Major Tesla Stock Catalysts | The Next 90 Days.

Let's talk Tesla. It's been a minute.

We've done some big deep analysis on the

channel. A lot of folks wondering,

Kevin, what's the catalyst now to get

through 318? We've now, for the second

time, bounced off of 295 thanks to Elon

pooping on Donald Trump. But we have a

host of good catalysts on the horizon

for Tesla. Question is, are those

catalysts actually going to lead the

stock to go up? So, first and foremost,

the first thing that I think is a big

catalyst is that this big, beautiful

bill is going to pass. In my opinion,

that's actually great. Why? Because

Elon can stop pooping on the fact that

this bill is going to happen and it's

going to increase the debt. Elon's not

wrong. Yes, we should try to constrain

the debt, but deficit spending can lead

to economic growth. And frankly, if you

need something to be bullish about, not

only for Tesla stock, but also broadly,

Tax Foundation suggests that starting in

2026, our GDP will be 1.2 percentage

points higher because of the deficit

spending in the big beautiful bill. So

regardless of what we think about the

debt, the reality is we're basically

borrowing from the future to give to the

present and we're boosting our economy

at a pretty sensitive time in the

economy. Uh so that combined with once

the BBB passes uh Elon's negativity

towards Trump may wayne because Elon

will no longer have something to really

complain about with Trump. That's

probably a bullish catalyst or as we'd

like to say in the bullish catalyst.

Exactly. So BBB passing is actually a

positive catalyst for Tesla. Right. This

is great. Uh but in addition to that,

we've got a few other things that are

positive catalyst in the near term. The

uh September 30th EV credit expiration

of 7500 may be a bullish catalyst.

rationale here uh being you get some

reason to sort of rush in and buy uh a

new Tesla before the expiration of the

$7,500 credit, especially since the

Cybertruck is now included. Uh see, I

actually got the Cybertruck before the

$7,500 credit was included, but right

now you could get a $7,500 credit on the

Cybertruck, which is kind of cool. So to

me, this actually creates a pretty nice

catalyst for July, August, September

sales for Tesla. So Q3 could actually

get a nice little EV boost here because

of this EV credit uh uh you know,

expiration here. On top of that, you

have a Q4 December 31st uh residential

energy credit expiration. So this is

going to be that 30% in the big

beautiful bill. Well, in the inflation

reduction act and and previous acts

where basically you get 30% uh that you

can, you know, take as a tax credit when

you invest in home solar or home energy,

a lot of these residential energy

credits expire December 31st. So, I

think that creates some pull forward as

well for people to get their home energy

storage batteries or their solar

systems. Uh though that's also

questionable just because there are a

lot of homes that also have uh natural

gas lines that could benefit from just

using a Generrack generator. Uh I

personally think you know while while I

recognize Generrack generators aren't

they don't serve the same purpose as as

a battery for backup purposes you don't

have the sort of like home range anxiety

with a natural gas generator as you do

with a battery because the battery

you're waiting for that four hours of

usable solar that you're getting on a

regular basis. That's the average,

right? Generally, solar panels are rated

for about 4 to 4 and 1/2 hours of like

good energy deployment per day. When you

spread it out over the year, that makes

up for cloudy days as well. Yes, I

realize there are many days we have more

than four hours of light. I get it. Uh,

but functional direct energy solar, it's

usually rated for four to four and a

half hours. You could look it up. But

anyway, what's interesting is batteries

also help you reduce your uh higher peak

hour energy usage. So, if you fill up

your batteries with the sun around 10,

11, 12, 100 p.m., 2:00 p.m., and then

you utilize that energy in some of those

higher, more expensive energy periods

like 4, 5, 6, 7 p.m., those are usually

great opportunities for you to use your

batteries and offset some of the energy

you'd otherwise be using. And I think if

people make these calculations, they

might see, okay, if that credit's going

to go away, could be a good opportunity

to buy some Tesla solar uh walls, the

batteries, the power walls, as well as

solar panels before the end of the year.

