Q1 Earnings: The Engines That Will Drive 2026 🚀

Okay, everybody, welcome. This is going

to be an epic call today. This is the Q4

Tesla Q4 earnings call. Here's what's

going to happen uh later today. We're

going to have basically we're starting

now the pre-show. It's 12:30 Pacific

time. In about half an hour, Tesla will

drop their financials. We'll find out

exactly how Q4 ended up all the uh

metrics and any information. They

sometimes drop forward-looking

statements there. That will happen in 30

minutes from now. And then at uh 2:30

Pacific time, so that'll be an hour and

a half after that, two hours from today,

that will be from now, that will be the

official event. We will live stream that

right on this channel. We're

co-streaming this as well on James uh

Invest Answers channel and everyone's X

accounts. And then after about an hour,

typically they have uh retail questions

are answered, analyst questions are

answered, Elon's on the call. After

that, we will do a post show analysis

and uh figure out what happened. But I

do think this is going to be a big big

day today. So here's the round table of

who we have here today. We've got uh

Jeff Wess will be joining us later. He

is an expert in manufacturing supply

chain. Of course we have Alexander Mertz

board and governance. You got James and

Vance answers stock analysis and

finance. Cernin Basher will be joining

us later finance and robotics. Larry

Goldberg's here as well. business and

energy. And then we've got Nick Gibbs

joining us as well, investing and stock

analysis. So, welcome everybody.

Appreciate uh everybody joining today.

>> Great to be here.

>> Oh my god, Nick. Did you get a haircut?

>> I did get a haircut.

>> How's your mood, Nick? How is your mood?

You're always the one that's pivoting,

so tell us.

>> Well, now it's bad. No,

>> now it's bad. Oh, wow.

>> Now it's good. So, a great day.

Nick, you look bad day, actually.

>> You look even younger. I mean, how young

can you get?

>> Well, I'll take that as a compliment.

>> Aging.

>> Yeah.

>> How old are you? Tell us.

>> Uh 35.

>> You don't look 35.

>> Thank you.

>> That's unbelievable.

>> But um

>> No, it's actually kind of a sad day uh

on my end over here. Uh, I think most of

you know I work at AWS and we had uh

16,000 layoffs today. So, lost a lot of

friends.

>> Sorry.

>> No, you didn't lose friends. You lost

colleagues, but you kept the friends.

>> I like that.

>> That's good. I like that, Alexander.

>> Yeah.

>> How many total How many total people at

AWS? 16,000 sounds like

>> So, we did another 16,000 back in

October. So that takes us to 32,000.

Um, so AWS alone has probably like

120 maybe maybe 150,000 people roughly.

Uh AWS has like 1 or I mean Amazon has

like 1.5 million.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. But who's counting, you know?

>> Sorry to hear that, Nick. But uh let's

get started with Tesla. James, did you

want to kick us off on what you're

expecting for the day?

>> Yeah, it's it's always tricky. We might

as well start with a chart to let us

know because a lot of people know should

they buy right now or not? And I always

like to look at where we are, where

we've come from. And before I just got

to get a little pet peeve out of my way.

You got a lot of people saying, "Oh,

Tesla's been dead money the last 5

years." Well, if you bought Tesla 5.7

years ago, it was $17 and it hit nearly

500. So, no, it's all about when you

time your buys. And that's why this

chart is very nice to look at over the

last 5 years. It shows you all the

layers of support and resistance. It

shows you where we've come from, where

we've gone. And by the way, my favorite

thing to trade is a volatile beast like

this because it's pretty easy to nail

tops and bottoms. Now, looking at the

chart today and trying to figure out

where we are going next is tricky

because there's so many catalysts and we

get get to the 2026 catalyst later and

other things, but right now the trend is

just turning up. It was very clear last

time we were on Herbert. Actually, I

said it was a clear short at $4.99 to

hedge Tesla and that worked out

perfectly. But now, what happens next?

So, the sentiment is so low for the

earnings and everything is kind of

priced in. Fed didn't do anything today.

We know the only way probably from here

is up and the chart tends to say that

too. It's been struggling trying to get

below 430 432 for a long time and it

tends not to go down that level. It did

hit 411 a couple of times a few weeks

ago and since then it's just under

accumulation. Um so from the chart

perspective here um and I know 70% of

earnings calls Tesla sells off

afterwards but this time could be

different. It'll all hinge on the

forward guidance the mood that Elon is

in what he says about all the catalysts

like semi FSD uptake robo taxi scaling

etc and the SpaceX dream which probably

is not going to happen. So that's the

way I see it right now.

>> Are you expecting a a jump then after

the call you

>> I expect it immediately normally when

the results come out it sells off and

then then the de deck is digested and

then it takes trad about 3 days to

understand exactly what's in the deck

where we'll decipher that and distill it

down in half an hour for you all. But uh

typically a sell-off will happen. But

but if the guidance is really strong,

you know, the six massive catalysts I

see for 2026, we'll dig into later. If

the world can wrap their head around

what's coming this year and next, it

should go up from 430.

>> Are you willing to share what trade you

made this morning?

>> Yeah, I sold a bunch of puts and bought

a bunch of calls. Uh 400 strike were the

calls and the puts were a little higher.

So break even on the trade is

>> $441

by the year by December 2027. So I got

two years to for the price of Tesla to

be above 441 which is $7 from where we

are now.

>> Yeah, sounds pretty pretty good. Okay,

let's go with you Alexandra. What are

you expecting from Elon and the board

and the executives?

You're on mute,

>> of course. Good start. Uh I actually

don't expect much today. I think we

heard a lot from Elon on his different

stages and you know where we are with

robot taxi. He was a little bit too

optimistic for the year end where robo

taxi deployment would be. So I don't

expect him to you know go much further

in his uh in his predictions. I think

this is going to be one of those

relatively muted calls. What I'm looking

for is um

on these earnings call the difference

between GAP and non-GAAP because that

will give us a first indication on how

much they have now accounted for

employee stock options including Elon's.

I think that's going to be very

interesting because since we all voted

in November to give them more or less

green light to do anything they wanted

plus the Toonetta decision in December

um this opened the floodgates to a lot

of accounting here. So I want to see how

they did that. The other thing I'm

looking in the immediate is uh free cash

flow. I think free cash flow is going to

be tough this year because there's going

to be so much investments in uh GPUs and

and other things that you know Tesla is

expanding like the craziest startup

ever. So I want to see how they

micromanage to still have some free cash

flow if they do uh because that's going

to be a a hard landing to get that right

and over all Q4 and all 2026 quarters.

And then I'm very much looking forward

to the 10K. So I I actually checked half

an hour ago um how quickly they

published the SEC findings. So those are

the edited accounts and there is so much

more information in the 10ks. I mean any

investor that takes it seriously really

should take half a day to read the 10ks.

Um and so that is coming out sometimes

the same day. Last year they managed to

do it the same day. So maybe that

happens again this year. In the years

prior it was between two and seven days

after the call. So last year was the

same day. So that is going to be a much

better source of detailed information

for deferred FSD revenue because that's

another thing to watch, right? There are

still a couple of billions lying around

that have to be at one point accounted

for. Uh obviously not all, only in the

United States, but does that start now

to melt down or not? Uh the recognition

of those uh FSD revenues. The other one

obviously stock options. We will have in

the 10k much more indication how they're

starting to allocate those stock option

possibilities they have now and in the

10k we will also have a lot of news

about ongoing litigation. So I am um you

know I'm sort of I'm always excited to

to listen to the earnings call but I'm

sort of not expecting them. I don't

expect any big news. I have one of those

questions and maybe Larry can help me. I

still don't understand why he wants to

bring uh SpaceX public. So that first

question sort of bothers me because I'm

I'm sort of not done yet with the whole,

you know, reasoning why he why he would

do that and why Tesla investors feel

they have some privilege or whatever. So

whatever it is, I'm going to listen, but

I don't expect much from today. That's

my message.

>> Can I respond to that, Herbert?

>> Please. So, the reason SpaceX is going

to go public is because it pretty much

has to.

We're moving into a completely new era

for uh SpaceX,

an era that's going to be incredibly

capital intensive,

and SpaceX's cash flow, while pretty

damn good compared to previous years,

um is nowhere near the challenge that uh

it now faces.

SpaceX is about to launch at least two

new businesses

on top of launching the largest flying

object ever made

uh at a

capital investment that is staggering.

Um they are building

currently four launch pads. They have

one that is just completed. They're

building four more launch pads, each of

which probably consume about a billion

to a billion and a half dollars by the

time they're all done.

They're building two rocket factories,

the largest rocket factories ever built

to manufacture each of them to

manufacture roughly a Starship every

couple of hours, the largest rocket ever

built. And the amount of capital that

it's going to consume

while staggering is nothing compared to

the amount of capital that they're going

to have to um shepherd together to put

uh a data center into the sky.

I'm not even talking about Starink

because Starlink is already cash flow

positive. It's the one business that's

delivering really strong cash flow. cash

flows in the past at at SpaceX have been

pretty marginal in in the kind of

dollars we're talking about now.

So there's absolutely no doubt at all in

my mind that they're going to have to

raise a minimum of 25 billion dollar.

That's not small change. That is a

massive IPO.

Um it's going to be one of the biggest

IPOs ever. Um, they may have to raise

more than that. That's just that 25

billion is if they really scrimp save

and cut cut the corners and and do all

the things SpaceX do, they may go for

more than that. They may go for as much

as double that. So, there's no doubt in

my mind that uh, you know, a real IPO is

really necessary. And if you look at the

cash flow negative

potential that the the curve goes very

steep after July this year a well after

August this year it really goes steep.

So I think this is absolutely the right

moment and the stock is I mean the

market is really really hungry for IPOs.

This can open the floodgates for IPOs

which is a reason the banks are very

active. I saw a uh a betting market

saying that it's like 80% plus chance

that the IPO will happen. And not only

will SpaceX IPO, but it'll happen in

June because it's Elon's birthday and

it's some sort of planetary

alignment.

