The Worsening Stock Market Crash & Fed Flip.

mean it's just exhausting not only is

the Spy falling but now we've gotten

disasters over jobs and oil and we still

have this Credit Suisse drama going on

ah folks let's talk about what's going

on all right look the first thing that

you got to know this morning is that

yesterday when we talked about how we're

starting to see some softness in the job

market it was true we started to see in

multiple reports that companies are

seeing less quits the jolts report came

in softer than expected which was

phenomenal that's the job openings and

quits report and so on that came in

softer as well as anecdotal evidence

from companies that hey we're not

needing to fill jobs as much we're

seeing less demand or were able to fill

jobs and less people are quitting right

like what we were getting anecdotally

from the New York Times and from other

resources that we were looking at

yesterday for jobs combined with the

joltz report was saying hey like things

are actually going in the right

direction

but in my video yesterday I cautioned

that we can't just look at one report

and say that's it the fed's going to

Pivot because the FED wants to see a

consistent slew of many many reports

that are showing an actual balance in

the labor markets and that is exactly

what we did not get today quite

literally what we did not get today now

today is just sort of the the pre the

Forerunner to what happens on Friday but

we still want to talk about it because

it's not that terrible at making

estimates you know this whole covered

post covert period has been a little

rougher to make estimates but still this

morning we got the ADP jobs report which

is great because it showed that yes the

bars are trending down as you can see

U.S employment growth has slowed since

last spring right we are seeing this

trend see if I were to draw a trend line

we're seeing a trend down but

unfortunately we actually in this last

report ended up seeing uh the the amount

the number of jobs come in not only

higher than expected but higher than

where we were in August and so it's this

kind of flip-flopping that the data is

doing even though it's trending down

much the same with inflation trending

down at least recently here but

flip-flopping that leads the FED to be

read or sort of reaffirmed that ah this

is why we have to continue hiking

because here are the actual numbers so

the report right now uh showed a 200 000

job gain as the expectation we actually

beat the expectation so the economists

are wrong again not only were the

expectations 200k but we came in at 208

now that's not that terrible but when

you combine that with the fact that they

went back to last month and added and

revised up the amount of jobs we had

last month which they do they make

revisions you know as more data comes in

they make revisions uh they revised up

the jobs last month by another 185 000

jobs so what we actually end up with is

a pretty decent job growth picture where

even though things are slowing down off

of their crazy shortages they're still

strong in fact the report also told us

about wage growth and the wage growth

numbers quite frankly were scary those

who changed jobs experienced a 15.7

percent pay increase from a year ago

that is compared with a 7.8 percent gain

for those who stayed at their job

remember what we talked about yesterday

with the wage price spiral and this by

the way is why you want to consistently

come back hit that subscribe button

watch all the videos because we built we

build here okay we're like Lego builders

anyway uh that compared okay well wage

price spiral is what we talked about

yesterday right if the ADP report is

saying people who stated their jobs

gained 7.8 percent in Wages that's

almost where the inflation rate is and

if you change jobs and you basically

doubled your wage increase well that is

now a significant potential wage spiral

that says let's just keep quitting every

year and and get more money right on top

of that we find that nearly

three-fourths of the increases that we

had were driven by a surge in

transportation utilities and trade uh

manufacturing and Mining declined but

you know overall it's still like all

right so you got some parts going down

others still strong more ammo for the

FED to stay strong we also did see

payroll's fall in financing activities

which that's no surprise because then

when we bring up this idea of Credit

Suisse we have some other news this

morning as well we got to cover the

other news when we bring up Credit

Suisse oh my gosh the debates on Twitter

are just quite frankly exhausting huh

look this is why what I prefer to do is

do fundamental analysis rather than just

debate speculation and that's why today

in the course member live stream we're

going to be doing a fundamental and I'll

sub shop fight I'll tell you man we're

trying to get this the the new remember

how I said like we're trying to

transition to this new course uh and and

we're making a big change uh to to the

course model well some of that involves

using Shopify and I have to say I'm

really impressed with Shopify so we're

gonna go find the analysis on them uh

and uh and and anyway yeah that course

update is still coming it's gonna be

really exciting uh but beyond that look

this whole Credit Suisse debate nonsense

oh my gosh watch my video on Credit

Suisse because I understand people

making the comparisons to Lehman

Brothers oh no the numbers somewhat

aligned okay be careful because remember

that when we look at credit default swap

charts those can Spike when companies

just straight up suck not necessarily

signs of uh systemic wide crises now

it's not to say put your head in the

sand and everything fine you know like

our total Global Financial system is

gonna be fine after all we saw UK had to

the UK had to get bailed out out by the

bank of England right and we were

definitely seeing drama around around

markets especially the real estate

market in China and now you've got uh

some relatively large Banks cracking

essentially but when you look at the

financials of this company

they suck at running the business that's

all I gotta say that's all I gotta say

actually I got a whole video on what I

say uh the other thing that we have to

pay attention to is the fact that as the

market is is kind of rotating somewhat

down right now we've got the NASDAQ down

about 1.4 percent uh all indices are red

here we are also seeing oil rise again

uh oil rent now that's the international

version up almost a full one percent and

that's because OPEC is now calling for

potential cuts by as much as 2 million

barrels a day and that's because as

Chinese demand for oil has gone down the

thesis has been oh oil is going to

plummet once we go into recessional oil

is going deployment oil demand because

people are going to spend less money on

traveling whether it's flying or cars or

manufacturing Plastics whatever you know

unless people buying them Barbie dolls

well anyway so now OPEC originally was

going to cut production by a million

barrels a day now they're trying to cut

production by two million barrels a day

now the actual amount of that could be a

lot less because some of their member

countries aren't actually producing at

full capacity so they won't be cutting

so we really only expect maybe like an

880

000 Barrel reduction per day so less of

an impact on actual Supply chains than

what sort of the headlines are implying

but still it's kind of just like Ugh

well at the same time we're getting

these these mixed messages in the

employment reports and we are seeing a

trend down it's still not convincing

enough to the FED on top of that you've

got OPEC you know trying to preserve

their income so what are they doing

they're pumping up inflation basically

by by cutting production it's all very

frustrating and I think we just go back

to honestly what I talked about in

January of 2020 uh two that's this year

and I regularly say this but this is

just a

a shitty year where we're going to be

like an anchor that's that's bouncing

along the bottom and uh I I think we're

you know when we come out of this we're

either gonna be a broken anchor and

we're gonna be out of it like literally

we just won't want to be part of the

market anymore or um we're gonna come

out a lot stronger you know obviously I

I hope uh you and all of us uh watching

uh come out a lot stronger and take

advantage of investing in Opportunities

like house hack near the bottom of the

market so we can go swoop up wedge deals

and do so at scale we've got some really

cool things planned for that so if

you're an accredited investor head over

to househack.com read the PPM sign up by

that DocuSign and uh if you're not

accredited wait till January thanks so

much for watching we'll see you soon

thanks bye