Will the Market Disaster Continue this Week?

is the market going into the toilet

today hey everyone

meet kevin here well to help determine

whether or not the market will be going

into the toilet today

or even this week it is helpful to

analyze what destroyed our market

last week and compare to this week

yes we are going to start by looking at

the good old

10 year treasury in fact i'm gonna go

ahead and just hide myself for a moment

because this is what matters

this is the madness that we had last

week right here the 25th when we had a

disastrous thursday

when we hit these peak prices peak

sustained prices we had short-term

peaks within the day of even as high as

breaking 1.6 on the 10-year

we have settled it down we settled it

down on friday we settle down

substantially in futures

we're pretty stable right now around

1.43

on the 10-year this is this is good news

this is better than

potentially high settling right now

we're lower than where we were

thursday we're lower than where we were

friday and we've got some stabling

stabilizing happening dollar is

stabilizing it's not free falling like

it was

that's good we've got oil prices

sustained on talks that stimulus is

coming

obviously third stimulus package coming

we've got the johnson and johnson

vaccine

we've got a lot of things to be uh

excited about right now

now bitcoin on the other hand had a you

know sharp 20

sell-off but i have to say bitcoin also

somewhat recovering right now in fact if

we go ahead and pull up robin hood we'll

see

we had this pretty dang solid sell-off

here from a high of around

seven thousand four hundred almost fifty

seven five uh down to this low over here

of about

forty five three but if we go into the

day now we're at about

forty seven eight and we're rising into

the day

so it looks like the market so far is

expected to be enthusiastic this week

some of those treasury bond uh you know

auctions that we saw last week

we're not expecting to see those issues

get repeated

this week especially now as the market

is coming to terms with yes

there's going to be another round of

stimulus yes that means the money

printer is going to be running more

now we've priced that in are we good can

we get back to normal now

well let's see what the stock market

futures are doing and then let's talk

about some earnings to pay attention to

as well some stocks

that i'm personally thinking maybe it's

time for a transition in

let's go ahead and jump in so first

things first let's go ahead and

look at the futures here's what we've

got and this is this isn't even really

the futures anymore at this point

futures were green right now we are

already in pre-market trading it is

about a 6 a.m eastern time or

3 a.m pacific time right now we've got

fisker selling off a little bit after a

massive rally last week keep in mind

we might continue to see a bit of the

sell-off at fisker as

peak media fades remember last week they

were on fox

cnbc and they were on cnn

so they really hit the the media circus

or i should swell both i guess media

circuit

last week and i wouldn't be surprised to

see a lot of this enthusiasm

fade from fisker especially since

they're probably about one to two years

behind a lucid uh the cciv emerger

this is really it that we have for

negative right now fisker bed bath and

arcturus is really flat here uh we've

got walgreens pretty flat as well but if

i now go ahead and sort by gainers here

look at this we got cli up 12

in the pre market here amc 11

amc 11 and potentially gaining here

uh in in this pre-market rate yep here

we go in the pre-market we got a really

nice

sustained really gain here with amc

pushing pushing nice and straight up in

the pre-market hours we'll see how this

develops obviously through the rest of

the day

sorting through that the rest we got zom

charge point plug power micro vision

matterport up seven percent uh e-bikes

up another seven percent really

almost feels like a lot of the things

that we're selling off last week

coming back here strong uh to open this

week up we've even got till ray we've

got

cannabis palantir turning around over 25

again

we've got churchill capital up seven

percent this is why and it's one of the

things that i drill

into us in the psychology of a money

course

is never squander never

ever squander a red day in the stock

market if you haven't checked that out

yet make sure to use that coupon code

hotel link down below

not only can you join me in the private

live streams but you get the lectures

lifetime access to those and any new

ones that i add but

obviously you get a really good

community as well that'll help you not

squander the red days buy on those red

days we got nano dimensions sitting at

10

50 still you know a far cry from where

we've been at some of the crazy highs

we've seen

some of this has to do with a lot of

outflows leaving arc invest for example

but there's a lot of enthusiasm to see

money flowing back into arc invest here

especially after kathy wood also gave

her a bullish thesis again reiterating

her strategy for investing in tech and

innovation and saying that look

when these things sell off that's the

time to buy tesla's still though under

700.