>> There's always there's always a

planetary alignment. By the way, the one

one kind or another that's not

>> I wanted to ask the panel here. Let's go

round table. How likely is it that it's

that it's not going to be a SpaceX IPO,

but some sort of SpaceX Tesla reverse

merger or something like that? Is it 0%

chance that it'll be a Tesla SpaceX

involvement or is there some percentage

chance? What do you think, Larry? Let's

go. Let's go down the list here. Oh,

>> I think it's zero. Um, I think Elon has

made up his mind. He's brought in the

four major the five major banks that,

you know, are the banks that can can do

the heavy lift on an IPO. None of them

want complications. They've dealt with

complications with Elon before. I think

they want a very very very

uh clean IPO because it's it's not only

important for SpaceX, it's important for

them for the future of the IPO market. I

think that's a very big consideration

for them and I think they have the means

to put the kind of pressure on.

>> Alexandra,

>> I have no means of um you know seeing

how this could go. But if if Larry is

right and I do believe he's right on the

amounts if this happens, it could not be

just a reverse merger with Tesla. I mean

that doesn't bring enough cash in the in

the pockets. And if he's right that this

is going through the standard big banks,

they won't let that happen because this

is their cake. So, um,

close to zero.

>> And do and do remember when we had that

Bill Aman proposal.

>> He clearly said at one moment, stop this

all. We're not cutting corners. So,

that's it. We're not cutting corners.

>> James, never going to happen. It's too

complex, too. Doesn't fulfill the

original people that invest in SpaceX

anyway. And it dilutes too many

franchises and puts too much of a target

on Elon. Stupid idea. That was one of

the things that when Shimath came out

with that, I was like, "Dude, what are

you drinking? You and the Malfy Coast

pounding a few bottles of wine. That

doesn't make any sense. Here we are.

>> Well, you know, Tesla investors want to

This is the number one question. Uh,

Nick,

>> uh, first of all, pounding wine on the

Maui Coast makes a lot of sense to me.

And I think if anything Tesla will be

part of the IPO in the sense where they

will maybe put 5 or 10 billion into it.

I think that makes a lot more sense and

that fulfills the promise to investors.

And I think you also wouldn't want it

because if god forbid there's another,

you know, Lena, wrath of con 2.0, they

would be screwed and it get way too

political. And finally, I think July 4th

makes more sense.

250th birthday. That's true.

>> Jeeoff,

>> thought this was a Tesla earnings call.

>> Yeah, let's answer that.

>> Which is why I hate that first question.

>> This is the very first question. So, we

needed to address it that

>> the market is closed on July the 4th.

>> Jeeoff, uh, you can answer this question

and then you can go into your own

introducation spots, too. Uh,

>> your volume seems a little quiet.

All right, Herbert, just one thing after

another. Um, I think they're going to

invest

and it's going to be some some nominal

amount. I don't I don't imagine some

huge tie up at day one. There are

overlaps, but I I think it just it would

be too messy. I think there's a I think

there's a clean IPO coming for SpaceX,

but I I I wouldn't be surprised if

there's some form of Tesla involvement

uh given, you know, future convergence

and what's happening with with data

center.

>> Yeah.

>> And can I add that that first question

will never be answered. I mean, there's

no way he can answer that question.

Yeah, I agree with all the above, but we

seem to burn these questions with with

such abandon. It just disturbs me.

There's so many good questions we could

ask.

>> Exactly. We end up asking the the

questions that he can't answer or that

he has answered many times.

>> Just to update everybody, we are doing

the pre-show right now. In about 10

minutes, Tesla will drop their

financials deck. We'll dive deep into

that and and give you guys our analysis

on that. Then at 2:30 Pacific time, the

official event will launch. We'll live

stream it here and then we'll do a post

show analysis.

>> Can Can I just add Can I just add one

last comment? I I one last thought

because the SpaceX IPO keeps, you know,

occupying my brain. I think he will do

it before the midterms. I think that um

there's currently a favorable political

climate that he has to use for major

strategic moves and this is one of them.

>> Yeah, makes sense. Bitcoin.

>> James, did you want to uh set the stage

for Q4 or did you want to move to Q1?

>> You're on mute.

>> I've got a couple of things more about

setting the stage for 2026 because

people are, you know, they don't know

whether they if they have no position,

should they start a position, should

they wait for a crash to $200 or $100?

And I just like to talk about some of

the the broad topics that I see that are

very important for the future. So, we

could jump in there and then we could

drill down into who's actually buying

the stock. Very interesting data there.

How short interest has changed quarter

over quarter and everything else. But

let's start with slide nine, which I'd

love for the panel to sound in on. Oh,

you can control the slides. Good. This

one. Uh, these are what I call the big

2026 catalysts that I think are very

important. Obviously, robo taxi cyber

cab that's ramping really fast. Uh,

thank you for covering my tweet the

other day in a video, Herbert. FSD and

autonomy. I think the uptake for FSD

will be incredible. All the

non-believers I know who never believed

in FSD have gone out and bought Model

Y's and now they don't drive anymore.

Literally in the space of a month, the

flip has been incredible from anecdotal

evidence. Uh Ro Optimus Ramp um you know

Fremont scaling to maybe 1 million per

year. Lots of rumors out there as well

about all the parts and suppliers that

have been contracted with the mega pack

business. The big hyperscalers begin to

understand they get more bang for their

electricity buck which is a bottleneck

by buying mega packs. That's going to be

huge. The new semi not to be

understated. Shout out to Bill Gates who

said it would never be possible. And

then the rest the convergence and the

synergy across the Musk industries I

think are huge very big right now. So

they be kind of the big and we can drill

into any of these or all of them at the

same time but I think these are the big

topics for 2026 that are going to hit in

2026. There may not be retail sale of

Optimus robots as we learned from the

Davos event but they are definitely

going to be deploying them in their own

factories may already be doing so for

productive labor and there'll be a lot

more of that coming very quickly.

Thoughts? I I I have one thought. I

think I think we're missing what may

become a very important catalyst

and it is around

AI5

the progress towards AI5

data the possibility of a chip fab.

>> Yes. Well, I didn't put that I didn't

put that in purposely because this is

only talking 2026 catalyst. I don't

think any of that is going to hit and

have any material impact in the year

2026. 2027, yes, we agree, but not this

year.

>> I think I think the announcement though

could come this year and I think the

announcement could be in itself a

catalyst particularly if the

announcement is tied with the SpaceX

announcement. That's just

>> I may be wrong.

>> Yeah. And I've I've done the math on

that is like what happens if Tesla could

match Nvidia around future chip scale.

AI5, AI 6, 78, Space, Optimus, Cars,

Dojo 3 is back. That that basically adds

$1,500 to stock price in two years.

That's that's the craziness of the

numbers behind this. But over to you

guys,

>> Jeff.

>> Oh, how you doing?

>> What are we missing?

>> I mean, I a couple just a couple of

comments like the the boring thing of

kind of where most of their earnings are

coming from today with which is to me

more of a present value thing, not a

future value thing. I actually think

they're going to be flat to slightly up

on on vehicles. That'll be interesting,

including the cyber cab. It' be

interesting to see what they say about

that. For whatever reason, you know,

there's a lot of the analyst community

hangs on that. I think part of it is is

is cash to fund, you know, the rest of

these endeavors in the business. So, I

see flat to slightly up. And just a

couple other comments. I think there's

um there's there's negative pressure in

it's happening in every downward

pressure in every single region. If you

look at it from an incentives

perspective of what's happening in China

as of January 1st there's a reduction in

incentives of course in the US what's

happened and in in Western Europe.

However, I think it's an interesting

thing because that's all that gets

discussed about Tesla in in context of

EVs is the loss of incentives. But

what's not what's underdised is the

retrenchment of all the existing Western

European auto manufacturers and US auto

manufacturers. Yep.

>> From EV production and quite frankly an

undercurrent and in real economic

trouble and fracture for several of the

big names in China. It it's what what's

easy for the media to do is count number

of units and say China is great and

perfect and dominating and part of that

is infiltrated in terms of the media and

sponsorship and so forth. A lot of it

isn't real. And when you go under you go

under look a couple layers deep there's

real economic problems with some of the

major Chinese EV auto manufacturers.

There's been a lot of intervention from

the CCP. So just anyway auto units I

know kind of a boring conversation but I

think um you know a little bit more

commentary of of what I see on that.

>> Yeah and two things to add to that

Jeeoff you're dead right. We've gone

from the competition has coming to the

competition has left the building with

the exception of BY selling $10,000

cars, but they're not in the same

market. And uh the second thing, we now

have beneath price parodel

Y. Try find a car on the market that can

do what that car can do, even remotely

close to that price. It's not possible.

True.

>> Yes. And and the other quick comment on

in BYYD is as they've grown their units,

their income has reduced and their

income per vehicle has reduced and their

gross margins have reduced. So that

tells you that there was underlying

issues with channel inventory, with cash

conversion, with how they're essentially

running their business. And when they

had to start paying suppliers, they ran

into issues. I just think for this call,

the setup for this call is Elon's mood.

It should be quite good. In the last

couple of weeks, he's literally talked

about doubledigit GDP growth happening

over what the next 12 to 18 months,

which could be at one point of this

year. Double. So, if you're if you're

project, remember in 2022 he was

projecting uh you know darker times for

the economy and some of that came to

fruition and now he's talking about

double-digit GDP growth. So, if you're

projecting double- digit GDP growth,

you're probably coming in overall in a

decent mood. And he's in the zone. He's

he's back at his companies. He's

building. So, I actually think he's

going to be in a pretty solid mood. And

he in terms of his future projections,

I'd have to think that they're they're

quite positive. I do think there needs

to be a reckoning in more near-term

milestones of what's happening with robo

taxi because I think a lot of the

investment community takes what he says

is verbatim writes them down in a

spreadsheet and when they're not hit

it's like hey you said this and this

happened what you'll hear me talk about

is these things that have never been

done before in the world and the way

that Tesla is doing them there's going

to be some guard band around that so

it'll be interesting to see what he

talks about in terms of the state of the

acceleration of robo taxian deployment.

