An Urgent Message to Stock Market Investors

hey everyone me kevin here i'm excited

to say that the growth rotation is upon

us but i have some warnings and

i want to give some ideas going forward

but first we gotta understand what the

heck is happening

first it's helpful to note that on june

20th i mentioned that the market will

continue to freak out in different

industries through september and october

i believe when inflation starts to

inflict down this fall

guess what we have to look forward to

2022 comparisons to high 2021 prices

blah blah blah you can follow me at real

me kevin on twitter to see more of this

but basically i said this could

leave pension funds in there for hedge

funds

and private equity scrambling for

returns the best prospects hate to say

it because they're pricey and face tesla

etsy peloton neo apple amazon and so on

and so forth

folks big big tech why

why why why okay here's exactly why as

inflation okay let's grab the ipad

because it's going to make it a little

bit simpler

as inflation which is obviously high now

even just starts to moderate which this

moderation

we have already hit peak in china and

we are rotating down we are seeing

the same expectation for the bank of

england

the same expectation in germany we're

seeing the same thing with the fed over

here

everybody is literally saying the same

thing that we are going to see

inflation inflect down kid you not it's

right here

and you see it for example over here

this is the bank of england right

suggests a sharp recovery in the second

half of the year leading to inflation

peaking around two and a half percent

and then dropping lower beyond that the

bank of england literally goes on to say

financial market measures of inflation

expectations

suggested near-term strength in

inflation to be

transitory all right this is not going

to be a video about the

transitory nature of inflation we've

talked about that a lot we know the

expectations are we going to get we're

going to get this inflection to the

downside

but what does this mean what is a slow

down

in prices increasing actually mean

and why would it happen why would

inflation stop

skyrocketing well first of all as supply

chain

constraints ease up there is less

pricing pressure on products which that

obviously pushes prices down

but a lot of people who have bought new

refrigerators tvs spent their new money

with the reopening surge

have bought new computers of the new

things they want they're also

potentially going to spend

less money and so what we get is this

massive surge of people spending

followed by a decline in people spending

we might still spend

net net more money the trajectory might

still be up but

as soon as we go back to spending less

money which indications are that this is

already happening guess what happens

sales at companies across the board

start inflecting down as well

and this is everything this is the

entire economy so i'm not saying that

somehow apple is not going to see

sales slow down a little bit just

because maybe the cheesecake factory or

some recovery stocks are going to see a

little less enthusiasm

even though right now we're crazy

enthusiastic restaurants are popping

like crazy

it's not going to last forever the boom

won't last forever it's very very high

right now lots of spending right now

lots of excitement to get out and live

life again

i get it i'm a part of it but it doesn't

last forever

and so what does that mean going forward

well what that means going forward is

that year-over-year comps

for companies are potentially going to

be rough all of them

literally let's just use the examples

here apple and cake

in my opinion they're going to have and

are already showing this

absolutely banger q1s and q2s

and q3s like these are going to be

some of the most amazing quarters for

year-over-year growth that we've seen

for companies

but the problem is when you get a

massive comp which comp sales very very

important to keep this in mind this is

what investors

and and funds on wall street look for

they're looking for

oh my gosh mega increases in sales at

apple oh my gosh

mega increases in in same store comp

sales at a cheesecake factory from

comparing 2021 to say 2019 oh my gosh

everything's up

well next year when you look back at

these high growth percentages where all

of a sudden

you know computer sales at apple and

ipad sales iphone sales are up

10 to 40 percent in some cases we're

gonna look back

and we're not going to have that same

increase even if we literally had

a zero percent increase between this

year and next year

the earnings would be absolutely

phenomenal

but that growth rate doesn't compound

year after year after year

this massive growth in 2021 comps for

next year

are potentially going to be dangerously

boring

flat small numbers five percent growth

instead of 20 percent growth that's

normal and that'd be good because we're

growing on top of these massively

elevated numbers

but the rate of growth is going to slow

just like the rate of inflation is going

to slow

this is totally normal this is totally

expected now i know

there are a lot of you that say i don't

know kevin prices are going to keep

going up

that's fine hear me out for the next six

months because this this is going to be

an important transition

to evidence by the way some of what i'm

talking about here

it's worth noting that we hit a peak of

a 21

increase in credit card usage data from

2019 to 2021

and right now we're already at a 16

increase in other words the rate

of growth is beginning to slow all right

so kevin

hey if the rate of growth is going to

slow at apple and cheesecake

why are you saying invest in tech and

why did you think

uh not only in february or march or

april or may when you were buying the

dip throwing hundreds of thousands of

dollars millions of dollars into tech

stocks

when they were falling and everybody's

complaining and kevin you're catching a

falling knife oh my gosh you're buying

tesla at 550 it's going to go to 200.