I'm a big fan of solar and batteries.

Uh, and if I really wanted to be sort of

off-rid, I'd probably be solar batteries

and natural gas, right? I'd be in a

combination. Of course, technically

using natural gas, you're still on the

grid unless you were using propane. But

anyway, that's sort of just a more side

comment. So, I think these are actually

three really good catalysts here in the

short term. But there's some other

catalysts as well. Some of them not so

great, some of them more hopeful. Uh,

and so let's talk about those. The first

would be the Model Q. So, this is this

talk about potentially this newer Model

2ish, lowerpriced car that, you know,

there's there have been so many rumors

as Baron is talking about here that

we're going to get a Model 2 or a lowerc

cost Tesla, but we haven't seen it. We

haven't, you know, there there's been a

rumor we'll get like a twodoor version

of a Tesla or a hatchback. Although,

twodoor versions of cars aren't really

that popular in America. And Elon has

really dumped on the idea of a $25,000

car. So, I'm probably going to put this

as uh a maybe catalyst. We could call

it, you know, maybe we'll get that sort

of Model Q. Uh a newer, less expensive

vehicle would be a huge positive

catalyst for Tesla. Uh would be really,

really exciting. So, you've got a few

things that could really help us here.

the BBB passing the Q3 pull forward on

the electric vehicles, the Q4 pull

forward uh and then of course uh the

potential for Model 2, though I think

this is less likely. These are these are

good for positive catalysts. Uh and then

of course we have we have excitement

over uh robo taxi and uh Optimus, but

these are more I'd call them hype right

now. And that's not to be negative on

them in the future. just to be patient

and and realize that they're just more

in a hype cycle right now. The uh idea

about this sort of like write off

interest on car uh in 2026

uh thanks to the BBB. I don't actually

see this as that useful mostly because

when you go to tesla.com,

most of the cars they pitch indicate 0%

financing anyway. uh see 0% APR with FSD

the Cybertruck. This is actually a

little hard to read. Uh you really to

benefit most from this, you actually

ironically want a higher interest rate.

So most people seem to buy and finance

vehicles when they have the promotions,

which they don't always. See right here

you've got a 5.4 APR, which that helps.

I mean, if you put four grand down and

you finance this vehicle, you're

financing, let's see, cash, you're going

to finance, call it 40 $440ish,000 with

your taxes and stuff that you'll finance

$40,000.

We'll uh not advertise for a moment. Uh

it'll just make our numbers look a

little higher. Anyway, uh so we'll go

with a $40,000 loan quickly and just do

a quick little0554

interest rate, which rates might come

down. That'd be about $2,200 of savings

if uh you buy this in 2026 and it

qualifies for the Americanmade car loan

interest rate deduction. You're not

using this for business, just personal

write off. That might save you somewhere

around $6, $700 in actual cash, which is

like onetenth of the benefit you would

get from the $7,500 credit. So

unfortunately,

you know, to me, this is about onetenth

as valuable as the $7,500 credit. Like

the $7,500 tax credit is a huge huge

bullish catalyst. But once that $7,500

credit goes away going into like the

fourth quarter uh and next year,

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So, the uh death of the $7,500 credit is

not great because we are competing with

well, frankly, non-electric vehicles. I

hate to say it, but we we're past that

initial adoption of enthusiasts for EVs.

Now, we've really got to expand to

ideally like my opinion for the Tesla

market, you really want to kick the butt

of the Toyota buyer. you know, you want

to get that buyer that's looking for

lowmaintenance, which Tesla is, highly

reliable vehicle uh and uh competing

with your your Toyota uh you know, style

um

uh purchasers, this is critical, which I

mean, frankly, I mean, plug-in hybrid

over here for $33,000. I mean, I'd

rather have a Tesla personally. $28,000

for the Prius. I mean, that's good, but

it's still starting at 28,000. I mean, I

remember uh you know, 15 16 years ago,

these were starting at like $18,000.

That was the starting price, right? And

then obviously you trim up from there.

