More Disaster | Reverse Repo Limit JUST Doubled - Explained.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
hey everyone me kevin here the federal
reserve just doubled its capacity for
accepting reverse repo operations from
individual counterparties in case you
have no idea what the heck i just said
in this last sentence this video is for
you so i can explain to you why the dead
cat bounce we were expecting to be a
reality on tuesday turned into a dead
zombie that basically got up got on a
rocket ship and the market just kept
chugging along because apparently we
cannot dip the s p 500 more than three
percent without people buying the crap
out of it and buying the dip like crazy
to the point where the market just does
not want to fall
so
let's explain this
doubling
of the acceptance of reverse repos at
the federal reserve's overnight
operations
and then maybe we can understand why the
market refuses to dip or even crash
all right folks
we've seen this line before
see the blue line it goes up it means
banks and money market funds and
businesses have more cash than ever
before i'm giving you a big bottom line
i'm skipping the bs okay in fact take a
look at this
see right here march 31st kind of uh
during the coveted recession here right
march 31st of 2020 why'd the line go up
then
well because businesses panicked they
cut spending they drew credit lines they
laid people off and that way they had
more cash to insulate themselves
from the potential disaster that was to
come
but thanks to trillions upon trillions
of dollars of money printing and
stimulus
which have now started to flow into the
markets
we have this blue line going up over
here specifically after the slr uh the
supplemental statutory reserves uh
liquidity reserve requirements were
changed on march 31st again the little
specific details of this don't matter so
much basically now banks and money
market funds have so much money because
businesses have so much money on deposit
that
we see this blue line go up
this blue line is in effect
banks
taking treasury bonds in exchange for
giving the federal reserve bank cash
and the short-term effect of banks
taking treasury to bond bonds is taking
treasury bonds out of the potential for
the fed to maybe sell these bonds which
increases the price because there's less
available supply of these bonds so
increases the price of treasury bonds
which lowers rates so in other words
this is sort of a backdoor way for the
federal reserve to keep rates low which
is interesting because the federal
reserve is already buying up 80 billion
dollars a month of treasury bonds
so in other words
the federal reserve
is printing money like crazy we're
buying 80 billion dollars a month of
treasury bonds increasing
the prices of bonds but lowering the
yields on bonds to support the economy
lowering interest rates on things like
credit cards and houses and so on and so
forth mortgages right
car loans whatever
but on top of that we're also working
with giving banks the opportunity to
capture some of these treasury bonds
with their overnight deposits taking
them away from the market for a
potential sale and now also supporting
interest rates staying lower interest
rates staying lower is very
accommodative which props up this market
with a lot of funny money in other words
we got so much cash we're now using that
cash
to make it easier to borrow more cash
but the problem is we're not really
borrowing more cash in fact commercial
lending is falling substantially
commercial lending and lending in
general is falling so much that banks
are basically begging people to borrow
money look at joe biden announcing a
couple weeks ago that the sba is willing
to take on way more loans than ever
before if you're a small business you
want a really big eidl loan hit them up
they'll take care of you
because
essentially what we're trying to do is
make this fugazi economy a little bit
stronger if we can encourage businesses
to actually borrow money spend the money
hiring people and building
infrastructure or building new machinery
or building out warehouses or factories
or whatever and hiring people to do that
then maybe our employment rate our
unemployment rate will finally go down
more
we'll have better job reports we'll
finally deal with this chip and supply
crisis we'll finally lower that
inflationary impact ironically by
finally having more workers employed
businesses need maybe potentially some
more money to employ people but
businesses aren't taking the money
because businesses already have enough
money and so what's happening is
businesses and corporations and people
and individuals with high savings rates
that we've seen recently
have been buying every single dip this
is why monday
when we thought that's it buckle up
everybody this is the perfect storm to
buy the dip
sign up for that stocks and psychology
money course because we got a lot of buy
and sell alerts coming up
buckle up
we didn't really get an entertaining
ride
still bought and sold stuff but we
didn't really get an entertaining ride
because come tuesday everybody had
started buying the dip within the last
30 minutes of monday which led into a
rally on tuesday and all of a sudden
that dead cat bounce just turned into a
zombie riding a rocket ship to the moon
and here we go everything's taken off
again spacks are taking off high risk
plays are taking off again crypto slowly
creeping back up
it's crazy we're just in this crazy
world
of all of this extra money
and when you see the headlines that the
federal reserve
is doubling
the uh
amount of money that they're willing to
accept from counterparties
is just a sign that there is some fat
cat bank that literally has so much
money they hit the 80 billion limit
because the limit used to be 30 bill now
it's 80 bill now it's 160 billion or it
was 80 bill now it's 160 billion there
are 77 counterparties or mostly banks
participating in this we've got almost
1.3 trillion dollars going into this
which if i have to divide the the amount
that we have going into the reverse
repos by 77 counterparties uh oops uh
just disconnected my screen there but no
problem that's about 16.6 billion
dollars per bank
which the if the limit was 80 billion
why is it a problem what's the problem
because there's some fat cat bank that
literally has so much money
that they needed a little bit of an
extension in terms of how much money
they can prop into the reverse repos and
the fed's like sure we'll take some more
stimulus in other words we'll help we'll
let you help us lower interest rates for
the time being before we begin our taper
and we'll just accommodate the market
even more because we do still want that
unemployment rate to go down hopefully
we don't create more
inflation but since we think inflation's
going to be transitory we're not so
worried about it
so may as well just keep accommodating
this crazy market now on one side you've
got a lot of people that are like this
market's going to crash man like this
there's no way this is sustainable but
on the other side the catalyst for a
crash aren't really here and even though
people on the other side are like yeah
there's probably going to be a crash one
day
we don't actually think it's going to be
soon because we're the catalysts we
thought the best catalyst was
potentially this week ever grant crisis
budget crisis debt ceiling crisis uh
crisis with uh with with um
the infrastructure negotiation jerome
powell talking about a potential taper
like we had the perfect
pot of crap
to make this market crash and it just it
just three percent on the s p 500
and these catalysts go away over the
next three weeks so it's like we're
going to be going into the end of the
year with no negative catalyst at least
that i see at this point i mean maybe
there'll be some black swan to give us
that correction we've all been looking
for but this could be a full year here
without a five percent correction in the
s p 500 it's nuts
it's absolutely nuts
uh so if you're wondering what those
headlines are about the counterparty uh
deposits for reverse repos being doubled
it's basically saying there's some fat
cat bank that has so much more cash and
the fed's willing to let them help
accommodate the market a little bit more
by keeping rates low
that's basically all you need to know
businesses corporations got too much
money
people aren't borrowing enough money if
you too have too much money well call
lee use that coupon code linked down
below on the programs for building your
wealth and let's make your money make
some money
use that coupon code before friday
because
all this inflation we've got the pricing
is going to be going up but otherwise
this whole repo thing
it's just a fat sign that we are so
flush with funny money right now
and there's no catalyst for crash
at least that i see at the moment again
could be a black swan
but in the meantime you know people are
going to be going by on the dip every
single freaking day
if you want to buy the dip with me
link down below
see everyone thanks so much for watching
see you next time
[Music]
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