The Banking Crisis JUST got EVEN Worse | Fed, Bank, & Crypto Collapse [SVB]

got to talk Silicon Valley Bank and all

the craziness that's not just happened

yesterday but that is now unfolding

after the collapse of Silicon Valley

Bank so we're going to be talking about

what's happening with the Federal

Reserve what are they pricing in who

just got fired at the Federal Reserve

we're going to be talking about what the

Insiders at Silicon Valley Bank are

doing what kind of a talk there is in

terms of which businesses might actually

be affected and these are quite a few

public companies uh we'll also talk

about potentially what's going to happen

on Monday and what the heck is going on

with usdc uh the circle backed stable

coin that has potentially Now depegged

by a total of 8.8 percent as of the time

of this recording it's pretty remarkable

on top of that you've got Venture

capitalists absolutely freaking out

complete disaster and sh9t show so let

me give you a very quick synopsis

basically you had a bank that had

somewhere around 211 billion dollars in

assets and then when they actually

marked to Market which basically means

like hey you're saying you have all

these assets but what's the true fair

market value of those when they did that

they were basically insolvent once

rumors started spreading that uh oh this

bank is insolvent people started getting

worried about their ability to retain

access to their cash on hand with this

bank that represented 50 percent of

silicon well close to 50 percent of

Silicon Valley startups they say they

they have almost all of the banking

needs for about 44 percent of Silicon

Valley baked startups and that's because

when they give startups loans they'll

have covenants in their loan agreements

that say Hey if you want to be able to

work with our loans our easy lines of

credit and our easy lending for startup

you have to have all of your banking at

Silicon Valley Bank so in other words

you've got about this 44 group of

startups that just primarily bank at

Silicon Valley Bank they were the go-to

people for startup loans and you

couldn't have a banking relationship

somewhere else which what's really weird

is now that the bank has collapsed sort

of makes you wonder oh crap if the bank

collapsed then people even though they

knew they should probably get out

probably didn't get out because that

would violate their loan covenants of

taking your money out of the bank right

so imagine if you're a business right

you're a startup and you've got a

million dollars of of payroll every

month that you gotta pay that's 250 000

a week in payroll that you have to pay

every Friday potentially so let's say

you have money over at the bank and

you're like well crap I'm I'm actually

using a line of credit to fund my

business right now because I'm a startup

and we're in a recessionary environment

and new Venture Capital funding is

pretty dry okay Silicon Valley Bank is

is falling apart oh no maybe I should

get my money out but wait if I get my

money out I lose access to my lines of

credit I can't get my money yet then

you're stuck now you lose access to

everything as the company collapses not

only do you lose access to your line of

credit but you lose access to whatever

cash you had left it's a complete sh9t

show and there are some people going as

far as saying they this what has just

happened sets a vast majority of Silicon

Valley startups back potentially 10

years because think about it you got

phenomenal potential startup ideas that

now don't actually have access to

Capital operate anymore potentially they

have to lay off staff if they don't get

access to that capital and it's not just

access to the cash it's also access to

the credit lines right so even if via

FDIC on Monday somehow we get cash out

if they don't have access to the the

easy lending anymore you can actually

really crimp the entire startup space

and you're not getting new Venture

investment not really I mean you are

getting some in sort of like a chat GPT

AI style companies but to me the

valuations are so frothy over there

anyway that I wouldn't recommend doing

that at this point but what's remarkable

is this potential idea that my goodness

how many startups like even companies

that have really matured from startup

stage like matterport bill.com Roblox

blocks Roku these are all massive

companies that started in Silicon Valley

and have a lot of association with

Silicon Valley Bank matterport has

stopped sending payments uh through

Silicon Valley Bank they used to have

their accounts payable go into Silicon

Valley bank now they're changing A banks

obviously because the bank's going into

receivership you've got Roblox that was

exposed to Silicon Valley Bank by quite

