Symbotic Robotics Stock: 5x or Overblown AI Play?

well it's Black Friday and we got to

talk about symbotic the future of quote

robust robotics I just did a fundamental

Deep dive on this company and I want to

break it down with you now the stock is

rebounding a bit today so in the short

term there's probably a chance it might

slow down into the closing and there

might be a buying opportunity after you

get a 10% bounce on a day but this is a

more long-term focused video yeah it's

Black Friday yes there's a sale going on

at meetkevin.com for the Trump course

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everything real estate analysis it's

going to be my best course ever and it's

on Black Friday sale but I want to talk

about this company it's a robotics

automation company and what's really

remarkable is they are going to be a

part of in my opinion what will be the

worst longer term recession ever now

this sounds crazy because it's like wait

if you're bullish on a company but

you're but you're worried about a

recession that seems bad I think the

next recession will drive a lot of

unemployment and part of the reason I

think that is because of Robotics now a

lot of the robotics we see here this is

this is robotics that already exists

right these are current robotics this is

old news like this company has been

doing robotics for quite a while now in

fact they they spaed back in 22 so it

was sort of part of that spa cze and as

a result of that spack cze they've

actually come down quite a bit right now

they're trading for about

2642 they were trading for as high as

$64 after the spa craze right as the

artificial intelligence Revolution began

you really saw that right around March

of 23 they had a really big run but boy

they've come down quite a bit recently

down to these lower fibs over here in

part because of a delay of their annual

filing and their annual filing is being

delayed because of restatements they

have to make to some prior quarter

financial statements and that sounds

really scary it's almost like super

micro which has been very volatile after

their sort of accounting issues uh which

I'm actually bullish on the super micro

valuation and will stay bullish until

they get probably closer to my price

Target which is

$87 uh but anyway symbotic which is so

easy to say symbiotic although it's not

symbotic is really interesting because

if you actually look at the earnings

call of this company

you'll find that the restatement of

these

financials doesn't affect their annual

numbers at all not a dime in fact in

their uh annual report they talk about

or sorry their uh latest call you could

see it right here before I discuss our

financial results I want to address the

issue of restatements to quarterly

financials as we were reviewing our

business processes and preparing our

full year financials we identified

occurrences during 2024 where goods and

services related to specific Milestone

achievements were expensed prior to the

corresponding achievements so in other

words they took an expense too early but

because it's all wrapped up into

2024 they expect no impact on their full

year results but there could be some

restatements for like Q3 versus Q2

versus Q4 which is understandable I look

at this as really a nothing Burger

mostly because right now the company

it's got a high PE ratio but it's also

got a really high growth rate the PE

Ratio right now on a 4 or 2025 level is

95 which is very high but they're

expecting to grow uh by

69.8% for each of the next four years

after September of

2025 that's that's pretty good so when

you divide that out you're actually

looking at this as a PEG ratio of about

1.36 now I actually did a course member

live stream on this uh uh company we did

a fundamental analysis on them before

their stock crashed after the accounting

restatement their St crashed like 37% so

we're making this video after that crash

