The Fed JUST Changed their Target AGAIN | HOUSING CRASH

wow the FED is back at it again changing

once again how they want to analyze data

this morning out with yet another

potential thing that the Federal Reserve

wants to highlight as a priority over

other issues we're going to talk about

that in those Trends in this video it's

important to pay attention to this

especially on the eve of jobs data

tomorrow and CPI data next week we'll

briefly touch on those uh but first as

you know this is in Phase it's up like

6.8% today this is going to be part of

our discussion just want to mention I

shorted this sucker right here at 956

this morning made $99,500

on a 20K bet so 50% cuz I closed the

sucker right here at 1056 those are the

kind of alerts I like to send to my

course members and the stocks and

psychology of money group send all my

alerts so not every trade is perfect but

we are way up today got another trade

going as well I hope to close that one

profitable as well we'll see how much

profit we could eek out of that but I

took a little bit of profit on this one

threw it into another place so we'll see

what happens but here's that trade

history you can see it let's go that

coupon code does expire tomorrow evening

we did extend it from Easter because we

were getting so many emails but I do

have religious people in the office who

don't reply to emails on a religious

holiday makes sense I just didn't think

about that up front my fault so we

extended the coupon until Friday night

anyway so what is did the FED just say

well we just had Barkin say the same

usual Barkin comes out and says hey you

know we have time before cutting rates

okay we've heard that before but gouby

comes out with a new one he shrugs off

the inflation pickup of Feb and Jan and

instead says that the most valuable

near-term indicator now is not a

deterioration in the jobs Market or

near-term inflation Figures it's all

it's actually just the housing market

now the housing market is is really

interesting because I warned that

housing prices were going to come down I

warned this starting in q1

2022 and that is exactly what happened

now we have the beauty of hindsight uh

we have the beauty of hindsight here by

being able to look and say hey look at

this here was May of 2022 uh March April

May that's when we peaked out prices

fell into the fourth quarter of 2022

prices then Rose in 2023 as the stock

market recovered and then we got another

lull in Q3 Q4 of

2023 now prices are trending up again at

the beginning of the year but we're

hitting lower highs now those of you who

are stock Traders know that this could

potentially beet

either a breakout to the downside or

some kind of more near-term correction

so the question is where could this kind

of uh correction be most pronounced and

is this potentially that is a softening

in the real estate market is this

potentially going to lead to Fed rate

cuts the Dallas fed actually just put

out a piece that suggested hey because

of our rate hikes we prevented housing

from becoming even more overinflated and

we actually helped make housing more

affordable which is a little Looney

because when you look at mortgage rates

at 7% today nobody's going oh housing is

more affordable if anything is way less

affordable but the point is they have

clearly put a lid on prices with the

right action the biggest correction was

in 2022 the question is is that just the

beginning of the dip we're about to get

and so the way to really Analyze This is

start looking at markets that are a

little potentially exposed to

overbuilding overbuilding is a way and

this is going to blow some people's

minds but uh I'm I'm about to make an

argument about why illegal immigration

actually helps a certain amount of real

estate and and this is like so broken uh

nobody should be condoning illegal

immigration and I'm not in this video I

want to be clear about this but

remember during Co people moved to

markets uh in areas like Vegas Arizona

Texas and Florida okay great so we get a

surge of population there those are easy

places to build so you build more homes

okay fantastic so you build more homes

because you have more people you get

maybe equilibrium in the market right or

a slight increase in prices that's

fantastic where are you not building

more homes well you're not building more

homes where uh you're not getting a

surge of population where are you not

getting a surge of population ah places

like California where where I predicted

when I ran for governor in 2021 that

because California is not building

enough homes the state is actually going

to get more expensive not less expensive

even though people are leaving the state

or were leaving the state in 2122

because of the lack of building we would

actually see home prices go up and

that's exactly what the LA Times just

put on their front page I tweeted that

here just a few days ago so we know

that's happening well guess where a lot

of illegal border crossers go to fill up

more houses they don't go to Texas or

Florida they may cross the border there

but where do they usually end up in the

liberal states the liberal states are

the ones building less housing Supply so

you're actually now instead of seeing

this continuation of a covid wave where

more population is going into Florida

and Texas what you're actually seeing uh

is you're seeing States like California

get more immigration again while you're

kind of somewhat stalling out on 2023

population Trends in States like Florida

and Texas

uh and and these are just the current

estimates we're not suggesting that uh

they're definitely like oh you're going

down or or you're collapsing in uh

population but uh what you're seeing is

a state like Texas that saw a population

increase of a 5% during covid uh only

saw

1.6% increase in population between 22

to 23 uh similar story for a state uh

like uh Florida so Florida and Texas

you're you know you previously had these

dramatic inflows of uh you know nearly a

million people going into a state like

Texas uh and that growth uh back then

was phenomenal you know you had you had

excellent growth and it really demanded

more building that's fantastic we like

more building because it makes housing

more affordable but the problem is when

your population is only growing at 1%

well but you're building substantially

more Homes at some point rents are going

to have to come

down now we're still waiting for the

latest numbers in California to actually

show population going positive again but

as you can see here most of the dip in

California happened early in the

pandemic that's the same kind of reverse

that you had in Texas and Florida where

you had most of the surge at the

beginning of the pandemic that led to an

explosion of new construction and now

what you're seeing is rents

substantially start to decline in fact

when I go to zillow.com and I look at

areas in let's say Dallas Texas and I

want to start finding what's available

for rent the number of properties for

rent is insane we could go to some of

these areas close to hospitals north of

downtown uh Texas and what you'll find

is you'll find buildings that are trying

to ask $3,700 or here's one that's

asking

$4,200 you're going to find these more

