Watch BEFORE Friday (Aug 6).

hey everyone kevin here we've gotta have

a discussion about what might happen

tomorrow and what i want you to

watch for when you hear this news

tomorrow whether it's when you wake up

or you're gonna be up with me watching

it because guess what

tomorrow at 5 30 a.m pacific standard

time we get a new

jobs report that's 8 30 a.m eastern time

here's the scoop

this one's gonna be really really

special and i'm gonna tell you why

in june we added 850 000 jobs we beat

estimates we had estimates around

600 to 700 000 and we beat with 850.

great now the estimates folks are all

over the place

we have estimates at 350 000 we have

estimates

coming in at 1.2 million jobs they're

literally all over the place

and here's the thing my belief is that

the market is going to pay specific

attention to this jobs report

because of what the federal reserve told

us this week they said that if we get

two more strong jobs reports

in the 800 to 900 000 jobs range

then we are going to be likely to taper

faster

and sooner than previously expected so

basically the fed right now

is conditioning the bond taper on the

next

two jobs reports the first one of those

two coming tomorrow at 5 30 a.m

okay that's gonna be really important

especially because get this

you know a lot of people don't like

working

when covet is spreading which makes

sense right and we know that delta is

starting to

you know show up a little more and more

and more every day well

this unemployment report from july was

likely conducted or the survey was

likely conducted between the second and

third week of july

delta really became a lot more serious

in the united states

towards the end of july and first week

of august

this means which is now actually this

means uh

this july unemployment report is

unlikely in my opinion

to show a lot of pain in terms of having

a low number

due to delta now jobs could come in low

for some random other reason it's

entirely possible

but if i had to guess between this 350

to 1.2 million estimate range

i think we're probably going to skew to

the higher side because people want to

get jobs they realize unemployment

benefits expire

september 4th which is literally less

than four weeks away at this point

so we've got we've got a lot of things

to consider

because these are all things that could

motivate people to go back to work

economy is reopening we've got

unemployment benefits expiring and hey

we weren't really worried

about covid again with the exception of

now delta within the last two weeks

which came

after that job survey was done so if

anybody's like oh no i don't want to get

a job because i'm worried about delta

and i don't want to get the vaccine or

whatever then

that wouldn't really show up in this

report yet so this report's going to be

a little bit of a lagging tell

but here's the crazy thing that could

happen imagine we get an insanely good

report we get like a million jobs or

whatever report

in the june reading i'm sorry in the

july reading

well then all of a sudden the market

might think oh my gosh

that means we only have one more good

report to go

and the taper happens the market can get

heart palpitations about that

you can see tech go down higher

valuation stocks go down you could see a

resurgence and maybe some

more sort of low pe stocks or flight

to safety kinds of stocks whether that's

utilities uh

you know banks maybe we'll see we'll see

you know banks like it when rates go up

they usually move up when rates go up

so that could be where you get a little

bit of a flight to safety where the

market all of a sudden panics a little

bit

could be a bad day for tech be

interesting be something to watch for

it might be a good day for crypto

because if we see the economies

potentially feeling like it's

overheating

well then we get fears of maybe

hyperinflation or a hyperactive economy

and that tends to move traders into

crypto because they see that as a hedge

against well fiat hyperinflating away

so now if if it misses then it

then my head is going to spin because

why would miss substantially like come

in low

like 350 like the adp numbers which was

a big miss

if it comes in really low like that like

300 to 500 000

i'm just gonna be like dude how did we

have that few jobs

two months before the expiration of the

unemployment boost

as people are getting ready to go back

to school and we don't even have the

delta fears yet

like i understand schools and delta

might maybe offset each other like maybe

more people can go to work when the

unemployment boost wears off

and people can go to school but then

less people might want to work because

of delta who don't want to get the

vaccines right

i understand that but it would be really

weird to see a big

miss in july now that could be good

though

for some of the higher value stocks

right that could be a good sign that hey

the economy needs a little more

breathing room

maybe it's not we're not quite ready to

taper yet maybe we need to see what

happens with

supply chain shortages what happens with

inflation and some of these other

aspects so

tomorrow's going to be really telling

and it'll also be very interesting to

see how the market responds

is the market going to see or i mean

we're going to be pulling up the 10-year

treasury yield we know that already if

the 10-year treasury yield no matter

what happens

if the 10-year treasury yield plummets

then it's a sign that

essentially the market is likely

thinking uh it doesn't look like rates

are going up anytime soon you know that

would probably be more likely on a miss

right

but if the 10-year treasury skyrockets

because we get this massively strong

employment report then then that could

be that exact sign of

oh not so good for tech not so good for

hire multiple companies and uh

and maybe signs of of uh yeah maybe the

fed needs to adjust a little quicker i

mean we just had joe manchin

bagging on the fed saying they need to

taper faster now that could be politics

generally congressmen and women are

supposed to stay out of federal reserve

business

but donald trump kind of blurred the

lines with that right remember when he

was beating up on fed jay pal

demanding that he lower rates back when

he was actually raising rates in 2018

anyway so these are really important

things to consider

tomorrow i will be live streaming this

at 5 30 a.m remember use the 40 off

coupon code link down below and get your

free stock with public linked down below

now

i want to just recap that very very

quickly in case in case you have

any confusion about this okay nobody

knows where these numbers are going to

come in tomorrow

if they come in with like a 700 or 800

or 900 000 in the front

we're probably gonna be tapering sooner

unless delta

ruins it so we'll see okay but those are

the expectations to have

uh strong is going to be more taper

unless delta ruins it so you got to pay

attention to this jobs report and delta

delta

delta tomorrow morning we'll also take a

peek at the case counts again we did

have a drop in case counts today which

is one of the reasons we started seeing

recovery stocks actually move up nicely

three to five percent today

so you can see the market is really

sensitive to what's going on here we'll

see

all right folks thanks for watching this

one we'll see you next one