Mega Bullish.

oh boy we's going bullish okay maybe not

but we are going to cover a bullish

piece here this is fascinating I

actually just got back to the studio

from an event it was a JP Morgan private

wealth bank event uh a great event uh

small group and we just talked about

election the economy povs on recession

and I want to give you their notes now

you already know

a lot of my opinions and I'll tell you

more about my opinions and sort of my

thoughts on this towards the end but

what I'd like to do is start with these

JP Morgan notes this is what they're

talking about over at JP Morgan uh in in

addition to that I'd like to touch on uh

the quickly where the FED sits with

positioning at this point right now

we're sitting at just a

14% chance of having a 50 basis point

cut which basically implies that the

odds of a 50 are pretty much dead mostly

because of that slightly hotter core CPI

number that came out this morning which

I mean between you and me we we know

this is ridiculous because when you

actually look under the hood you're like

oh come on man y'all going to slow down

rate Cuts cuz you're lagging owner's

equivalent rent is you know surprise

surprise lagging and is showing that

rents are going up .5% on a

month-over-month basis which annualize

out to like 6% which is like twice your

normal preco average that's not good and

if that's the reason you're going to

slow down Cuts fine but hopefully you

don't push this into a recession because

you look at Zillow War Apartments list

and those rents are indicating

Nationwide we're seeing rents decline

not increase on both a month over month

and a year-over-year basis but you know

those are current rents and owner's

equivalent rents look at what

everybody's current rents are not just

new leases so it's a little misleading

anyway that said let's listen to what

JPM thinks now that we got CPI out of

the way note we are almost back to an

inverted yield curve we were literally

positive six points now we're less than

one point positive on the inversion

which is not great usually once you get

the big pop up like the 50 BP jump up

that's when you go into a recessionary

environment but when you see that yield

curve going back to inverted it's

actually usually bullish for stocks and

so we'll touch on the stock market a

little bit later in this video but let's

talk about their bullishness first

election wise they think uh that uh

Harris has a cash Advantage raising over

$360 million in August uh compared to

Donald Trump's 170 but because she's

been mounting the shortest presidential

campaign ever in history it's a lot of

Harris enthusiasm in the near term that

might not translate to a sweep even if

she he wins or even if Trump wins in

other words they basically think we're

probably going to end up with a split

Senate uh or congress basically right or

or party control to where potentially if

you have a trump presidency the

Democrats have either the house or the

senate or if you have a Kala presidency

you have either a Republican senate or

house the benefit to financial markets

for this is with Trump maybe you don't

end up in a trade War see JP Morgan's

real concern is that if Trump implements

some of his tariff ideas we could see

CPI go up by 2% and GDP go down by 1%

and therefore it could shock the market

because you're sending a massive

stagflationary signal by igniting a

trade War potentially with many

countries throughout the world now they

think a split Congress would prevent

that and even if you have a sweep you're

going to have barely a sweep in the

house or Senate like back to 50/50 or

you know 218 222 in the house to where

you only need to lose like one or two

people and then any kind of like trade

War legislation is dead the same is true

on the KLA side so on the Harris and KLA

side same person here K Harris side on

the K Harris side you have this

potential uh that uh you get more uh

energy support it's one of the reasons

you've seen a little bit of a tick up in

end phase today uh maybe you get more

support for transfer payments bullish

potentially for infrastructure one of

the reasons you might be seeing uh

Nvidia up and some of the infrastructure

plays up very common uh but it's all

especially since djt you know Trump back

is down like 15% that could be because

of the lockup events coming due soon but

it's also likely just the market saying

okay how would we position for more of a

uh Harris presidency okay energy stocks

up

and uh you know djt down and maybe

Nvidia up because of infrastructure

spending and Chip sack spending right

Biden kind of spending that is very

normal after a debate like yesterday but

I expect that to normalize and us to see

a lot more volatility as we get closer

to the election so I don't think that

today's specific trend is going to keep

going in the long term I think you'll

get a lot more volatility as we get a

lot closer to the election which is Norm

especially since corporate BuyBacks dry

up within about one week and you'll be

post fed meeting but anyway so they

think you'll have a split presidency in

terms of control so they see limited

risk when it comes to legislation really

damaging markets that said uh they do

think that the market is pretty much

saying inflation is no longer an issue

that the Market's gotten to the point

where it's like look we just really just

care about the labor market right now

and they still see what they're seeing

as labor hoarding and they're a bank

right so they think that labor should

stabilize at about a 45% unemployment

rate that yes we've triggered the S rule

yes we're at 4.2 now we were at 4.3 last

month they think we're going to

stabilize at 4 and a half once we get a

little bit more of this unwinding done

over the next few months and that they

think will be uh in line with a soft

Landing now they do argue that if the

unemployment rate goes to

5% it's probably going to go to six so

they do say like we're right now they're

only pricing in a 25 to 30% chance of

recession they kind of imply they're

