meh, don’t watch

Hey, so many of you have been asking two

big questions. Kevin, what's your take

on the economy? And what is that giant

green thing in the background of your

videos? Because when you stand in the

middle of it, it makes it look like

you've got devil horns or sit in the

middle of it. Well, I'll answer the

second one first and then we'll talk

about my thoughts on sort of the state

of the economy, especially since we're

at alltime highs.

Warlava of Azenoth. It's a World of

Warcraft thing. I was a TBC Merciless

season 2 gladiator. Uh, basically in

English that means I played way too many

video games in high school and now here

I am. That said, so what do we have for

the economy? Well, economically, we all

know that if we evaluate the economy

based on the stock market, we're at

all-time highs and there's just nothing

bad to say about the economy. The only

thing we can really do is sound like

some loser bear and point to things that

are starting to happen but haven't

happened yet. For example, Mr. Waller,

whom we don't know if we can trust

because he's basically applying for a

job at the Federal Reserve promising to

cut interest rates for Donald Trump,

says that the private labor market is

really slowing down, which it is. We

only generated about 15,000 jobs last

month outside of government and

healthcare. And if we end up too late,

which is sort of a co-f slam on too late

Powell, which is was the coupon code

last week as well, then you end up in a

potential recession that you can't bail

yourself out of with rate cuts. And so

this is why Waller is pitching a rate

cut as soon as June, sorry, as soon as

July. The July 30th meeting is uh well

on July 30th. I'll be covering it. Uh so

then the question becomes will rate cuts

even solve any kind of economic problem

in the event that they even do start

cutting in July? After all, last year

when we cut 50 basis points right before

the election, which we could talk about

the political impact of that uh in a

different video, obviously impact zero,

but motivation debatable.

The jobs market actually did fine. It's

it recovered our unemployment rate went

down. We started seeing growth in jobs

again growth at business optimism growth

in capital expenditures. GDP for Q4

ended really really strong last year. A

lot of people say this was because of

hope that Donald Trump was going to

usher in this new businessfriendly

growth style marketplace which frankly

so far with the exception of that brief

liberation we got that's exactly what's

happened. Now, businesses, if they want

to go buy an H100, can deduct 100% of

it. They want to go buy a little plane,

they can deduct 100% of it for business

purposes. And basically, businesses are

incentivized to spend money on capital

expenses and infrastructure. like

Houseack for example is incentivized to

not only take the existing AI servers we

have for our AI project coming out in Q4

but also buying more because of the

write-ups if we wanted to because you

could fully write them off which is

incredible because usually you'd have to

depreciate them over 5 to seven years.

So a lot of these things say hey the

economy could actually have a whole lot

more gas in it. So really when we look

at the things that are oopsy dupsy the

102 yield curve the uh continuing slow

trend of unemployment claims up the

continuing claims uh the breakdown of

the components of what's actually in the

labor report then yeah we could say all

right at some point we're going to end

up in an environment that is probably

recessionary and then the question is do

you not buy a house do you not buy

stocks because of that risk

What I thought was really interesting

was something that my father-in-law

said. He said, "Look, even if you buy a

house right now and you go into a

recession for 5 years, let's just say,

as long as you go into it planning that

worst case scenario, you have a 5-year

recession to get through, then who

cares?" So, in other words, as long as

you can plan that even if I lose my job,

I'll get another or I have enough in

reserves to make my payments, I'm not

going to be upside down, right? I'm not

trying to show you buying a house right

now. But that doesn't really matter. It

could be stocks, right? Use stocks as

the example. As long as you're willing

to get through sort of a 5year period,

great. Because even though we're at

all-time highs right now, we may not go

into a recession. But if the stuff

you're buying and hodddling, you have

the mindset of, "Hey, I I'll just

hodddle this for 5 years." Then who

really cares? Obviously, if you're on

margin, you have trailing stops

hopefully because you don't want to get

left holding a, you know, the double

bag, you know, your bag and then the bag

you borrowed, which then you have to pay

both back, which sucks. So the reason I

bring that up is because it's an

interesting analogy when you think of uh

investing or or or a thought to make

that hey well can you get through 5

years and this is usually where the

conversation comes up well why do I have

to get through 5 years if they start

cutting rates and this is where I think

people forget what history shows us.

