Trump & Fed are "Cooked" | -93% Recession.

cooked and Donald Trump's case against

Lisa Cook might be cooked or is it?

We'll talk about both sides as well as

UBS's take that we are a 93%

or in a 93% likelihood of going into

recession. Is that truly what they

believe? Spoiler, it's not. And Donald

Trump probably isn't going to get

anywhere with Lisa Cook and we're

probably going to get 25 basis points

next week. Let's talk about it. Okay,

first thing that I want to hit on is

Lisa Cook and break this down for you.

Quick note, some of you have been asking

me for a really good bank though in the

meantime. Metkaven.com or just go to

meet Kevin.com/bank.

Love this one. meet me.com/life

for life insurance and meet

Kevin.com/weeeble.

They're doing a 2% deposit bonus right

now. Robin Hood's only doing 1% so you

get, you know, an extra percent if you

deposit transfer over there. Check out

those sponsors, Bank, Life, and Weeble.

Meet Kevin.com. All sponsors. Uh, okay.

So, right now you've got this argument

that Lisa Cook signed for two principal

residences. And what we did is we tried

to dig into this a few weeks ago to

catch you up. PTE says she applied for

two homeowner occupied mortgages in 2021

within weeks of each other. Holt says,

"We're doing our job. Nobody is above

the law and therefore we're referring

her for criminal prosecution. This is

occupancy fraud and she should be

replaced." And the reality is she did

have a primary residence mortgage here

from June 18th that indicated she would

occupy the property as a principal

residence. But the big question, and

this is the property we do not have the

mortgage documents for, is why uh just

14 days later uh on she applied for a

loan for a property in Georgia, a condo,

and on July 21st, that mortgage ended up

closing or that purchase ended up

closing, which doesn't look good if both

of those are primary residences. Now, we

don't have the mortgage documents for

that July 21st closing, but what we do

have is that the loan amount against the

property looks like it was a 10% down

loan, which you could do a 10% down loan

on a personal residence that you're

going to occupy, or on a second home.

So, all we know is it was either a

personal residence that she was going to

occupy, which would be wrong, or it was

a second home. And that's where things

left off the last time around. Though it

certainly didn't look great because

optically that second home in Georgia

has now been turned into a rental.

Though that is not against the law or

any kind of loan rules. As long as you

intend for something to be a secondary

residence or primary residence for at

least a year and then you rent it out,

no harm, no foul. That's totally fine.

And it was at least a year before we

started seeing a rental listing. So then

we get to the latest revelation that

wait a minute was

Lisa Cook upfront in suggesting that

this was actually a second home. And

this is where there's a big debate. See,

Bloomberg is reporting, thanks to what

Reuters find found out that in May, Lisa

Cook actually had a loan estimate issued

by a credit union to Cook weeks before

she ultimately purchased the home in

Georgia. And the document said that it

would be a second home. Now, this is a

loan estimate, so we have to understand

a little bit of the timing of this. So,

as usual, I broke down some of this

extra information under the data section

of the Meet Kevin app. So, if you

haven't used that yet, consider using

the Meet Kevin app. I think there are

also a couple coupons left. We have a

quantity of coupons left for the U Meet

Kevin membership. So, even though we had

an expiration last night, I think there

are two coupons left. If you want those,

go to meet Kevin.com. But make sure you

have this Meet Kevin app right here.

Okay. So, look at this. What you want to

look at here is you want to go to the

loan application process. So when you

apply for a loan after 3 days of an

application you get a loan estimate and

then 3 days before closing you get

what's called a closing disclosure. Now

this matters now as somebody who used to

be a mortgage loan originator an MLO in

English a lender we used to do these

documents. So the loan estimate could

just be one of many variations of loan

estimates. However, the final mortgage

documents are the final documents that

matter. So, I could get an estimate for

three different types of loans

theoretically. So, while a loan estimate

does suggest that Lisa Cook at one point

told this credit union that this

property was going to be a second home,

it doesn't guarantee that the loan was

actually closed as a second home. And

this is where both Bill PTE is sort of

doing the classic PTE line and he goes

now as far as saying that Dr. Cook

represents herself as an extremely

accomplished financial operator. If Cook

solicited estimates as a vacation home

and then entered into a mortgage

agreement as a primary that is extremely

concerning and evidence is further

intent to defraud. Now, that's because

PE is now playing defense because these

Reuters docs coming out are saying, you

know, Nick T is even retweeting these.