a bit Roblox had about 150 million

dollars at Silicon Valley bank that only

represents about five percent of their

cash Lending Club at about 21 million

rocket lab had 38 million that's about

eight percent of their cash matterport

switching banks to JP Morgan

Etsy was using Silicon Valley Bank for

some of its uh some of its providers for

some for payouts to sellers Roblox had

we mentioned about five percent of their

casts this was an interesting one Roku

said they had about 25 of their cash

sitting in a Silicon Valley bank account

how coach one fourth of their cash and

keep in mind roku's still burning money

that's one of the complaints that I have

about Roku is they're burning money uh

kind of it makes me a little nervous

Sunrun was a company that potentially

has 15 exposure to Silicon Valley Bank

and these are all companies that have a

lot more than the 250 000 FDIC Insurance

limit remember you get 250 000 of FDIC

Insurance limit per person per account

and that includes potential accrued

interest at your owed so if you're a big

startup and you've got tens of millions

of dollars there you might not have

access to 99 of your Capital at Silicon

Valley Bank for for a very long period

of time if ever remember the way FDIC

receivership works is FDIC is taking

over the bank as we speak right now on

Monday they will actually open up the

branches again and you can bet people

are just going to be queuing up and

lighting up to get their money out in

fact that's exactly what they were doing

on Friday you could see this uh Twitter

let's see here look at this Twitter

video right here you can just people

lining up queuing outside of these Banks

there it is Silicon Valley Bank and you

had a lot of this it wasn't just this

you had a lot of posts like this

circulating on Twitter about people

queuing up at the bank to get their

money out to the point where security

guards at these Banks had to lock the

doors and put signs in like basically

saying come back Monday now at the same

time as you had all this drama going on

listen to this this CEO sold 11 of his

shares in the company

3.57 million dollars just 12 days ago so

the CEO probably saw the writing on the

wall that they were insolvent I mean

after all remember you could look at

their Q4 earning statement and when you

look at their Q4 earnings statement you

could actually see how close to

insolvent they were in December and

things have only gotten worse since

December and now we find out that the

CEO sold 11 of his shares and he hadn't

been selling in years just all of a

sudden happens to sell right before this

collapse doesn't seem sass at all

doesn't at all seem like Insider trade

yeah nothing go nothing to see here

folks and then on top of that the CFO

sold about uh 375 000 of shares also 12

days ago so something happened 12 days

ago I think where they woke up and

realized

honey we've got a little bit of a

problem at the bank maybe we ought to uh

since we know about it since we're

insiders maybe we ought to show some of

our shares but it wasn't just the CEO or

the CFO you also had the CMO uh selling

early last month and uh or uh sorry it

was uh yeah early February and late

January also selling all three of these

top Executives selling out uh at least

some of their stake right before this

collapsed it's not a good look the CEO

by the way was apparently a director at

the San Francisco Federal Reserve this

shows you how deep this Insanity goes so

let me say that again the CEO of Silicon

Valley Bank was one of the directors at

the San Francisco Federal Reserve and he

was promptly fired after this uh this

disaster this banking uh crisis and

pretty bad look to be selling shares of

the company that you know is about to go

to hell but let me just quickly show you

again how you could see how close they

were to insolvency as of December 31st

which remember we're almost through the

first quarter so these financials are

already like

71 days old so you know the people on

the inside are looking at the financials

going oh no it's getting even worse but

look at this all you have to do is it

like you can make this so so simple you

go over here and look at total assets

211.7 billion dollars you look at the

total liabilities right here right 195

oops you can't see it there we go so you

see the difference right here that's

about 16 billion dollars right total

assets 211 minus 195 that's about 16

billion dollars of a difference right

but wait a minute folks see this number

right here this 91 billion that 91

billion is not actually worth 91 million

or a billion in my opinion this is just

straight up fraud right here by the way

how do I know this is not worth 91

billion because it literally says right

here hell to maturity Securities fair

value of

