wtf ross... Tesla & TSLA Stock.

[Music]

well my boy Ross Gerber is back at it

again making headlines last time it was

for wanting to challenge the Tesla board

of directors and run for a seat on the

board at Tesla this time around it's ooh

not being spun as the best news that

Ross Gerber has gotten himself into Ross

Gerber visited

if only you knew Dan Oda danodad is a

dude who's run this technology company a

legacy style technology company that's

created software that has been used by

the likes of the government and in Adas

software and essentially runs a company

that provides software that competes to

some extent with Tesla's full

self-driving him Daniel Dodd has made it

his mission to be critical of FSD and

Elon Musk in Tesla even though allegedly

he owns an original Tesla Roadster

though it's worth noting the original

Tesla Roadster which I also once owned

doesn't have any FSD it's just a dressed

up Lotus Elise with a battery bag in it

so what do we have with Dano Dodd and

Ross Gerber and did we just get another

price uh a downgrade

from another Wall Street Bank a yes in

fact we'll talk about both Morgan

Stanley's downgrade for Tesla and

Goldman Sachs downgrade for Tesla in

just a moment

but first

ah we have to look at something that

unfortunately is

not so great and now I'm going to give

my commentary on this and my suspicions

on this I live approximately 40 minutes

away from where this incident occurred

so when I feel better I will visit this

uh area and conduct my own sort of

research and investigation into this uh

but I will tell you upon first viewing

this clip I was uh very disappointed uh

in uh in

um well I'll I'll give you my commentary

after I play it

um so let's uh go ahead and play this

clip which is unfortunate because

I want to say that I truly believe in my

heart Ross Gerber went to visit Dan or

Dodd to show Dan odaw the light the show

danodad how Greatful self-driving has

become and how far it's gone

the problem is and this is what happens

when you enter the the uh the pig pen so

to speak you know when when they say

what's the saying when you wrestle with

pigs you get muddy or you get poop all

over yourself

this isn't to say that anybody's vague

particularly it's just to say when you

wrestle with haters you know you say one

thing wrong and 99 things correctly

oh people will only Elevate the one

thing that was wrong

and Ross Gerber had a sit-down interview

with this gentleman I think people

should listen to it he spent an hour

driving on FSD in Santa Barbara in

almost a perfect manner with the

exception of this one clip and this one

clip is the only thing the internet

cares about of course it has because

that's how the internet works

uh but anyway anybody who actually uses

FSD

knows whole well that FSD is not perfect

you have to pay attention especially at

those Edge case scenarios if you are a

Tesla owner you know where those edge

cases are I get onto certain highways

I'm like ah the car makes me a little

uncomfortable here I take over I get to

certain intersections I'm like oh I'm

going to take over in these areas the

more people feel uncomfortable in those

areas though ironically the less the car

is able to train itself in those areas

but then again people don't want to

actually crash right so anyway I'm going

to show a clip which doesn't look very

good there is context missing though

substantial context missing from this

clip when you see it uh and I think it's

worth actually seeing another clip

before this just to sort of a preview

and and my response to uh Omar on uh

Twitter he's always posting uh excellent

commentary

on uh on Tesla and uh that was right

here he says yesterday I had to take

over to prevent my Tesla from running a

red light due to a weirdly angled

traffic light it responded to the wrong

light basically over here on the right

the light turns green and the car starts

moving uh for uh Omar's interaction

there it is right here but he's actually

got uh a red there it is this one versus

this one uh anyway I commented right

here

I said humans make this mistake daily

ever sit in a left turn

excuse me

ever sit in a left turn and see the

right slash straight Lanes hit the gas

when the left turns green

if you're a driver you know that feeling

you've probably done it yourself because

humans do that all the time and so what

I wrote is

FSD will eventually not make that

mistake but humans will always make that

mistake that's why full self-driving is

seen as at least two and a half if not

ten times as safe as a human driver

without any Adas so

with that said and with the prefaces out

of the way uh and yes you can't remove

all of your biases everybody knows that

everybody knows I'm a Tesla investor uh

Tesla's uh you know it's it's in my fund

it's exposed personally in all of that

right but I always like to look at

things objectively and I have to say

when I first watched this video I was

very disappointed but I'll show some

context afterwards so let's go ahead and

start well we're not really starting

anymore but let's get into the actual

clippity doodly here

no she's not a real deadhead she's never

seen the Dead all right here we go we're

gonna get killed by this guy

it's on FSD now in real life I would not

wait for this all right I disengaged

yeah

Ross took over that it hesitated then it

decided to go buy it and then it was

like no

this is a problem

but um

oh

there we go that was you breaking I

break

uh I wasn't gonna wait and find out

because I saw the two cars going at each

other so I wasn't gonna test that one

okay so that was obviously not a very

good look now we can break this down

right here there's been a lot of

speculation around this before Oh my

gosh I'm sorry before we break this down

