The Start of the Massive Market Correction

hey everyone me kevin here oh my

goodness the s p 500

appears to be pricing in a correction

and i want to show you exactly what i'm

seeing if this is just one part

but i want to break this to you right

away we talked about this this morning

in the private course member live stream

this is the stuff that we often talk

about

little things i'm seeing in the market

but this is just one that's a little bit

larger that i really just want to put

out there

we did also talk about a really special

tax strategy totally legal tax strategy

that i'm thinking about using to take

advantage of playing this particular

market

and if we get a special crash what

special things i might be able to do

stay tuned maybe i'll make a video on

that maybe not but either way it was in

this morning's live stream

uh it's great but anyway uh use that

coupon code down below but folks

let's jump into what the heck is going

on here because take a look at this

folks okay

so the s p 500 is down 1.75

last week and over the last two weeks

i've been talking about

how i think there could be a large

correction coming in the s p 500

i talked about it yesterday i talked

about it last week i talked about two

weeks ago there's no secret here

the s p 500 was hitting all-time highs

over and over and over again while at

the same time tech was dropping dropping

dropping

tech cannot drop so far without at some

point

pulling the s p 500 down like a rubber

band it pulls it down

it constrains the macy's and the

nordstrom tech and consumer

discretionary

pull these guys down and what happens

when they all get pulled down including

potentially even crypto which might

explain why we're seeing crypto sell

down today

in my opinion you get to a potential new

low in the market so let's say that new

low is i don't know s p

3200 instead of 4200 all-time high we go

down you know 20ish percent whatever a

thousand points

25 whatever we go down to s p

3200 and uh somewhere around there we

get this new low level

and then we start looking at okay what

are the deals now

is it tech is it recovery do we still

believe

that recovery that might be high in debt

is going to recover

as well as tech is going to zoom out of

this when that recovery starts we're

expecting to see inflation data not do

vertical increases but instead to start

doing

flattenings and rotation towards the

downside of inflation i know that sounds

crazy to think about right now because

everything's going vertical with

inflation

and inflation expectations but inflation

expectations change

at the drop of a hat all you need are a

few reports in a row

of oh inflation is slowing it's slowing

oh supply chain shortages are changing

that the inflation expectations flip

flop and it's possible that we could

correct down to the downside

substantially especially with all the

shorting going on the shorts are

printing money right now

and we hit a bottom and we start seeing

the sectors come up the way they may now

how they will come up i don't know i'm

hoping it's teching consumer

discretionaries because that's what i'm

heavy on

the etsy's the end phase the palantirs

the tesla let's go

right uh these are the ones i'm heavy on

is what it is i have to suffer through

the red

i don't like shorting because i take all

the money i would spend on shorting and

just throw it in the market

it's my style it's just my strategy it's

just the way i work i don't try to time

my exits

uh with shorts uh and uh i i like doing

what i'm good at and in my opinion this

is what i'm good at

is is buy the dip buy the dip buy the

dip i get made fun of like crazy on the

way down

and then when it goes zooming

everybody's like yeah they could just go

lucky what freaking ever

but here's what i'm seeing in the s p

500 okay you ready for this

take a look at this usually when the s p

500 goes down a couple percent

you see put options especially long

dated put options

uh move maybe two to three x so maybe

you'd see put pricing go up

four percent six percent right let's go

to the short ones let's go to like the

summer okay let's go to july

look at the put pricing oh my gosh it's

gotten worse since this morning

uh look at the put pricing under some of

the uh the higher interest uh

higher open interest options here oh my

gosh

we were just looking at these an hour

and a half ago

and the put pricing was up 40 percent on

the s p

it's up 60 percent now puts are pricing

in a fat freaking correction right now

folks

uh fat correction is getting priced in

but it's not just those folks take a

look at this

go out to like january of 2022

look at the put pricing let's try to

find one that has a higher open interest

uh here's a put at uh uh 115 for the spy

uh this is up 35 you've got let's go to

like i don't know if spy 300 you're up

20

spy 305 uh with uh with 10

000 open interest you have 48 here's one

that's up 20

28 you're seeing massive massive

increases in put

pricing certainly the shorter you go i

mean if you went to like i don't know

the end of may or something like that

some of these puts are up a hundred

percent the pricing has

doubled on these the market is all of a

sudden pricing in some

massive fear and massive potential for a

correction

and so literally what you're seeing this

morning is people freaking out fleeing

essentially to the exits

going we gotta have edge we got a hedge

we got a hedge we got a hedge

problem with hedging too much is you

don't end up buying the dip

the theory is okay this isn't the

perfect world scenario perfect world

like fairy tale you're the best timer of

the world

fairy tale is you buy puts

you wait for the bottom when you're

confident you're at the bottom and you

don't think we're in a bull trap and

things are going back up and you don't

miss the bottom

you rotate from the puts to buying at

the bottom

if you can pull that off do it i think

that's great the alerts that i'm gonna

be sending out

are gonna be my big buys as we get

closer

to where i think i'm gonna go back in on

margin and go heavier maybe use this tax

strategy i've been talking about with my

course members which

tax strategy by the way totally legal uh

i talked about it this morning in the

private livestream

i'm really tempted to do something big

here and and go

big time shopping when uh when when we

hit a bottom within potentially i think

i still think probably the next two

months is is when sometime between now

and the next two months

that's when we hit some kind of bottom

and as long as that inflation data

starts inflecting back down

which i think is 70 to 80 likely boom

that's when we actually start seeing the

roaring 20s again

but otherwise we got this fear of

hyperinflation over

inflating lots of fears in the

marketplace right now and

you see it in the puts folks i talked

about this 10 days ago

i talked about this a week ago i talked

about this yesterday

i see an s p 500 correction coming folks

the indices are now starting to correct

i hope it doesn't last

i hope it goes away i want people to

make money going on the upside

i don't know when it's going to rotate

but it wouldn't surprise me to see this

continued trend down

for the next two months maybe even a

little bit longer

but like i always say i think we're

stuck in this through at least september

and october

i do think we'll start getting lots of

u-turns in september and october

and then longer tail inflation risks and

expectations will still take

probably through december and maybe even

the beginning of next year to actually

really

uh flatten out again we'll see we'll see

inflation right now

through the freaking roof and there's no

questioning that but i have to say it's

also odd

to see inflation expectations go through

the roof and to see bitcoin

and crypto sell off it's odd bitcoin's

at 55 000.

it's bouncing around the bottom right

now of about

six 54 uh for the day and uh fifty five

thousand ethereum's down from forty

three hundred to forty one fifty four

and you've got dogecoin sitting around

46 cents

things to pay attention to but right now

the kryptos a lot of these at least the

big ones here

they're moving along with the s p 500 so

be careful stay safe out there

if you can pull off the timing and you

can short just realize

even though that might seem like a

perfect idea right now you're already

paying a

fat premium if you want to pull off

those kind of shorts you're probably

better off hoping that tomorrow's a

green day

and and that people's fears chillax a

little bit and and then maybe you buy

some puts

anyway thank you so very much for

watching check out the briefly extended

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well that i talked about this morning

and folks

we'll see in the next video