uh and and now we're looking at it like

okay well is it a good deal now right so

uh if you actually jump over to what I

wrote uh in my uh uh course member

analysis sort of summary section because

we did a live stream on this you you can

actually see on November 20th I reviewed

the company this is going to look a

little busy on screen here but don't

worry about it uh over here in this

corner you'll see I posted the Q4

symbiotic earnings call with annotations

and the annual report the

2023 uh and we talked about how they use

contract manufacturing which I'll talk

about the benefits of that in just a

moment they're hedging their exposure to

prices of Steel going up uh but

something that's remarkable uh is uh

here I wrote It's for a tweg selling for

10x sales not a particularly good like

not a particular deal right now I wrote

but absolutely a stock to watch in

robotics now what's really interesting

is now you have this nothing Burger

accounting error and to me I'm looking

at that going oh now there's an

opportunity cuz now you're not buying it

for a two peg you're actually buying it

for a 1.3 Peg the accounting error is

nonsense I get a cheaper valuation on a

good company and now contract

manufacturing I will to say I actually

really love contract manufacturing n

phase does contract manufacturing as

well because you can sell a product and

a service but you don't have the

responsibility of constantly keeping

people employed in a factory and making

sure the quality control is good instead

it's somebody else's responsibility to

make sure the quality control is good

and if it isn't good you don't buy it so

so uh symbotic has to issue these sort

of pre-orders for parts and inventories

which can sometimes make their cash flow

look a little lower like in this last

quarter they had some negative cash flow

and so some folks are like oh I don't

know but their cash flow negative I I

believe a lot of that is just due to

them pre-ordering from their contract

manufacturer and contract manufacturing

is great especially if you have a

Slowdown because you can really quickly

uh uh adjust how much you're spending

and you're not sandbagged by keeping all

the people employed you know Nvidia is a

contract manufacturer too Tesla on the

other hand actually also manufactures

but that gives them kind of a little bit

of an anchor it does also come with

other competitive advantages though but

this is their cash flow statement and

when you look at the prepaid expenses

and other current assets section here uh

you can see that they've prepaid in one

quarter in 3 months here almost an

entire Year's worth of prepaid expenses

and other assets over here so that alone

right there I think is what sort of

whack their cash flow sort of expenses

going to this uh but they are profitable

at least this quarter they profitable

expect them to be continue to be

profitable you look at a balance sheet

uh consideration they've got $727

million in cash $

382.48 million in accounts receivable in

inventory so I think you're a very well

capitalized company I think the balance

sheet is very strong but something that

makes me very excited too is their

partnership with SoftBank and how

they're controlling costs both of these

are a GameChanger in my opinion and they

make me pretty excited about the company

now I'm also very excited about the

Trump course which is on pre-sale today

until December 17th really learn more

about that just go to me kevin.com watch

the video where I talk about the

trumponomics course somebody left me a

comment the other day they're like how

you're you're not you don't have a

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Trump's going to talk about well I don't

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I really think this is a course for

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this Trump 20125 course and it's good