you need to see context the context that

was very very important that is highly

missing from this video highly missing

for this video and you should not go a

second further without this context

is this

look at where the stop sign is actually

positioned the stop sign is actually

positioned about 20 feet at least a car

length if not 25 feet

from the stop line

the problem with this and I will tell

you in these old neighborhoods

especially in Santa Barbara this is a

problem

the problem with this is I'm going to

use this star to simulate

uh a driver okay uh coming from the

other side a normal driver

a normal driver sees nobody at the stop

line which is right here right and what

does a normal driver do

they cut that line

everyone cuts the freaking line on a

left turn that's humans everybody does

that I'm not making excuses just saying

that's what humans do

you're supposed to drive out and then

make your left but people don't do that

okay people don't do this because it

takes more effort they're just going to

eat

okay so

understanding that about humans is very

important one two understanding the

distance of this stop sign from the

actual stop line very important

next

what else is very important to

understand

after

uh

uh we pass this this vehicle here uh

that uh Ross dodged after we passed this

vehicle you could see Ross takeover

and then he adjusts the wheel right here

by scrolling up this is a way of telling

the car to go faster right and Ross

doesn't live in this area so he doesn't

know about this stop sign coming up Dan

probably does there you go you can see

autopilot getting engaged and uh the car

set it looks like it's set to a little

bit faster than where we're going now

yep yep yep yep in fact if you look very

closely right here you can see the 38

then you'll see Ross's thumb roll up

pushes it to 40. the number on the right

of the actual speed limit is or the

speed the car is going is the top speed

you're trying to set the car at so you

can see it got set to 40. he let's go

that leads the car to accelerate

what frustrated me is that the car

should not be accelerating here this was

a problem for Tesla I did not like this

when I saw it even before the stop sign

I looked at this and I said no no no no

no the car should not be accelerating

here the car does this it happens

sometimes and I admit that as an FSD

driver I am acutely aware of that and I

am acutely aware that in Curves in turns

Tesla will often turn late in certain

areas now don't take that out of context

it will not always turn late often in

certain areas it will just repeatedly

make the same mistake right and it gets

better and better and better I'll give

you an example there's a lemon Factory

and then a railroad track and then a

sharp turn the recommended speed limit

for that turn is 30 miles an hour

three years ago my car would take that

at 55 and then not until after the turn

and it was like basically out of its

Lane realize it screwed up

today it slows to about 42 doesn't leave

the lane anymore that's pretty much more

clear that's a lot closer to a human

driver I'd probably take that turn in

about 38. so it's still a little on edge

but it's gotten substantially better so

if 38 is ideal it used to do 50 and now

it's at 42. it's getting better

but if this stuff takes time right

obviously it takes time but I will say

when I first watched this video I

cringed because I'm like no the car

should not be accelerating here and this

is not in my opinion and I don't know

but there are a lot of people

speculating on the internet that are

saying oh well Ross's foot is on the gas

pedal uh and they're taking screenshots

of Ross's foot or whatever

I don't believe that uh I believe that

not to say that he's accelerating uh I

believe that to say that a lot of FSD

drivers leave their foot where the car

is acting so if the car is driving you

hover your foot over the gas the reason

people do that is a lot of people put

their feet just flat on the floor but

that's not in my opinion as deal because

it actually slows your reaction speed to

get to the break I mean just imagine it

for a second wheel if your foot's

hovering over the gas it's a lot easier

for you to step on the brake and move

over because you don't have to lift your

foot and then hit the brake you just

move over and step right it's like it's

one motion as opposed to two motions

well think about it a stomp is like a

lift and a step whereas the the move

over and break is kind of like one Fell

Swoop right so a lot of FSD drivers

actually do hover their feet over

whatever the action of the vehicle is or

is supposed to be at that time so like

if I'm coming up to or red light I take

my foot off the gas I hover it over the

brake so that way if the car were to

screw up or whatever I break

the point you're still paying attention

to some extent right uh it takes the

whole point of FSD at least at this

point in my opinion with how few

disengagement it has now disengagements

it has now the whole point is to take

some a lot of that stress off of driving

and really to be an assistant to be a

partner uh to your driving eventually

it'll just completely take over uh and

to many regards it already has

but anyway then uh so I don't I don't

think Ross is hitting the gas here this

is the car accelerating so you see this

right here going from 33 and up this is

the car accelerating

now

Ross actually and this in my opinion is

why Ross

is not accelerating is he feels the car

is going fast he feels the car going

fast here he knows he's coming up on a

stop sign and the car is accelerating

watch Ross scroll down on this wheel

you're actually going to see that 40 the

limit for the car go down to about 38.37

there's the scroll down takes it he

actually takes it down to about 35.

