drunk market warning.. plz don watch **DEMONETIZED**

hey everyone me Kevin here in this

degenerate episode of beer with me Kevin

we are of course going to

have

C Stella

so

look we just got to be transparent

here I would love to be bullish

unfortunately I still think the FED is

substantially behind the curve and in

this video I want to give you a little

bit of side into why I believe that the

Federal Reserve is substantially behind

the curve first I I'm not here to

fearmonger you know I've got call

options on quite a few different

positions but there are positions that I

think do well in a soft Landing or

recession we talk about that in the

courses you know tonight there's a

coupon expiration at 11:59 p.m.

California time you already know that

meet kevin.com you know what to do

stocks and psych you all my alerts my

positioning everything you already know

that but I want to show you this take a

look at this this right here is a chart

uh that was screenshotted today of the

Atlanta Federal Reserve and it is a

chart of the GDP now real GDP estimate

okay so it's ticked down a little bit

but who cares this is very volatile

ignore this this is does not really

matter this is up and down all the time

big deal but instead I want you to pay

attention to that boring paragraph right

there that nobody

reads ah Stella and carrots

sh out right

there you notice anything special about

that

paragraph most people don't because they

bold the part they want you to

read the GDP model estimate for real GDP

growth in the third quarter is 2% and

then everybody stops reading but wait a

minute last week I complained that the

second sentence indicated a 0% growth

rate in something called Real gross

private

domestic investment growth now that's a

mouthful if you can remember that that

that would be the equivalent of shoving

one of these in your throat and not

dying I'm allergic to carrots by the way

but anyway Real gross domestic so in

other words inflation adjusted

investment in America and then the

growth rate of that okay decreased from

0% to - 2.4% now this is just one of the

things we're going to talk about in this

video but what is that somewhat signal

to us this what I did is I went back

past the oh that's gross bro

silverfish oh silver newspaper

gross bro you can't just attack me like

that what the hell that's

gross problem solved so what I did is I

went back to the uh post Korean uh War

so in other words the period after the

Korean War the reason I did that is

because domestic uh investment growth

generally declines in a war because you

uh redirect your factories towards uh

spending uh for military equipment so I

counted negative

real domestic uh investment growth which

is basically when the blue line goes

under that black line across the bar

there and they put a red arrow every

time it went negative around a recession

and a green arrow every time it went

negative not in a recession what you can

see here is that of the 14 times that it

went negative

78.6% of the time it went negative in a

recession just 21.4% of the time it

occurred not in a recession one of those

times was the mid 80s one of those times

was approximately 1967 one of those

times was approximately 2016 no though

2016 was barely negative at about

1.4% uh the mid 80s were negative down

to about 4% and as were the 1967 periods

so it's possible we could still be one

of these green arrows but let's just say

the odds are somewhat against us when

this number starts rolling over it's bad

but it's not just this number folks it's

frankly the Federal Reserve starting to

freak out and this morning when I when I

listen to JP speak

I'm like man am I the only one who

thinks this guy's freaking out right now

and no because later in the day take a

look at some of the stuff that we saw

from the uh in group or in we got major

downward revisions to us jobs pushes the

FED to act the weaker labor market

momentum that we noticed where we

thought we had 2.9 Million jobs and it

only ended up being 2.1 million jobs

thanks to the Bureau of Labor Statistics

revisions has pushed the Federal Reserve

basically into panic mode is their

argument absolute Panic now listen to

what they say here they say often times

the Bureau of Labor Statistics is

actually accurate but usually they're

only accurate during what are known as

steady times they're actually typically

inaccurate during the most important

times turning points in the cycle when

they tend to be

significantly wrong and they update

their forecast to suggest that they are

going to look for a 50 basis point cut

in September and then 25 in November in

December because they think the fed's

done effed up they think the fed's

screwed up and has messed up the jobs

market now that yes inflation is not a

problem anymore it's jobs that matters

and so then I wanted to see what

Deutsche Bank thinks and Deutsche Bank

thinks the same thing larger initial

Cuts would require more disappoint labor

market data than what we've seen to date

in other words in English if we get a

big Miss in August for the uh well in

September for the August data we might

get ourselves our 50 basis point cut and

it's not exactly going to be bullish

look at their little summary here in

summary while Powell's Jackson Hole

speech emphasized greater confidence on

the path of inflation he spent more time

more time folks you know this we covered

this outlining risks of further unwanted

deterioration in the labor market in

turn the upcoming labor market and

growth data will more likely determine

the initial size and pace of policy

easing it's true jpow didn't close the

door to anything and on top of that if

you look at Robo Bank scenario number

two for artificial intelligence they

basically give four scenarios they say

look in one scenario everything goes to

the moon productivity goes up demand for

AI goes up everybody is a winner

everything's great you know then they've

got these like other Edge case scenarios

with which I think are mostly nonsense

like I think it's possible that

everything could go up but then they

also have this example of like

everything stagnates and nothing

benefits from AI I don't really believe

that they have this example of demand

surging for AI but not getting any

productivity out of it maybe I'd put you

know this maybe at a 20% chance the one

I the other one I just read maybe at

like a 2% chance demands surging and

surging probably also at like 20 30% but

the one I would put at 50% is right here

and this is the one I want to read you

and then when you combine all of this

you start getting nervous watch this in

the second scenario there is still this

extensive set of AI tools that raises

productivity this makes sense there are

a good amount of AI tools that raise

productivity but not all of them do and

we assume though that the industry has a

very steep learning curve which means

that AI functions become widely

available at low price points H it's

like price Wars to basically get you to

use their chat bot well we're already

seeing that this is not a surprise

cheers to that AI getting cheaper Baby