You know, Nick T is going, "Hey, here

are the time frames for her to

potentially get kicked out before this

Fed meeting coming up on the 17th. Maybe

it'll happen, maybe it won't." I'll give

you my opinion on it in just a moment.

But PTE is also arguing or sorry Nick T

rather is indicating hey this is a loan

estimate uh that indicates that she

disclosed that this was a vacation home

of course after uh pullpace commentary

which he's got a whole stream of people

are now writing so if the actual loan

documents differ from the estimate isn't

that even more damning maybe. And so

this is kind of where you're getting

like attack and counterattack. Pay goes,

"She's a fraud. She has two primary

residences." She's like, "No, bro.

Here's an estimate saying it I disclosed

there was a second hole." And he's like,

"Oh, well then why did you close it as a

primary resident? That's even more

fine." And what this all really comes

down to is the reality that there is an

actual mortgage document somewhere. We

don't have access to it for some reason.

The title reports don't give us access

to that Georgia home mortgage document.

I've got the address. I've looked it up.

I can't get it. And Bill Pulp is not

providing the actual mortgage document,

which is weird because if he was so damn

convinced that she actually appi applied

for two primary residences and closed

two primary residence loans, then why

not just show the document? But then the

same would go for Lisa Cook. Hey, if you

have your mortgage document, why not

just show it? Now, it's possible here

that maybe Lisa Cook didn't keep her

mortgage documents, but Bill PE as the

head of the FHFA should have the

documents because it's the housing

agency that would keep and store these

loan documents. And certainly, some

title companies somewhere should have

these documents, but ultimately the

title company just verifies that the

deed is present. The actual mortgage

doesn't always get provided via title.

So, that's where the FHFA should have

it. So, Bill P should have it. And this

then raises the question, is B bill Pate

right? And is Lisa Cook a fraud who got

a loan estimate as a vacation rental?

Then I guess her and her lender turned

around and said, you know what, let's

just defraud everyone and call it a

primary because then then since it was

disclosed, it would take both Lisa Cook

and the lender agreeing that she was

changing her mind, right? It's a little

bit of a higher standard. It could

happen. Or maybe the lender made a

mistake. That's possible, too. Again,

either both of them are frauds, the

lender and Lisa Cook, or a mistake was

made, or

this was a second home. And this all

gets cleared up when we actually get the

mortgage documents. And so, until we

actually get the mortgage documents, I

personally think you've got a court here

that's going to say, look, we have at

least enough at this point to argue that

Lisa Cook has a case. she she has is

going to be able to get the opportunity

to provide the actual mortgage documents

in some form of discovery and that means

she stays at least for the time being.

Now why does that matter? It matters

because she's a voting member, right?

These are your voting members and this

is how it works. Each FOMC votes vote

there are 12 voting members. Seven

members of the board of governors, the

president of the New York Fed and four

of the remaining 11 reserve bank

members. Now, Cougler resigned in August

to go back to teaching at Georgetown.

Remember, Georgetown was the place where

like Ivanka Trump went and Tiffany Trump

went and Eric Trump went. Like, a lot of

Trumps have gone there. And so,

apparently Georgetown made Cougler, who

was a voting member, a really good offer

to go back to Georgetown. And apparently

now she's back at Georgetown. Yet, she

has no classes scheduled at Georgetown.

just happened to disappear as a voting

number, leaving now people who are

voting that Powell doesn't like, like

Powell and Cook who are aligned that we

should go slower on rate cuts. And he's

not attacking people like Waller or

Bowman because both of them want rate

cuts and Waller and Bowman are basically

both angling for the Fed chair jobs. So

they're really aligning with Trump like,

"Yeah, let's let's cut a lot." You know,

Waller's going out going we need to cut

150 basis points. The labor market is

slowing too much, you know. So when you

look at the list, they're basically just

going down the list and it's sort of one

of those like give me the man and I'll

find the crime situations. And that's

where people are like Bill PT like you

should have the records. Like stop

giving us half information and then

trying to argue that you know Lisa Cook

is a crook when you have the record and

you could just be like here's the

mortgage document. Like you would just

you you would win you like people

wouldn't be calling for you to resign in

that case. Now, of course, Lisa Cook

should also have the record, but

remember, a lot of borrowers don't

actually keep all these documents. They

sign them, they close, they get their

money, and then they throw them away.

And I'm trying to defend Lisa Cook, just

trying to provide that second

perspective. Now, do understand as well

that at the same time as this is

happening, a lot of people recognize and

side with Donald Trump because they want

interest rates lower. Car loans, uh,

credit card loans, things are really

expensive right now. And so, it makes

sense why people want rates lower. And

this is why a lot of people are

concerned that, you know, hey, are we

walking into a recession? And this is

where UBS's recession forecast comes up.

