damn

huh really fun fact about the market

gasoline seems to have hit peak at the

same time roughly as the nasdaq and s p

500 hit

bottom

interesting thing to pay attention to

much like that coupon code on building

your wealth expiring on the 28 take

advantage of that 50 off and i'll see

you there hey everyone me kevin here it

is july 25th which you know what that

means we got lots of things to talk

about for catalyst coming up this week

including j pal and of course coupon

expiration on the 28th don't get another

not a big hit in the price so make sure

to join those programs on building your

wealth before that expiration okay folks

let's talk about this so the first big

thing that we really have to focus on

this week is absolutely earnings and

here's what people are looking for and

markets are looking for anything that

indicates weaker consumer demand apple

for example just put their cell phones

on sale in china because of devastating

consumer demand for smartphones in china

we've already seen smart phone sales are

down nine percent globally in the second

quarter uh that's at least based on some

analytic firms and so anything that

indicates a weaker consumer demand is

creating a concern for example this

morning also we had squarespace the

website hosting company and building

company the drag and drop company

they slightly missed and they revised

down their expected earnings for q3 by

only about a percent and a half it was

super nominal stock fell like 12 to 14

percent immediately why because people

are looking for

where is the strong consumer at the

beginning of the year people are like

get out well i mean i was one of the

folks saying get out of consumer

discretionaries that was like an easy

play but a lot of folks decided to yolo

it into consumer staples but a lot of

consumer staples still got whacked i

mean you look at like walmart or even

the staple aspect of of costco or target

although costco's come back a little bit

nowhere near what we thought it was

going to do though uh it's shocking so

you got to be really careful instead

what the market is really doing is

they're parsing out and saying okay look

walmart inventory is going up weaker

consumer here don't care if it's a

staple or discretionary not going to

perform as well so when we have

companies reporting this week

like microsoft google visa coca-cola

mcdonald's ups gm facebook qualcomm

shopify spotify apple amazon roku sony

and ford i guarantee you when all of

these people are going to be looking for

a strong consumer by the way do you want

to be super and get earnings transcripts

like right away check out metkevin.com

seeking alpha and not only get their

analysis but get earnings transcripts

right away and you can get their premium

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for not only future projections on data

and financials for companies but a lot

of insightful articles and those

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love downloading and then doing a search

