Warning: 2024 Stock Market to Go "NEGATIVE"

hey everyone me Kevin here well we have

a warning for 2024 it is exactly what

happened here the S&P 500 went negative

for the first 5 days of the year you

have to turn off the average

candlesticks to see it but I want you to

pay attention to this right here here's

the 29th we've got a close of

47531 you can see that at the top and

the red numbers there on Weeble okay we

just closed on the first fifth five days

of the year the fifth day of the year

4746 slightly negative a Schmid negative

what does that mean well take a look at

this recent history we have here of

annual stock market performance from

2019 this is not a guarantee this

obviously only goes back 5 years of data

so for what it's worth it could be

entirely worthless but this is something

we've been paying attention to and this

morning I suggested it was very

important that as much as it seemed like

it wasn't going to happen we actually

close positive but very decently

positive on the S&P 500 ideally I said

1.58% positive so we could at least we

break even with how we Clos the year

Well we did end up rallying into the

close which was remarkable let's go to

the average candlesticks here well we

rallied throughout the day I guess is

the way to put it let's go to the five

minute candle and what do we see on the

five-minute candle look at that Movement

we had today the market actually wanted

to close positive but we closed only up

1 .43 15 basis points off therefore were

15 basis points negative for the first 5

days of the year the only other time

we've been negative in the past 5 years

well of the past 5 years of data was

2022 we were negative 1.9% for the first

5 days we had a negative 19% year we

just closed down 15 basis points which

15 basis points out of 190 is only about

7.9% of that which would mean maybe if

you multiplied these numbers maybe maybe

maybe maybe the warning that this is

giving you is that the S&P 500 if we had

that same scale from 2022 might close

down 1.53% this year big deal obviously

nobody knows this is just one data point

could be entirely worthless what are the

Bears saying well the Bears are saying

especially JP Morgan Marco kovic big big

big bear argument coming back oh you

know what

um inflation's going to come back yeah

that's the big argument right now is

that inflation is going to come back of

course we've got the 102 inversion that

we could talk about but I'm not finding

inflation coming back every single day

I'm looking for disinflation I'm not

finding it we are bull steepening right

now in the treasuries market we're

negative 35 basis points on the 10 two

if you don't know what that means it's a

good thing however that 10-year treasury

is kind of stuck around four we're not

really getting the real push down and we

might not until we actually get cuts

from the FED Bostic this morning came

out and suggested you

know I don't see rate Cuts until the

third quarter yeah well the market

disagrees with you and usually the FED

wants to align with what the Market's

doing and so what you might need is a

jpw on January 31st who says look we are

not cutting yet and we have no plans too

for the foreseeable meetings because

right now the market believes we have a

61% chance of our first rate cut on

March 20th followed by uh an over 92%

chance that we are at one to two cuts by

May so if we're not looking at uh the

first cut until the third quarter we'd

have to have no cuts for January March

May and June so Bostic little bit

bearish here maybe he's siding with

kovic he argues that is bosk argues that

hey the labor market is still strong

enough we can keep going however as

we've read and discussed on ec.com we

already know this the unemployment

problem is real and yes there are

dangers we talked about the debt

recession as well if you haven't seen

that yet talked about the debt recession

and some things to keep in mind when it

comes to the chartism on the debt

recession but the most important thing

in my opinion has to do with what

happens with the labor recession you can

read all those details on ec.com will we

see a labor

recession nobody knows so kovic over at

JP Morgan realizes this as well what

does he focus on he focuses on the

second wave of inflation is coming so

far we're not seeing the signs of that

in fact when we look at what's going on

with the Saudi Arabia oil Cuts because

of weak demand from China we see that

oil slipped 3 to 4% today Western blend

3.78% Brent down about 3 uh 3.9% sitting

about 76 bucks on International oil

right now we are right back at where we

were in July in terms of levels as well

as December and we're down from that

Spike of the pain of the Red Sea there's

also now talk that houthis are

negotiating directly and striking deals

as reported by Dutch newspapers directly

with companies like MK or other shipping

companies mostly because the United

States political bias aside fail to

protect shipping lanes in the Red Sea

despite promising that they would in

fact we covered this thoroughly on

ec.com where we argued once us warships

entered the region we'd have stability

and the Red Sea shipping pains would

relax

instead well as expected warship showed

