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More Disaster | Reverse Repo Limit JUST Doubled - Explained.

8m 52s1,632 words270 segmentsEnglish

FULL TRANSCRIPT

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hey everyone me kevin here the federal

0:01

reserve just doubled its capacity for

0:03

accepting reverse repo operations from

0:06

individual counterparties in case you

0:08

have no idea what the heck i just said

0:11

in this last sentence this video is for

0:13

you so i can explain to you why the dead

0:16

cat bounce we were expecting to be a

0:18

reality on tuesday turned into a dead

0:21

zombie that basically got up got on a

0:23

rocket ship and the market just kept

0:25

chugging along because apparently we

0:26

cannot dip the s p 500 more than three

0:29

percent without people buying the crap

0:31

out of it and buying the dip like crazy

0:34

to the point where the market just does

0:36

not want to fall

0:37

so

0:38

let's explain this

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doubling

0:41

of the acceptance of reverse repos at

0:43

the federal reserve's overnight

0:45

operations

0:46

and then maybe we can understand why the

0:49

market refuses to dip or even crash

0:52

all right folks

0:53

we've seen this line before

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see the blue line it goes up it means

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banks and money market funds and

0:59

businesses have more cash than ever

1:01

before i'm giving you a big bottom line

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i'm skipping the bs okay in fact take a

1:07

look at this

1:08

see right here march 31st kind of uh

1:10

during the coveted recession here right

1:12

march 31st of 2020 why'd the line go up

1:15

then

1:16

well because businesses panicked they

1:18

cut spending they drew credit lines they

1:20

laid people off and that way they had

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more cash to insulate themselves

1:25

from the potential disaster that was to

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come

1:27

but thanks to trillions upon trillions

1:29

of dollars of money printing and

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stimulus

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which have now started to flow into the

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markets

1:34

we have this blue line going up over

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here specifically after the slr uh the

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supplemental statutory reserves uh

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liquidity reserve requirements were

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changed on march 31st again the little

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specific details of this don't matter so

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much basically now banks and money

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market funds have so much money because

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businesses have so much money on deposit

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that

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we see this blue line go up

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this blue line is in effect

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banks

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taking treasury bonds in exchange for

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giving the federal reserve bank cash

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and the short-term effect of banks

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taking treasury to bond bonds is taking

2:14

treasury bonds out of the potential for

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the fed to maybe sell these bonds which

2:19

increases the price because there's less

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available supply of these bonds so

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increases the price of treasury bonds

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which lowers rates so in other words

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this is sort of a backdoor way for the

2:28

federal reserve to keep rates low which

2:30

is interesting because the federal

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reserve is already buying up 80 billion

2:34

dollars a month of treasury bonds

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so in other words

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the federal reserve

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is printing money like crazy we're

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buying 80 billion dollars a month of

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treasury bonds increasing

2:47

the prices of bonds but lowering the

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yields on bonds to support the economy

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lowering interest rates on things like

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credit cards and houses and so on and so

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forth mortgages right

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car loans whatever

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but on top of that we're also working

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with giving banks the opportunity to

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capture some of these treasury bonds

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with their overnight deposits taking

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them away from the market for a

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potential sale and now also supporting

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interest rates staying lower interest

3:15

rates staying lower is very

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accommodative which props up this market

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with a lot of funny money in other words

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we got so much cash we're now using that

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cash

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to make it easier to borrow more cash

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but the problem is we're not really

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borrowing more cash in fact commercial

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lending is falling substantially

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commercial lending and lending in

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general is falling so much that banks

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are basically begging people to borrow

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money look at joe biden announcing a

3:40

couple weeks ago that the sba is willing

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to take on way more loans than ever

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before if you're a small business you

3:46

want a really big eidl loan hit them up

3:49

they'll take care of you

3:50

because

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essentially what we're trying to do is

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make this fugazi economy a little bit

3:55

stronger if we can encourage businesses

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to actually borrow money spend the money

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hiring people and building

4:01

infrastructure or building new machinery

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or building out warehouses or factories

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or whatever and hiring people to do that

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then maybe our employment rate our

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unemployment rate will finally go down

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more

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we'll have better job reports we'll

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finally deal with this chip and supply

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crisis we'll finally lower that

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inflationary impact ironically by

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finally having more workers employed

4:23

businesses need maybe potentially some

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more money to employ people but