We've seen some acceleration in the last

week, but uh I think there needs to get

into a little bit more near-term

commentary of more near-term milestones

on that. I'll pause.

>> Thanks. Good stuff.

>> Yep. So, in about a minute or so,

sometimes it's about two or three

minutes after the hour, that's when

we'll see a download version and we'll

take a look at the PDF. Anybody else

want to make uh comments?

One risk that I think we should consider

is that there may be a layoff round

that Elon announces in this uh

>> I agree with you. I was thinking about

that. It's usually a little bit later,

right? It's between February and April

usually he does it.

>> Right. Right. Right. It's not normally

in the first quarter, but I mean it's

two years since the last big layoff

round and you know he he is a creature

of habit.

>> Yeah. and and there will be one. It's

just he believes in this type of

management where there is a at least

once a year cleanout

sometimes overreaching he rehiring

people but it happens it happens

regularly. You're right.

>> Anybody have any predictions for Q4?

>> Yeah.

>> Oh, just one more quick comment just on

on energy on in Davos. Elon said, "We're

reaching a point this year where there's

going to be not enough power to light up

the GPUs that are in that are under

production and on their way for

delivery." That's a critical turning

point for this industry. It may come up

on the other Mag 7 meta Microsoft calls

as well. that could be a critical

turning point and have you know if that

turns into that is a bottleneck coming

that could be I don't know if it's going

to be as much of a Tesla it may come up

on the Tesla call but it just speaks to

the pressure on Tesla energy to scale up

that Houston factory and to scale up LFP

production in the US

>> yeah watching that Tesla energy revenue

is going to be that important

>> yeah my my question on that one is what

was transfer pricing from uh Tesla to

XAI for the 500 megap packs. Did they

charge full whack or discounted rate?

They they've got to show they've got to

show that the price that they sold to to

their related company or their

shareholder related company was at

equivalent to the rates that they sold

to other large clients. So it it would

be very difficult for them to do

anything else.

>> Yeah.

>> Hey, real quick just uh this is just

kind of breaking. Uh Tesla started

informing customers through sales

advisers that there was a mislabeling of

AP45, meaning there is currently no

hardware 4.5. All vehicles delivered

today have AI4, hardware 4. Tesla will

update all labels, etc. to eliminate any

confusion moving forward.

>> Yeah, that was about time. I mean, that

was such a mess.

>> So, there is no 4.5. Okay.

>> No, that's just as well.

>> Sometimes retail analysts are too

analytic.

>> Work in a work in a factory and tell me

how that happened. Uh, anyway, um, I can

see it happening, by the way, if there

were two SKs and just one not ready for

production. But, I don't know. It'd be

interesting to to see what happened

behind the curtain on that one. I

>> Anyway, we're earnings are imminent

here. Looks like Microsoft just smashed

EPS by the way. And uh looks like Meta

did as well, FYI.

>> It's good for the whole space. And but

and also S&P 500 broke 7,000 today as

well. And the Fed had no impact on

things which is good.

>> But we're not expecting good u good news

for Q4 2025, right, for Tesla?

>> No. 44 cents, 45 cents and that'll be

>> that's even that's even highend. I think

it it could be even as low as 40 cents

and that's still okay. It depends.

There's some surprise kickers. You know,

FSD uptake is pure margin. Mega pack, a

lot of margin there. That could offset

the weakness in the cars.

>> Did have you guys allowed for the

reduction in the value of the crypto?

>> Oh, that

>> that's going to go straight to the

bottom line. Straight to the

>> It does. It does. But um I mean, again,

just calling that to everybody else who

who reads those now. Don't look at the

gap number. Look at the non-GAAP number.

The difference is mainly how much now

they are allocating in stock options is

not real cash. That is

policy and politics. So let's wait for

the 10K until we understand more of

that. But don't worry about that

difference when it comes out now. Just

concentrate on the non-GAAP for the

moment.

>> And then Nick, you're following closely

what's happening with this stock and

what's your prediction? Oh,

>> give me one second. I'm trying to hear

what they're saying on CNBC.

>> Oh, it is here.

>> Oh, man.

>> Got the deck.

>> It's there. You got it

>> for I'm afraid it can't do that. It's

not. It says it's there, but it's not.

Yeah. Or else the system is crashing

because

>> same with me. Yeah.

>> We're all doing the same thing trying to

grab it. Yeah.

>> It says it's there, but it's not.

Sometimes you can right mouse click the

link and save link.

>> I'm doing I'm doing both.

>> And it still says 404.

No.

Tesla turn negative slightly down one

160.

>> It's actually good. I didn't see that

before that on this table further to the

right Herbert you now have the consensus

numbers there as well the page is

actually bigger and so after the SEC

filings on the right you have

>> I can't get there right now

>> yeah there you now have a column saying

consensus so that's good

>> are you sure Tesla's out

>> well the link is out the file's not

there

>> the link is out but the file's not

connected out

and I've got another place I'm searching

to.

>> Let me text. Let me text. Uh

>> yeah,

>> text me.

>> No, not you.

>> I know. I know.

>> Cue the meme of that guy standing behind

the data center with all the cables

looking at it with his hands on his

waist.

So, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are all

going down in after hours.

>> Well, there could be some pin action

there, too.

>> Wow.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> Tesla's down pretty good.

>> Uh, three bucks.

>> $3 is nothing.

>> Okay, here we go.

No,

>> you got it.

>> Nope. Thought so. It It changed for a

second, then it went back.

>> No, I I did send a message to Travis.

Guys, Metas increased their uh capital

expenditures estimate to 115 billion for

the year from what?

>> I mean, they are crazy.

>> 105 billion.

>> So, for some reason Tesla's now positive

in after hours.

>> And you thought the IPO with 25 billion

was a lot. Um, Larry.

>> Okay. Just in they beat

>> 50 based beat 40 expected. Told you I

said 45

>> 50. Wow.

>> Revenue 24.9 versus 24.7. This is that

FSD is pure margin and mega pack. When

we get into the deck, we can prove that.

But I think that was the secret.

>> I still can't

>> in my area. Sorry, Alexander. I'm so

sorry for you. Disappointed.

>> Oh, no. I'm happy.

>> Where are you getting it from, James?

Are you getting

>> the internet?

>> Okay. So, somebody else was able to get

it though.

>> Yeah. Wait, let me try. I'll share it in

the comments on YouTube.

>> Oh, yeah. Now it's up 437.

>> There we are. I I Can somebody email to

me if you've got it? I don't know.

Email 1800 herbert.com

>> on top and bottom line.

>> It's now over 10 bucks.

>> Oh yeah.

>> Remember remember what I said at the

beginning of this call? I said the

sentiment is so bad.

>> Probably the only way is up and there

could be Download it, guys. It's

somebody.

>> You're going to have Mag 7. You're going

to have people selling. Looks like

they're selling Microsoft at the moment,

right?

>> Meta at the moment.

>> And they're looking for

>> Tesla's up 16 after hours, ladies and

gentlemen.

>> Nice. Good thing.

>> Yeah.

>> Gross margins improved.

>> Never listen to me. Okay. If if somebody

has can you share your screen if you've

got info somewhere?

>> Apparently it says in the deck that

cyber cabab mega pack and robot taxis

are all on track for 2022.

>> That's not highlight

guys.

>> Anybody else able to do it?

>> Is anybody on the see whether I have it

on fintech? Give me a second.

So CNBC must have spent four seconds on

it because they're already on.

Interesting. Not surprising.

>> Oh, Meta is crushing it.

So

that's pressure.

There already a lot of guys trying to

downplay the results on X. There must be

steaming.

>> Oh,

>> see the steam coming from their ears.

>> I've been wondering about that. We had

we had a lot of EDS, you know, 12 to 15

months ago, but ever since Elon has been

hanging out of the White House again,

it's kind of amped up. Has anybody

noticed that?

>> Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. It's

fun. fun to watch.

>> Other people say that they're able to

download it. So, how do we get access to

it?

>> Refresh.

>> I'm refreshing.

>> I got the deck.

>> You got the deck. Okay. Can you

>> email it? Can you email it to me?

>> Email it.

>> How did you get it, Nick?

>> Just clipped it.

>> And it doesn't work here.

>> Try a different browser perhaps.

Herbert.

>> All right.

Oh, good idea. Okay, but can you email

it to me? Um,

>> no, it doesn't work in different

browser.

>> You want me to share my screen?

>> Yes.

>> Yeah,

>> you control it then. But I still want

it.

>> Well, okay. Well,

>> he'll he'll give you one Bitcoin for it.

Perfect.

>> Worth a pizza. Just worth a pizza.

>> Sure. Let's go.

>> Yeah. Okay. Just share it. I'll I'll get

it some other time.

>> Not a ripping.

>> Can you share it?

>> Work on it, homie.

>> Herbert.

>> No.

to deck with it.

>> There we go. All right.

>> There we go.

>> I'll be your hand. You tell me what to

do. Herbert,

>> uh, we usually go right to the Outlook.

>> Outlook.

>> Yeah.

>> Love to see that energy ribbon. I got

it.

>> 14 backseat drivers.

>> 1.1 billion energy margin gross profit.

>> It works now.

>> Okay, I got it.

>> No, it's okay. Just keep keep showing

until I get it.

>> All right. Well,

>> yeah, it does. Boom. Okay.

>> Automotive sales declined sequentially.

>> That's fun. Gross margin even when

excluding the impact regatory credits

improved. Oh, that's nice.

>> Okay. Preparations continue. North

America for production ramped

>> free cash flow 1.4 billion. That's

massive.