for me personally tesla under 700 very

juicy target

even though i love etsy uh and i love en

phase as well

i'll be targeting out of these three i

would be targeting tesla under 700 as

something to add to

uh and end phase under 180 i would add

to that as well

etsy right here at 225 that's about peak

now in terms of some of the stocks that

i've actually kind of been uh

putting on the on sort of the this list

of uh

that we'll call them the naughty list i

have to admit i've been looking at some

stocks that i don't know that i really

want to be in forever but some stocks

that i might want to rotate into some of

my favorite tech plays

or my innovation place and so that might

mean it might be time

soon for me to cut ties finally with

some of these big winners like

and i i know when i say big winners and

these names it's like really those were

big winners yeah

they were big winners as well but they

were more part of the conservative part

of the portfolio

uh home depot lowe's target

uh even zoom during obviously covet

you know we'll see i mean zoom reports

earnings today but it might

we might be getting to that time where

does it make sense to

maybe reduce my position in those or

just close out my position in those

and transition that over to getting

tesla under 700 for example

i'm a little over concentrated in tesla

but obviously

investing in some of the other growth

opportunities as well that i'm excited

about

whether that's end phase or some of the

other uh

ev plays that exists like for example

neo who's reporting earnings today uh

neo we

will be reporting earnings into a

euphoric market which is good

today appears to be opening as a

euphoric day compared to what was last

week

uh which is very potentially a very

welcomed

day uh and this is good when we have

earnings on days like today usually

uh companies can get rewarded very

handsomely now neo

at the moment tesla's up three percent

neo at the moment

uh in pre-market hours in pre-market

trading here

it's uh trading actually uh up about 5.9

percent

this is another reason you really want

to be careful you know people regularly

say ah you don't want to catch a falling

knife on those red days um

yeah you kind of do because your targets

when you hit your targets like forty

five dollars on neo

those are usually there for a very short

period of time like

the downs can be a blink of an eye and

then usually you look back on go and

shoot a putting more money then

yeah i mean that's the way it works but

anyway

neo at 48.45 still i mean there's a huge

catalyst here today

for neo neo reporting earnings today

along with other companies

i think for neo to have a big pop today

neo's really going to have to prove

their margin

right now their margin somewhere between

12 to 14 and a half percent

if they can bump this to 18 plus

i have a good feeling that neo could

move positively pretty strongly now if

they come out and their margin goes down

if their delivery growth rate slows

those are going to be risk factors as

well as updates on the battery swapping

technology

something that a lot of people are

skeptical of though many people are very

bullish off i've got a big position in

neo

about the same size as i have in cciv

these are sort of my alternate bets

next to tesla so we'll have to see how

earnings come in today but neo

big big big day for neo so watch that

one i'm not going to be playing anything

short term on neo but it's

definitely one i want to see for i want

to i want to see what kind of change in

trends are we seeing over at neo

uh and who knows if we get a miss it's

gonna depend if i'm gonna add more to

neo depending on how bad the miss is

if we get a beat i'm not sure that i

would add

after the beat because i think the

stock's gonna move quickly i think we

can go from 48

where we are in pre-market now pretty

quickly back to 60 dollars a share

especially since this is such a large

catalyst event

could be a big 10-d printer so to speak

zoom

reports today i have to say zoom is one

of those that i'm like man if they just

beat

big which i don't know if they will

we're gonna have to see how much they

can really convert

though zoom tends to price on guidance

and i think zoom's gonna come out and

say something like yo we

we don't really think uh that many new

users are continuously coming to us

that could be bad for zoom we could see

a sell-off at zoom if we see a big beat

though at zoom

and zoom ends up doing some kind of

meteoric rise

that might be an opportunity for me to

say okay zoom we've had a nice ride time

for something different

lemonade on the other hand lemonade is a

company that pretty much the only thing

people say about it is

ah lemonade overvalued company

look it's expensive it's an insurance

company that is betting on millennials

becoming lifelong