Now, quick note, also just to like close

this topic, ProPublica is also doing

investigations into people on Trump's

team, and they're finding that uh you

know, even though these aren't Fed rate

cut voting members, people like the

labor secretary apparently entered into

two primary residents mortgages in quick

succession. Uh, of course they're

responding saying that this is just a

left-wing dark money hit piece that's

trying to smear Donald Trump. Uh, and

that Lisa Cook is corrupt. They're now

calling her unlike Lisa Corrupt Cook who

blatantly and intentionally committed

mortgage fraud. Secretary Duffy,

Administrator Zeldon, and Secretary

Darmer are uh, you know, own multiple

residences, but they've followed the

law.

You can see this is just all like

turning into political mudslinging.

There are a lot of people who are now

slinging around. In addition to this

sort of political mudslinging, this idea

about a 93% probability of going into a

recession. And this is because UBS found

that between May and July, the hard data

in the economy indicated that we are

going into a recession. Now, there are a

couple problems with this. Between May

and July, we had the post tariff effects

that led, you know, or or the result of

a lot of people building up inventory

and then less purchasing activity, which

makes the economy look weaker. Now, a

lot of that is leveling off and

normalizing. And if you actually look at

the Atlanta Fed real GDP now estimates

for the third quarter starting here in

September, we're actually showing 3.1%

growth actually starting in August. So,

August, September, what we have so far.

The data suggests we're actually doing

really well on GDP. Now, it's possible

that like half of this is being made up

by artificial intelligence, which

obviously we've got to really evaluate

like, hey, how much of AI is really like

a bubble? You know, AI, you have to

remember, is really pattern recognition.

And I'm it's so incredible because, you

know, we're running Blackwell chips now

for House Hack because we've got, you

know, real estate AI that we're

building. And and what we're finding is

it's a game of data. And so, you know,

if we have a data set of 50,000, I'm

looking at this going, I want to get

this data set to 300,000 or 500,000. You

know, I want to 10x this data set

because MLS ultimately are a game of

pattern recognition. The more you

deviate from the actual pattern that you

showed the AI and trained it on, the

more you get hallucinations. So, how do

you reduce hallucinations? You train on

more pattern sets. It's really simple.

Which then actually makes you scratch

your head and go, "Wait a minute. If

this is just like computers recognizing

patterns, is it really artificial

intelligence at all?

Or is it just plagiarizing patterns?"

Which is exactly what got an OpenAI

researcher killed. And if you haven't

yet seen my video yet on the Sam Oldman

and Tucker Carlson disaster, highly

encourage you watch that. The biggest

takeaway out of that video, by the way,

to me is not that Sam Oldman is maybe,

don't sue me or kill me, bro, a

murderer. It's that uh MLS are really

just pattern recognizers, right? Anyway,

like, so we're it's incredible. we're

running like my AI team is telling me

that you know we're we have now like 4x

the speed of our compute and we're using

20 uh like 20% of the power that we were

using before by upgrading to these

latest Blackwell chips and it's insane.

Uh I think I got that right. Double

check my memory on that but uh it's

insane like these these Nvidia chips are

really good. You know, I joke that

Nvidia chips are like what is in the bag

and Super Microcomputer, a company that

makes the server racks, they make the

bag that people then can hold. And so

like, you know, I I always worry that

like companies like, you know,

Cororeweave or even INE, which I'm

bullish on short term, we're just

building up like these massive bags and

eventually these chips will be worth

less. But I don't know, man. right now

this is a debtfueled bubble and these

chips are actually really good. So it's

kind of like ah like all right so like

maybe it's a bubble getting extended by

debt but it's getting extended by debt

and it fueling into GDP and so for right

now like this is fine and so it's no

surprise that when you actually look at

what UBS tells us they actually base

their recession probability at just 41%.

now. Well, that is like double.