>> Wow.

>> So many people calling for zero or

negative.

>> I know. I I thought it would it would be

really zero or slightly negative. That

is really good. 1.42. Of course,

>> in Q1 of this year, we plan to unveil

the Gen 3 version of Optimus. So, that

sounds like it's on plan.

>> I'd like to go back as well and remind

everybody, Elon Musk said 2026 would be

off the hook and 2027 even crazier. So,

>> oh, look at this. This is the first time

they have uh robotics under the

installed annual manufacturing capacity

and they have construction.

>> Oh wow.

>> Good.

>> What are the non-believers going to say

now, Nick?

>> Um

>> Oh no.

>> Oh, and active FSD subscriptions are up

to 1.1 million um year up 38%. And they

are they are now showing them they're

now showing them on page six in the

middle.

>> Is there a investment in XAI?

>> No. Don't don't don't don't don't.

>> Yep.

Two billion to acquire shares of Series

E preferred XAI stock as part of a

recently publicly disclosed financing

round.

You were joking, right?

>> No. Under other updates.

>> The catch.

>> Where is that? What page is that? Let's

take a look.

>> It's under other updates. Page 12. First

paragraph.

>> Oh my god.

>> Yeah, that's great.

>> Oh my god.

>> It's only two.

>> Relax. Relax.

>> Huge.

>> Well, two billion is a spit in the

bucket. But you have to remember as well

the relative valuation of of XAI

compared to ChachiT OpenAI which is

going down the toilet probably uh is

quite small like it depends what was the

valuation did it say Jeeoff was it 200

billion or 250 billion

>> 230 230

>> 230 okay that's good because we know if

if open AI is worth

>> 800 billion 600 billion we know XAI is

worth more so buying at that valuation

is like putting four billion into Agree.

>> Oh, I'm so pleased this finally worked.

I was so worried after the shareholder

meeting that we wouldn't get green light

for that. This is this is really good

news.

>> FS subscriptions more than doubled in

2025.

>> Yeah.

>> And that's why that's why they're seeing

the huge uptick now. That's why they're

killing the $8,000 deal.

>> We're we're still at 444. This is really

good. The verbiage has changed a little

bit to Cybergab production and se Tesla

semi to they say first half 2026. It

used to be April for the Cyber Cab.

>> Yeah.

>> So they're putting a bit of wiggle room

in there, but that's okay.

>> Did it I mean I know he said April, but

did the last earnings print say April

for Cyber Cap or did it say

>> No. No, it's it just said 2026.

Yeah. So, I think they're they may have

narrowed it from the We have to look at

the last one and see.

>> Yeah.

>> And they're still at 44.1 billion after

dropping two billion in XAI of cash,

which is big. Um, where's the Bitcoin

hit?

>> You know, you would think Micron just

dropped earnings

>> all at the bottom.

>> Look, look at this uh future planned.

It's like by the by the first quarter of

this year, it's going to skyrocket up to

250,000. That's fantastic.

H100 equivalents.

>> Oh,

>> I'm still not over that. We are at 1.42

billion free cash flow. This is so

massive. You have no idea. This is

really incredibly good number.

>> And and and and 20.1% gross margin.

Again, look at the

>> look at the low channel inventory. I

haven't looked at the the um the total

factory inventory on here yet, but

you're if you leave you exit a Q4 like

that with 15 days of inventory, you're

you're going to be doing something

special on cash unless you you know.

>> Yeah. So, for a robotic,

>> also to let you know, you remember how

regulatory credits ended? Well, they

they actually are up. They're up from

417

million the quarter before to now 542.

Yeah, but the ZEV credits did not end.

ZE credits have not.

>> Yes, but they were

everybody expected them to go down.

>> Well, I didn't because everybody

everybody else is exiting EVs and so the

more they exit EVs, the higher Z credits

they have to pay. I I had Z credits

going up. So for robotics, they plan to

unveil Optimus Gen 3 this quarter and

it's designed for mass production and

the start of production by the end of

this year.

Eventually 1 million robots per year.

That's the line that's being built now.

So that's it's huge.

Okay, let's go through this one more

time.

Yeah, free cash flow 6.4. So what

happened here, man? That's like whoa.

Oh, that's all of the 1.4 and Q4. Okay,

that's great.

>> So, all the numbers look good, right?

>> Yeah.

>> Correct.

>> Wow.

>> Numbers look really excellent. I mean,

they are

>> sales depth. Yeah.

>> Better than anybody I know forecast.

>> Yeah. And we're now sitting on 44

billion.

>> 44 billion of cash.

>> Of cash. Yeah.

So that

>> is interesting that that at least their

their factory inventory their total four

wall inventory

>> is up I would say rather significantly

quarter quarter. Now, that could be

getting ready for cyber cap ramp. That

could be, you know, bringing in more

batteries, especially pre-ar uh the

tariff going up in January for LFP cells

out of China. But it's it's up I mean

from

>> well, it's 12.3, right?

>> Well, ending six billion

in

like third quarter to 76 billion. So,

that's interesting. That again that's

not

>> um anyway that's that's all

>> no the inventory

>> correct yeah

>> this is the most important line cyber

cap semi mega are on schedule for volume

production starting in 2026

first half 2026

>> where did it say that said just starting

in 2026

>> no I thought could have somewhere else

first half yeah hang

>> okay

>> must say somewhere. We just had a back

and forth about it. Okay.

>> Okay. There was a net gain in digital

assets.

>> That's weird.

>> This I think the street's going to like

the 20.1% non-GAAP gross margin.

>> Yeah. Yeah. It's huge. I mean, it's

amazing.

Oh, did I don't know if you guys talked

about this, but did you see the planned

robo taxi coverage?

>> No. Where is that?

Uh,

>> right there. You pass it down.

>> Down.

Down.

>> Right there. Bottom right.

>> Oh, planned robo taxi miles.

>> Okay. No,

>> forget miles. Oh.

>> Oh, planned robo taxi coverage.

>> There you go.

Let's go Tampa. That's me, baby.

>> There you go. That's actually Tampa and

Orlando are the only two that are really

surprised, aren't they?

>> No.

>> First half, that's a huge number of

first half.

>> Kathy Woods is here and Larry Goldberg

comes down all the time. So, it makes

sense to have

>> No, I I No, I understand it. But

actually, we knew all these cities other

than Orlando and Tampa is what I'm

saying.

>> Yes. I've been posting pictures of the

the validating testers. So

>> guys, these are dates. These are first

half dates. I mean, this is

>> Yeah, it's a lot more than just Elon

saying it. This is on an earning, right?

What's the legality of that, Alexandra?

When it shows up on this kind of

>> Oh, now now it's binding. I mean, it of

course they can have delays, but they

will have to explain them if there are

delays because this is now written in

stone first.

>> It's not B. We shouldn't say it's

binding, I think.

>> Yeah.

Why are they testing in Mr. Lutz's

hometown and in Buffalo, New York and

places and they're not listed here?

Anybody idea?

>> Because they're probably not ready for

first half 2026 with regulators.

>> Yeah. Are they waiting for the snow

gear?

>> You also wouldn't want to start there,

right? You want to do sunny areas before

you go there.

>> Yeah, for sure.

>> Yeah, we don't have Whimo yet either.

Yeah, that is correct. There's a there's

a con a comment here. I don't have the

hand anymore on the comments. Uh

Herbert, so if you can put it in. It's

uh I am old AF saying the two billion

XAI commitment. Um I didn't say it. Um

was on 16th of January. So it has

nothing to do with the 31st of December

2025 financial results. So that is

correct. Um it doesn't matter because

the

it doesn't even say that there was any

payment or any pay um you know anything

exchanged yet. It was just the contract

signing.

>> It's not on the it's not on the cash

flow statements.

>> Exactly. Because it's January because

it's January anyway. It's not December

now. I was looking at the stock options.

>> Oh, you want to talk stock options? We

can talk stock.

>> Yeah. Because you see you see on page

five you have the net income

attributable to to common stockholders

gap and below the the line non-GAAP and

the difference of these two which is 2

billion

is going to be mainly explained by

issued stock options. So um I think that

is very interesting but like I said it's

going to take us until 10k until we

really know more about it. But that is a

huge number two billion.

Yeah, but that's that's the black shells

valuation of the stock options that

they're estimating. So, exactly

>> that two billion could represent 20 10

to 20 billion dollars of stock options.

>> This is my favorite earnings call so

far. All right, we've got the robo taxi

plan for scaling. I just heard someone

talk about Black Scholes on the earnings

call. Everything's ripping up. This is

awesome.

No.

>> Yeah, except for the Amazon news you had

today.

>> Yeah, but this is awesome.

>> This is awesome, but it really isn't

the, you know, the main event. The main

event is which Elon shows up. So, if you

have an awesome result and Elon's in a

bad mood, stocks going to tank. If you

have this and and a bright shiny Elon

chful bright shiny Elon pops up, I mean

the stock can rip.

>> Oh, I'm with you, Larry. But it doesn't

matter because I've got a bunch of leaps

on Meta right now that are playing out

really well and and I didn't get laid

off today as part of the 16,000. So

Nick, you you just can't doesn't matter

what Elon says. Can't damp

>> exactly what Nick says. Exactly. Don't

don't care about Elon's mood. carry

about Nick's mood. That's all you need.

>> Yeah.

>> APAC was very strong record vehicle

deliveries in Asia Pacific region in Q4.

That's important.

>> Yeah. Yeah. That's something that I

Yeah,

>> there's a lot in this report. I mean,

there is

>> there's a bunch for Q1 installed

capacity

>> uh of 4680 of cathode material. There's

a lot of data in this report.

I don't think this report could have

been better

for the end of 24 2025

and getting us ready for 2026 which is

this huge year for us. So this is

setting the stage in the best possible

manner.

>> Larry, if you combine this chart here

says cortex one is now greater than

100,000 H100 equivalents.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> And then cortex 2 is in construction.