how could you do this and people like

kevin why would everything's so down now

why wouldn't you sell now and just rebuy

in the future

because i've been investing for a long

time

i know how this works things go in

cycles

things go in cycles and we drew this

this morning on this morning's live

stream

and i'm going to show you quickly a

mistake people make and then i want to

tell you why apple instead of something

like cheesecake okay

so watch this if right here if the blue

line is your tech

cycle and the orange line is a cycle for

let's say recovery and the green line is

a cycle for

uh for kryptos the worst thing that you

could do

is listen to the herd and literally do

something like this

oh my gosh tech is falling ah tech is

doing so horribly

let me go by recovery and so what

happens a bunch of people

in may when pain was at the max point

where

max payne for tech in may a bunch of

people dumping

uh dumping tech and buying recovery or

crypto

okay and then what happened from april

uh april and may to now

text starting to run again and all of a

sudden crypto and recoveries are

starting to fall now briefly we've had

we're having a little bit of we've come

back here from bottoms off crypto

but the point is the worst thing that

you can do is

dump your stocks when they've hit bottom

and go buy something else that's the top

because when the cycles flip you just

get screwed

over and over and over and over again

this is why when people like oh why

don't you try to dump here and try to

re-time or whatever

i'm buying i bought here here here here

here okay i'm buying because

the moon is next well we got to talk

about the moon being next so here's the

thing

why did i say this about pension funds

and hedge funds very simple

so in my tweet i mentioned that pension

funds hedge funds and private equity are

potentially going to be scrambling for

returns

this is true because pension funds

generally to meet their payouts

they need to get somewhere between a six

to seven percent return now a six to

seven percent

return on pension funds used to be easy

to get

you would just put your money into the s

p 500 and boom you get your six to seven

percent return

it was a no-brainer it was pretty

freaking easy you reinvest your

dividends

done but what we're seeing right now is

what i call

multiple compression multiple

compression is where instead of seeing

six to seven percent returns on spy

or expecting because we've seen some

incredible returns on the s p 500 in the

last

eight months last year obviously but

expectations going forward

instead of expecting annual compounded

rates of returns for the s p 500

of six to seven percent for the next

decade personally

i'm seeing these and you can you can

measure this by looking at price to

earnings ratios we're seeing

expectations for returns

go down closer to three to five percent

this is called

compression it's equity return

compression this is normal

when there's equity return compression

you end up getting pension funds and

hedge funds that are like ah crap

okay well if we're only going to get

three to five percent returns

how are we going to outperform how are

we going to prepare

to make sure we can capitalize on larger

returns well

what do we think of the stuff that's in

the s p 500

that's going to on average together

return three to five percent

what do you think is going to return

more money over the next five years

is it going to be tech and ev

or potentially uh new sort of tech

insurance

or ads right all sort of grouped into

tech i mean think about it

lemonade tesla end phase right we talked

about that what's going to do better

this kind of sector or the retail sector

which is basically priced in near

perfection or what about the industrials

which have priced in near perfection or

have run

up due to massive increases in commodity

prices

do we want to invest where there's price

to perfectionist or where things are

still

relatively low and where the prospects

for growth

are absolutely massive do you want to

invest

in caterpillar to have a beautiful

tractor so you can mine copper that's

all of a sudden a whole lot cheaper

or and this is no slam on caterpillar

okay i respect caterpillar

it's done wonderful it's been a

wonderful stock but the point is we got

to look forward

we can't keep looking backwards looking

forward

my my bet is that the companies that are

going to

absolutely dominate going forward are

like the ones that i bought

on may 13th so the proof is in the

pudding folks i like to show you facts

because when i tell you i'm buying the

dip and people like

you're catching a filing knife forget

you i don't listen to that kind of

garbage i do what i think

is right now you're gonna see these

minus fifty thousand dollar withdrawals

that's because i have a ton of extra

money at m1 finance

and they only let you transfer 50 000 at

a time and i've been trying to transfer

about a million dollars over

uh and anyway it's 50k at a time but

anyway i also did some big buying look

at those dates folks

three buys 300 grand may 11th may 13th

150 000