76.1 billion dollars now yes if they the

reason they can get away with this is

because technically if they do hold

these maturities to or sorry these

Securities to maturity they're bonds

okay so it's kind of like hey if you

have a three year bond if you hold it

all the way for three years yes it's

technically worth 91 billies but if

everybody all of a sudden needs cash

because we're in a recessionary

environment the fed's raising rates like

crazy well you're gonna have to start

selling and liquidating some of your

health and maturity Securities and those

are going to become what are known as

available for sale Securities whoa

fantastic well there goes the 16 billion

dollar difference you had it leaves

about a bill in the difference but it

shows you as of December 31st they were

basically insolvent already based on the

public financial statements of December

31st quite remarkable the insider

trading is pretty remarkable as well but

another thing that's pretty wild is uh

with the fact that you had 42 billion

dollars of cash withdrawn in just one

day from Silicon Valley Bank that's

pretty remarkable but on top of that

apparently somewhere around a 3.3

billion dollars of the assets backing

usdc

are at Silicon Valley Bank and as a

result now you've got what looks like a

a d-peg occurring on usdc because people

are questioning how many how much cash

is actually available to back uh the

stablecoin usdc which is kind of wild

because I don't think anybody would have

ever thought that oh my gosh usdc would

go before tether goes everybody always

makes fun of tether but it's pretty

remarkable that usdc right now is the

one that's in deepeg mode look at this

91.3 cents is where it sits right now

down 8.76 now in case you're not

familiar with stable coins this is bad

this is an example of an unstable coin

and I mean In fairness it lost its

backing potentially at least some of its

backing you know you've got about what a

33 billion dollar market cap over here

for usdc you've got about 3.3 billion

dollars potentially that are evaporating

so the market seems to be making that

sort of adjustment now a lot of people

are trying to Arbitrage play this in

fact yesterday tether was was sitting at

1.0 seven dollars in some D5 markets so

you could have literally bought it you

could have bought tether on something

like coinbase and then sold it for 1.07

for a seven Cent profit uh per Buck

which is insane a seven percent instant

Profit just playing Arbitrage in the D5

space so a lot of arbitrageurs have been

at work here uh and that is uh generally

arbitraging leads to a consistent one

dollar Peg but not when potentially ten

percent of the assets are oopsie

doopsies gone so that's pretty scary if

we go back here a little bit and just

look at uh Bitcoin Bitcoin actually

holding up through this and so is

ethereum in the last 24 hours both of

them roughly flat if anything net net

ethereum's up in the last 24 which is

pretty remarkable you've got uh busd has

been pretty stable along with uh tether

again at some point tether in the D5

markets was uh deep hagging but beyond

that hey uh usdc at 91 cents it's a red

flag it's it's shows you that stable

coins we we can't 100 trust stable coins

just yet this is why one of the things

that I talked about regularly since

January of 2022 is I think you're better

off in short-term treasuries if you're

looking to yield Farm you know six month

T bills basically then you are in stable

coins because the time you're going to

have stress in crypto is now during a

recessionary environment nobody knows

how the cards will fall but this is

where the cards are starting to fall now

you have these contagion risks as well

not just for crypto but you have these

contagion risks around what the CEO of Y

combinator is suggesting he was on CNBC

complaining about this idea that oh my

gosh we could end up seeing 10 years

essentially of of startups setback in

other words so many startups that are

potentially on the cusp of of working

towards profitability or launching new

products or Services might all be

getting set back and we don't know the

implications of all of these yet it but

think about it a lot of companies in

Silicon Valley provide apis that are the

foundation for a lot of different goods

and services that we use now we don't

know for example if stripe is affected

uh so far it doesn't seem like they are

they haven't said anything uh doesn't

mean they aren't though but let's just

say for example you uh use stripe to

check out on Shopify uh that is you're a

merchant and you use stripe and all of

your Ecom stores what if all of a sudden

stripe lost like Roku 25 of its capital

and they had to freeze some of their

their you know they couldn't pay some of