up on Christmas Eevees on Christmas Eve

were not able to protect shipping lanes

enough shippers again paused shipments

then began negotiating directly with the

houthis who used to be labeled

terrorists Biden unlabeled them as

terrorists but essentially we now have

Western corporations negotiating

directly with used to be terrorist

organizations to have safe pass passage

in the Red Sea now this again it's not a

political argument every time I mention

this because I mentioned in the live

this morning people start saying well

you know it's a response to Palestine

are you saying you support the killing

of women women and children in Palestine

no I'm just saying Western companies are

now negotiating directly with what used

to be a terrorist group because the

United States didn't protect the

shipping lanes that's all we're saying

okay this is not an Israel pal video we

could save that for another video but

the point is it's actually a bullish

Catalyst because the longer we have the

inflationary pressure in the Red Sea the

more damage we cause to shipping

internationally shipment rates for 40

yard containers from Shanghai to radam

which is all the way across Europe it's

like the furthest distance you can

really go uh you're looking at up about

230% so hopefully we see relaxation here

I also don't think we're going to see

those price increases which are producer

price increases

show up in consumer prices mostly

because businesses are struggling to

continue raising prices they have raised

prices a lot but they're going to take

that pain in the margin I always like to

say they're going to take it in the m in

the

margin so we'll see this earning season

will be really clear about company's

ability to continue to pass on prices

but the information we got today is it

really scary are the Bears saying

anything new that they haven't said

before no they're saying be wary of the

second wave of inflation is this

potentially bad news for the year yes if

we scale it is it really that bad maybe

not the reality is if the Federal

Reserve s the soft Landing yes the Ponzi

so to speak can continue of money

printing our way out of a recession as

long as there's no inflation whether

it's the rig data or actually additional

inflation I like to just skip the data

and look directly at what companies are

doing and again every single day as we

review this in our course member live

streams which remember you get lifetime

access if you join any of the courses

linked at me

kevin.com you could see the research we

do we do a lot of research on companies

we're not seeing companies willing to

raise prices anymore there's a limit to

how much they can anymore so we'll see

obviously we have CES going on as well

right now the CES News is Fant well

let's just say a lot of people are very

excited about it so far specifically

with what we're hearing from uh Nvidia

and as always at CES there are exciting

new products that are announced from

Sony and Samsung and LG like the RTX

4080 super coming out from Nvidia for

$999 a more reasonable price they're

arguing this is also very interesting

because it kind of feds into this price

competitive nature AI chips are still

like really inflated right but that's

because there's so few of them instead

what you're now getting is competition

from companies like AMD and Nvidia is

like oh yeah you know I know AMD got the

radon 7900 at $899 so let's cut the

price of the Nvidia chips uh by about

$200 which now puts pressure on AMD it's

a price War just like what you get in

the EVS that doesn't make any of those

companies bad it just it's just the

nature of consumers have less money and

so they're being more careful with where

they're spending it so we talked Bostic

we did have fed's Bowman talk as well

Michelle's Bo Michelle Bowman said that

inflation could fall to the fed's 2%

Target with interest rates held at

current levels and offered potential

backing for lowering costs if those

price pressures fade quote should

inflation continue to fall closer to our

2% goal over time it will eventually

become appropriate to begin the process

of lowering our policy rate we're not at

that point yet uh this is very normal

we've had a lot of people even this

weekend uh like Loretta Master complain

about easing Financial conditions and

will those easier Financial conditions

hurt progress on inflation

well if you want a leading indicator

look at what companies are doing even

Nvidia at CES it is a leading indicator

watch what the Autos are doing look at

byd cut prices on byd battery electric

vehicles these are things we want to pay

attention to so again I'm I'm focused on

the data the data to me says inflation's

going down the bearers are saying yes

there could be a second wave I don't see

it when and if I do I will continue to

report it however I will say this is

more bearish than it is bullish maybe

this year will'll end up flat but if

anything's positive I do think we're

going to end up getting a BTC ETF

Wednesday it almost seems certain no

guarantees though all right thanks for

watching folks we'll see you in the next

one bye I got to catch a flight why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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