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businesses aren't taking the money

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because businesses already have enough

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money and so what's happening is

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businesses and corporations and people

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and individuals with high savings rates

4:34

that we've seen recently

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have been buying every single dip this

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is why monday

4:39

when we thought that's it buckle up

4:41

everybody this is the perfect storm to

4:43

buy the dip

4:44

sign up for that stocks and psychology

4:46

money course because we got a lot of buy

4:47

and sell alerts coming up

4:49

buckle up

4:50

we didn't really get an entertaining

4:52

ride

4:54

still bought and sold stuff but we

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didn't really get an entertaining ride

4:57

because come tuesday everybody had

4:59

started buying the dip within the last

5:01

30 minutes of monday which led into a

5:03

rally on tuesday and all of a sudden

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that dead cat bounce just turned into a

5:07

zombie riding a rocket ship to the moon

5:08

and here we go everything's taken off

5:10

again spacks are taking off high risk

5:12

plays are taking off again crypto slowly

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creeping back up

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it's crazy we're just in this crazy

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world

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of all of this extra money

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and when you see the headlines that the

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federal reserve

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is doubling

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the uh

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amount of money that they're willing to

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accept from counterparties

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is just a sign that there is some fat

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cat bank that literally has so much

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money they hit the 80 billion limit

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because the limit used to be 30 bill now

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it's 80 bill now it's 160 billion or it

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was 80 bill now it's 160 billion there

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are 77 counterparties or mostly banks

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participating in this we've got almost

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1.3 trillion dollars going into this

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which if i have to divide the the amount

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that we have going into the reverse

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repos by 77 counterparties uh oops uh

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just disconnected my screen there but no

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problem that's about 16.6 billion

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dollars per bank

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which the if the limit was 80 billion

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why is it a problem what's the problem

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because there's some fat cat bank that

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literally has so much money

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that they needed a little bit of an

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extension in terms of how much money

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they can prop into the reverse repos and

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the fed's like sure we'll take some more

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stimulus in other words we'll help we'll

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let you help us lower interest rates for

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the time being before we begin our taper

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and we'll just accommodate the market

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even more because we do still want that

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unemployment rate to go down hopefully

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we don't create more

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inflation but since we think inflation's

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going to be transitory we're not so

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worried about it

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so may as well just keep accommodating

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this crazy market now on one side you've

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got a lot of people that are like this

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market's going to crash man like this

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there's no way this is sustainable but

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on the other side the catalyst for a

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crash aren't really here and even though

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people on the other side are like yeah

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there's probably going to be a crash one

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day

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we don't actually think it's going to be

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soon because we're the catalysts we

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thought the best catalyst was

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potentially this week ever grant crisis

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budget crisis debt ceiling crisis uh

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crisis with uh with with um

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the infrastructure negotiation jerome

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powell talking about a potential taper

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like we had the perfect

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pot of crap

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to make this market crash and it just it

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just three percent on the s p 500

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and these catalysts go away over the

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next three weeks so it's like we're

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going to be going into the end of the

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year with no negative catalyst at least

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that i see at this point i mean maybe

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there'll be some black swan to give us

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that correction we've all been looking

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for but this could be a full year here

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without a five percent correction in the

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s p 500 it's nuts

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it's absolutely nuts

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uh so if you're wondering what those

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headlines are about the counterparty uh

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deposits for reverse repos being doubled

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it's basically saying there's some fat

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cat bank that has so much more cash and

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the fed's willing to let them help

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accommodate the market a little bit more

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by keeping rates low

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that's basically all you need to know

7:55

businesses corporations got too much

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money

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people aren't borrowing enough money if

8:00

you too have too much money well call

8:02

lee use that coupon code linked down

8:04

below on the programs for building your

8:05

wealth and let's make your money make

8:07

some money

8:08

use that coupon code before friday

8:10

because

8:11

all this inflation we've got the pricing

8:12

is going to be going up but otherwise

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this whole repo thing

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it's just a fat sign that we are so

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flush with funny money right now

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and there's no catalyst for crash

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at least that i see at the moment again

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could be a black swan

8:28

but in the meantime you know people are

8:30

going to be going by on the dip every

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single freaking day

8:35

if you want to buy the dip with me

8:36

link down below

8:37

see everyone thanks so much for watching

8:39

see you next time

8:43

[Music]

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