their bills and some of their servers

froze you could see how this sort of

contagion can spread through because now

all of a sudden the apis break for

processing payments all of a sudden that

now you have Shopify stores breaking all

of a sudden now you're lowering GDP

because everything's basically Frozen

and it's a wall you lose a few days you

can really start pushing the economy

into an actual recession because you're

robbing the market of GDP

kind of crazy so that's something to

think about I mean really you could take

our our annual GDP and divide it by

about 365 and and you can find that okay

yeah we've we've got you know somewhere

around uh 65 billion bucks a day of GDP

so every single day is worth a lot of

goods and service at Dallas uh so you

could really start breaking the economy

pretty quickly because it doesn't take

many of those days not obviously that

the entire economy would go to zero on

those days but it doesn't take many of

those days to be shaved off because

things are broken uh to potentially

where you're not recouping that when

things are repaired again and does that

then potentially lead to other smaller

bank failures uh whether that's a first

Republic or Pacific Bank or you know

these are companies that are seeing

their stocks plummet because of this

fear that oh the contagion is going to

take them out as well now the hope is

that FDI receivership solves this on

Monday that is hope uh personally I

don't think hope is an investing

strategy but the idea is that I mean

it's all you have right now if you're

affected by by Silicon Valley Bank the

idea is that on Monday when the bank

goes into receivership hopefully FDIC is

basically sort of a bailout mechanism

for banks because Venture capitalists

specifically people like David Sachs are

freaking out and the reason they're

freaking out is well partially in part

because somebody like David Sachs does

support a lot of startups that's their

business right the all-in Pod these

these folks they work regularly with

Venture uh as Venture capitalists for

and in the private Equity markets for

startups and if all of a sudden a lot of

their companies are now getting reamed

or potentially risking bankruptcy that's

bad for them but for them they are

making these strong arguments right now

that hey the FED needs to come in the

banks need to come in and bail out or or

the Federal Reserve Banks and the larger

Banks need to come out come in

potentially even the government and bail

out Silicon Valley Bank or other banks

that are potentially at risk to prevent

everybody from panicking I mean ideally

if this could just end up being look

Silicon Valley Bank went under much like

an FTX it went under it's fine it

doesn't take anything else with it fine

of course with FTX it took a lot of

things with it block VI Voyager Genesis

a lot of companies got destroyed because

FTX went under and the fear is that

similar kind of Destruction could happen

here and so this argument that's being

made is hey you know why not just make

uh have FDIC come in bail everyone out

and give people the faith that uh we are

not going to end up having more Bank

runs that's the idea right uh because

after all the last thing people want is

the fear that uh oh if it can happen to

Silicon Valley Bank the largest bank the

biggest bank failure now since 20 uh or

2008 well then it could happen uh to to

any local bank any Regional Bank now

when I uh when I was at a dinner

yesterday with Kathy Wood I asked her

opinion on this because I one of the big

concern that I have is it's not just the

contagion that it could spread to these

other Banks it's also the fact that

Silicon Valley Bank probably has to sell

somewhere around 80 billion dollars and

available for sale Securities and held

to maturity Securities both those

together

yikes because here's the thing if you

have available for sale Securities

that's one thing that was only about

maybe 10 15 of the balance sheet of

Silicon Valley Bank you take a loss on

those as they did they took their 1.5

billion dollar write down they tried to

raise some money whatever uh and then

that way you raise some Capital but the

real issue becomes uh oh what happens

when you take those hell to maturity

Securities you weren't thinking about

selling but now FDIC comes in it starts

liquidating those bonds well you could

see a total of somewhere around 80

billion mortgage-backed Securities hit

the market now how does that affect you

as an individual well technically right

now it's creating so much fear that a

lot of folks believe uh oh well that's

it the federal reserve's terminal rate

is going to come down rate expectations

are being cut we went from 5.65 to

somewhere around 5.29 now all of a

sudden we're pricing in a rate cut in

