had it's

basically the hangover you know we

partied so damn hard in 2020 and 2021

now we're dealing with like the 2 threee

hangover and hangover sucks man like you

just want to like lie on the floor and

and like go to sleep and and you got a

headache and your tummy hurts it's like

it all sucks but keep going like we're

going to get through it okay I love yall

uh and I wish you all the best now let

me read this

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broker and becoming a stock broker this

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advice tailored to you this video

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information and Market commentary any

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this video is not and shall never be

deemed reasonably sufficient information

for the purpose of evaluating the

security and I personally operate and

actively managed ETF and hold long

positions in various Securities

including those that have been mentioned

in this video potentially uh oh yeah and

I have to say that I have no

relationship to any issuers nor am I

presently acting as a market maker in

any of those publicly traded companies

good Lord thank you so much appreciate

you all we will get through the hangover

I promise we will do it together

everybody will have their own strategy

but we we'll do it together and I ain't

going anywhere I'm not leaving thanks so

much we'll see you soon bye why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take