But uh this is the kind of person you

really want to attract to Tesla. And so

my hope is that, you know, by losing the

$7,500 credit, we could find another way

to become competitive to them. One of

the ways that you can become competitive

is uh and I I'll call this another

bullish catalyst is uh Elon uh getting

out of politics.

So I I think that's another bullish

catalyst and that hopefully then can

start attracting some of those Toyota

style buyers. That's important. But uh

the other negative to think about is

slow Optimus uh deployment. So this is a

big deal as well. We can actually see

I've got a few things saved right here

about Tesla and Optimus. So, apparently

Optimus is uh is is sort of revamping

how they're building their Optimus

robot, which is fine. I don't see that

as a negative catalyst. Uh there's a lot

of sort of drama about how information

from Chinese supply chain sources

indicate that Tesla is currently focused

on adjusting hardware and software

details, delaying some parts procurement

for about a month to two months. I don't

really think that's a big deal. I think

you should always be increasing uh you

know your your prototypes essentially

until you're ready to go to mass market,

which we're nowhere near ready to go to

mass market. I think a larger concern is

actually the following and this relates

to an MIT

uh sort of piece on humanoid robotics.

So listen to this. According to Tesla's

feedback to suppliers, Optimus still

faces hardware challenges including

overheating in some motor joints, low

load capacity in the dextrous hands, uh

short lifespan of transmission

components, and limited battery life.

All right, so like I want you to think

about this for a moment.

When we think about short lifespan in

transmission components, uh I'm way

oversimplifying here because we think

about like gears and cogs, right? But

think about, for example, the joint on

on an Apple, you know, AirPod case,

okay? So, just a normal case. Think

about this joint. This joint needs to be

able to open and close, you know,

whatever 10,000 times before it starts

getting rickety dicky and and, you know,

cracks or whatever. Uh but that's also

predicated on a human using like opening

closing this like what at most 10 times

a day maybe right depending on the usage

20 times a day. But with a humanoid

robotic what you're really doing is

you're moving each of your sort of

actuators or your hands or joints or

gears constantly. And the idea is you're

supposed to be able to do that 24/7 to

replace the work of a human 24/7. All

those gears are operating all of the

time. The battery the you well you're

better off honestly just plugging the

damn thing in. I actually think that's

what you should do is you should just

not worry about damn batteries in these

Optimus robots. Plug them in, you know,

have like a power cable that sticks in

their head so people other people don't

trip over it and it just goes up to some

kind of like guide wire up top and then

you don't have to worry about these

stupid battery lives. But, you know,

then you you still have to worry about

like overheating and joint motors,

you know, and then also the ability of

like, hey, yeah, it's cool to see the

Optimus pick up like a tennis ball or,

you know, something smaller, but can you

actually do this with heavier objects

like boxes of batteries or whatever?

Well, we'll see. So, these are all kind

of things that could somewhat delay some

of our long-term hope for Optimus robots

or just humanoid robots in general. On

the software side, Tesla may use a more

synthetic uh may use more synthetic data

to train robot models. I don't love

hearing more synthetic data. I think you

need more real world data, but whatever.