But if you see here that it's going to

jump in March. Is that cortex 2 or is it

going to be cortex one?

>> I think it's got to be cortex 2. There's

no way that that's cortex one. There's

no way. Yeah, that that is a lot of I

mean that's

>> a lot

>> almost as many process almost as much

processing capacity as already exists.

>> Yeah. So, um, there's no doubt this is

Cortex 2. I mean, Cortex 2 is massive.

I, you know, I've said this.

>> Did we lose you? Yeah, we lost.

>> Oh, there he is.

>> Anyone else noticed?

>> Oh, go ahead, Larry.

I'm just saying the the the volume of

the factory is gigantic and they're

putting in black wheels which means

every processor is, you know, eight

times more powerful than the processes

they're using in Cortex one. So it's

it's gigantic.

If you go back up on page four, third

line from the bottom, capital

expenditure,

you saw that they spent six billion in

the first quarter, no sorry, in in the

whole of 2021,

7 billion in the whole of 2022, nearly 9

billion in 23, 11 billion in 24 capital

expenditure.

>> Yeah, I'm here

and only 8.5 that announced it would be

between 9 and 10 in 2025.

So they I don't know whether they slowed

down, didn't get what they wanted, but I

I had expected that capital expenditure

uh number to be closer to 10 billion.

>> I'll tell you why. Because cortex is not

yet ready. They planned Cortex to be

ready and for the black holes to be

installed. So it's going to hit hard in

Q.

>> Yeah. And that's what save probably free

cash flow.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that.

>> Exactly. It's not the same. It's the

annual page. So, it's one page. It's one

page further.

>> We're gonna see

>> mega mega pack and mega block production

is starting in Houston this year. That's

also very big.

>> Yeah.

>> Oh, yeah. I mean, they have a need for

capital expenditure this year. We have

seen nothing yet. We have

>> everything's happening this year.

>> I know. So, that's why free cash flow is

such a is always an important number,

but this year it's the number to watch.

Oops. Maybe Nick's being laid off.

>> No, he's so rich now. He's going.

>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Getting a drink.

>> I do. I do have a slide.

>> 35. You're still impressed.

>> They did mention the lithium production

as well. But one thing is uncanny. If

you can pop up that slide for a second.

Guess what? Elon is always in the right

place at the right time. Look at the

lithium

>> hydroxide prices

>> pop in China. And guess who is the, you

know, does BY have a lithium hydroxide

factory that kicks off all of the waste

to turn into cement as well at the same

time using a very environmentally

friendly method?

>> No, I don't think so.

>> They produce their own they produce

their own, you know, end to end cells.

Can is my volume okay? I'm getting a lot

of Yeah, it's perfect.

>> It's very good. It's very good.

>> Okay.

>> Slow at the low at the beginning, but I

think that's big point. Jeff, it's still

low. Jeff,

>> tell us about the lithium. They can make

a million cars a day from their scale

their

>> Well, I think people get confused with

these graphs because there's two sets of

graphs out there. This is the right

graph to look at which is the lithium

hydroxide which is taking lithium from

the ground and actually proc this is

processed lithium. What people are

looking at is they're looking at uh a

delay in the process and they're looking

at sell and pack prices of lithium ion

batteries and they're seeing those come

down. So, there's inventory issues.

there's inventory issues of sales

between uh cell manufacturers and

Chinese EV uh producers for example. So

the sales themselves th those prices are

down but this is the leading indicator

and I believe I I mean I don't know for

certain but I believe this is being

centrally controlled. My fear is this is

rare number two in the making. It's

something that they have in the

background

>> that they can control. Now, there's been

a need for them to control it because

sell and pack production and inventory

is through the roof right now. So, two

different things. This is the earlier

stage. The sell pricing you're going to

see is lower. What I'm interested in is

why is Tesla only doing seven seven

gawatt hours of LFP production in the US

and where I mean where are they going to

get the rest of you know 70 80 gawatt

hours of LFP? I mean, the the tariffs on

lithium ion in in cells have have gone

up in on January 1st again and I think

they're right around 82%.

>> Um, so again, when you layer on the AIPA

tariffs, the section 301 tariffs, the

fentanyl tariffs, there was an existing

3.4% one just for lithium ion alone. So

anyway, I just am interested to see like

what's the plan for energy? Where are

you getting cells from and how's this

going to play out? Again, doesn't seem

to come up as an issue, but it

>> Yeah,

>> it should be. But one thing I do, maybe

you could stress on Jeff as well is what

got me by that chart is the prices of

lithium hydroxide have gone up 120%.

>> Yep.

>> In six months.

>> Yeah,

>> that's a lot.

>> They're just shutting down M they're

just shutting down um refining. They're

basically just saying, "Look, there's

too much product out there." This is

again, they went in six months before

and said, "Hey, too much too much EV

production, too many price wars, and

they went in and intervene there."

They're still seeing fallout from there

from that. Again, if you look at the

cell pricing of lithiumion, you're going

to see that actually coming uh way down.

So, there's two different things

happening. Uh but again, they're just

time phase. Soon as those cells are are

soaked up out of inventory, you're going

to be running into the curve you just

showed, which is much higher pricing for

refined material.

Can we take a look at this, Jeeoff? Uh,

take a look at this table here because

um, you can see that it says CyberCap's

still tooling, the Tesla Semi still

tooling. Shocking that Roadster still

says TBD and design development when

it's supposed to be presented in April

1st. You got Optimus in construction and

Mega Packac in construction. But if you

look over here, it says um Tesla Semi

and Cybercap both commencing first half

of 26 and production of the next gen

Roadster.

>> Yeah.

>> What tooling what tooling means is they

are making the that the design is

essentially done for production. Not

saying they're never going to make

changes. This is the repeat tooling off

of the first set of tooling so that you

can scale the product. So when a product

moves to tooling in the production

phase, it's moving towards replication

of tools, those additional tools will

make more supply to get product into the

factory from suppliers. And Tesla's own

factory tooling is being replicated. Now

I I believe they have the cyber cab

design done minus again what they find

in road testing or a reliability test

here or there. smaller uh you know

couple day changes, maybe few week

changes, but they're in they're on the

green and they're just making shorter

putts. That's what's happening with that

and the semi.

The Roadster, they they haven't I mean,

nobody's want to hear about the Roadster

too much, but other than to say that

they probably haven't approved the final

design to go into a tooling ramp is is

what that says.

>> And it won't be a scale car anyway. So

that ramp isn't that important. So they

could probably make it at the uh space

factory

down there. Good. Nothing but goodness.

Anyway, my point about the lithium

hydroxide, by the way, was foresight.

That in case anybody missed that is how

he can anticipate down the line, years

ahead of time, there's a massive need

for this and nobody else is going to do

it. So I thought that was important.

>> Yeah, for sure. Alexandra before you go

there take a look at this. If cash says

we'll manage the business such that we

ensure a strong balance sheet

maintaining a sufficient liquidity to

fund our product roadmap long-term

capacity expansion plans further

vertical integration other expenses. How

are they going to do that and profit

when this year they're going to be

launching like we just said MegaC, Mega

Block, Semi, Optimus, Robo Taxi, Cyber

Cabs, uh just the list keeps going on

and on and on. uh AI chips and all that.

How are they going to fund this?

>> Well, we've got 44 billion in the

coffer. So, it's not as if we have no

money. They they will and and this is

continuing. This is an acceleration of

cash of cash producing machine. So, I'm

I'm not worried about how to fund it.

I'm just worried how they're going to

balance it every quarter so that there

is still some free cash flow because I

think that is important for um for the

whole evolution of financials. But even

if it would not be, we will explain it

why why it won't be. I just feel like at

the moment they're doing an extremely

good job and and Larry explained it

perfectly well. I think they needed more

capex in the last couple of weeks of uh

2025 than anticipated which allowed the

free cash flow to be actually higher

than we all thought. I think what they

are aiming for is just a landing around

zero which is perfectly fine if you

explain it with capital expenditure.

It's not it's it's actually great,

right? But it's um how well they manage

it and couldn't have been managed.

>> I just want to put something in

perspective.

>> I just read that Meta plan $135 billion

of capex in 2026

versus what Tesla's spending.

That is wild. I mean I mean how much how

much is XI Larry? How much is XI spent

to date to get where they are?

>> Well, it's about 80 billion to date,

right? Yeah. And and and and meta is

nowhere near. We're

>> ex

careful though.

>> Okay. We're hurting Nick.

>> Yeah. Yeah. You got your calls. I mean,

>> no.

>> I would argue no one's making more money

in AI than Meta right now.

>> Google is No, Meta.

I I would wager against that, but we

>> Who would ever use Well, I think they're

using it, aren't they?

>> Advertisers

>> customer advertising method. Yeah.

>> Meta's crushing Google right now when it

comes to

>> All right. All right. Right.

>> Anyway, guys, I want to go I want to

tell you one thing.

So, we hit a all-time record with energy

deliveries up 15% on last quarter, which

was a record. This is a record quarter

but energy revenue is up 20%. This is

huge news because energy margins are

continuing to increase rather than

reduce which

>> over 30% now

>> over no I'm saying the the total margin

is up by 20%.

>> Okay. So I mean it's it's really good

news on the energy front and I was

really worried about the energy margins

but it's really good news.

>> Just to add to that Larry you know in

this first wave of all this AI

infrastructure start off with Nvidia

right and you know some of the other

ancillary chip companies also benefited

maybe even some of the servers like the

super micro Dell HP etc because Nvidia

chips have to be go somewhere. Um, but

now as we get into this next

layer, right, that's where you're seeing

like Micron, right? The memory chip

companies that don't have enough supply

to fill the demand. It's it's insane.

