Forget Recession | The COMING Great DEPRESSION - The Alarm Bells.

holy smokes it's Black Friday and yeah

this is the biggest sale I've ever done

on the courses linked down below and in

this you're about to see why let's get

into it okay you don't want to know what

Society General is warning of here but

I'm going to tell you anyway it's not

good so think back for a moment to the

Great Depression you might not remember

it it it was like 90 years

ago unemployment Rose to

24.9% during the Great Depression it

didn't go to

24.9% because of inflation it went to

24.9% because of deflation yes deflation

led to nearly a quarter of the active

Workforce wanting a job not being able

to find a job deflation is really bad

there's a reason why Milton Friedman

tells us that inflation is an entirely

monetary instrument it's because when

the Federal Reserve does not turn the

money printer on to prevent

deflation capitalism drives deflation

everybody wants to offer lower prices so

that they can get sales

before a depression of course that's

when the Federal Reserve usually takes

out the money printer says nope we're

not going to let that happen but what

happens when they don't well what

happens when they don't is what happened

during the Great Depression 3 years in a

row of prices falling

7% per year actually it was about four

years in a row 1930 1931 1932 1933 that

unpaper looks like three years but it's

actually four years four years in a row

of deflation and the FED not responding

what did that lead to 25% wow

24.9% unemployment a ridiculously high

number and it was as a result of our

money supply turning negative which

that's already what we're seeing happen

in America today year-over-year the

change in the money supply Contracting

at the greatest Pace we've seen well

frankly since the Great Depression now

this is of course a year-over-year

change number the money supply exploded

last year so when you normalize this

figure and just look at it from a

billions of dollar point of view our

money supply is obviously substantially

higher than where it was at 15.4

trillion dollar during the P or leading

into the pandemic now we're sitting at

20.7% but the question is how like are

we basically mad to be talking about a

deflationary

depression now well let's just see what

companies are saying about it so here's

Walmart okay uh Walmart says well

Michael it's good to speak with you one

of the things we're going to look

closely at in our business uh or is is

units like how many units are we selling

volumes of numbers right and we've seen

good growth in units so we're you know

we're not just entirely driving our

revenues by higher prices things are

still good right now we're still coming

out of an inflationary cycle right we

think we're positioned well we go into

the end of this year and into 2024 to

answer your question though about

pricing it depends on what's driving the

2% comp okay so what's driving the 2%

growth that Walmart sees going forward

well here you go listen to this so if

it's hard to extrapolate Trends from

this year into that the team here is

being very focused on what could happen

quote in a more

deflationary environment and making sure

we have a cost structure that supports

Revenue in whatever environment we're

operating in this folks is the earnings

call that was published on November

16th from Walmart and what they're doing

and I wrote it here because we covered

this in our course member live stream is

Holy Smokes this is the Fed getting

ready for deflation that's what I wrote

right here cost cutting can lead to

unemployment as you cut costs and prices

come down you try to be more efficient

with the employees you have this is what

we saw during depression this is when

the FED needs to print print print it's

when they refuse to that you end up in a

depression we're really pleased that our

us businesses are seeing roll back

counts up significantly that this

Thanksgiving will be one in which

Walmart will have lower prices than a

year ago okay okay okay it's Walmart

okay maybe Walmart's trash okay okay

okay what about Levis this is Levis chip

ber we're very disciplined in trying to

really understand uh what were the most

price sensitive items and adjusting the

price in those items and those items

only except not up down Levi is talking

about prices going down Vans the shoe

company talking about prices going down

what about Costco oh um oh dear oh oh

dear the vice president and CFO of

Costco well answering a question here

about 1 to 2% uh you know of of

potential price growth uh being

responded to like this well first of all

your comment that was on the 1 to 2% uh

you know we're talking about the 17

weeks or about four months roughly and

uh we're looking at these four months

and uh you know basically um what we're

noticing is a downward Trend if you will

a little and when I talk to merchants on

the Fresh side the food side it's flat

to down a little bit right now on the

food side in other words with the

exception of sundried things like

raisins okay very Niche things but

basically things are trending to 1 to 2%

if anything they're trending to negative

okay and then we see the consumer

packaged Goods side and non food being

down year-over-year in a nice way as

freight costs her down after Freight

went through a recession basically and

in some cases now commodity costs are

just straight negative so that being

said we're not seeing a big change but

at least we're trending that way who

knows what tomorrow brings and it is

related to you know multiple things I

would say but it relates to pushing

prices as fast as we can we want to be

the first to lower them when those

things happen and drive sales

holy

smokes wait a minute Costco saying we