Uh they talk a little bit about here

Optimus is currently only used for

moving batteries and that's why they're

running into some of the problems,

right? With efficiency less than half of

that of human workers. So obviously it's

early days, but it's somewhat of a

problem, right? If your robots are

breaking down, they're half as good as

humans. There's still a lot of work to

do here. And this isn't to say that

humanoid robotics don't have a long-term

future. I certainly think they do. But

one of the problems that I look at is

really what MIT says, which I think is

very interesting. Humanoids are mostly

not intelligent. They just basically

give some examples here of how they're

very AB. But that's fine. I'm not so

worried about that. I don't really need

my robot to be intelligent. I don't

really care that my robot can talk to me

like Grock. My phone can do that. I just

need a robot to be able to be programmed

to do, you know, one task 10,000 times a

day, right? Uh and so MIT though, they

come up with this argument though that

the one of the downsides you have with

humanoid robots is the stronger you make

them and the longer the battery lasts,

the heavier they are and the more they

are likely to break down. This is why I

actually think you just shouldn't have

battery versions, at least in the early

days. They also then suggest that the

adoption of humanoid robotics is likely

to be really drawn out and slow, which

is a negative catalyst if that ends up

being true. For example, you know, while

Nvidia's Jensen Hong says that physical

AI is the future, like humanoid robots

or whatever, uh they make this argument

that it took 50 years to get to the from

the first robotic arm to the 1 millionth

robotic arm. And that's actually why,

you know, one of the reasons I was

talking this morning in the Meet Kevin

Alpha report, which you could obviously

you pay one time for and you get

lifetime access to it uh at meet

kevin.com. But one of the things I was

talking about this morning was Symbotic.

And this morning, right around here is

where I put out my alpha report, which

is right here at that 4298 line. And we

were talking bullishly on how Symbotic

could make a nice move today. Obviously,

today it made a fantastic move. It

skyrocketed from my literally my 4298

line all the way up to a close up of

13.5%.

Basically straight up all day long.

Well, it's I guess more like a parabola

or whatever we want to call it here. Uh

but almost $48, which is really

remarkable. And what I find so

interesting about this company is it's a

robotics company that's more sort of

purpose-built. So rather than this idea

of like hey a humanoid robot that's

going to go around and do everything

this sort of like generalpurpose robotic

it's just a more manufacturing company

or or manu warehouse enabling company I

should say that enables robots inside of

factories whether they're robotic arms

that can do repetitive tasks uh that

don't require batteries uh that you know

don't require uh all these smaller

servos or whatever to act like a human.

Instead, they're just they're made for

their purpose. They do it in the

position over and over again. Or you get

these right here. Uh let me show you

these right here. These are your sort of

like autonomous AI powered

uh robots that are basically just

forklifts, but they're on rails and they

just autonomously

move around and do their job. Like this,

I think, is smart. This is purpose-built

robotics. We're trying to replace

workers in a factory. So, we're going to

build a robot that does that job the

best. We don't need legs on this because

we can put it on rails. It doesn't need

to walk off the assembly line because it

doesn't need to go home and go to bed.

So, it doesn't need legs. And so, you

you remove here's some more of it. You

remove some of the complexity uh

involved in smaller robots with these,

you know, sort of ancillary components

that aren't really necessary. So, it's

one of the reasons I've been pretty

excited about Symbotic. That's not to

say that I'm not excited about uh Tesla.

That said, you know, the information

makes it a makes a fair point here. It

will be a long time before robo taxi

fairs can offset a decline and ensure

the company starts growing again. I

agree with this and it's one of the

reasons why I think one of the most

bullish things that you could really

have here would be the model 2. Now,

while I think this is really only, you

know, 20 to 30% likely,

I I would actually say it would be the

most bullish potential catalyst because

it maybe opens up the Tesla market to

more buyers. Uh, and it also gets that

revenue cycle going again. I mean,

there's talk revenue growth especially.

There's talk about the Cybert truck

potentially getting discontinued because

sales are so low. Uh, which is really

sad because I think it's a fantastic and

wonderful car, but I also recognize

that, you know, it's not everybody's cup

of tea. It's a little bit more of a

unique vehicle. Feels like a spaceship

on the inside. I've had no problems,

knock on wood, with with our Cybert

truck, and we love it. You know, the

kids love it. Uh, and and people really,

I mean, certainly attracts attention.

Some of it positive, some of it

negative. But uh here's another issue

we're finding with humanoids is the

figure AI drama of the last 2 months

that basically figure AI raised money at

like a $40 billion valuation. And so

everybody was freaking out because this

company with a $40 billion valuation in

the private market says they have a

robot working at BMW, but then uh a tech

correspondent from Fortune reached out

to BMW and BMW said that there's only

one humanoid robot working and it's not

even working during production hours.

