The WORST Delinquencies in 30 Years | Great Reset WARNING.

you won't believe how easy it is to be

manipulated on the internet I'm going to

show you this in detail to explain why

you're being manipulated and why it's

actually important for you this is the

kind of perspective that I always want

to bring to you like whether you buy my

courses or you just watch the videos or

whatever I want to be here for the rest

of my life just to be able to add a

different set of perspective for you

that's my goal that's my dream it brings

me happiness and joy because somebody

sent this to me the other day I was on a

plane

and I got this I go hm somebody said

Kevin is this truly worse than the 2008

financial crisis I'm like oh here we go

again always the comparisons to 2008 and

that's fine we can compare to other

recessions because that's what's

familiar a lot of us went through 2008

it was absolute hell we don't want to go

through that hell again some of us

didn't go through 2008 don't think it'll

be that bad for themselves yet we think

there'll be an opportunity to go

shopping for things during that time

because things will be on sale so some

of us are on the side it's kind of like

cheering for that of course that does

mean a lot of joblessness sadness and

pain recessions are hard and so

naturally I looked at this and I'm like

credit card defaults are rising at a

level never seen in three decades so the

first thing I thought was hm where's the

data from this is the first thing you

should always think of is where's this

data from so okay they're suggesting the

sources the Federal Reserve board the

National Bureau of economic research and

themselves so the usual trust me bro but

that's okay so what are they actually

citing in this well what they're saying

is credit card delinquencies are rising

fast hm that's interesting so first of

all on a daily basis we study earnings

we study company earnings earnings calls

and we try to understand the

fundamentals of what what are happening

that doesn't necessarily align with what

actually happens in the stock market

it's just fundamentally what are CEOs

and Executives saying when you listen to

the earnings calls of American Express

Visa Chase Bank of America from earlier

in the earning season I actually didn't

hear that so an antenna went up and I

thought to myself wait a minute credit

card delinquencies are at the highest

rising at the highest level in 30 years

what I something didn't align because

that's not what the executives are

saying they're saying that credit card

delinquencies are normalizing and I'm

like is somebody lying okay well this is

where we get to the perspective because

imagine this both could be true and this

is where it's like oh Kevin come on but

I want you to know about this because I

think the people who watch this channel

come for perspective where they're like

I never thought about it that way so

where's the LIE get to the bottom line

Kevin it's right here year-over-year

change in credit card delinquency rate

as reported by all commercial Banks did

you hear that this is a percentage

change comparison well what do we know

folks think about this okay if you have

let's say $100 in debt and you're

delinquent on that debt and then all of

a sudden you go into Co you're not

delinquent anymore because everybody is

forgiven you can't be delinquent so you

literally go from being a $100

delinquent or let's say 100 people are

delinquent okay we'll go with 100 people

are delinquent 100 people are delinquent

and then you go to zero okay so you just

had negative 100% delinquencies now all

of a sudden delinquencies went up to you

know 20 and then they went to 40 and

then they went to 80 oh my God they're

doubling they're doubling they're

doubling of course the rate of change is

going to be insane coming up from zero

duh when in the last 30 years have we

literally said don't worry we'll pay for

your bills if you're late or don't pay

your bills they won't affect your credit

that hasn't happened I think in the

history of America frankly what happened

in Co was so unique and it created these

weird distortions so I thought okay well

in order to fact check my impression

which is that something's wrong about

this chart okay in order to fact check

that I need more data so what do I do

well I look up the delinquency rate on

credit cards from the Federal Reserve

board okay so we go to St Louis Fred and

what do we have delinquency rate on

credit cards this is the actual

delinquency rate not the year over-year

change so what do we have when we scroll

down ah how interesting the actual

delinquency rate is a fraction above

we're talking about like this point

right here is 2.66% delinquency

and this is 2.72 don't get me wrong it's

trending up and it's going to be worse

than what we had preo I do believe that

it's going to go up it could go to 3%

delinquency heck it could go to 4%

delinquency but even 4% delinquency

would be similar to the low of what we

had in 2004 5 and 6 and then you think

oh well that you know that doesn't sound

great but look at the time even in the

'90s before the dotc bubble where

sitting around 4 and a half to 5% so

this right here is actually consistent

with a

normalization just like the CEOs are