this on this teeter totter we like uh

but if the FED goes too slow then

they're going to push us into a

recession which actually is where I sit

as well I think that the CPI data we got

this morning is unfortunately going to

lead the Federal Reserve to go too slow

so the FED goes too slow and then what

do you get well then you get not just

the unwind of Labor hoarding but a

layoff cycle see if you read the FED

beige book what you'll find is that

there aren't a lot of companies that are

doing layoffs now but what I believe is

that a lot of these companies are On The

Fringe In other words where one shock we

one panic away from layoffs and that's

what really deepens the panic Panic so I

expect that we have a lot of volatility

between now and the election that

volatility could lead to a market

correction that market correction could

lead to that boom layoffs boom you're in

a

recession that's the concern that I'm

hedging myself for those of you in the

course member live stream know that I'm

buying the dip when there are dips on my

hedge play it's uh about to be a

multi-million doll hedge play and uh if

you haven't taken advantage of The Flash

sale yet make sure you join it go to

meetkevin.com you get lifetime access so

if I have a crazy multi-million dollar

hedge playay three years from now and

you're like all right I want to see what

this is you've paid for Access forever

so go check it out go to meetkevin.com

the uh uh price will be going up

tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. so we're getting

to where it's uh you know we're getting

close to where it's going up and if you

have questions you can email us at staff

meetkevin.com so let's keep going on

with this JP Morgan argument so they

believe that you know layoffs are still

low they're looking at warn data jolts

data Challenger data this is true

they're absolutely right layoffs are

still low I just think it flips fast

right with volatility One Market

correction away and you flip over again

I'm trying to show you the contrast

between my opinions and theirs they say

that right now they're buyers of the dip

they're a big fan of buying the dip they

were buying the dip in early August and

they think we should be buying the dip

right now as well and if there's more

volatility they're a big fan of buying

the dip which is f fine uh they do argue

though we do have valuation risk and

they actually think companies like

Nvidia are going to be range bound

between 110 and 130 now Nvidia is doing

great today and it's probably because of

chips sack Harris kind of uh activity

and I want you to just see the technical

bounce on it I have a line at 10808 and

look at that nearly perfect bounce with

a straight up action on Nvidia reallyred

in it's screaming chips sock money baby

so they believe not only in labor

hoarding but they do believe that Tech

is overplayed right now that a lot of

the tech valuations are just too high

and while they don't prefer small caps

because of the risk of micro recessions

like cyclical recessions taking them out

they like midcaps and

homebuilders now I don't blame them for

liking homebuilders homebuilders is a

good one uh I actually think like at

some point in the future I want house

hack to be a home builder that's long

term you know right now we're absolutely

killing it I mean we're having our wedge

deals verified by uh appraisers and the

appraisers are looking going yep those

look like some pretty sexy wedge deals

and so some of the things I mean I was

just looking at the sheet the other day

I'll give you a quick little sample here

I think I have it handy here I was

looking at the sheet and I'm like this

is freaking awesome this is great like

what we thought we were pulling off we

are uh and uh yeah here we go here uh so

we've got here's one that's uh what is

this we acquired it for $936,000 put 61k

in appraised at$

1.38 million well dang that's almost

like a $400,000 wedge almost right uh

you know here's uh here's another one we

bought a million dooll one put 77 in

appraised at

1.32 okay how about a cheaper one here's

one we bought at 550 put 94k in so we're

into it for about uh 650 boom $85,000

appraisal $105,000 which over and over

and over again on our deals here's one

that we bought because a seller was

panicking $320,000 purchase renovation

$1800 didn't really have to do anything

they were just panicking $455

appraisal those are the kind of things

that I do when I fly around and I look

for real estate okay myself and the team

we like to do this stuff we like real

estate so I actually agree with them on

the home builders I think uh and they

also acknowledged that there has been

overbuilding what they said in Austin

Dallas and parts of Florida that has led

that real estate market to fall while

other parts of the country are really

just at all-time highs in real estate uh

and that this cycle because people have

really termed out their debt uh isn't a

real estate crisis cycle uh it's

potentially going to turn into a labor

cycle but uh you know that's obviously

what they think the FED has plenty of

room to act on they do believe that the

Federal Reserve is behind the curve uh

and so that does still make me nervous

that realization like it's going to take

some kind of shock and realization and

that's where I think my hedge play is

going to go from a hedge play to a

profit printer like when the FED finally

wakes up and realizes they're behind the

curve and we get that like oh

moment from the FED I think we're just

going to freaking print

money that's also why I'm willing to put

millions of dollars into the train but

anyway so uh again go to meet kevin.com

coupon expires 6 tomorrow they think um

these these are not going to be like

Obamacare uh sweep days where the

Democrats have like a a large margin

even if they win very small margins even

if they sweep so you'll kind of have

issues like you did where you know it

takes one Senator or one representative

to

flip uh they are believers that uh gen Z

