Holy Hell | The Fed's Great Reset is Here - Total Capitulation.

what the hell is happening this is a

complete disaster look at some of these

numbers a firm down 22 percent AMC 19 I

guess dwack isn't happy anymore after

Donald Trump's choices didn't exactly

perform as expected and therefore what

happens to wax down 17 Robin Hood's down

13. Disney 12 Redfin 12 after layoffs

and getting out of the home flipping

business this morning matterport down to

two dollars and sixty cents Tesla's down

like 5.6 to 180 bucks I I don't even

think it's recognized how crazy that is

the lows Tesla hit this summer was about

635 dollars and I remember everybody

making fun of me because I was on

vacation people like every time Kevin

goes on vacation the market crashes okay

well 180 is now the equivalent of

540 in other words almost an entire 100

hundred dollars cheaper for Tesla stock

than the lows that we saw this summer

this is a complete disaster and at the

same time and this is just the most

weird part about all of this at the same

time as this is actually Market

capitulation is happening margin calls

are without a doubt happening at the

same time what is the fear index or

volatility index tell us oh don't worry

volatility is only up 1.8 percent and

don't worry it's nothing outside of the

range of normalcy over here and it's

certainly nowhere near to the

capitulation levels that we've seen of

March of 2020 and of course January well

I'm sorry uh December of 2018 and

earlier in 2018. these we we are at like

no fear levels it's remarkable how low

the fear levels are right now and it's

kind of scary because it's leading a lot

of folks to say the real capitulation

comes when that volatility index spikes

and then we just get wiped out you have

any debt you're wiped out you're done so

what is happening and that's what we

have to talk about in this video no it's

not the Black Friday coupon codes it is

a host of disasters so I'm going to list

these because we've got about six issues

that we've got to talk about when we

understand these they'll give us a lot

more clarity issue number one earnings

complete disaster this was expected Not

only was this expected though but

remember that Goldman Sachs believes

that the stock market tends to bottom

about six three to six months before the

bottom of earnings remember Goldman sax

believes the bottom of the market occurs

six to nine months before an earnings

bottom so yes even though earnings

reports are coming in bad the bottom of

the stock market does tend to come

before the bottom in earnings the

problem is earnings are just now

starting to turn so what if we're

potentially a year away from the bottom

in corporate earnings well that might

mean we have another six months of pain

to go and so folks are realizing this is

the kind of Market where the one thing

you cannot do is call bottom because as

soon as you say this is the bottom you

just get reamed you get punished so hard

and daddy Powell likes it hard he ain't

stopping with the remage and it's bad so

the earnings disaster will continue to

be felt until we are within six to nine

months of the bottom of earnings and we

have no idea where the bottom of

earnings are going to be right now that

is scary that creates fear uncertainty

and doubt a fear uncertainty and doubt

is exactly why Bank of America reported

net outflows across the board of all of

their investors on average last week

that's institutional and Retail net

outflows people are getting out now it

would make sense to get out before this

week why because not only do we have a

crazy amount of earnings which so far

have just been miss missed look at

ROBLOX look at a firm look at Disney

you've got disasters across the board

and leading indicators suggesting that

people are getting ready to spend less

money even a firm said in their earnings

call that hey it seems like wealthier

people still have some excess cash that

they're spending right now the lower

incomes are already out of their extra

stimulus cash the higher income still

has some money but what happens when

that goes away well people probably

spend less now a firm thinks more people

will borrow but a fair firm also has

this like mental mind trickery that

their default rates aren't going to go

up and I think they're smoking something

that ain't legal right now so and if it

gets you put in a Russian concentration

camp that is a true story too anyway

so earnings complete disaster the

election not the gridlock we were

expecting the only gridlock we have

right now is in counting ballots and

we're still nail biting as to whether or

not the house will actually go

Republican the expectation is that it

will but it's still a nail biter because

there is a chance that Democrats

maintain control the stock market wanted

gridlock

and we don't actually know with

certainty yet that we're going to have

that gridlock so investors rightfully so

and understandably so are saying the

same thing that they said last week why

would I buy stocks right before what

could be bad earnings and they were

right before an election which could go

bad

definitely hasn't gone good yet for the

stock market and I say good sort of in

air quotes because it depends on your

political party and stuff but for the

stock market we're expecting gridlock

and we don't have that answer yet and

why would you buy stocks the day before

CPI this is expected to be the most

dirty CPI report possible not only

because it's actually like the estimates

for the CPI are kind of high but if we

go dirty on this CPI report the S P 500

according to JPMorgan will probably drop

a solid five percent pretty much

instantaneously and that's scary nobody

wants that not only does nobody want

that but take a look at the estimates