The Wall Street Journal followed up and

then all of a sudden there were three

robots working some during production

hours and some not, but they're

basically doing really sort of nominal

pa tasks that like it's really not much

of a test at all. Uh and and so you know

this this was sort of a big slap in the

face to the robotics industry. Uh but

there's obviously a lot of hope uh

including Elon Musk saying I'd encourage

people to look beyond the bumps and

potholes of the road immediately ahead

of us. Lift your gaze and uh lift lift

your gaze to the bright shining citadel

on the hill. I I mean that sounds fancy

and I get it. Like the idea is basically

like hey if if you're you know you like

Tesla then you should believe in robo

taxis in an autonomous future and

optimist. Problem is I also agree with

people in that Tesla would be so well

positioned right now if we were selling

these mass affordable $25,000 cars while

at the same time doing robo taxis which

I think will take years to scale. And

this idea that well because we're using

vision we can scale faster. That's

great. But even if we do accomplish

rapid scaling, which is not likely, but

even if we did, this idea that demand is

going to keep expanding for for robotic

rides basically, and keep the money that

people are willing to pay at 50 cents

per mile to me is is kind of ludicrous.

I think what'll happen is taxi fairs

will plummet and it, you know, running

Optimus or running robo taxi businesses

will actually become a very low margin

business. So, what I would rather see

Tesla do, what I think is a much higher

margin business, is manufacture

uh and sell robo taxis and manufacture

and sell Optimus robots. Actually

operating the network, I don't think is

that brilliant. Mind you, you also need

the charging infrastructure for these

cars if you expand this and and you

know, cleaning infrastructure or

otherwise customer service and

otherwise. So, while I'm hopeful, I see

Tesla as one of the most great American

manufacturers, and I really hope that we

can get back to just make and sell good

stuff again. I like the Cybertruck. I

just wish we would take these skills and

focus on the Model 2. Unfortunately, and

I hate to say this, I don't want to

sound like, you know, some like Elon

hater or whatever, I think the Model 2

uh was basically ignored because Elon

got distracted. You know, he got

distracted with X, he got distracted

with politics, he got distracted with uh

you know, I don't know, probably XAI to

some extent. Uh actually, probably a lot

of extent. This is like this has

consumed Elon's last three years and I

think he gave up a lot of Tesla moat

because of that. So I'm a little bit

disappointed uh by that. I'm not so

worried about Chinese competition. Uh

mostly because we we don't really allow

the importation of Chinese vehicles. So

I'm less so worried about that. Uh

somebody else here writes also humanoid

robots require advanced semiconductors

for sensors. Uh you need

Yeah. I I mean fine. Yeah, robotics and

AI emerge in four to seven years. It may

need quantum comput there. There are a

lot of thoughts about how long robotics

will take. It'll take a while.

Uh and this is why I think purpose-built

robots like a company such as Symbotic

takes advantage of now is one of the

reasons why some of these robotic

companies can really take off at a

substantially lower valuation. In part

also because Tesla's valuation is not

cheap right now. Now, I started pitching

Symbotic when it was trading for like a

1.3 peg or something very low because I

I'm I like to be very valuation based.

It's more than doubled since then. More

than doubled. Uh which is great. It's

it's a wonderful thing and I'm happy for

everybody who invested in it. Remember,

you can go to mem.com, get your alpha.

Uh but uh let's take a look at the

valuation on Tesla right now. So, if I

go look at

Tesla and we grab a current, we've done

this before. It's usually trades above a

3 and 12 to 4 peg, but let's do a

current. 315 divided by 1.87. It's

trading for 160 time 168 times forward

price to earnings. So, that would be the

end of 2025.

And let's assume growth, which I think

is high, but assume growth of 40% just

to make it simple. We're at a 4.2 peg.

Ah, 420 peg. Let's go. So anyway, those

are just some thoughts on Tesla.

Hopefully that's insightful. Bullish

catalyst.

Kevin is very talented, but I don't know

it's going to be him, but he's a very

talented. Why not advertise these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.