now we see the stop side and you'll see

Ross grabbed the wheel

a little more firmly there with his

right hand where whereas previously he

wasn't holding now he's like uh oh I

might have to take over I'm gonna hold

the wheel here

keep in mind there's the stop line about

25 feet after the stop sign

now remember what I said about when

people turn they cut that line I promise

you this car is cutting that line at

least from what I see

that car is positioned almost perfectly

to cut right over that s and the T of

this now it's hard to tell perfectly but

that car is not expecting a car to be at

the stop line if if Ross were at that

stop line

that car uh would have come out straight

much more than it did look at the gap

between this vehicle and this vehicle

these vehicles see where this car

stopped on the other side right see the

car on the far side stopped right

these cars should have virtually no gap

between them

there is there's almost enough of a gap

between those cars that you could fit a

third car in between those two left

turning cars

and to picture that for a moment on a

narrow intersection like this there

should be no Gap

because everybody should be taking the

turn appropriately

let me draw that for you really quickly

so if I draw the intersection like this

oh my gosh this reminds me of police

explorer days

um if we're gonna go from uh this Lane

and there's assuming there's a car at

the stop sign we actually make the

correct bow let's use Aura purple here

we should be having some kind of turn

like this

and then you should be able to have

another car

at the same time

do some kind of turn like this right

there shouldn't be much of a gap uh

between those two vehicles right here

this shouldn't be much of a gap but

because that white SUV took more of a

this approach and then you kind of see

them like course correct here because

they see Ross come up you actually get

this

this look look at this they turned more

and then they kind of straighten early

and actually turn their wheels to the

right see Wheels turned left turn their

wheels to the to the right a little bit

to avoid Ross because they were cutting

them off

worth noting now am I oh oh sorry I uh

was supposed to switch back here yeah

yeah look look at the wheels turn here

with the wheels are ready to cut the the

line off

and then you could see the car's Wheels

turn somewhat to the right and

straightened out there

so is this

an excuse for FSD no FSD screwed up it

went to that stop sign too fast

absolutely a screw-up it should not have

approached the stop sign that quickly

absolutely not I can't forgive what the

FSD did there even though that stop line

is 25 feet behind that stop sign that

was a mistake the car went too fast I

believe it would have stopped but I

would have taken over as well so fair

takeover the car was going too fast Ross

realized it as well that's why he

scrolled the wheel back and slowed down

but unfortunately the Optics of this the

Optics of that clip do not show you all

of the context now we need to get into

Morgan Stanley we need to get into the

Goldman Sachs uh um

uh downgrades but but first

uh It's Quickly worth looking at some of

the drama Ross says I will ask you

nicely once to remove and discontinue

false advertising that includes my image

and likeness without my permission

thanks real Dano Dodd Daniel Dodge

should have gotten a release signed by

Ross before uh uh

before putting this out there but uh

anyway so um Dano Dodd replies then what

will you do ask me not nicely or will

you demand a cage match

anyway Daniel Dot's going off on Twitter

uh he's you know screaming this video

confirms Tesla full self-driving runs a

stop sign your quick reaction saved us

remember the problem with the stop sign

is the stop line is not visible in the

video uh and so it's a great opportunity

for everybody to sort of bag on on Tesla

here uh and it's unfortunately for Ross

making the mainstream news uh I think

the Daily Mail was covering this uh with

FSD uh and and some other mainstream

agencies news agencies were

uh blaming this this you know FSD

failure or whatever so expect more drama

about this uh again uh with context

I think it's a little bit more

understanding but I personally think the

card which is going too fast uh that's

my take so

um so what else do we have here uh Steve

Steve no no like and then I want to get

into this this commentary here

specifically about the the downgrades

but no Steve of course you're going to

course correct slightly into the right

but the point is

they they would have it's not like they

swerve to the right you know they they

were cutting off that stops I don't

think there's a question they didn't see

a vehicle there so of course they didn't

leave enough room that SUV I'm not

saying the SUVs at fault here I'm just

saying it was a contributor to why the

video looked the way it did uh that's it

uh the Tesla does not acknowledge where