December again the bond market is

literally pricing in a rate cut in

December so you saw this massive

collapse of Treasury yields yesterday I

think the 10-year treasury was down to

the tune of 21 bips which is just insane

yeah 21.9 bips down back to 3.7 we were

just at 4.1 a week and a half ago so

this insane drop in yields which some

folks are saying oh well I mean that's

good for Real Estate right that's going

to drive mortgage rates down not

necessarily because even though usually

mortgage rates align with the 10-year

Treasury and are generally in alignment

so the 10-year goes up the mortgage

rates go up right 10-year goes down

mortgage rates go down but wait a minute

if all of a sudden you have 80 billion

dollars of commercial and mortgage and

residential mortgage-backed Securities

that have to get dumped you could

actually see the value of those bonds

plummet which drives the yields up for

mortgage-backed Securities which could

potentially actually drive up uh

mortgage rates for for uh new home or

commercial buyers or even variable

interest rate loans and that is called

the widening of the spread between the

10-year and what mortgage rates actually

are usually they get to a point of

alignment and there's a set spread but

if that spread widens you could actually

see higher real estate rates while you

have lower mortgage rates because all of

a sudden people aren't wanting to touch

commercial or residential

mortgage-backed Securities anymore now

when I was at dinner with Kathy Wood I

asked her specifically I go isn't there

a risk that the largest eight Banks

which the largest I specifically asked

about the largest eight because as we've

researched and talked about before the

largest eight Banks go undergo the

strongest and most stringent stress

tests at the Federal Reserve JPMorgan

City Wells Fargo Goldman uh Bank of

America right these sorts of banks HSBC

they go under the most severe and

scrutinizing stress tests from the

Federal Reserve and so I asked Kathy I

said hey is is it not a risk that these

larger Banks potentially even in the

stress tests don't actually have the

appropriate write Downs made in the

stress test for cmbs and and MBS

mortgage Securities and Kathy had this

interesting point she said the thing is

after the Great Recession and our bazel

3 Financial requirements especially for

the biggest of the banks the biggest

banks right now only hold about seven

percent of commercial mortgage-backed

Securities and we specifically focus in

on Commercial mortgage-backed Securities

because we're thinking vacant offices

those are the ones getting hit the worst

right that's really where you get the

worst of the liquidation so uh she

mentioned that

larger Banks only hold about seven

percent of their balance sheet exposure

or have about seven percent exposure to

commercial mortgage-backed Securities

whereas smaller Regional Banks said

about 25 percent and one of the reasons

she said there was such a difference was

that because of the new requirements

maybe back in the past all banks sat

somewhere around 15 percent let's say

mortgage-backed Securities for

commercial uh but because of the new

requirements on on banks on the larger

eight at the largest eight you actually

saw their commercial mortgage-backed

security Holdings go down to about seven

percent on average uh whereas at the

small Regional Banks they picked up the

slack and they went up to about 25 so

potentially that contagion is worse for

regional Banks than it is for the big

Banks so Kathy's not a believer that

this is this is really an element of of

widespread contagion or some sort of

sort of systemic risk big believer that

the financial system is still extremely

sound I agree with her I just would not

be associated with smaller Banks right

now which I feel bad I feel bad for all

their smaller Banks but look when the

writing is on the wall and there's smoke

there's usually fire and so I would not

recommend keeping Too much exposure now

to small banks in fact I wouldn't even

want to rely on the FDIC limits now I

know a lot of people are like look FDIC

is great the reason you like FDIC is

because they're going to come in like at

least you have an FDIC unlike FTX right

but if you have an FDIC at least you can

have some form of essentially bailout

protection and get some of your money

back eventually hopefully that's right

away but we're not sure if it's actually

going to be right away so the big

question is okay how bad do things get

now Joe Biden did come out yesterday and

I thought this was really remarkable Joe

Biden came out yesterday and said

Kevin's course is on building your

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linked down below and you get lifetime