is very concerned about housing afford

ility and that might wake the fed up a

little bit as well to try to get some of

these rates down they also you know

acknowledged I asked them I go hey you

know what's going on with like Ally Bank

you know why are they writing down their

auto loans what's going on uh you know

even JP Morgan your ceoo yesterday

talked about forecast for lower net

interest margin and what's going on with

these consumer defaults what's going on

with Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs you

know how they did the apple card the

debt for the Apple card well uh I was

researching this yesterday and a gold

Goldman Sachs has uh let's see where was

it here it is Goldman Sachs is taking a

potentially a 400 million loss on debt

they're acquiring from the GM

portfolio uh and that's because Barclays

who's trying to buy it is realizing that

the underwriting Goldman did sucks and

now they're asking basically for credits

uh and trying to get discounts on that

uh that credit uh portfolio Goldman I

guess was chasing people off of Credit

Karma I guess people on Credit Karma

potentially lower credit score is what

they're arguing they're they're probably

going to take a loss on their apple card

program as well and the JP Morgan guy

you know he was suggesting that it's

probably because underwriting standards

really got pretty loose and so you're

going to kind of keep seeing smaller

Banks smaller lenders smaller companies

having issues because of lack

underwriting standards that happened you

know in 2022 or

2021 or 2020 and that's actually

interesting because if you think about

it you know if nobody was able to be

late on Al loone then do people's

credits potentially sit artificially

high today and now you're getting

discovery of oh what we thought was a

750 credit score borrower is actually

like a 650 or or a 550 borrower you know

because they were like so I wrote down

FICO misleading in my notes I was taking

notes of my phone uh so that was very

interesting a period of relaxed

underwriting he says but that's micro

not macro uh doesn't see uh he sees

maybe 10 to 20 banks that are at risk

for being acquired but doesn't see it as

like a banking crisis again or deposit

flight uh they actually like the idea

potentially of like selling puts on

Nvidia and like collecting yield on

Nvidia right now or or just even like

Bank preferred

stocks uh they uh see mortgage companies

doing really well once rates get to like

five to five and a half

and uh which which you know is priced in

to be probably in the

spring then uh just based on where the

FED curve is right now obviously that

could happen faster if the FED needs to

panic for whatever reason or does panic

and not so worried about geopolitical

although they are they do see a 10 to

15% upside in Gold uh and they do like

some utilities but not all they just do

think that the chip trade itself has run

most of its course and that even though

Nvidia is going to have these

fluctuations of 7% a day or whatever

most of it has run its course and it'll

probably be range Bound Again between

like 110 and 130 is what I wrote down uh

so something to keep an eye on there uh

that I think is useful okay then we have

let's see here oh definitely long tech

after like 3 to 5 years like or maybe

not necessarily after 3 to 5 years but

after the near-term bypasses and we kind

of start realizing some of the benefits

of the AI

uh plays and the cback spending that's

occurring so I found this really

fascinating and uh I have to say I

really resonated with the FICO argument

for the smaller delinquencies on autos

and credit cards so I absolutely agree

with JPM on this I still believe that we

are a market correction away from

massive layoffs I actually think we're

going to go through Labor deflation and

it's going to be very very painful

unless the FED acts faster and that's

why I'm making my hedge play is I think

the FED is convinced that inflation is

dead they understand the one thing

that's hot in the CPI report is a

lagging indicator and I think they're

going to come out guns blazing even if

they go 25 here they're going to in my

opinion they're either going to go 50

and hawkish or what's more likely after

today's CPI data 25

and super doish like really doish

because they're going to want to send a

signal to markets that we are going to

stop the labor bleeding and that might

actually give confidence to businesses

and to investors that okay all right fed

put baby don't fight the FED to the moon

and if election uncertainty unwinds then

like I've been saying between now and

the election could be a really good buy

the dip time I don't think that's now I

think there's still a good dip ahead of

us but I'm not sure yet when that's

going to be probably after buyback

window expires so sometime between fed

meeting and

Halloween so fed reacts really doish in

that time frame and you get a shock

that's probably the time to buy my take

in the meantime I'm hedged for soft

Landing or recession thank you so much

for watching I hope you appreciated bull

piece if you did make sure to share it

make sure to uh subscribe go grab your

courses on building the wealth your

wealth a link down below over at

meetkevin.com get in before 6 p.m.

tomorrow so you can see my discussions

as we you know come up with Theses or

share ideas or share transitions or

answer questions live with me make sure

to see that over at meek kevin.com and

uh hey seriously thank you as far as the

bull bear scale still on a 3-2 okay I'm

probably going to be sub five between

now and Halloween but if we get an

accommodated fed between now and

Halloween and we start unwinding

recession you know we start getting some

better

data it's going to be back to Nike

Swoosh baby and we've been talking about

that all right thanks y'all we'll see

you next one bye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin P there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

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