saying now it could worsen that is

something to pay attention to but what I

want you to think is wait a minute is

that actually

worse than what we've had in the last

three decades can both of these things

be true and is there something else we

need to talk about in this video yes and

yes so both of these charts are accurate

the problem is the game of Trades one is

misleading and it's purposefully

misleading because it's the stuff that

gets views this is the stuff and there's

something else that's very important

that I want to talk about it has to do

with earnings and like Tesla and Nas and

all this other kind of stuff so we got

to talk about that as well but I I just

want to finish on the uh the argument

here of when we read this stuff we know

it gets a lot of views and people are

purposefully spending their days trying

to make charts that are going to get

likes on Twitter this say 3.2 th000

likes that's about the same as me saying

yay I'm a twin dad now like this is big

news right but the problem with it is it

turns into what we call bare porn and

I'm just now going to the comments

people saying like oh but you know the

FED says GDP is 5% clown clown clown and

it's implying oh no everybody's lying to

us all the data is rigged well the

reality is this is a factor of

perspective

perspective matters now let's jump into

some of the factors we're going to take

some of this perspective we just learned

we're going to talk about company

earnings specifically Amazon Google Nas

let's touch on that quickly though I got

to remind you November 1st it's around

the corner okay it is October 29th that

means we have like 2 and a half days

left to invest in house Haack if you

want to get into my real estate company

the fund raise closes the 2023 fundraise

closes November 1st you want to be a

founding investor you're getting one

toone valuation you're a founding

investor learn all about it at house.com

read the circular there's no dilution

this is fantastic it's not to say there

can't be other raises or might be other

raises in the future but obviously

hopefully we hope those will be at

higher valuation uh but this is this is

very rare for a company to offer

founding shares and I'm really really

enthused by house act obviously it's my

company like any founder is going to say

that but I don't think there's ever been

a Founder that's selling founder shares

on social media before and so we're

trying to break Norms trying to do the

best we can for the community so learn

more at house hack.com the minimum to

invest is 5,000 bucks you invest with

credit card debit card a wire whatever

is easier for you and if you're

International you can invest as well and

if you want more of my perspectives you

can go to meetkevin.com to check out my

noobvspro crash courses the prices will

be double within about the next 30 days

so buckle up for those and we'll start

having the content actually come out

since that's on pre-sale now let's talk

earnings now I find this interesting as

well I actually am a big admirer of

papers because you're not getting this

constant a new headline of streaming

news and it's annoying even though

that's literally what I have right there

but anyway but that gives me alerts when

there's breaking news so uh Tech

earnings were strong why investors still

hated them uh so I'm going to give you

uh their version and then I'm going to

give you my version okay my version's a

little different but they relate so and

I think both of these are very useful so

uh it has to do with expectations

they're essentially talking about look

the Google and Amazon earnings they were

good but people really expected or came

to believe that AI was going to be some

miracle for these companies way sooner

like for cloud way sooner than is

probably a reality I agree that this is

not a reality yet the cloud AI boom I do

think the AI investment into chips is

where it's at I'm a big investor in

Intel Nvidia and to some degree uh AMD

asml TSM they've had volatility duh

that's what happens with any kind of

growth or or uh you know new sector but

uh I'm a big believer in those and uh

not so much in the software space

although I will say Microsoft and Amazon

great job Facebook and Google a risk

factor at least as Barons is pointing

out advertising the advertising slowdown

hit largest according to Barons at the

beginning of the invasion in Israel

that's a risk factor because it could

mean businesses are starting to adjust

just to think oh maybe a recession will

come now because of the Israel war like

we could deal with you know Ukraine and

Russia but now that we have Israel Hamas

Iran on top of this this could hurt

advertising and it's probably going to

most hurt advertising in Q4 which is

wild because this is when the biggest ad

dollars should be spent yikes now what's

my perspective on this well my

perspective is is that remember when we

come out of a disaster where like things

essentially go to zero as we learned in

the first part of this video the next

year-over-year changes are very very

high right but then you're comparing to

that very very high threshold for growth

and then when you normalize or Worse

potentially go like even lower like

negative in terms of growth right you go

from like negative 50% growth to