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programs and you're like man I really

have a question for Kevin on this I'll

ask him in the last streams or maybe he

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that out down below but that's not

actually what Biden said what Biden

actually said on the same day is we're

having all these contagion fears is he

says I'm confident CPI will be in good

shape next week now I thought that was

really interesting because

Joe Biden doesn't typically come out and

give us a spoiler of what the inflation

report is going to look like on Tuesday

but Joe Biden literally just gave us a

spoiler and said he's confident CPI will

be in good shape next week now that

either it means one of two things if he

has no idea what the report is going to

show it could just be BS politics right

but he's going to look like a an idiot

if it comes in hot next week right

so I actually think it's more likely

that Joe Biden has a little bit of a

heads up in terms of what's going on in

the CPI report and the reason they might

be okay essentially pre-leaking some of

the CPI data to Biden is because if

Biden can come out and say hey CPI is

going to be good next week that actually

relaxes financial markets it buys

financial markets some time to stabilize

so it's actually a sort of a

manipulation of markets really but as

long as it's true it's great if we get

rug pulled on Tuesday well wow okay now

you just can't trust anything the

government says which I specifically

worded that line like that because you

should be skeptical skeptical about

everything the government says but

anyway

he is confident that CPI will be in good

shape next week that would be very

embarrassing if he would he comes out

and says that and he's wrong so I don't

think he would make that I don't think

he would make a statement if he didn't

know I think he I think he got a thumbs

up

and the reason he got a thumbs up is to

help the fed and banking Regulators

maintain some Financial stability

because the worst case scenario is not

oh the president just leaked CPI data

that's not the worst case scenario the

real worst case scenario is a real

financial crisis again

right that will lead to insane numbers

of job losses the recession like we

haven't seen for the last 14 15 years

Donald Trump will end up being right

remember what Donald Trump said when

during the 2020 election he says hey if

Biden gets in you're going to have

potentially a 1929 style recession

oops uh anyway

so that's that's potentially a positive

right and at least again we have FDIC I

can't understate that point compared to

uh in in crypto where when FTX collapsed

there was no protection the same is true

for stable coins they're really there

really isn't technically protection now

the idea is that maybe you get passed

through FDIC Insurance maybe but it's

not actually you that is FDIC insured

it's technically supposed to be the

deposits that are insured but again if

Circle has 3.3 billion dollars at

Silicon Valley Bank and Trust what are

they going to get 250 000 of FDIC

Insurance what a joke again a lot of

people uh and uh Wall Street types

clamoring for this idea that oh my gosh

we need to bail out we need to bail out

as soon as possible personally I'm

actually not the biggest believer that

that's the right move right now I think

that uh FDIC can can uh prove that it

could support Port its Mission which is

protecting people up to 250 000

unfortunately somewhere on 95 percent of

people uh that have deposits at uh

Silicon Valley Bank and Trust have more

than 250 000 of deposits uh that sucks

uh and then on top of that FDIC really

only has about 1.7 percent of the

liquidity in the banking system so if

you had a larger crisis in the banking

system you'd have a you'd have some

pretty big problems uh but uh and by the

way here's the screenshot of that uh

where where Circle also shows you in the

usdc reserve report uh that they hold

money not just at Silicon Valley Bank

but they also hold money ad look at that

folks silvergate bank now you might

remember because I covered silvergate

Bank two days in a row about three days

ago I covered silver uh silvergate and

basically the liquidation of silvergate

uh you know Silicon Valley bank took all

all the fun like it took all the story

and the excitement uh I mean it's so

exciting I started tweeting things like

this uh here's a picture of a Silicon

Valley Bank credit card and I tweeted

today I started paying all my bills

through this new buy now pay later firm

sorry I have to make stupid jokes

because it's fun uh but uh but anyway uh

you know another thing too is I was

looking at Robin Hood and they haven't

replied yet but I tweeted Robin Hood and

I tweeted them this picture I said which

banks are in your network and I said hey

I know your cash deposit sweeps are in

these Banks right here Goldman HSBC

Wells Fargo Citibank blah blah blah and

it says that as of this January 31st

2022 uh we we use these Banks and we

might change them it does say we'll let

you know in advance if we change them

but what if they forgot to change them

you know what what if all of a sudden

some of the brokerages like a wealth

front or an M1 Finance have uh um you

know potentially some exposure to these

companies we just we just don't know uh