History shows us that the Federal

Reserve does not bail us out of a

recession by cutting rates. In fact the

Federal Reserve historically cuts rates

going into a slowdown which could be a

1995 style soft landing. Knock on wood.

That'd be the best case scenario.

Or you cut rates into a recession allow

2005 2006 or uh you know cutting rates

right into COVID. Although could you

have predicted that? Well, things were

slowing down whatever. Well, just look

at any previous recessionary period and

see the Fed cutting rates into it. Now,

how does the Fed actually usually get us

out? By printing money. Are they going

to print money this time? Yes, they

will. The question is how fast? Because

if we have a recession in say 26 or 7,

we're going to have to we're going to

have a new helm at the Federal Reserve,

so to speak. And the concern that people

have is what if that new helm at the

Federal Reserve is um anti-deficit

expansion like a Kevin Walsh, which

wouldn't be good. Now, what else?

Obviously, you know, you'd prefer like a

Hasset who's just going to bend the knee

and print money. Even if it creates more

deficit, it'll be for the sake of the

economy how they'll sell it. Don't

worry, our deficit just went up by

trillions of dollars, but it's okay

because we're saving, uh, you know,

whatever. So, uh, then we look, okay,

well, is there even a very near-term

catalyst for potential for a

recessionary impetus? The answer there

is absolutely. That is the lagged impact

of tariffs, and it's possible that

following Netflix earnings, where

Netflix did totally fine, beat on all

measures, the stock sold off, maybe

institutions are starting to say, "Hey,

in the near term, we're going to trade

out. We're going to take our profits for

the year and we're going to let the

impact of tariffs run. The impact of

tariffs has really been buttered out

probably to a period of between August

and March because of the slow imple

implementation of the various different

tariffs and the lingering sectoral

tariffs that never come. Uh and then of

course all these threats of retaliation

which ultimately even if we settle at

some kind of agreement with all the

various different trading countries,

especially the big ones, it sounds like

it's they're going to be at least 20%.

uh you know 18 19% unless you're a

surplus country like the UK and you end

up at 10%. You're going to be at 19%

minimum. So now we've like when does the

economy fully price set in? Probably not

until 2026 because you've got all these

delays in getting negotiations done

which remember last time we had trade

negotiations it took 2 years to get

trade negotiations done. Now quick note

many of you have still been emailing us.

Yesterday, I was I was actually blown

away that I had to bother the team so

much to help you with the emails on the

courses on building your wealth at

meetke.com and the membership. So, we

just very briefly extended uh that

coupon code. So, if you still want to

get in, we haven't changed the price. Uh

and you can still get in at last week's

price. However, that will be changing.

Check it out over at mekevin.com. So, uh

yeah. And now I want you to see the

babies. Uh and uh see what else I think

of in the meantime. But I've got to go.

I've got to go fly again. Uh I'll have

to show you. If you follow me on

Instagram, maybe I could show you some

video of me flying with short shorts.

How's that sound? See how much screaming

there's going to be over here.

>> Oh, hello, Jack. Want to say hi?

>> What do we got here? What kind of babies

we got here?

>> All of them.

>> All of them. That's a That's a great

answer. You want to say hi really quick?

>> Summer.

>> Ella, you want to say hi really quick?

>> Hello.

>> Hey, buddy. What we got here?

>> Happiness. Violet

and Mr. Jman. How are you doing?

>> Hi.

>> Oh, you want to say hi?

>> Hi, Claire.

>> Sponsoring this

>> with the Don't Sue Me brochure. Lauren,

you want to say hi? Lauren doesn't want

to say hi.

>> She's standing right next to me. She

doesn't want She's She's ducking. She's

ducking for cover. She's right there.

She's right there. You can see the back

of her head.