And energy energy is that other part of

it, too. So, this can just continue,

right? It always starts off with the

hardware and it slowly gets out before

we even get to the software layer. So,

it's it's it can get it's going to get

nutty. I think

>> it is. and they're talking about

expanding by 50% their production next

year. So, I mean, energy is really

plugging along pretty darn well. I I

expect we going to hear news of another

factory

uh in Europe coming, you know, a build

out of

>> energy factory.

>> Yeah, a build out of

>> I think we should speculate. I think we

should speculate in which country.

>> It's going to be in Berlin. It's going

to be in Berlin.

>> Oh, you think they will expand? They

will expand.

>> Oh, yeah. Absolutely. So, absolutely.

>> They're done with Germany.

>> No, they're not.

>> Well, I think it's gonna be Italy. I

think it's going to be I was going to

say Italy, too.

>> It's going to be Germany. It's going to

be Germany. They're going to they're

already building it. And and it's going

to be in Germany. They've got they've

got the space, they've got the

production, they've got the people,

they've got everything.

>> I mean, I can tell you greenhide

politics. I think we've had enough.

>> It doesn't matter anymore.

>> Yeah. Poland would be great. No, it's

going to happen in Germany.

>> Poland, you got brilliant people.

>> Politics align or be more less

regulatory as close to Berlin.

>> It could be Hungary as well.

>> 100% aligned with you, but the the

capital investment would be staggering

compared to the marginal capital

investment in Germany. And they're

already making fairly solid profits in

Germany. They're very, very happy with

their German. I mean, Germany is

supplying all of Europe and except for

certain models, but but they're very

happy with the German margins and

they're very happy with German

production. So, don't underestimate it.

You're listening to the news, but you're

not seeing the the real picture.

>> Okay.

>> Hey, one more thing.

>> News I I listen to, by the way.

>> Uh Jeff, let's bring you back in. Take a

look at this product. Is this the first

time we've seen this sentence?

Future monetization opportunities via

services powered by AR AI software.

>> Yeah, this is just saying that the the

model is changing

uh and the mo the sources of revenue and

the sources of margin are changing. This

is what this is saying. And there's

going to be more of a transition to this

and less of a focus on, you know, us

waiting, you know, and and nervously by

the production numbers every single

quarter. There's going to be it's going

to be more of the sources of revenue and

gross margin going to come from FSD,

supervised, unsupervised, and robo

taxiing.

By the way, there's another comment in

the deck about there being, and we've

talked about this a lot on the show, a

transition in their go to market model

of of fleet of having units available

for traditional sales and for for fleet

operations. This is Tesla telling you

that their business model to sell cars

is changing and it's not just going to

be build to order, go to the website,

order a car. that'll still be available.

There'll be cars in inventory you can

still buy, but now there's going to be

this, hey, we're going to be we're going

to be building vehicles and pushing them

into our fleet.

>> Yeah, eerily quiet.

I'm reading the deck again.

>> Well, I got an observation that's I

think kind of interesting.

>> Um, Herbert, could you uh zoom in on

Larry? Larry, have you been consulting

with uh Mark Zuckerberg stylist? You

look fly right now. You look good. Oh,

can black shirt.

What are you doing? You're married

little kid.

>> Larry smiling for the very first time. I

do shows with them twice a year week and

a smile.

>> I'm preparing for my uh 80th birthday.

>> Let's go.

>> You're doing well. And so this is the

new office lamp or what what is this

whole thing in the background? Tell us a

little bit about this.

>> Well, I bought JetBlue Airways. So this

is my office.

>> So this is your new office and this is a

real lamp or what is it on on top of

your I mean crown? It's it's my crown.

>> It's your crown. Okay.

>> Is it an airline?

It's it's the JetBlue lounge. And you

know,

>> I've just been on a 7-hour flight from

London and I've got a five a fivehour

layover and flight.

>> Look at those comments. My gosh.

>> Yeah.

>> You're welcome, guys.

>> Thanks, Nick.

>> Everybody loves you. Damn, Lord.

>> I love everybody. I I I met up with a

whole bunch of followers in in London.

That was that was so fun. There,

>> you know, the guys in in the UK are so

hungry for FSD. You've no idea. I mean,

they're jonesing like crazy. And they're

really keep I mean, they know as much as

we do. They're they're right up there,

you know. It's amazing.

>> Did you see that Sweden allowed today?

The FS testing.

Yeah,

>> it is coming. It's

>> not Stockholm, but right next to

Stockholm,

>> right? And then the the other thing I

just want to point out while we have a

big audience today is my pinned post

allows you to automatically send emails

very easy. We really prepared it as easy

as possible to all the different

European regulators in all the different

countries and we're actually adding some

more as they come along. So those are

the right addresses, email addresses.

All it takes is for you to either use

the information and do it yourself or

use that little tool that Jeffrey um not

our Jeffrey here in in California

developed where you can automate it all

and just put in your name and which

which agency you want to write in and

off it goes. So please use that because

the pressure is building up. Elon said a

couple of days ago Europe is usually on

you know a decision making process in

about a month. So they we need to to

help as much as we can, please.

>> This one here, right?

>> Exactly. The pinned one. That's exactly

it. And that the whole instructions is

there. It really shouldn't take you more

than two to three minutes if you use the

full set. And if you want to do it

yourself, it takes you maybe five

minutes. But and and no information goes

back to us. It's just for you to be able

to do it in a very easy manner. Okay.

That is for my European friends, please.

>> Got a quick Yeah, great job. I've got a

quick story actually regarding European

friends which is interesting and some

data around robo taxi and safety and

regulations if you want to kill some

dead air. Herbert.

>> Uh,

>> it

do it.

>> Is that it? Oh, no.

>> No, no. Slide three to begin. Uh, first

of all, I just want to touch on this

real briefly. You you may have shared it

before, but I think it's a very

interesting pattern here developing.

First of all, you got quarter over

quarter or whatever chasing Uber prices.

You got Uber prices chasing Whimo

prices. And Whimo has stopped their

growth. So now they're beginning to cut

prices ever so slightly. And of course

Tesla is less than half or less than all

of them combined. That's the first

little story. Second piece, speaking of

Europeans, Alexandra, Europeans are

stacking record volume of US st stocks.

A lot of them are MAG 7. We don't know

exactly places like Denmark, um, France,

Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden,

UK. They are all buying a lot of US

stocks. They've given up on investing in

local stocks. of those interesting

lobbying update very important for if

anybody's input on this a lot of people

are asking why doesn't Tesla lobby the

biggest lobbyer here is again Meta then

Amazon then Google then Microsoft maybe

is that because Elon has an inside seat

at the table and doesn't need to and

then one other thing is current safety

streak for Tesla miles no incident is at

389,160

the average crash that's covered by

police and insurance for a driver is

every 300 100,000 mi, which is

approximately every 30 years for a

human. And now, so far, the current

streak has beaten the human safety level

for robo taxi alone. But remember, if

they do so much as get a little praying

against a fire hydrant, that's reported.

Whereas the human reports and human

insurance claims tend to be very severe.

A lot of people drive into ditches,

crash into walls and parking lots, and

never file a claim. So, you never even

hear about it. And fin Well, that was

it. Uh, one other thing. I have one

other thing. Uh, slide five. Did I cover

it already? Oh, hold on a second.

This one. Um, uh, AI, this DOT law, the

Department of Transportation. Uh, this

might be because the influence Elon has

with the government. They're now trying

to streamline the regulations from a

federal perspective for the Department

of Transportation, which could be a big

tailwind for Tesla and FSD. Thoughts?

announcing

>> a lot of stuff there.

>> Yeah, this this is the big one. I mean,

uh the conversation still keeps popping

up if the laws aren't approved in time

because it looks like that Tesla's cyber

cow production is on its way this year

and you saw the numbers that they're

talking about. This needs to catch up. I

mean, I think 94,000 95,000 is enough

for the government for one year. Then

they'll need to increase it by next

year, but they need to approve that by

this year.

>> Yeah. But this covers everything like no

steering wheel, no pedals, no safety

monitors, etc. This could be huge. But

wasn't there a falling out between Tom

Duffy, the head of DOT and Elon Musk?

>> Am I correct?

>> N I mean,

>> yes, but not really.

>> In in political, sure, there was a

fallout between Elon and Trump in June,

and now they're having dinner together.

I I think it's it's one of those things

that they'll figure it out in

>> Yeah. Once Trump and Elon make friends,

then all the cabinet members are

automatically friendly towards Elon. I

hate to say it, but I think that's just

the

>> Yeah,

>> the way. Any comments on the safety, the

safety streak? No incident.

>> This is big. Nobody cares.

>> Can I ask a question related to this?

>> Yeah.

Am I crazy or did someone say they saw

in the debt because I'm like looking

everywhere for it that we have over a

million subscriptions to FSD?

>> Did someone say that?

>> That's correct.

>> What the hell is that?

>> I can't find this.

>> 1.1 million.

>> It's written clearly. It's a bullet.

>> There's also another bullet which they

may they may have misspoken because in

the deck when you do the math it's about

38% increase year-over-year. But then

they say monthly subscriptions to FSE

supervised continue to grow sequentially

and more than doubled in 2025. So I

think what they're saying here breaking

it down in case people are confused,

there's the monthly subscriptions which

have doubled. The $8,000 one-time hit

hasn't.

And that's maybe why they're also going

to the monthly subscription. So, for the

people confused about the 38% increase

and the 50% increase, that's probably

where that comes from. Could I be wrong?

>> Am I talking to myself?

>> Jeff, you said page six.

>> Yeah, page six. In the middle of the

table, it says active FD subscriptions.

>> It's gone up 10% the last three

quarters, every quarter, quarter over

quarter. Oh gosh, I'm freaking blind

here. Now I see it.

>> Wow.

>> That's a That's actually a big move.

>> Yeah. Did Did they have this last

quarter? I don't remember.

>> The first time.

>> Okay. So, I'm not crazy. I

>> The whole the whole presentation

changed. I actually had a message from

Travis saying, "How do you like the new

presentation?" So, let's tell him. I

mean, I love it. I think there's so much

more information than there was ever

before.