okay now I have I have some hope but

this Market's not one to have hope in

here are the estimates for inflation

remember tomorrow the CPI report comes

out I will be live at 5 30 a.m in the

morning and I promise I will be pitching

the coupon code link down below below

because I need money to buy this dip and

in response I promise you the best

quality and more lectures I could

provide especially for the new business

course on the elite Hustlers course and

then also after I finish that course

which should be done in a couple days

I'm moving over to do new lectures for

the other courses because I'm just going

to keep providing value in this hell of

a market and uh have faith that when you

provide value people buy it and people

enjoy it and so far people are so thank

you for signing up now this is the

forecast month over month point six year

over year 7.9 core CPI 0.5 and CPI year

over year 6.5 now I actually think those

numbers are relatively High I think we

we might be able to actually beat those

and uh the JP Morgan scenarios are as

follows if we get CPI coming in at over

8.4 percent they think the stock market

the s p will fall anywhere between four

and a half to six percent if which they

think there's a 30 chance of we get an

8.1 to 8.3 percent speed so slightly hot

they think the S P 500 will go down two

to three percent if we get with a forty

percent chance according to JPM uh print

of basically ad expectations so 7.9 to

eight we might see the S P 500 rally one

to one point five percent that'd be cool

20 chance only that it'll actually come

in below actually this this includes at

so 25 chance here that we see inflation

come in at or below the print which

would be freaking awesome and they think

that cyclicals RK uh whatever will be

the best performers and uh you'll see

the S P 500 rally anywhere between two

and a half to five percent so okay cool

but again if we look at sort of the the

bulk likelihood that's probably going to

be somewhere between a plus one percent

day to minus three percent day so any in

other words anything can happen now I'm

hopeful that this CPI print Trends down

and these are the estimates on the month

over month basis from all the Banks one

of the things you're going to notice

this is for core and this is for the

month over month one of the things

you're going to notice here on the month

over month is that most of these are are

relatively in line at 0.6 percent with

the actual Economist estimates though we

do have some people suggesting point

five percent I'm surprised by that

because I was really thinking we'd be

somewhere closer to point four percent

and notice how there's nobody saying

that I don't know I mean maybe I'm just

overly hopeful and maybe that'll be a

mistake now unfortunately expectations

for inflation are not doing what we want

them to do not only are consumer

expectations for inflation trending up

we just got word that they moved up to

5.1 expectations in the next 12 months

this is bad but we also this is up from

point or five point uh 5.0 percent last

month but we also are seeing the market

this is sort of your chart of inflation

expectations clearly suggests the strong

Trend up here of inflation break evens

which means expectations for inflation

are fortunately becoming looser and

untrenched unentrenched which is bad

because if if the expectations loosen up

and they're no longer firm they start

Rising the FED has to get more

aggressive in fact you had Tom Barkin

come out this morning and said look the

process of the economy getting into

balance is going to be lengthy he says

there'll be a slow return to normal

inflation but unfortunately that slower

term threatens expectations and we

cannot let expectations rise that's

something he made Crystal Clear even

though he personally believes inflation

sort of like on the back end like we're

on that down curve he thinks the length

of time it takes could really hurt the

economy so in other words buckle up in

fact he went as far as saying look we're

starting to see pain in advertising and

some consumer discretionary we're just

starting to basically see layoffs but

what happens on page four of the

recessionary Playbook like we're not

even at that world yet in those levels

somewhat kind of suggesting that we

might end up half having to be at those

levels if inflation doesn't come down

which is pretty scary not only is that

scary but another thing that's scary is

Mr Nikki leaks over at of course the

Wall Street Journal coming out and as

usual giving us some more bad news

suggesting that investors bet the FED

could lift rates to a two-year high with

now more investors suggesting that

possibility of a Fed funds rate as high

as six percent could happen and this is

a level that we have not seen since just

before the.com bust in 2000 and it's one

that could spell far more pain ahead for

stocks and bonds yikes in fact you even

get comments here it's really hard to

see any progress on inflation in the

next four or five months I mean that's

not very bullish so now all of a sudden

if you're asking yourself man why are

things so freaking dirty in the market

right now well you have to think about

it number one earnings disaster number

two elections disaster number three

expectations that CPI is going to be a

poop show number four Nikki leaks

suggesting we're going up to six percent

we call them Nikki leaks because he's

kind of like the Wikileaks guy who you

know gets internal information and then

makes it public except this internal

information tends to be in the form of a

text message from the Federal Reserve

directly to this guy Nick and then he

posted on the Wall Street Journal

I wonder how much the FED is sponsored

for by uh by The Wall Street Journal on