customers their expected value for these

customers

is not going to be realized for probably

i mean at least the next two to three

years but realistically

the lifetime earnings of these customers

uh especially the millennials that they

attract at lemonade if you haven't

checked them out yet go to lemonade.com

that's not even an affiliate link but uh

they've got great products from renters

insurance

to homeowners insurance pet insurance i

think they just started life insurance

which is actually different from the

life insurance that i use

life insurance i use is at medken.com

life check it out

it's pretty easy you can sign up without

talking to anyone but lemonade

really great insurance company they

haven't checked out their life insurance

products yet but i know they use

artificial intelligence to help

essentially i mean look a lot of

companies use ai i feel like at this

point that's almost a buzzword

but lemonade really tries to sign you up

for a an insurance plan

using complete ai service

which basically means you're not talking

to a broker or they try to get you the

best price

and then they take all of the data in

from all the actions that you take like

whether you read the terms of service or

not

they take all of these factors into

account along with hundreds of other

signals that other insurance companies

don't

to risk okay who's potentially the most

risky pool

and in theory i don't say this part but

in theory they could just

offload the riskier people over to their

reinsurance companies

i'm not sure if they can divide out

their customers like this although it

would be pretty brilliant if they can

uh they do use artificial intelligence

though to risk their pool

and they do use reinsurance for about 75

percent of their portfolio so why not

just offload the riskiest seven

you know the riskiest three three

fourths so to speak

i don't know that's that's what i'd be

thinking of if i were lemonade so i

wouldn't put it past them

to do that uh we do have a workhorse

reporting before the bell

and uh we've got berkshire hathaway

reporting before the bell

can't say i'm optimistic about workhorse

i mean i know workhorses have then it

looks like a value plan i know

that we've got uh arc invest who's added

to them they're at 17 bucks they're up

five percent here in the pre-market

sure maybe we might have a beat on

earnings who knows

that miss in that usps contract though

it's a big concern

and it also concerns me for just

commercial electric vehicles across the

board because look

if the usps isn't giving their contract

to electric vehicle manufacturers

that does not send a good signal for

cost parity for the rest of the ev

industry at least in the commercial

space consumers i think are more willing

to buy

an electric vehicle even even if we're

not at cost parity yet compared to a

internal combustion engine vehicle and

that's likely because consumers

value going green and value the

transition to

energy efficiency more than a business

does because a business has to look at

it and go look

what's my break-even cost am i going to

make money on this decision

a consumer doesn't necessarily have that

same motivation they have other factors

uh we call them sort of the in

invaluables

like how much how much extra are they

paying just to be green it's kind of

like when the prius first came out

i bought one don't get me wrong but i

bought it as a real estate agent because

it was a green car and that was the

thing to do in california i was

following a trend right

and uh in my opinion the paris was

really just a dressed up

camry with a battery in it that they

were selling for like 13 grand more and

i doubt the battery cost 13 grand

or the hybrid system in total so in

other words i

knew i was paying a green premium at the

time for that

uh so obviously you know uh

commercial vehicles will electrify in

time but it might take longer and that

is a negative

signal in my opinion for workhorse as

well we do expect jerome powell

to be talking on thursday that could be

a potential market catalyst

we've got the fed beige book coming out

on wednesday the day before

unemployment data coming out on friday

that'll update our unemployment figure

that is the percentage so not just

unemployment claims coming out on

thursday

but the actual unemployment rate will

update on friday

uh and uh yeah oil prices are up

and folks hopefully hopefully we'll see

hopefully volatility settles down a

little bit this

week and we get a little bit more of a

relaxed environment so far

it looks like the volatility index will

be down the vix

we'll see them folks i wish you good

luck this week obviously i'll be

streaming throughout the week thank you

so very much for watching and folks

we'll see in the next one

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