the stop sign is and you have to know

that about the software for example say

somebody here says when Tesla passed the

stop sign uh stop sign ahead it should

have slowed down I agree with you I

don't actually think it it fully pays

attention to the signs as much as it

should just like it doesn't pay

attention to the recommended speed in a

turn slides

uh uh at least I don't think it does

not my experience

um so I agree with you but Teslas are

looking for the Stop line and that's

that's probably a problem and and I

agree with you it was going too fast

there so don't get me wrong I agree with

you I agree with you that Tesla is going

too fast and then I want to make that

clear now let's get into some of these

downgrades

so uh last week we had a Morgan Stanley

downgrade and uh going into today we are

getting a uh Goldman Sachs downgrade

let's start with Goldman Sachs

g-sax

g-sax right here is inviting you they're

not but I'm pretending they are to check

out the

beautiful sexy courses on building your

wealth link down below with an

expiration of the sexy coupon code on

Friday prices will be going up because

I'm releasing more lectures this weekend

and so we'll have a big coupon

exploration again my goal is always to

just continue rewarding uh the uh the

existing course members

all right so what do we have here

Tesla downgrade to neutral with stock

now better reflecting on positive

long-term View

so usually what happens is these

analysts

frequently I shouldn't maybe say usually

but frequently the stock goes up

everybody upgrades the stock the stock

starts ticking down they all downgrade

to neutral

stock goes down longer they all go

bearish it seems like they follow price

action I don't know if it's the chicken

or the egg but let's look at what

they're saying because it actually isn't

that bearish we think the market is now

giving the stock more credit for longer

term opportunities

uh we think there has been less price

discounting from Tesla than investors

feared for Q2

and vehicle inventory seem to be falling

faster in Q2 than expected in fact I do

want to say my Tesla referral code

when you go to uh

metcaven.com Tesla it's jumped like 20

it was like it was like 98 oh more than

that it was like 98 and now it's at 127

Tesla referrals so I think I made like

30 Tesla referrals in the last

I don't know 30 days it's kind of nuts I

could buy some more Tesla short shorts

or you could get like some Tesla models

which check this out

speaking of model I have not shown this

off yet look what came in the mail I

didn't pay for this uh I I would I bet

this was expensive but um

this was given to me by the person who

sold me my plane and uh it's a really

cool gift it is a uh custom uh model of

the exact plane and the exact I can't

really get my camera to focus on it

exact plane and exact paint scheme of my

plane how cool is that

it's even got my future new tail number

on it

69 for PP

hey

cool I love this thing my kids are like

Daddy let me play with it I'm like no

this is my toy plane

mostly because Max

tangent quick tangent Max takes the

planes and he's like look daddy

holy no uh

anyway

okay so where were we uh no we still

expect pricing to decline in the second

half of 2023 is supply and demand come

into more of a balance uh it says

Goldman Sachs but we are seeing more of

an inventory cell through in Q2 and less

pricing pain than we expected is uh what

Goldman is suggesting here

uh they do suggest that the charging

Network and FSD will be limited

near-term contributors to earnings per

share but more long-term beneficiaries

uh for the stock and they suggest that

Tesla is well positioned for long-term

growth I always think it's crazy that

when you have these these companies

these analysts are like oh this is a

company that's that's positioned for

long-term growth

and then they downgrade the stock

it's crazy uh anyway uh third generation

platform oh right these are the next

catalysts right so they touch on uh gen

3 your your uh 50 vehicle cost reduction

trying to get to that 25 000 car the

Cyber truck oh my gosh have you seen the

Cyber truck uh videos that have been

circulating if you haven't seen the

Cyber truck videos you're about to see

the Cyber truck videos because

they're showing the Cyber truck with the

freaking rear wheel rotating and I'm

like I thought that was gonna be

clickbait not only moves like 10 but

this is like straight up

warthog

if anybody played Halo and I'm talking

all the original I'm talking OG okay I'm

like Halo one Combat Evolved baby the

enemy has captured Captain keys and

they're holding him important enemy girl

whatever anyway the warthog's wheels

turn in the back to help you make a turn

and uh this was remarkable to me just

watch the back wheel turn slightly as

they make this tight turn it's like oh

my gosh see the back wheels turning out

as the front wheel is turning right to

tighten the turn radius

[Laughter]