top of that number five you have the

crypto rut which is in a complete

disaster right now the collapse of FTX

is terrible I don't think anybody saw

that coming the uh you know Jerome

Powell of the crypto Market FTX is

basically bankrupt the emperor has no

clothes this is like disgusting and it

was very unexpected so BTC actually

taking another leg down right now now

down to 16-2 uh quite frankly you know

if this keeps falling and it ends up

going sub 10 000 I think you're gonna

potentially see a crisis over at uh uh

at um binance as well you're going to

see margin calls you're going to see

bankruptcies Tesla's now down seven

percent the Market's falling into the

close uh this is disgusting this is a

very disgusting time and yet seriously

the vix the fear index

is at 1.64 this is so messed up like

nothing makes sense and unfortunately if

the market only bottoms when the vix

spikes we have more pain ahead now I'm

gonna give a little optimistic note in

just a moment although optimism doesn't

feel appropriate right now I'm gonna do

it anyway but first I gotta say there

could be another problem that's

happening it's the sixth reason that's

happening it's called tax loss

harvesting this is actually somewhat of

the perfect time if you have made any

money this year to look at your

portfolio and go oh look you made five

hundred thousand dollars sell five

hundred thousand dollars in losses of

stocks talk to your CPA see you in 30

days and then just re-buy your stocks

now how much higher are stocks really

going to be in 30 days I don't know do

we think stocks are going to double in

30 days probably not do we think stocks

are going to go up at 50 in 30 days

probably not maybe I mean if the

election uh if the Republicans take the

house CPI comes in way low sure it's

possible but it's possible probable no

and without that Vic Spike we might not

actually have that full flushed out

capitulation yet so what do you have you

have a complete disaster that's detached

from fundamentals this is not a story

about Tesla fundamentally sucking for

example well that may be true and I

don't believe that it is this is a story

of a liquidity crunch when the crypto

Market collapses crypto becomes more

desirable to buy by some people who

actually think that's a good idea and so

they put less buying pressure on stocks

and they go by crypto which leads to

lower prices on stocks when certain

stocks go down like Robin Hood or

coinbase those become more attractive

than others and so there's less buying

pressure on others like Tesla when Tesla

goes down Tesla becomes more attractive

than others and more people buy Tesla

than than the others but then it all

still sinking down and then it's kind of

like wait a minute why am I buying

during a disastrous earnings week we

still don't have the election results

and CPI is coming out tomorrow and Nikki

leaks is suggesting six percent and

we've got the EPS recession and we could

see more crypto bankruptcies and I may

as well be tax loss harvesting

T that doesn't give you a lot of

confidence in buying right now with the

exception of course of buying the stocks

the psychology of money program or the

zero to millionaire real estate course

or getting into that business Hustlers

course that's a good idea because you

want to be making money at the bottom

market so you can invest now oh don't

want to say bottom but anyway

where is some potential optimism

all of these things could U-turn all

but again hope is not an investing

strategy I've said that all year long

and I've been too hopeful myself

oh well it is what it is mistakes were

made good decisions were made bad

decisions were made but so is life so

could things turn around and go very

peachy and beautiful absolutely I am

very hopeful that you will visit me

tomorrow at 5 30 a.m and we will see the

most glorious inflation numbers ever and

the end to the federal reserve's pain

and those will be corroborated in

December we'll see inflation here you

want my prediction I'll give you my

prediction just like Ben Muller imma

write it down

this is my prediction this is the first

time I feel like I I don't I don't

actually think I've predicted lower

before on the numbers I've been been

pretty bearish uh on on the actual CPI

Prints but this time I'ma Do it all

right we're gonna write down my CP live

prediction I think as I said earlier in

the video we're gonna see a 0.4 month

over month okay

then on the headline number I actually

think we're going to be at 7.7

this would be quite bullish now I don't

think it'll actually hold up into any

kind of real sustained rally because

these numbers I mean we'll see green if

we got this but this is still 4.8

percent uh that inflation is rising uh

on an annualized basis that's terrible

that's still terrible anything over that

is even more terrible

but it's going to create a little bit of

pause in the market that wait a minute

maybe this is the beginning of the end

uh of tightening and then we get the

December numbers and if in December we

need the two months which we get before

the next fed report if we could get two

months of an inflection down where

expectations are here maybe maybe the

Santa Claus rally is still possible but

short of that Sani ain't coming you're

getting a lump of coal and if you're a

short seller enjoy your wine and

champagne now because as soon as that

U-turn happens you're gonna get smoked

really fast and you're going to see

margin calls in the opposite direction

when the short sellers get smoked now I

don't want to see anybody get smoked if

you're a short seller that's okay I just

want you to be prepared to transition

fast okay because when those numbers

change the Market's going to change fast

all right

that's all good luck