for beginners good for advanced uh it's

just going to be good for everybody it's

going to be speed you right up to where

you need to be so look at their expense

management at this company so you look

at expense management uh what you

actually have is you've got a company

that uh is growing revenues

year-over-year by about 55% we expect

earnings per share to grow by 69% per

year which is remarkable uh and part of

that is because they're just cutting

their sgna but they're still growing

over the last year they shrunk sgna by

12% and they still grew 55%

which is remarkable and it somewhat

implies that maybe these products are

really selling themselves and one of the

other ways that they're trying to sell

their own products well there are

actually two ways one is with SoftBank

and another is through Acquisitions see

this company just acquired this company

called uh vot and they mentioned in

their earnings calls in their earnings

call that they're open to doing more

Acquisitions because they think there

are a lot of opportunities in robotics

right now and so they just acquired this

small private company called e free move

it's basically a lar based company that

helps robots not kill the humans that

they're working with that's just like

the really quick tldr that I take away

from this and uh symbotic now owns this

company now vo is a private company what

possible human minimum distance to

Hazard whatever uh so by acquiring this

they actually increase their pricing

power in their Moe now that actually is

why I'm so excited like ridiculously

excited about robotics

that I've actually created a VC around

this it's roboh hack. uh we're limited

to 99 investors right now so if you want

in sign the docu sign we will text you

more information this weekend if you

sign a docu Sign by Monday we'll text

you more information uh and uh we're

only going to be able to pick 99

accredited investors but we expect uh 20

probably closer to honestly like 40 to

50% uh of uh our investments to go into

robotics uh and then we'll have money

going into space exploration nuclear

energy quantum compute this is just be

private like this is Venture Capital

right private world but very very

excited about what's going on with

robotics but anyway uh so they acquired

this company but not only did they

acquire this company if you jump over to

their agreement with SoftBank this is

really interesting they want to come out

with something called warehouses as a

service so w okay this is symbolic

warehouses as a service basically what

they're doing is they're buying this

massive factory for like $125 million or

Warehouse basically outside of Atlanta

Georgia and uh they're partnering with

soft Bank you know not a bank the

Investment Group uh and they are taking

a 35% ownership of this greenbox

Warehouse as a service facility but with

the partnership of this SoftBank agrees

to help pay for over $7.5 billion dollar

of robots from symbotic so like if

warehouses service works great symbotic

gets 35% of The Upside but symbotic is

Tak or uh SoftBank is taking 65% of the

risk while symbotic gets to manufacture

the robots sell their robots to this

this facility where they could basically

do like Amazon Fulfillment but not

through Amazon for companies and they

actually think by doing this they'll

sell more of their robots because people

will see this and they'll be like oh

this is this is like this is such a good

Warehouse as a service uh we not only

want this for ourselves uh but we want

to buy your robots to to make it happen

for ourselves so they see uh this as an

ability for companies to reduce

inventory and costs it's like

Contracting out your warehousing to

robotics right uh and uh you know

SoftBank does get shares in symbotic so

there's sort of this Mutual relationship

as long as SoftBank is paying for those

robots so there's some conditionals

there you could read those details that

were on screen uh another thing that was

fascinating which actually came up in

the earnings call

uh let's find my earnings call here in

the earnings call I want to get to where

they talk about Vision take me just a

moment to find it but when they talk

about Vision what they do is they say

like robotics today they're not really

there yet without Vision that they're

kind of blind and the problem is with

that is what happens when products break

or spill or or whatever the robots don't

have vision and so what they're doing

now is they're introducing vision

technology and artificial intelligence

to the robots and then they're selling a

software that they make like 50% margin

on which is great and there is the play

right so now you're acquiring companies

like vo so you can have the lar based

Vision train the robots on what to do

and really take the entire robot Fleet

they already have improve it sell more

of the software but then also make it

easier to sell more robots in the future

this is where they talk about green box

how they think it'll be a couple years

before they actually build that and they

get the W up so you know potentially

kind of getting in early obviously the

big downside of symbotic is if growth

stalls for robotics you're going to have

a problem I just don't see a future even

in a recession or like if there's an AI

crash like Nvidia slows down or whatever

I just don't see how uh Warehouse

robotics doesn't keep doing you know

good but I I could be wrong I I could be

really wrong here I I I want to buy this

stock I do not own this stock right now

I do not have any call options or puts I

don't have anything on this right now I

have literally zero exposure to this

right now but I want to buy uh they talk

about this is interesting too they talk

about Walmart Mexico and sort of backlog

how even though they didn't add any to

their backlog this quarter they expect

to add to backlog in the next few

quarters and really where they get very

excited is not only about hedging

themselves against uh steel cost but

they get excited about uh some

uncertainty in warehousing being removed

after the election but spe specifically

what's going on in South America they

think that as they're able to expand

with these products to South America uh