want to be the first to cut prices

Walmart saying we're cutting prices

Levi's Vans cutting prices to be lower

than what we're seeing last

year not only that but now we literally

and I want to show you what Society

General is saying because I think it's a

very big deal but not only that

this guy meet Kevin is saying welcome to

Black Friday he's talking about

deflation in his Black Friday sale 77%

off the bundles the lowest prices for

the next year guaranteed 75% off any of

the programs and the release of all the

noob verse Pro courses coming this

Monday which if you check out on any of

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brand new 2023 content

this is deflation in Earth okay yeah

yeah I did just sneak into uh i' snuck

in a Black Friday sale into the

deflation talk but that's what's

happening let's just be real you have to

be competitive in this environment

prices are going down prices are going

to continue to go down over the next

year now that doesn't mean we're back to

levels that we saw in 2019 but companies

are starting to cut prices a lot of

companies are starting to quite frankly

panic I think Costco which makes like

50% of their net income from guess what

memberships okay they just want you to

be a member so they want to come across

as having the best prices and if they

don't have the best prices then what

happens you end up with a deflationary

bust so yes in talking about a

deflationary bust I I did just build in

a Black Friday coupon so go to meet

kevin.com to see the lowest prices we

are not only reducing prices via

inflation but we are also offering a

price guarantee that Black Friday today

will be a

low so we're trying to shoot in such a

way that we're shooting it straight with

you other companies are lowering prices

we are going to make sure we have the

best prices for Black Friday now for the

next year so if you want to check out

the courses and get lifetime access to

the courses the course member live

streams you want to be part of the brand

new 2023 lectures that are coming out on

Monday they're all dropping on Monday

those are in the new verse Pro courses

you want to be a part of these or you're

an existing member go to me kevin.com

check it out email us at staff at

meetkevin.com if you're not already a

member so what do you have here Society

General tells us the following the

Federal Reserve in the 1930s made a

massive mistake it allowed the money

supply to contract without printing

money we already see that the money

supply is negative now the Federal

Reserve needs to strike a very very

delicate balance that we don't end up

leading to another deflationary bust due

to Federal Reserve overtightening and

folks that's exactly what we could end

up facing now the Federal Reserve is

going to keep a very tough face up of oh

yeah we're not going to cut until

deflation or uh inflation drops back to

2% fear not but what about when that

housing inflation that we've just

started seeing roll over comes at the

same time as a rollover in goods and

potentially we start seeing that

unemployment level start slowly slowly

slowly tick up the Federal Reserve

really has no choice but to cut the

question then is how much does the

Federal Reserve cut if we look at the

world interest rate probability what do

we end up getting we end up getting cuts

of between now and January 2025 of only

about 1% that would be roughly four rate

cuts of 25% or 25 basis Points each now

this number is heavily debated a lot of

folks say no we're not going to see four

interest rate Cuts uh the Federal

Reserve is not going to be that

aggressive they're going to stay higher

for longer and that frankly is what the

bond market is pricing in although the

5-year Break Even level is finally

starting to fall we're seeing 5-year

Break Even level come down uh we're

sitting at about 2.23 on the 5-year

break even right now and when we jump

into the 10-year treasury we find the

treasury yields are actually up at the

time of this recording

4486 per up seven basis points today the

nasdaq's negative in pre-market down and

S&P slightly positive I'll hide myself

from this for a moment but the big

warning that Society generally gives us

is that and it's not General a I know

that's like the American way to say it

it's the general that's if you want to

say it all French but anyway it's so

important to consider the 1930s Great

Depression that price cutting leads to

job cuts and once that cycle starts the

deflationary bust starts it could be

very difficult for the Federal Reserve

to stop it so maybe we should be more

concerned about paying attention to

deflation and prices falling then we

should be concerned about prices

rising that's my take let me know what

you think in the comments down below it

might seem crazy to worry about

deflation at a time where prices are

still up from before covid and you know

what it might be a welcomed relief to

see prices fall as I said today's Black

Friday you get the best price as

possible we're super excited to lower

the prices and bring you more value at

the same time if you're existing member

and have questions email us at staff

meetkevin.com to make sure you could get

the best access to the lectures that are

dropping on Monday in the new vers Pro

courses or the other lectures that are

dropping in the other courses totally

for free for existing members my goal is

always to bring more value so send us an

email staff atme kevin.com if you're a

new why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising in seeo

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P Financial list and YouTuber

meet Kevin always great to get your

take member considering becoming a

course member email us at staff

meetkevin.com as well thank you bye