Actually, I think they're 50/50. That

was the credit market. Credit markets uh

indicate a 41% chance. They're at about

a 50/50 chance of a recession. Uh and

and so that's because they're looking at

that hard data and saying, "Okay, but

that was summer data, post liberation

tariff, uh liberation date data, and you

know, they're looking at the inverted

yield curve, which yes, is one of the

most uh telltale signs of a recession,

but really only once you skyrocket past

one." So I think we're what we're really

seeing is we're kind of on in an economy

of like borrowed time is the way I like

to look at it, which is fine because you

can make plenty of money in this. I mean

look at for example Bitcoin. Bitcoin

regularly has these downtrend

consolidations and then it always breaks

out to new highs after that. We are

literally breaking out right now and and

we could see 130 to 150 5,000 Bitcoin

very very soon. Uh and like I don't

think this debt fueled bubble is really

going to slow down anytime soon. Now

there there are other plays that make a

lot of money in this like either

slowdown or recessionary direction and

uh of the top 10 stocks to buy that I'm

bringing to course members in the alpha

report which you get with the meet Kevin

membership uh right now three of them

and probably that's going to be all of

them but three of them are like a huge

beneficiaries if rates either slow down

like slowly come down or massively get

cut like these companies win big and so

far they've already been doing really

well. Like one of them was up, you know,

20% uh Thursday or Friday. The other one

was up like 4 to 12% on Friday. Can't

remember exactly, but these were doing

really well. I do caution against Open

Door. I think Open Doors, you know,

peaked a little bit now that we've got

the CEO placed and now shop the Shopify

exec is going to have to basically prove

that he can turn around this Open Door

model. Maybe if you want, leave me a

comment. I'll make a whole breakdown as

to like what Open Door should do. As

somebody with real estate and financial

background, I feel like it could give

some good insight here, but I don't know

if anybody cares, but there's a lot that

Open Door could do. But really, when you

look at this 93% chance of recession, I

think it's a really good click- baity

headline, but the reality is we we are,

yes, on borrowed time, but we're not yet

like so high in shock territory that we

really need to be nervous. Yes, we're in

shock territory. shock territory starts

at 50, but the soft landing of this of

the mid90s got us to 60 and we never had

a recession. So, we're just in like the

early innings. Uh, and this could this

could keep going for a while. This sort

of like Nike swoosh recovery. It's it's

it's too it is too early to call an end.

The end will come, but not yet. Uh, so

this has been coming down. It's been

coming down because we now anticipate a

100% chance of a 25 BP cut. only a 4%

chance of a 100 basis or 50 basis point

cut on September 17th. Obviously, I'll

be covering that in detail. Uh and uh a

lot of this is because, you know,

markets, bond markets are like, "All

right, cool. Yeah, we're going to get a

supportive Fed now." Now, fortune uh has

been talking about mounting warning

signs. However, there are a lot of

metrics that turn negative. This is per

UBS that indicates we are seeing

softness that is a mile wide but an inch

deep. So basically nothing is showing a

rapid unraveling. It's rather a soggy

soft weak but not collapsing environment

that we're seeing. Fine. And that's why

they they you know are only indicating

there it is an aggregate recession

probability of 52%. And that's for July.

That's probably down now. Now Jamie

Diamond is also talking about the

potential for a recession. But he also

says and admits like hey this is either

a recession or a slowdown. We're we're

not entirely sure. We're just going to

kind of like assume that uh we're going

to put the bank in the best position we

possibly can and just keep trucking

along, which I feel like is what

everybody should be doing. I'm going to

look really quick. Yeah, it looks like

we got two uh me Kevin membership

coupons left. I I I tried to time that

where they would align with the

expiration 1159. I'll probably just

expire it. But anyway, uh, shout out to

those of you who joined. Jo, John,

Elias, Ematus, Juan, Sergio, Brandon,

Hud, Eddie, Joey, Tom, Derek, Michael,

Robert, Natalia,

that aligns with roughly one and 10.

Shout out to the ladies out there. Uh

but yeah, broadly I don't think that I

mean this week just sort of in an

economic recap this week we did get low

PPI but again that was probably because

of a slowdown in in you know wholesale

trade services which makes sense. Uh and

then we did get CPI that was basically a

long expectations and a slight rise in

claims but none of this is like

you know indicative of like falling off

a cliff. In fact, in my alpha report, I

said that I like the data we got this

week is modestly bullish on the cues.

It's not like euphorically bullish, but

modestly bullish. And I mean, look at

what we did this week. We modestly rose

day after day after day after day. Like,

if you zoom out and average out what we

saw this week, it was basically straight

up. So, modestly bullish wins again. And

I think this continues. Uh I'm also very

like excited to see what's happening at

Tesla. I think a lot of this is because

the comp plan is getting set up for Elon

and you know robo taxi slowly expanding.