they're going to be able to explode

their total addressable market and

what's crazy they think is if they can

control their Factory robots with vision

sensors they could basically remotely

control the robots from anywhere in the

world which basically means you could

hire very very cheap labor in like

Indonesia or India or the Philippines or

China to to supervise your robots in

factories at local distribution

facilities close to the End customer

that are all being run by robots using

vision-based AI you know they're only

doing two uh uh distribution centers

right now for Walmart Mexico and they

have like 40 or 50 so they're like yeah

there you know there's going to be

competition but our Tam could literally

be ridiculously huge and so they think

by doing the was model they're going to

be able to really demonstrate what their

what their total addressable future

Market is

so uh this is pretty exciting I think

the upside in the

valuation comes a lot from not only

increasing robotic sales which they're

not even pricing in right now but it

also uh I mean a lot is already priced

in right but I'm saying like in South

America or whatever uh let me make sure

yeah okay that's still good uh but I

think a lot of their enthusiasm comes

from software as well so if this company

as a contract manufact

can start demanding a higher Peg uh the

valuation here could could balloon uh

I'll run a price target analysis on it

so I'm going to go for a

2027 and uh what I'm going to do oh

let's get this ready together

here okay so for a future valuation I'm

going to take a future Peg I mean right

now we're at about 1.36

and then we're going to use a future Peg

formula on 2027 numbers I'm going to

give you Wall Street based on my pegs so

Wall Street would have us at uh

85 cents in

2027 uh I'll give them a 50% growth rate

which is high that's going to slow down

that's down from the

69% right and then I'll give them a a uh

1.67 Peg so I'm going to reduce the the

growth rate just to be conservative a

little bit I'm going to go with 1.67 PEG

which basically doesn't account for

software at all and to me this is a $71

company with those

numbers so $71 company

2027 uh it's trading for $27 right now

then and that's on the more conservative

non-software valuation basis if I stick

with the 69%

growth which might be a little

aggressive but maybe not because that's

when the W will come out growth could

explode if I stick with 69% growth I go

1.67 on the Peg and I go with the

earnings of 885 2028 targets

$98 2020 sorry 2027 Target is

$98

the uh 2028

Target Buck 50 is the current Wall

Street estimate times 1

.67 times I'll go 50% growth again it's

125 bucks

so I think there's a lot of

upside I'm going to say my price

Target's probably here between 70 to 98

because I like to stay conservative and

so I think that's a low Target but I'm

going to go with 71 to 98 bucks on this

company and and and I think their

recession resilient so this is really

exciting to me so I do have also a

little bit more from the company on also

just to make it clear this video is not

sponsored by them I know it sounds like

I'm very bullish but that happens there

are creators who get sponsored by stock

companies uh and to pump the stock and

I'm like well that's disingenuous if you

don't disclose that so I just want to

disclose that I am not although I'd love

to tour their Factory honestly if I

could get a tour of what they're doing

you know while they're manufacturers or

even just where they've deployed some

that'd be sick but uh here's just an

example of a warehouse robot that

they're working on now uh and uh this is

sort of their next gen robot here's one

that they have on they have one version

that's on Rails right here these are

kind of like robotic Fork Cliffs right

and then they have another version that

is sort of like your Amazon bot that can

rotate and pivot and drive around like a

forklift on the

floor so kind of cool I mean there's

there's a lot of stuff you could see

here when you sort of just uh click

around on their website I generally

don't love watching Market marketing

videos uh but they talk a lot about

their Robotics and basically they they

compare it to full self-driving in cars

except I actually think these devices

have a better chance of going

far uh further faster than full

self-driving cars because I think the

regulation is easier but you're also in

a controlled environment right like when

you're in a controlled environment you

don't actually have to worry about some

random guy running a red light you're in

a factory so you have less poopies to

worry about anyway that's my take on

symbotic ticker SYM sorry I'm bullish

but yeah hopefully that was helpful go

check out the Trump course uh we do

analysis like that almost daily in the

course member live stream by the way so

uh you get that in the Trump course in

addition to the actual Trump related

content that coming out so you want to

know art of the deal play your trump

card all that kind of stuff I'll put my

spin on it and uh break it all down for

you it'll be really fun anyway rent a

warehouse says somebody in the chat here

somebody says big juicy Tam yes uh let's

see here somebody says that's why I

invest in qom let the Bots do the work

people can just go buy baby oil or

something

okay Dad coin says Trump course just

signed let's go thank you so much uh for

for joining uh dad coin thank you for

your impressive work says Robin space

Hood I love that that's cool name thank

you for sharing this yeah yeah you got

it let's celebrate their first Super on

a live stream do you offer oh yeah

that's the one I answered already a

Tiffany yeah absolutely we'll have that

in there that's awesome okay uh just a

shout out to some of those of you who

just joined Torina naven Robert venat

sergia S

Ser

Ser I'll have to work on your name we'll

work on that together Dustin mtes Jay

William Kevin what's up man andrees

Andres bought the bundle the financial

advice library and

trumponomics and looks

like also got trumponomics and the

wealth Library uh 99 extra there why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

you but meet Kevin always great to get

your take