>> Couldn't agree more. And to me, this

plus the expansion of the cities, that's

the biggest thing in this deck. Yeah, I

think it's I think it's pretty clear.

It's built around the comp plan as well,

so people can track milestones. Could

that be correct?

>> Look at look at this, Jeff. Days of

supply of inventory 15. That is correct.

>> So low. Jeez.

>> That's what Jeff was talking about.

Like, of course, you're going to have

good quarter good numbers when when you

see that is what Jeff was saying

earlier.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. But it looks like they are

preparing to ramp a lot of product

because their their factory inventory is

up over 20%. quarteron quarter. So

that's interesting. That's a thing to

keep an eye on. That's one that's one

you have to watch multiple quarters in a

row to see if there's kind of a story or

not. But anyway, if I were an analyst,

I' i'd asked about, okay, what's going

on with inventory? What what's

happening? But their finished goods

inventory is in great shape. So it's not

like you have some issue up and down the

whole chain. And I think they're

actually just they're preparing for

ramp.

>> I just want to test the sound system.

This is an old uh earnings call that

they had. If I play it, can you guys

hear the sound playing?

>> Yes, we hear it.

>> Okay, good. Thank you.

>> So, we'll be following this closely.

>> I have to say that this earnings call,

this earnings report

is about as good as we could possibly

have anticipated. I don't think anybody

could have anticipated

>> the all of it good. I mean there isn't

there isn't a single

>> item here that is not really I mean even

order G gross margins are quite

remarkable actually.

>> You have to listen to CNBS with emphasis

on the BS. Revenue fell for the third

time in three quarters and sales fell

for the full year declined for the first

time on record. Net income plunged 61%

from a year ago in the quarter.

Operating expenses jumped 39. They say

nothing good. It's just negative.

>> To give credit though, for the first

time I was listening when the numbers

came out right away because Herbert

couldn't didn't pay his internet bill.

Um, Phil Labau did come on and he did

actually say they beat top and he he

actually had a positive lost for the

first time. I know. I'm just saying for

the first time I you know sometimes

and Kramer was not wrong for the first

time. So I'm just saying like we got to

give

>> but what's very interesting is what they

do in the broadcast and what they is

like two completely different things

because this woman who does the Tesla

beat is just so I mean she's incredible.

She's incred Laura Colodney. I bet you

that was a Laura Coladney piece. She is

terrible. Terrible. I hope she sues me

because, you know, I'd love to go to

court with her. Love to do it.

>> Discovery.

Discovery.

>> Yeah.

>> So, in about a half an hour, about uh

2:30, so at about 35 minutes from now,

they will do the live stream. We'll do

that. We've confirmed that we have got

it uh ready to go.

Okay. Couple of other interesting things

I think are worth discussing. Well, if

we finish the safety score, nobody seems

impressed with that. I I personally was.

>> It's very impressive. No, it it's very

impressive. It

>> I don't find a single thing. There's

energy. There's like photos. There's

It's just amazing.

>> This is like

how good how good does it get?

>> Yeah. The other thing uh this very

interesting options action a lot of

people I've been watching whoever it is

there some trader out there and they

keep on buying uh like the 990 calls for

the end of the year for December 2026

and somebody today made a played a

blinder. Somebody bought about I think

it was

12.

>> Are you showing your screen? Are you

sharing?

>> Uh slide number 12. I do have a scrape

of this is the option action.

This one uh somebody very cleverly with

a lot of insight. So this you can always

get a good feel for how bullish the

market is by analyzing what people do an

hour before the earnings call. Somebody

went in and bought 14,200 of the 460

calls. 12,000 and these are for January.

These are in like like two days. as

somebody bought the 500s

for the 12,000 contracts, the 432.5s

100, you know, 14,000 contracts, 430s,

22,000 contracts. That was a nice money

maker today. That was very interesting.

>> But but you can't see the other side of

it. You can't see the other side.

>> I look at the puts, too. I look at the

putts, too. No, the point is somebody's

actually bought in.

>> But how do you know someone bought those

calls and they didn't sell them?

>> Yeah. Ei either way, the volume is

extremely high and extremely skewed to

the bullish side. So people there's no

there's no way people would sell that

number of calls before an earnings call

with the sentiment so low. I think

people are playing very shortterm calls

to the upside. So I see this in crypto

all the time as well and other places,

but it just seemed very bullish to me

because the skew was very high out of

the money. That's the way I normally

read it and it works pretty well.

>> I think it it may be a general it may be

a significant pointer in general terms,

but it's very hard to tell each you know

what each trade really means. Very hard

when there's when there's hours left on

the clock and people are buying $30 out

of the money. Uh it's

>> that's just I don't know. I I think

that's like just buying a lottery

ticket. That's

>> Oh, it is. It's very risky. But maybe

>> But what I'm saying is it's not like

it's I I don't see that as signal of

anything. I just see that someone's just

taking a shot.

>> But my point is you don't see you don't

know if there's another side of that

trade.

>> There's always another side. So if

somebody's buying them, the market maker

has to fulfill it. If somebody's

>> trade that's one leg of a trade.

>> Yes. Exactly.

>> That of that trader's trade, not

somebody else's.

>> Yes. Yeah.

>> So, yeah. So, for all you know, it's an

iron condor or a put or a call spread

and you don't know. So, like really it's

not as bullish as you think it is.

>> Right. Right.

But then you would see over then you

would see the only one part you see you

can look at the Nick you can look at the

overall sentiment right is the overall

sentiment bullish or or so

>> exactly

>> I think yeah James

>> I think this is a good summary right

Larry you like to look at this all the

time here's what happened to revenue it

decreased 3% year-over-year

but uh this is why decrease in vehicle

deliveries which everybody was expecting

lower regulatory credit revenue, but

there was a growth in energy, growth in

services, positive uh FX impact, growth

in other automotive sales, partly driven

by an increase in FSE subscriptions.

That's great. Higher average selling

price. Whoa, that's unexpected.

>> And wow,

>> inclusive of mixed impact. And then

profitability increase in SPC and

restructuring increase in operating

expenses higher average cost per vehicle

due to lower fixed cost absorption for

certain models and increase in tariffs.

H decrease in vehicle deliveries of

course lower regatory credit revenue but

then there was higher average gross

profit. Oh what that's interest growth

in energy growth in services growth in

others. So that's a good way to explain

what happened.

>> Well, the the FSD has a huge impact on

the ASP. Also, the refreshed

>> Juniper, etc. It's a more valuable car,

and they could do more with the same

production lines, etc. So, that's all

very clear, but that goes directly to

this FSD tailwind, which I think will be

a huge boost for 2026.

>> Yeah, you're absolutely right. It hasn't

begun. I think we're going to see a very

very significant uh year this year on

FSD tailwind regardless of all the other

all the other potential catalysts. I

think that the growth in FSD revenue is

going to come as a big shock to a lot of

people.

>> Yeah. Q1 FOMO as well. The $8,000 deal

will be will help Q1, which is actually

timely because Q1 always sucks. It's

always a dead quarter. So that's going

to help. Yeah.

>> So, they announced there's 1.1 million

FSE subscriptions today. Elon needs to

get to

>> 10 10 million. Yeah.

>> What's what are your predictions, guys,

given where how good FSD is now, how

good it's going to be

>> before the end of next year?

>> By the end, but let's say by the end of

this year,

>> what do you think the uptake is going to

be? If it's 1.1 as of Q4,

>> that's just north that's just North

America.

four million

>> in Korea now too

>> South Korea has it

>> and they they're tech forward so they'll

buy a lot of it

>> it's not a lot of vehicles

>> it's mainly North America then yeah

right South Korea and in Australia so if

there's a big EU approval as Larry was

talking about you'll see a big flood

come in there's a big China approval

you'll see them come in but I like that

I like that this this 10% growth

quarteron quarter that we're just seeing

uh with a very low approval uh in terms

of number of countries. That's a that's

a promising sign. The other thing I

don't I I've always talked about FSD

tracker and how I don't like it. Uh but

one thing it is good for is looking at

relative data now that you build a suite

up over FSD version 12, 13, and 14 if

they're measuring things relatively

consistently. And what it shows is

basically going from 13 to 14 FSD 13 to

14. There's almost a 10x improvement in

the rate of disengagements both critical

and non-critical.

That's I mean this is something that all

the bears go to. This is something that

a lot of the analysts site in their

reports and FSD14 is showing an 8 to 10x

improvement in that. I think that's

that's also an interesting data point.

That's the one thing you can probably

actually use it for.

>> Thanks, Jeeoff.

>> Okay, so given um the report that we saw

dropped, what are were predictions of

what they might say about robo taxi?

They listed out the about nine states or

nine cities uh that they listed out or

they're going to roll out or are they

going to say anything more other than

what they've shared here?

If I'm an analyst on the call, I'm going

to ask you said you you said 8 to 10

cities by the end of 2025

and now you're saying by mid 2026, what

ch it's okay. I mean, I get what if I

what changed and what gives you greater

confidence now that you're going to hit

this June milestone? I hope somehow that

comes up or hope they just relate like

this is why we think we're hitting this.

This is this is this is why this is why

we're competent.

>> I like that.

Yeah, I mean I

>> in the last quarter in the last quarter

FSD miles tripled

tripled. So if you multiply FSD miles,

not sorry, robo taxi miles, robo taxi

miles tripled. If you triple every

quarter, what do you get to at the end

of this year?

I mean,

tripling a quarter is a hell of a

multiple. A hell of a multiple.

I mean, Herbert, to answer your question

though, I hope I hope they address like

the the ramp like even if it's just in

Austin, like okay, the other cities like

Jeff, I I I love the question because

that's my curiosity as well. But okay,

well, you're in Austin. What's the rate

of scaling there? Like what's going on

there? You know, you have now some robo

taxis without supervision. Does that

mean you're good or is that just still

testing? You know, is this where you

start to slowly add more of those or is

this still just testing out the safety

and making sure that everything's good?