it's amazing

amazing so uh anyway back to where we

were uh Goldman Sachs EPS for this next

cycle not good it's only a 275. the

market has Tesla at 350 right now uh and

then you get to about roughly in line so

these are in line this is very low very

very low

and they acknowledge that I mean they

well they say slightly below I'm like uh

no like 15 to 20 below

it's not slightly in my opinion but

whatever they believe that Q2 deliveries

are doing well tracking uh for 445 to

450 uh the Tesla cars are awesome they

have efficiency uh this this opening the

charging network is just gonna actually

help Tesla not only expand the pie of

charging Revenue but create more

charging stations

they did say that part of the reason for

their downgrade

sorry uh was that

AMD and Nvidia are now trading for 42

and 55 times

uh the next 12 months earnings and

Tesla's sitting at 93 times

I think if you use the correct EPS it's

not that bad but yes all of these

companies have gotten significantly more

expensive they were all under a 1.5 Peg

when I bought the crap out of them at

the end of last year

now they're all above a two Peg again

Peg is PE divided by growth anyway

expected growth so what about Morgan

Stanley well Morgan Stanley's got a

piece too but Morgan Stanley's always

got a piece

um is that inappropriate anyway uh so I

just need to find it oh oopsies I put it

on my other iPad I have it I'll have it

in just one second

so oh here we go so the Morgan Stanley

uh downgrade was a last week end of last

week it's right here

so they have a price target of 250

they are moving to an equal weight their

bulk case is actually 450. 450 on the

bull case 90 bucks for the bear case

uh so then we have I did not see this

111 percent year-to-date rally coming it

says Morgan Stanley uh while the team

has defended Tesla as an overweight

rating they didn't expect this

we are not trying to call the end of the

Tesla rally uh

uh so in other words they're just trying

to say like we're not trying to be the

Bears here okay uh they actually call it

a must-owned stock in any EV portfolio

quite frankly I think it should be a

must-stone stock in any portfolio let me

be clear for The Regulators watching I

respect you this is not personalized

Financial advice this is this is bad

Market commentary anyway

um some investors may feel inclined to

play the positive momentum we believe

the stock upside from here must come uh

despite our view of continued downside

SKU uh uh basically they're saying look

you've got

you've got some near-term technical

risks for the stock probably

contributing to their their uh

downgrade but longer term uh in their

bullish scenario it's it's you have to

you have to own it uh and of course they

talk about uh you know TBD how the

autonomous section of AI uh for Tesla

FSD will play out

but take a look at this this I thought

was interesting

despite the recent rally we expect

material negative revisions for Tesla

consensus earnings forecast and continue

to expect a long-term trend of price

decreases and average price declines at

Tesla driven by intensifying competition

with Chinese EV players and slowing

Consumer Auto purchases

so Goldman said this as well

and what does Kevin say

this isn't to say that Kevin knows

everything I definitely don't I'm just

saying

I think

Tesla will go free cash flow negative

and might have to raise money okay

I've said it before I'll say it again it

doesn't make me a bear but I do think

there's a there's a risk that there will

be an offering uh of either shares

convertibles uh some new debt financing

they've got way too many gigafactories

building at the same time right now with

even more announcements coming uh I I

you know you got the expansion of Nevada

Northeast Mexico Berlin Texas it's

um

it's going to be very expensive anyway

so they're questioning uh have we gone

through

the the worst of it for Tesla do we

still have some potential headwinds I

think we absolutely have headwinds I

actually think though that those are the

remaining headwinds so I I want to be

clear

if if Tesla is uh let's say um

