Bullish Flip! But Warning: MAJOR Bearish Danger.

quick note before we start uh yesterday

in our Alpha report I mentioned 7 Days

of positive momentum on GameStop

volatility is low $30 calls for January

only cost you about 12% potentially

desirable if you think momentum is just

getting started and take a look what

happened yesterday you started out at a

low of about $24 and you ended the day

up almost nine sorry almost 10% up

99.57%

which is pretty good that option printed

money yesterday and if you want those

totally for free these sort of trade

ideas or I call it my Alpha report just

things I'm seeing with volatility

momentum or otherwise just go to

meetkevin.com

alha and sign up that's meetkevin.com

Alpa it's totally free and we're going

to extend this date as well for the free

period which frankly I have no plans to

monetize it at this point hey everyone

me Kevin here boy oh boy we've got a

very bullish thing to talk about for

Bitcoin and potentially the economy and

then we've also got something bearish to

talk about so we've got to balance both

of these let's get into it First Bank of

America just announced that exposure to

stocks in the United States is at its

highest level since

2013 after the presidential election of

uh 2012 the end of 2012 uh on optimism

for the economy now keep in mind in

2013 fears of a double dip recession

which were really rampant in 2010 11 and

12 started fading and home prices were

Rising which is the opposite of what

you're seeing in a lot of markets today

where home prices are declining uh job

growth was present and we didn't have an

inverted yield curve which right now we

have no job growth less job growth uh

and we are also in a place where we had

a substantially inverted yield curve so

the reference to 2013 does have some

bearish elements to it but that's not

the bare thing that we were going to

talk about uh it is worth noting though

the market basically from 2013 on after

the second double dip recession was

avoided in 2013 although it was never

really realistic I was I was in the

business environment during this time I

remember it very clearly especially in

real estate but anyway the market was

basically straight up until Co really

impressive and really bullish now Bank

of America this morning also put out a

piece that now when previously they had

a shift that is before the election they

had a shift of uh 10% more than the

average of investors were projecting a

weaker economy this uh next year that

has now shifted to rather than basically

being negative 10% to positive 23% of

investors expecting stronger Global

growth next year year I don't know if

that's because Jerome Powell who's like

oh yeah you know growth might actually

surprise to the upside next year which

part of me is kind of like wondering

like where where are you getting that

from like are you just saying that to

hopefully create the growth I don't know

but it's worth noting that right now

three uh times the fund managers

compared to before the election are now

considered overweight stocks so we're

definitely at a level of high exposure

to stocks and so this has some folks

wondering okay is there ever going to be

a peak here uh and what's the bearish

thing that you're going to talk about

the bearish thing I'm going to talk

about is one of the most scary things

that I've seen yet but we'll get to that

in just a moment first I want to take a

look at Bitcoin so this is bullish for

Bitcoin in my opinion but in my

opinion based on a few different

economic and or rather technical

analyses that I've conducted I think

bitcoin's next stop uh is either around

the 102 to 103 range or potentially as

high as 109 depending on where you place

the floor for your Fibonacci extensions

now I think that's bullish in the longer

term here but that doesn't necessarily

mean we're going to go straight to that

position and after we hit 990,000 we did

start to see some profit taking until

about 3:00 a.m. this morning California

time uh more like 2:50 it was right when

my alarm was going off and we started

Rising again but again we're already

starting to see some of that profit

taking so just a heads up always expect

some red days after some runs but Kevin

what is this bearish thing that you keep

talking about well I was talking to my

wife Lauren the other day and uh she

asked me hey you know is like what is

the potential that the economy can grow

faster than we expected next year uh and

that we could avoid a recession and uh

her question's very well pointed it's a

very direct question of okay well hey

maybe if the stock market is rising and

Bitcoin is rising as much as it has been

perhaps we'll be able to encourage

companies and businesses to hire more

people which would then expand economic

growth and we could avoid a recession

because right now we see job openings

that are plummeting or we see an

unemployment rate that is trending up

now obviously in the last few months

there have been some fluctuations we had

a really good September we had a bad

October average it together things are

slowing down substantially uh excuse me

uh from where we were at the beginning

of the year beginning of the year we

were creating over 200,000 jobs per

month for the first 6 months on average

now all of a sudden we're

creating uh less than 105,000 somewhere

between

103 uh and 104,000 jobs on average for

each of the past three months that's a

huge decline uh on top of that job

openings are plummeting which is usually

what happens before a recession although

job openings have been plummeting for a

while so uh there are some people who

think that this is just a normalization

and none of this is Mega bearish we've

all seen this before including the level

of 27 weeks or more unemployed workers

Rising which really only happens in

recessions or after recessions uh like

for example the mid 70s here you had

sort of this uh post recession recovery