so anyway here's just a screenshot

example of uh David sacks freaking out

where's Powell where's Yellen stop this

crisis now announced that all depositors

will be safe uh Place Silicon Valley

Bank with a top four Bank do this before

Monday open or there will be Contagion

and crisis will spread uh people in the

uh in the comments aren't very very

happy about that because when you get to

the comments you get people saying

things like this and and just so you

know when I like things on Twitter it's

not because I actually like it it's it's

just because I'm kind of curious I want

to get people's perspective look at this

one just incredible billionaires and

their corrupt cronies begging to get

bailed out by taxpayers and hard-working

Savers from their own Reckless

delusional stupidity after having dumped

the worst companies in history on them I

mean potentially a little extreme but

but you know it's it is interesting I

mean how quickly we're jumping into this

idea of oh let's uh let's quickly bail

out let's quickly bail out right uh and

in the past some of the Venture

capitalists that are now begging for

bailouts were actually anti-bailouts

during the covet era so you kind of have

a little bit of that um that irony going

on uh which is is kind of not surprising

because you know it's it's when you're

affected uh you're you're much more

interested in uh getting help than when

somebody else is affected right like you

care about losing your own money and not

so much about somebody else losing money

which is terrible but I mean quite

frankly it's the truth uh you know but

then you have people even tweeting stuff

like this here's somebody Bob Elliott he

says the U.S banking system is built on

the expectation that Equity involvement

holders except Bank economic risk and

depositors blah blah blah basically

saying like hey man like this is bad

like people people should you know do

really good due diligence and the

banking system is set up under the basis

that people do good due diligence of of

Banks and that's what makes the whole

system work and he literally said that

he says the word here that a financial

investors in Banks do the necessary

diligence to quantify the bank risk I I

wrote lost you at diligence because I

actually don't think most people on Wall

Street do a lot of actual fundamental

analysis there's a reason why in our

course member live streams almost on a

daily basis I do fundamental analysis

with everyone because it to me it's a

Lost Art In fact when uh when I had

dinner with Kathy Kathy would one of the

things she mentioned was how frustrated

she was that in 2015 she went to an ETF

conference and she's looking around like

where are all the Bloomberg terminals

where all the researchers and she's

right most people on Wall Street aren't

actually doing real fundamental due

diligence it's it seems like it's more

of a marketing game than it is one of

actual due diligence uh so I I thought

that was very interesting but but this

is the kind of stuff that you're seeing

in sort of the debates that you're

seeing online at the same time as you

have uh uh you know the the Insiders

essentially cashing out of their shares

and it's really scary but in my opinion

and I've reiterated this a few times now

but yesterday I mentioned uh oh gosh at

this point about 13 hours ago I

mentioned no sorry 25 hours ago I

mentioned that this collapse the near

collapse yesterday morning that now

collapse in my opinion increases the the

likelihood of not just a 25 BP hike but

I think there's a greater percent chance

that as long as CPI comes in good we

could be seeing a zero percent hike as a

greater percent chance than uh than the

50 BP High

that's my theory uh that is definitely

my theory someone here says DD was never

an art uh I think due diligence is

absolutely an art uh there there

fundamental analysis uh generally is

based on assumptions and uh and

assumptions are uh are different for

everybody right and so when you have

something that's different for everybody

they really are it really is an art and

so that's important to remember is that

when when one person looks at a

discounted cash flow uh State you know

analysis uh your assumptions going into

that are going to be vastly different

than somebody else's what are you using

for Opex is your operating leverage

increasing or decreasing what's your

Revenue growth what's your discount rate

I mean there is no

one size fits-all way to actually do due

diligence and I think that's where most

people just don't do any diligence which

is quite unfortunate uh somebody here

says is asking about my startup uh if

househack goes to two billion dollars as

a market cap well you get a house hike

tattoo sure

uh thank you for that uh anyway so

really really crazy uh stuff here with

with the Silicon Valley bang and uh

hopefully on Monday the contagion is

limited the last thing we want to hear

on Monday is that other banks are

starting to have issues but let me be

very clear okay and I'm not trying to

spread fear I am trying to be a business

person providing what I believe is a

reasonable suggestion

I would not have any of my money with a

smaller bank right now I would have all

of my money in a tier one Bank warranty

bills that's it t bills tier One Bank

that's it