may 14 16 buys 384 000 we did this

live with course members in the stocks

in psychology money group this is why

you want to be in the program down below

when i see the big dips i go heavy

on them and it's a signal look at this

folks tesla

etsy and face bottom may 11th let's go

over here to uh

we got our four buys over here on may

13th tesla

square neo alphabet let's go over here

16 buys on may 14th square etsy lemonade

palantir neo crisper docusign

pinterest coinbase tradus out of these

coinbase is like the only one that's

down but that's okay we didn't put too

much into coinbase

uh trade desk in vitae and face peloton

wayfair matterport expi folks the

vast majority of these purchases

basically all of them with the exception

of coin

are way up from here folks this is

something you have to know about me

i buy when there's blood on the streets

i buy when there's fear

i did millions of dollars worth of

purchasing

during the crisis we went through

between uh february

and may and now people are like oh my

gosh well now tech's up

should i buy tech now okay

so here's the thing let's talk about

expectations going forward

number one tech is not going to go

straight up it usually doesn't now tesla

sometimes has

straight 21 day surges so it could but

usually i recommend that

when we're looking at a cyclical

transition we're

transitioning into tech know that there

are going to be speed bumps

maybe those speed bumps are buying

opportunities but what you've got to do

is you kind of have to ignore

price changes that we've had so far and

you got to look and go what's still

a reasonably priced company at today's

pricing and in my opinion those are

opportunities like

tesla under 700 and face under 200

etsy under 200. these are still awesome

opportunities in my opinion

i still like palantir around

25 26 it's okay it's not as great as it

was at 23 certainly not as great as it

was at 17

but potential opportunities i do think

their

trade desk has done a phenomenal move

today that position

from my may buy is up over at this point

45

which is incredible i wish i bought way

more i bought more docusign

than i bought trade desk but that also

was up about 40 just in the last bit

bought a bunch of peloton under 100

that's at 123 right now

i think at 123 pton there's still some

growth here

maybe we go 150 in the short term but

some of the numbers are starting to get

a little frothy

pretty fast so i have a hard time

jumping

onto the new bandwagons too quickly

one that i do think that is being left

behind by the movement right now

is c3ai so i have uh put money into c3ai

as of this morning i invested into c3ai

i think it's trading here let's go to

the single chart

i think it's trading right on a support

line it's not the lowest it's been

but it's trading right on a support line

this is trade desk here

we're going to go to c3ai which is

ticker symbol ai

there we go we're trading right here on

this massive support line that we've had

we have contact points here

one two three contact points may we had

a break at almost

all tech stocks beneath support hit a

new lower support

now we've been trading sideways along

this support line

i think c3ai technically at least could

be setting up for a breakout

they partner with snowflake they they do

have customer concentration they only

have like 68 69 customers

but i think there's a big opportunity

here and i think it's right now it's

being left behind in the tech space

i think there are plenty of other

opportunities i still like roblox i

obviously i prefer it closer to its

support

around 75. i but the problem is right

now

the tech rotation back is happening so

fast it's hard to pick up on some of

those that have been left behind

and then not compared to all those that

are already rocket shipping but

another potential square i prefer it at

230 it's only a 248 right now not too

much higher

redfin sitting at 63 not bad that's got

a lot more room to grow i'd stop buying

that one at 70.75

so definitely more opportunities here

i'm very

very excited about uh these these stocks

going forward another one to potentially

consider by the way

amd amd could set up for a breakout

unless it's had too much hype

going into the semiconductor shortage so

we'll see

these are some of my thoughts i wish you

the best out there

in trading keep in mind that well first

of all there's a coupon code expiring in

six days on stocks and psychology money

uh link down below actually all the

courses expire with that coupon code but

more importantly i want you to focus on

this is a rotation it's a rotation

attack it might

have large hiccups when those hiccups

come because they always come

so expect them to come they might come

sooner than you think though

bye that's my thinking because the next

six months are looking beautiful

for the tech rotation but i don't want

to see those 20 22 comps yet

at least until i'm out of my options and

i get into shares for the long position

my thoughts thank you so much for

watching this we'll see in the next

video

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