expensive buildings here's an apartment

building that's offering one-bedrooms

and Studios from 1300 to 1369 what

you're finding is a lot of these

properties are now offer ing free

applications free fees and up to 4 weeks

free just to get properties rented one

of the problems is you've got so much

new construction as you click around

here and they all have plenty of units

available that they have to give

concessions to actually get these units

filled let me give you another example

here here is a 16 uh unit available

building it's called The Flats on

Rosland AV in Dallas all of the 16 units

are available here so they've either

just put these on the market or they

can't rent them out but we're looking at

little one-bedroom units they're trying

to get 1,900 some as low as 1,600 for

all these one-bedrooms but the reality

is this is clickbait because when I go

to their website they're already

offering you two bedrooms starting at

13.99 well that's not what they're

listing here they're not listing any

two-bedrooms at uh

$3.99 uh that's because on Zillow

they're showing these high prices to

show off to potential buyers oh yeah

we're getting really good numbers we're

getting good cap operates but it's all

clickbait because to the tenants and the

Tenant facing sites they're offering one

month free for March movein and what

happens is that's the offer then smart

tenants go in and say I need two months

free and I'll sign right now and they're

getting it so we're starting to see

rents decline in these overbuilt markets

and one of the ways we could start

seeing in at least the single family

space that you're starting to get an

increase of inventory which puts

downward pressure on price here's just

an example on the single family space

quickly this property sold in 2020 they

listed it for rent for 4500 dropped the

price to 4200 about a month later

dropped a price to $4,000 about a month

later dropped it to 37.50 about a month

later looks like they finally got it

rented the tenant probably left and you

know sometime here in the spring or

whatever because it's up for rent again

they actually listed it for less than

what they rented for the last time or at

least were advertised for the last time

still not renting dropping the price

again this kind of stock is going to

keep happening why does it matter for

the FED because owners equivalent rents

are stagnating they're flattening

they're falling this is something that

is going to drive core inflation down

and that favorite multivariant core

inflation we want to see this come down

and housing is a huge component pce it's

about a 25% component part of a CPI it's

about a 34% component so right here

we're seeing the stagnation of inflation

from housing but the actual leading data

suggests we are going to see a very

quick slowdown uh maybe not necessarily

quick but we're going to see a Slowdown

on this housing data this is good for an

inflation point of view but is it going

to be offset by housing or non-housing

Services uh stagnating possibly but it's

very interesting to see ghoul spe

highlight how important housing is going

to be because we are seeing a Slowdown

in housing especially in those overbuilt

areas now in my opinion this creates

fantastic opportunity ities for a

company like house Haack my real estate

startup warrants are due uh on Monday

and of course we have a fund raise going

on that ends June 30 uh uh 30th so make

sure you're part of the fundraises if

you're interested in getting into our

real estate startup house act house

act.com 2024 to read the PPM and learn

more about the investment opportunity uh

there's risk with every investment

always remember that uh but what's

really interesting as somebody who's

working in the housing market on a daily

basis and I'm seeing this happen I don't

think that ghoul spe is wrong the

question is just what's going to happen

first are we going to get a bad jobs

read and bad uh uh CPI read before we

actually get that housing data showing

up and that's where I'm concerned so I

want to be very clear and most people

know this the people who have been

following me for a while they know I've

been bullish on this Market since

November of 2022 uh I've called the Nike

Swoosh the volatile Nike Swoosh recovery

and it's done very very well uh and I've

been bullish for the greater part of 15

months however for the last three and a

half weeks I've been bearish I've been

bearish because I've seen the following

I've seen BTC topping out I've seen uh

the NASDAQ topping out I've seen gold

rocketing which is a fear signal oil and

yields rising and the market still

thinks we're going to get a June cut I

think that's too soon I don't think

we're going to get that and I think

we're just one bad jobs in CPI report

away from a major correction I do think

ghoul is right in the longer run over

the the next year we are going to see

housing data hurt rental data we're see

going to see rental data come down as

we've just seen especially in the

overbuilt areas that is going to be

supportive of rate Cuts but I don't know

if we're going to get good jobs and CPI

reports before that and that's the

danger we have to be prepared for now

the danger right now is all in my

opinion it's going to take with this

fragile glass Foundation that we're on

is a bad jobs report potentially

tomorrow morning 5:30 a.m. if we get an

average hourly earnings read I mean I'll

read out the expectations here in just a

moment uh right now the average estimate

is.3 median estimate is.3 if we get 04

or above on those average hourly

earnings this Market is going to take

the diant dupsies really quickly worse

if we get our core CPI numbers next week

on Wednesday that come in expected to

come in at. 3 survey says average is a.

29 median is three so people actually

leaning closer to 0.25 or. 3 if we get a

point4 handle on that big Poopsy doopsy

now if we get good reports hey maybe the

party can keep going maybe everything

will be fine and the party will just

keep rocking on that's great because

eventually if the party keeps rocking on

we are going to get to that better

disinflationary housing data that is

happening I'm not worried about that

that will support rate cuts that will

support long run bullishness especially

on interest rate sensitive I'm just

worried

that we get a correction on some of

these next data sets then the FED delays

the June rate cut to September and we

have a 3month correction period now the

last time we had a 3-month correction

everybody thought oh that's say the Nike

swo recovery is over no I just think

there's going to be a better riding

opportunity soon and I think it's coming

fast so we'll see I don't know I'll be

covering these reports live and if all

the data keeps coming in Golden no

problem I was wrong on my 3 weeks of

bearishness just saying right now with

the levels of greed and fear I'm not too

optimistic on that short term and here's

why thanks so much for watching we'll

see you in the next one check out the

stocks and sight group and get my trade

alerts bye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising in CR

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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