Woo the marginal cost of many AI tools

and user queries Falls to zero in other

words the benefit of you building out

your server stack is stupid because it

becomes a commodity and like an extra

querry doesn't actually cost anything

that is not good news for AI stocks and

doesn't feed into the AI investment boom

keep in mind that scenario number one

which I do give like a 30% credibility

chance is basically everything just goes

to the moon and so yes it is possible

that everything goes to the moon I don't

think it's as likely as this second one

where basically we build so much compute

that you basically lower the cost of

marginal AI compute to near zero and

then in the short time span it will

acquire no macro significant upfront

investment in order to implement these

tools in the workspace everybody gets to

implement the tools in the workspace but

the problem with that is it's not just

Americans who get to do it you now risk

Outsourcing work to AI assisted workers

in developing economies which means more

joblessness in America and folks right

there is what I'm concerned about

because I try to position

look people don't want to hear it people

don't want to hear it just going to be

transparent here going listen to myself

say it because uh I want to make sure

I'm uh I'm saying this appropriately

okay folks I personally am positioning

my portfolio so that I can run my

startups whether we go into a recession

or not the positions that I am investing

in right now are killing it like they

moon today it's because I have like

seven figures of call options on two

different strategies and both of them

moon today I mean a lot of things moon

today but these strategies moon in my

opinion in a soft Landing in which case

all stocks moon like Tesla and Nvidia

Apple whatever all that stuff uh or a

recession in which case I don't think

everything moons only certain things

Moon specifically some of the things

that I've invested in which which I mean

you know call me biased I obviously

position because I want to prepare for

either a soft Landing or

recession so just join the courses on

building your wealth you know exactly

what it is you could see sort of my

allocation but

anyway coupon expires today there goes

my

phone Dang It

Anyway the the problem here is that the

Federal Reserve might be significantly

slower than we suspect this is a really

big deal I want to draw this out for you

for a moment let's throw in a new page

here and I want you to see why the

Federal Reserve might be panicking in a

little bit more of a detailed manner

especially now that we have a little bit

more insight from some of these

institutions I want you to ask yourself

what does minus 50 basis points do it

takes us down to 475 BP okay what does

another minus 25 and a minus 25 do it

takes us down to 425 basis points that's

where we sit with interest rates right

and the middle is obviously 425 or 450

so now you have to ask yourself is that

actually going to stop the layoff cycle

the layoff cycle has not even started

yet that's the real concern we're

getting Rigg jobless data and I'll tell

you there was a lot of upsetness over

the bureo of Statistics Labor uh oh my

gosh Bureau of Labor Statistics late

release of the data for the revisions

because certain Banks got the data

before everybody else yeah the suits

that everybody's like oh the suits got

the data before us they got the data way

before us messed up and this time it was

blunt it was is blatant blatant rigging

now you know we could chalk it up to a

mistake but the point is we have

substantially weaker labor data what

does that mean going forward well it

means we're going to highlight the

importance of some specific dates coming

up the dates you want to write down in

your calendar if you have not yet are

jolts on 94 ADP on 95 and most

importantly non non nonfarm payrolls on

96 we have been growing pay was an

average of about 176,000 jobs we were

told it was closer to 250,000 but thanks

to the revisions we're actually down

under

180,000 and the odds are that since that

was only a March toarch revision the

odds are April May June July whatever

comes after that all those months are

all low as

well that's not good that means what

we've been told is probably even worse

than expected this last Labor report

that made everybody Panic that July

labor report that came in at

114,000 take the revision off of

114,000 bro if you take 990,000 off of

that you'll be down at 24,000 jobs for

the

month you how bad it looks that's a

recession bro and jobs data lags we all

know that so look people like Kevin just

join the Bulls already I swear I want to

I so badly want to be a b but I also

want to be transparent look at this

folks this

this see

that dud can I really be bullish at 425

basis points of

rates no I'll go bullish at 0er to 150

baby that's 0% to 1.5%

that's where your boy Kevin wants to go

bullish and go on margin and go all in

on Tesla and the yellow stocks or

whatever I don't care I think I want to

go bullish at 425 walking into an

election and a potential recession hell

no bro I'll buy the 30-year Treasury and

twiddle my thumbs milking 4% for the

next 30 years because you know what

there's a real possibility we'll never

see 4% on the 30 year ever again

got

carrots they supposed to make your

vision

better I'll let you in on something it

didn't work for

me anyway bro how did oh my God how did

that get over

there all right what else so we talk to

bank oops talk to Robo

Bank there were some other institutions

that I was uh reading some research on

as well not as many of them as I thought

actually ended up talking about Jackson

Hole I think they all kind of took an

early Friday off freaking losers I'm

filming this at like 9900 p.m. it's like

already midnight on the East Coast good

thing the coupon doesn't expire until

midnight on the west coast but

anyway this is

crazy if jpow is panicking because they

went too far they need to start doing

100 basis point Cuts not not 50

certainly not 25 they need to get this

this stuff down ASAP because even if you

get down to 2% right now it's not going

to stop the layoffs it's going to take 6

to 12 months for that lag to actually

encourage hiring again that's

scary sorry I want to be bullish but I

can't be not on these stocks you know

the the big ones that I have been

popular I've picked some other ones that

kicked ass today and one of them was up

like 9% and then I had like six figures

of calls on

it that's why I'm having a Stella and

carrots anyway I got a little date

coming up with Lauren so I'll see y all

in the next one also what do you think I

I moved the mic down low do you like the

down low I I know everybody's been used

to kind of like the mic out of the shot

but I don't know I have to say I think

it looks cool look at this did you know

look at the armor of

it I bought that arm black I got it

black and I turned it gold I'm like

Kanye all right I'll see you in the next

one love youall bye these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take

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