for inside those articles for keywords

like demand and recession and consumer

it's a great way to stay in tune and in

touch with the market methkevin.com

seeking alpha

in fact this is exactly why i put the

vast majority of my personal position uh

over this the the last few months of

dips that we've had here into tesla

because i expect markets to look for

companies that have extremely

exceptional demand and the company that

has exceptional demand and told us about

exceptional demand is tesla now of

course there were issues with the

shanghai shutdowns uh and elon musk gave

us a very fair warning he goes look we

are selling bitcoin to raise cash

because if china keeps us locked down

for another six months we're gonna need

it so he was very smart to do that and

prepared and even in their last 10 q

which came out this morning they told us

hey look we should be good with our cash

position to where we don't have to raise

money as long as macro economic

you know the macroeconomic situation

doesn't deteriorate all of a sudden

substantially or essentially

shanghai locks uh a tesla down that

would be terrible again uh or

well the city of shanghai china locks

shanghai giga shanghai down again that

would be terrible but uh tesla did also

tell us that hey uh we are now raising

how much we think we're going to spend

on capital expenses like labor costs at

the factories materials inflationary

costs freight whatever by about a

billion dollars more than expected in

2022. they were expecting to spend

another uh five to seven billion dollars

in capex for the rest of the year now

they're actually revising that up to six

to eight again that just came out in the

10q this morning and the stock doesn't

care the stock's actually turning green

why it's because of a strong consumer

that's what that's what investors are

looking for that's what wall street is

looking for right now i'm convinced of

that and that's why when i'm picking

companies to invest in i'm picking

companies where the companies are

proving the consumer is strong this in

my opinion is exactly why end phase is

kicking butt and it's positive here

today is because they are an earnings

report that anybody can read and look at

and go damn the consumer's strong now is

that potentially going to slow down if

people think that household

or home prices are going to slow down

yeah entirely but we have not seen that

yet and if anything we've seen 10-year

treasuries come off peak i'm actually

long on on some treasuries right now

because i think there's a potential for

treasury yields to continue to tick down

a little bit that's actually going to be

great for real estate so you could

actually see the softest landing of of

all markets in real estate and you have

to watch this very very carefully

because you don't want to miss the

opportunity to buy which we'll be doing

a lot of uh especially with the series a

coming up combination of real estate

investing and sas you can go to

medkevin.com series a to sign up to

learn more about that and of course

course members will have first shot at

investing in that and we might even

close it down to so that only course

members uh end up investing uh depending

on uh depending on how the first uh 30

days goes so we'll see

so uh the the next thing that we want to

pay attention to really corresponds to

these earnings here and it's that

household net worth

deterioration is is likely to continue

and why this matters is is really

because you're you've got the situation

in macro or in the macro economy right

now where

inflation is outpacing people's wages

but most people compared to 2019 are a

lot richer today than they were in 19

and we still have a lingering feeling of

like we want to keep spending so you've

got two things right you even the wealth

has come down from november like peak to

where we are now people's wealth

generally people who have invested is

lower than what it was in november

people are still wealthier compared to

2019 so it's not really a surprise that

in many areas we're still seeing a very

very strong consumer which is great

but we do expect that to slow down

because wages aren't keeping pace so at

some point we are going to see more

slowdowns at the various different

companies and this is why the

forward-looking stock market is

punishing companies that are suggesting

they have a weak consumer this is why

snapchat and their ability to to convert

uh advertisements or or to get more

advertisements on their platform with

companies because companies are seeing a

weaker consumer so they're turning off

ads so snapchat falls 40 to 50 what was

it on thursday or friday or whatever it

all boils down to the consumer some

people like to say oh i don't care about

the consumer we don't have to pay

attention to the consumer dude the

consumer is everything that's literally

what people care about now joe biden and

the white house decided to release a

statement on a big catalyst that we have

coming out this week which is on july

28th we expect to get gdp numbers which

could be negative which means we are

technically in a recession we're not in

an officially declared recession though

until this group of eight fancy

economists at the national bureau of

economic research declare that we're in

a recession but that usually takes

anywhere between uh 4 to 14 months after

we get this kind of data to declare that

we're in a recession and we could end up

being in a actual technical recession

that is a negative gdp two quarters in a

row but not an economically declared

recession because jobs are doing so well

that's entirely possible but i don't

honestly think anybody cares about that

we care about this gdp print uh coming

up on the 28th this week just the same

day the coupon code expires and you

really want to take advantage of that

because you'll be getting the best deal

the price always goes up and it won't

ever be cheaper than today but anyway in

my opinion this is joe biden basically

trying to hedge

for the midterm elections to say like oh

crap yeah we might be in a technical

recession that's going to create a lot

of headlines let's try to get ahead of

the story by going don't worry even if

we have two quarters of negative gdp in

a row doesn't necessarily mean we're in

a recession it's it's total bs and total

nonsense and it's kind of lame it almost

makes me think the opposite that they

know it's going to come in negative and

they're just trying to get ahead of the

news kind of weird but of course the day

before the 28th which again that coupon

expiration and keep in mind you'll get

my fundamental analysis in those

programs on things like what i'm doing

now which is the great dollar short i'm

shorting the dollar and that position is

straight up since uh since when i

initiated that short uh i i kind of

still encourage shorting the dollar

right now but uh that will be a trade

that will not be a long-term hold uh but

anyway and then those are things we talk

about in our course member live streams

i do my best to do those regularly while

i'm traveling sometimes i just can't

because of the internet or whatever

reasons but my goal is to always

especially when i'm in the office make

sure we get a lot of good fundamental

analysis live streams together both for

real estate and stocks and you want to

be part of those with lifetime access in

those programs so

the day before july 28th though we have

the fed meeting

and at the 27th we're expecting the fed

to raise rates 75 basis points they

really need to here because even though

inflation expectations have come down on

in the bond market we're sitting at a

five-year break even right now of 2.58

and we've seen consumer expectations for

inflation going out three to five years

rotate down even though we've seen that

what's really really really important is

that the fed walks the walk now because

if the fed goes soft on us markets could

think you're too soft inflation

expectations go right back up then we

got a nightmare we need the fed to talk

dirty to us here and and punish us they

need to spank us again okay they didn't

do great last time i mean they gave us

the 75 but they they were still a little

soft go hard this time give us the 75

talk angrily to us tell us about how

inflation is still broad-based and you

still have a lot more work to do fine

that's actually going to be what markets

want to hear personally i think as long

as they go 75 and they talk strongly and

firmly and they keep talking inflation

down we'll actually see inflation rotate

down towards the end of the year and

we'll see break evens continue to rotate

down maybe peak 10-year treasury is

behind us which would be great

especially for the housing market it

would be great for the housing market be

great for stocks keep in mind that right

now the market is pricing in with a

79.2 percent certainty of a 75 basis

point hike

uh and i and personally i think you want

to be bullish on the second half now i

do think uh all of these earnings coming

up if we have even slight misses or

revisions down you're going to see some

pretty volatile moves but i think those

are buying opportunities you'll be able

to buy so have some cash available i'm a

big fan in my opinion it's not a

recommendation for you not financial

advice of course but i'm a big fan of

like 85 in right now and maybe 10 to 15

cash

so uh we got the fed uh all these

earnings coming up some folks by the way

are seeing bullish patterns i'll throw

up a chart here bullish patterns on uh

on the nasdaq and technology companies

we'll throw this chart up here and we're

seeing a bullish reversal on the chart

pattern which you can see here uh and uh

some are saying hey maybe it's time for

some call options on t qqq triple q uh

triple nasdaq that's very very very very

risky but

it seems to be an interesting potential

a play or trade right now so uh watch

the consumer folks very very very

critical watch these earnings i will be

covering them i'll be covering the fed

meeting this week take advantage of the

coupon code and folks we'll see in the

next one thanks so much goodbye