Like how should we think about that?

>> Yeah,

agreed.

I I think there needs to be some sort of

near-term tangible milestones

with robo taxi. I I think if you're

coming from the tech world and you

understand that Tesla's doing something

that's never been done before with

vision, with AI, they're doing a real

scale play on on physical real world AI.

I've always thought there'd be a 30 to

60 day window around some of these

promises and milestones and I so I get

it. But the 99.99%

of the people that invest or follow the

company won't and the media certainly

won't. So just explaining what's

different. Uh and what what are they

seeing? I mean I I I think it's

something interesting this this

driverless robo taxi in Austin that is

probably on a release that we have none

of us have ever experienced. And what

gave them that kind of confidence to do

that? And when would we see that?

>> Jeeoff, I think you I think they're

they're putting onto this report the

mile the

the measure that they're going to give

us and these miles driven if aerobaxi

miles driven. I think once they've used

a graph, they generally stick to that

format. So I think it's miles driven on

a quarterly basis. We're going to see

and that's

I think that's the measure they're going

to use

tax.

>> See a goal line if I you know if you're

running an operation and and somebody

gets comes to you in a meeting and

presents a chart without a goal line.

>> So I I'm I'm agreeing with you but I

think the goal line is going to be miles

driven. I think the goal line is going

to align with this chart.

>> They should put it on the chart. Yeah.

>> Well, I think they'll first speak to it

at the meeting. I'm hoping they speak to

this at the meeting and then that's

that's the measure we we use going

forward. Generally, at the meeting, they

give you how we should think about the

future.

Oh, he's frozen.

Yeah, I get it. I think it's hard. It's

difficult. I agree with you, Larry.

Ladies and gent

sit around day and how many miles driven

is the entire world driving every day. I

think the way people think is number of

cities, number of vehicles and they're

just trying to understand more of these

tangible milestones. And again, this

this chart could shift

>> for the next three meetings in a row if

they don't lock in it with a goal line.

If you look at Arc Invest's analysis and

you look at some of the and new streets

analysis, it all it all uh hinges on

miles driven and total miles. I I don't

think it's number of cities and I don't

think it's, you know, number of I I just

think it's miles driven. I think that's

the

>> that's the metric that we're going to be

using going forward.

>> Yeah.

Hi sir.

>> Hey Larry. Did I miss something?

>> Yeah, you missed all the important

stuff.

>> I heard you guys. You guys covered it

nicely.

>> CERN was in the lab making charts. Got a

few charts for you.

>> How do you feel about the XAI news?

>> Um, it's a good it's good. It's, you

know, it's small. Does it move the

needle? I don't know. But

>> well, technically two billion with

approximately 230 billion valuation is

1% of XAI. Yeah.

>> Which is which is kind of substantial.

>> Sure.

>> Yeah.

>> It's not so much a needle mover for a

1.5 trillion company, but but I get it.

It's that's good.

>> But but it's a direction. It's it's a

start. Yeah.

>> I'm uh I'm trying to get your slides out

ready.

You were on the hamster wheel crunching

numbers.

>> I was.

>> What do you think the gross margin? That

was impressive.

>> Yeah, I've got some charts to cover

that. That was uh surprising to me that

it was so strong.

>> Yeah, but FSD is pure margin and mega

pack is high margin

and a lot of cars sold with the higher

ASP probably from bundling FSD has

probably driven a lot of that. would you

say

>> ASPs went up and uh the cost to make a

vehicle went down quite quite

considerably all things considered. So

if you look at the the revenues this

quarter uh if you just look at the red

which is autos I believe it's the 11th

highest quarter for the auto business.

So nothing to write home about right if

you were an auto analyst you look at

that and say okay we've had no growth

for years. If you look at the total

revenues of the company, right, all of

the bars, all of the colors, which is

energy, services, and other, plus the

red credits in blue, it's the sixth

highest quarter ever.

Okay. And then Herbert, if we flip to

the next line, next page, um, gross

profit.

>> Oo, wow.

>> It's the fourth highest gross profit in

company in company history. Maybe maybe

tied for fourth. It's close to to Q3 of

2022. Can't quite tell which one's

higher, but it's in that range, fourth

or fifth,

right? So, certainly the other

businesses are picking up some slack.

Uh, energy, of course, we know that

story. The services and other uh

businesses also uh in Q3 showed some

strong life in Q4 continues to be

strong. So, it seems to have turned the

corner uh there on terms of

profitability.

And then if we look at uh margins

uh gross profit margin for the company

overall 20.2

um net margin

>> yeah that's the highest since 2022

correct?

>> Yeah that's that's nice right and net

margin uh 7 and operating margin 5.6.

Okay. And then if we look at uh auto

gross margins, if I'm a Wall Street auto

analyst, I'm actually feeling encouraged

today for the first time in a long time.

Um auto gross margins uh with reg

credits 21% without 18.6,

which again is the highest in what, two

years, two plus years

>> since co 2022. Yeah.

>> Right. I thought credits were going

away.

>> Yeah.

And then if we look at the business line

gross margins on the next page,

energy continues to be high. It's it's

dipped down a little bit, but Q4 last

year was a a dip down from Q3. And so

I'm not surprised to see Q4 dip down

this year and then probably a strong

recovery in Q1 as far as margins go for

energy.

>> Yeah, I had a theory on that, sir. And I

talked to Larry about that before. They

sold a lot of mega packs to XAI. Could

there have been some type of creative

transfer pricing with the sister company

to pressure down margins?

>> Although I think we saw this margin

decline, you know, in Q4 last year or

the prior year in 2024.

>> So there seems to be some, you know, Q4

something going on in Q4 that drives

that down a bit.

>> At some point tariffs have to come into

play here. There's really no more mixed

inventory of cells. The tariffs went up

on January 1. Uh so I mean the these

tariffs I think are 82% now on lithium

LFP cells and even if this you know this

LFP factories in a ramp in the US in

Nevada 7 gawatt hours I thought it'd be

10 by the way but has seven on there

those are going to be very high price

cells for the first year and it's going

to take them a year to get that factory

to scale. So I mean one interesting

question is what you know with tariffs

with you ramping up a brand new LP

factory and really only a fraction of

your capacity

how do you see the the impact of are you

going to raise prices on mega packs or

you just going to eat it in gross

margins

or have you become massively more

efficient year on year you found a way

to to swallow that?

>> Yeah.

Uh the blue line there is the uh auto

gross profit without red credits 18.6

and then uh services and other 8.8

down a little bit from Q3 but still very

strong relative to where it's been over

its its history.

And the next chart is for Jeff average

selling price versus the cost to make.

So significant decline in the cost to

make a Tesla down to 34,000 and change

and the ASP just over 41,000.

>> That's the lowest cost it's ever hit in

terms of the vehicle cost.

>> That's right.

>> It's amazing.

>> And then the difference between those

two is the uh the profitability of a

Tesla, the gross profit on the next page

uh widened to just over $7,000 per

vehicle.

So that's a nice uh multi-quarter

improvement. Now

>> is that is that FSD do you think

subscriptions?

>> Um it

>> or is that a separated or is that

separated from this profitability per

vehicle?

>> Well, I'm assuming it's part of these

numbers. I'm assuming FSD is part of

autos not service and other.

>> Do you think they'll break FSD out now

in terms of revenue start accounting for

it separately?

Yeah, it's a good question, Larry. Um,

certainly at some point robo taxi robo

taxi will be broke broken out. I'm not

sure.

>> Absolutely. Maybe FSD and robo taxi in a

separate line item.

>> And then finally, a brand new chart and

you guys have been talking about this is

active FSD subscriptions, which by the

way includes purchased FSD.

>> Yes.

Um but for the first time we've got some

data going back to Q4 of 2021.

>> Yeah. Well over a billion.

>> Yeah. And then we're over uh we're at

1.1 million subscriptions now.

>> I think it's the first time we're over a

million. Is that right?

>> Uh according to this they were at a

million in Q3.

>> Oh at a million. Okay.

>> Yeah.

I mean, yes, it looks great, but it's

also just 200,000 subscriptions in a

matter of one year from Q1 of 2025 to

Q4.

>> 300,000.

>> We we need to 300,000. We need to see

that go to millions. And that's what's

going to happen, I think, next year.

>> To look at it as a percentage of the

base. But yeah, I I would agree this is

what discoverability and all that all

that plays into. But you 300k on a base

of 800k

is huge growth.

>> Wait, why is it a base of 800k? Is this

just the US? Because you're again just

US and South Korea is all you're doing.

>> Mhm.

>> Well, you jump from 800k to 1.2 million.

I mean, in four quarters.

>> Yeah, but he's saying a base of 800k,

meaning that's there's only Well, how

many cars are you saying, Jeff, is

eligible for

>> F? The graph. It says Q, it says Q4 2024

is at there 800k subscriptions and now

they're at 1.1.

>> So you're talking what? 40 38 40%

growth.

>> Oh

of of a SAS business. So this is your

SAS business and it's growing 38 40%. I

think you're feeling pretty good. I

would agree with you. Um I would agree

with you. I but this I think this this

blows out with country expansion,

continent expansion and really is Tesla

going to take you know take the veil off

of this and actually tell people about

it

and by the way so good

>> the base number Jeff in Q4 of 2024 might

have been under 800,000 because they're

just showing one decimal point here

could have been 755,000 and it rounds up

to point8

>> I think I think s another good ratio

would be the percentage penetration of

US cars,

>> which is about just under 4 million if

I'm not mistaken.

>> And and that's 25%.

Growing, maybe even higher.

>> Yeah, that's a good good point. Um, you

can bet that I'll make a chart that

shows that.

>> Y,

>> but that's encouraging. If we're already

at 25% of US vehicles,

>> a lot of a lot of cars are old. If you