positive 50% growth and then you're

going like neg 5% growth going that neg5

is like really really painful for some

reason even though the earnings are so

much higher than what they used to be

I'll give you an example of this and

forecast as well so if I look at a

company like and phase and I go back at

quarter over quarter growth okay I go

all the way back to uh 20 18 let's say

in 2018 let me read you the

month-over-month percentages for growth

that this company had uh and when I say

sorry I should say year-over-year

percentage growth but on a quarterly

basis so we clear that up every quarter

what was the growth like looking back to

the last year in

2018 q1 27% Q2 1.6% Q3 1.3% Q4 15% q1

2019 43% okay so you have like those

lower percentages of growth right okay

makes sense then what happens well then

postco happens what kind of growth do we

get in 2021 46% 151% 96 % 55% going into

2022 still 46% 67% 80% 75% as you can

see very high year-over-year comparisons

right where are we right now with this

dog stock well H Q3 year-over-year

13.2% this is not good Q4 negative

50% next quarter well the quarter

thereafter

q124 -41% % Q2

-28% big adjustment now when we look at

that nominally this quarter of 351

million expected we have not seen 351

million since Q3 of 21 so we're

basically 2 years back so we had like a

big surge kind of went back two years in

terms of the actual earnings

and the trajectory though because those

numbers are all way higher than 2018

2019 just for Giggles like if you go

remember 351 is like going back 2 years

right but you go back to like the

beginning of coid you were and and right

before coid 2019 you were at 92 mil 100

Mil 134 mil so you're like still 3x

those numbers but again that percent

change stuff gets people so riled up and

nervous about growth in the future and

expectations it's all part of the postco

process and it's hard because you see

the pain in markets but look at the

growth going forward for end phase at

least expectations which obviously could

change but hopes are based on CEO

commentary and analyst projections you

get back to Positive Growth

q324 yikes that hopefully is right when

rates get cut too so maybe that's why

you're seeing that 79% growth Q4

24 51% growth sorry 52% growth q125 q225

35% 25 % thereafter and it just sort of

that's actually when the estimates stop

is it yeah that's when the estimates

stop so it just gives you an example the

same is true at alphabet alphabet right

now Q4 -

7.2% followed by expectations of

negative 1% -2% uh you go to Amazon

you're looking at uh just slower numbers

postco but not negative 11% 11% 11% 11%

11% but pretty consistent there quarter

year-over year numbers 11% but the point

is everything's getting used to that

sort of that

oh my God yay oh and then the

normalization so that normalization

doesn't necessarily mean recession but

don't get me wrong a recession could

definitely happen and that's a fear

because remember what a recession is

it's just two quarters in a row of

negative GDP we already had that bro

beginning of 2022 but it could happen

again because you get the sort of

volatile recovery and that's what you're

doing is down

up oh but it's not fun when it's the

negative part

hopefully this perspective helps though

I think it's very useful to understand

this stuff check out house just go to

meetkevin.com at the top there's a

banner has everything house hack

Financial advice with Kevin the courses

everything you want so with that said I

got to read this disclaimer for you even

though I'm a licensed financial adviser

licensed real estate broker and becoming

a stock broker I already passed my test

we still got to get through all that the

other there's more testing to be done

and such we got to bring the Twins home

that's in progress stay tuned for

updates on the twins and video of the

twins super cute anyway this video is

neither personalized nor real estate

advice for you we didn't even talk about

real estate it's not tax legal or

otherwise personal advice personalized

advice tailor to you remember that like

I could say hey I think it's a good

financial decision for some people to

buy bonds right now because you know you

might be close-ish to bottom on bonds

and have yields you know to lock in but

doesn't mean it's right for everybody's

situation so that why that Reas that's

why that phrase exists personalized

Financial advice that's why we say this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary we didn't

provide any thirdparty content which uh

you know well I guess we did like this

game of trade stuff you know obviously

we criticize some of it but I can't fact

check everything inside their chart like

how am I supposed to fact check their

trust me bro that's why we like to say

this cont any kind of content we show is

not endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purpose

of evaluating the security and any

promoted products like streamyard I

always mention metkevin.com streamyard

is a paid affiliate just like others

thanks so much for watching we'll see

you in the next one good luck and

goodbye why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P financial anist and YouTuber

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