Uh you know I think we're getting to

these levels where like hey it's it

makes sense to maybe you know especially

once we get to 414 start thinking about

tightening some limits because

valuations are high but uh you know I

always like trailing stop limits because

they protect you in the event you do

roll into a recession which you know

we'd have to get some crazy data. Uh but

don't make them too tight to where

you're getting stopped out on normal

fluctuations. But I think he's still got

another 20 bucks to go here before you

got to worry about a line.

And beyond that, like we know what we're

going to get to the Fed meeting. At the

Fed meeting, if you think about it,

we're going to get 25. Big deal. Uh and

then on top of that, I mean, we'll be

breaking down all the catalysts and and

you know, my take on how to play them

for trades. Obviously, I can't guarantee

that in the Meet Kevin membership. Um

but but I can't guarantee the result,

but I I think we do a really good job. I

think overall like our win rate is is is

very high. Uh and so I I hope you can

make lots of money. But uh you know we

are going to get retail sales this week.

We'll get import export prices. So we'll

be setting up strategies for for trading

around this in the meet Kevin

membership. Remember you buy you get

lifetime access. Uh we've got uh initial

claims. Uh they're expected to come down

from 263 to 240 which would be good

because we did get uh we did get a pop

in in uh initial claims this week. Uh

and you know, you don't really want to

see that continue because it is

recessionary. So then you've got uh

although it's late recessionary, right?

Like once claims really pop off, you're

deep in the recession.

S&P S&P PMI is on the 23rd. Big deal.

We'll get capital goods. We'll get PCES

Jolts on the 30th. Big deal. Probably

get PCE on the 26th. Yep. There's PC on

the 26th. big deal, honestly. Like, none

of that's going to matter. Uh, and then

we've got Halloween.

It's coming fast here. Uh, I think the

only way you're going to get TLT over

100 at this point, because it'll

probably stabilize around 90 where it is

now. I think the only way you end up

getting TLT over 100 is if you get the

jobs report at the beginning of October

just crashing, like going negative. Then

we'll have TLT over 100 and and then

then you know well we'll talk about

Halloween at that point what we're gonna

dress up as. But uh ADP unemployment

chains we don't have a survey yet that

comes out on October 1st. Man that's

crazy. It's almost October. I feel like

this year is just like evaporated on me

frankly. Uh then uh you've got payrolls.

Yeah. No estimate yet on October 3rd.

And uh I mean those are going to be the

clutch ones. you don't actually have the

Fed. Uh, and then you've got CPI on the

15th. You don't have the Fed in October.

So, it's all going to be like that first

and third for jobs. Uh, so, you know,

that's that's what we're going to be

looking at uh in, you know, post Fed

here. And again, like I said, between

now and and the beginning of October,

the 1st and the 3rd, I don't see really

big negative catalysts. It's not like

we've got bigger earnings to worry

about. It's not like we've got, you

know, a big jobs report to worry about.

We already got all that bad news. So,

it's chill. And usually when it's chill,

we just optimistically move up. And I

think that's what you're seeing with

with Bitcoin. By the way, all of these

lines are drawn on on Weeble. And that's

why I do think it's cool that they're

doing this 2% deposit bonus right now.

Remember to sign up at meetke.com/weble.

Get your life insurance in as little as

5 minutes at meetke.com/life.

And then use that banking uh try check

them out. Check out that banking

provider. Meet Kevin.combank.

Uh and if you want $30, like they give

you $30 off on the Metagasses uh and

they give me $30, too. Meet Kevin.com/

Meta. And uh these are all paid

partnerships obviously. But uh uh

finally, like I got like this is not

like anything special like Meta didn't

reach out. This is just sort of the

generic one that pops up. But I have to

say, I've got I've got two functioning

Meta glasses right now. I love these

with my kids. Absolutely freaking love

these. In fact, have you seen the latest

uh Tesla uh light sync? Dude, the Tesla

light sync is so cool in the car. Uh I'm

so excited about this. I'm going to

share this uh on screen. I'll airdrop

this. But uh basically the the light

sync is you could play music and it'll

take the album art and it'll play that

uh and sync it with the sort of light

strip in the Cybert truck or you know

whatever other Tesla you might have uh

that has this. And you know I what I

like to do is I put the glasses on and

then I document people's reactions to

what's going on with the glasses. And I

think it's great. So, I'll show you uh

Lauren's reaction here is I uh it she

played her own Taylor Swift song because

you know Swifties obviously over here

and um you'll get to uh see this again

filmed with the glasses which I think is

really fun.

>> Rainbow colored album art. So, I played

him this

>> so cool.

>> Oh, that's so cool.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this. We'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.