jump here and a lot of people think this

was really just part of that recession

whereas here we had that post recession

jump now down now we're Rising again

which should imply that we're oops I

cover that up a little bit should imply

that we're moving in towards a recession

rather than out of one now with that

said what Kevin is the most bearish

thing that I saw well what I saw was I

wanted to go to history I wanted to see

hey Lauren let's just look at the

historical evidence for what happened

when stocks ran and what kind of hiring

we saw so let's talk about that we'll do

that over here at the iPad so here's

what I

found

when the stock market ran to all-time

highs such as when the NASDAQ 100 peaked

in October of 2007 about 1 month after

the first 50 basis point cut from the

FED we ended up seeing the stock market

the NASDAQ 100 at

4314 okay so keep that in mind so now

the question is did we create jobs in

that 2006 to 2007 period as the stock

market was going to all-time highs or

potentially even right afterwards and

what I

found well yeah okay I just want to make

sure that mic's working uh what I found

uh was no in fact job creation peaked

out in

2006 so it's worth remembering that the

stock market doesn't necessarily Drive

job growth in fact I would argue it has

nothing to do with job growth especially

since money can simply evaporate in much

the same way it was created when stocks

go up it doesn't necessarily transfer to

somebody who could then spend it on jobs

so I thought okay well maybe that was

just 2006 and 7 so then I looked at well

what about the dotc bubble and I saw

that we peaked in February of 2000 at

8,721 optimism around technology

whatever whatever whatever and so what

did we end up finding in terms of jobs

did we create more jobs when the stock

market peaked at the beginning of 2000

well the answer was no in fact the job

gains that we saw were really flat for

about 3 years going into the doc bubble

and during the dotc bubble during this

entire surge right here we didn't

actually create more jobs job growth was

flat instead what happened was job

growth peaked out in May of 2000 and

plummeted into December of 2000 of uh

before we hit the recession and that

actually coincided with the Fallen

stocks which the reason that's

ridiculously bearish is as written here

this is horrible the stock market up did

not lead to more hiring which is the

opposite of what seems logical and as

the stock market went down you actually

reduced hiring and we ended up driving

into a recession this isn't great so

then I wondered okay well what actually

creates jobs and what I found is what

actually creates jobs is not strong GDP

but accelerating GDP so when the rate of

acceleration in other words you're

taking your big toe on the gas pedal and

you're pushing it down board or you're

in a plane I love the plane analogy and

the pilot is pushing the Thruster

forward more you ever take off on a

plane and then you kind of like level

out right after takeoff and you're like

oh waa that felt weird well it's because

you're not cleared out of the airspace

yet often and then once you're cleared

out of the airspace you feel them push

the thrust Thruster forward again then

you kind of take off again yeah that's

accelerating GDP as well that feeling of

oh wow we're getting a real boost over

here we're getting some thrust who

doesn't love some more thrust well take

a look at this and that's why when you

look at this chart what you end up

finding is almost a perfect correlation

between GDP and jobs look at 2004 to

2006 the blue line is GDP the red line

is job creation uh or the the both of

these are the percent change

year-over-year uh and so the more jobs

we created uh uh you would see that

reflected in a higher percentage of

year-over-year job growth and so you can

see there's this correlation GDP up jobs

up unless you were going into a

recession you could have GDP pop up into

20 2000 sort of bubble territory there

but jobs didn't react because people

probably recognized nah this is a little

bubbly we're not going to hire here now

surprisingly people are actually pretty

good at making these sort of business

decisions at companies not necessarily

the best in valuing stocks but that's

okay that's different uh then what you

have over here is GDP blue line and red

line jobs again except this time it's a

snapshot of the 80s post recession the

recession's over GDP up employees up no

recession in 1986 GDP up employees up

very simple okay here's a zoom out of

the past 70 years of this data the

correlation is pretty freaking clear no

recession over here in the mid-60s GDP

up jobs up very simple well what's

happening right now well there you go

GDP down jobs down so we're actually

decelerating we're actually taking

thrust off the

Thruster this is bad in fact I think

this is horrible so my initial response

to Lauren was actually

incorrect I

assumed that when the stock market goes

up businesses are going to feel more

confident and they'll hire more but

that's not how it works people only hire

more when both sales are up confidence

that we're not going into a recession is

up and GDP is

expanding well we're not seeing

expanding confidence of the levels that

say we're not going to go in a recession

and usually confidence lags real data

anyway GDP is decelerating jobs are

decelerating and stock market

positioning is at all-time highs pricing

in Perfection frankly perfection in the

Trump Administration and you haven't

even really started seeing profit taking

yet with the exception of what you're

starting to see a little bit in Bitcoin

here so anyway uh thank you so much for

watching this video good luck out here

make sure to subscribe to the channel if

you found this useful and folks we'll

see you in the next one goodbye and good

luck why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take