all right you ready for this

um let's say over here this is like a a

nasty swampy nasty mosquito-filled Marsh

okay and uh and the Beautiful the

beautiful Heavenly maiden and the sexy

valley is over here this way in that

direction over there you know we're

probably we're probably like right there

and uh and there's still a bog monster

right here at the bog monster is like

come into my pit uh

so in other words you still have to get

through this this short-term negativity

uh which could be what I just said an

offering negative free cash flow a

margin decline uh these are all short

term we know that Tesla is going to

survive this

obviously we highly expect that like we

know that Tesla will make it here past

the bog monster we know Tesla's going to

make it there we just don't know what

that this this transition is like is it

like this is it like we're gonna skip

over the bog monster we're gonna go

through the bog monster or we're gonna

get bogged and then come back who knows

uh but but once once we get through that

you know the light's already there it's

just a matter of getting through that my

take

stay away from the bog monster

don't yell at me if there's a short-term

correction

but of course if it rallies it was

completely am I doing

just like uh when we convinced Elon to

advertise and started the longest Tesla

rally ever

patting myself on the back I did that

I'm taking all credit for it screw you

Okay so uh the rise of Chinese ovms uh

look China's entire economy is slowing

down so you know I do think there's a

risk factor in China uh there there

there's there's a real risk in China and

Tesla does sell a lot of vehicles in

China uh although uh we know that the

Giga Shanghai is is a big export Market

it'd still be nice to sell them locally

uh it'll it'll keep margins propped up

and so you do have some risks over here

uh okay cool uh so what else we have

here Tesla has been losing share in

China since the peak of 2020. I I I I I

I oh losing share to who wait I'm sorry

we have to fix the grammar losing share

to

whom uh and that would actually be

yd

remember folks okay if the answer is to

him then it's whom if it is to he then

it is who sorry uh anyway yeah I mean

byd is is obviously your killer over

there mostly because the hybrids are

incredibly affordable uh byd's pure EV

sales were declining relative to Tesla

and q1 but their hybrids are just so

affordable and with the crushed economy

over there it it for some people just

doesn't make the sense to make that leap

to Pure EV right now

we think that Tesla might have been

caught up in the Ava AI multiple premium

given the recent wave of Interest

surrounding technology and excuse me

where's the talk about Tesla being

willing to advertise and that being the

Catalyst what is this

um

this is like this is like chat GPT

trying to convince uh me the other day

that Chris Hanson was the person who

convinced Elon Musk to advertise I I

chatted back to it I'm like WTF Chris

Hanson wasn't even there and it's like

oh my apologies it was actually YouTuber

Kevin pafrath oh my God

anyway

bear case here we've been we they

include uh Tesla Mobility at zero

dollars bear case is only 5.5 million

units by 2030. 5.5 million units is like

my expectation for like 2020 and a

little earlier than that a few years

earlier than that uh base case for them

is actually 7.9 million units by 2030.

and uh then then they actually give them

10 million units by uh 2030 on the bull

case uh although you'll get some like

Elon aiming for 20. uh million units we

shall see that cyber truck might be a

big hit I'm excited about it I mean the

more I see about the Cyber truck the

more excited I get about it that's for

sure

so um

yeah uh that uh that's what I've got for

uh for the Tesla update uh I'm gonna go

uh play with my pee pee now here I go

look at that

I'm gonna end up dropping it

uh it'll shatter them actually I think

this is made out of carbon fiber you

know what else was made out of carbon

fiber oh make sure to check out the

programs on building your wealth link

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[Music]