We have JUST 25 Days Left | Complete Economic Reset.

But why is the market going a little

poopy dupy and squirrely today? Well, a

lot of it has to do with what Goldman

just said about jobs and what ADP told

us along with other uncertainties like

of course Corref telling us that

multiple of their data centers just

don't apparently have enough people to

complete their jobs and therefore they

have to delay revenues and that was

something that took away a little bit of

a supportive toothpick for the economy.

See, I've been of this mindset that the

economy is sort of like like this this

giant builtup dome of success right now.

The problem is a lot of that support

feels a little toothpicky, like there's

not a lot of support to it. Uh, and the

way we reconcile that is by looking at

these actual jobs reports and trying to

look under the hood to see, well, what's

going on in here? What did we get this

morning? What did Goldman just say?

We're going to talk about that. Also

though, I got to shout out the alpha

report because this morning while the

market was green on coreweave, or at

least we were recovering here on core. I

said, don't trust the pre-market. I have

a feeling institutions are going to dump

coreweave and it's going to fall to this

line right here 90.07.

It has not only done exactly that and

the cues have gone red with this, which

is something else we expected. Uh, but

we've gotten a double bottom on that

line. you actually watch my live

streams, you'll see this happen. You

know, these lines have been there for a

while. That's pretty remarkable. So, if

you don't have the alpha report yet, go

to meekke.com and join that. Make sure

you get all the courses on building your

wealth and the alpha report delivered to

you every day before the market opens

up. So, anyway, what's remarkable here

is the jobs data and the econom

economist warning on, hey, is it

potentially time for a recession again?

Nobody wants to hear that. But look at

some of the Goldman data this morning.

Goldman comes out and the Wall Street

Journal put together a good piece of

this. Uh but Goldman came out this

morning and suggested that we might

actually be at

50,000

jobs for uh you know the this this

October jobs report. Now that's not

good. That piece is right here. The US

likely lost 50,000 jobs in October,

Goldman Sachs says. Now, that's their

estimate. Now, remember, we're missing a

lot of actual labor data, right? If we

jump over to some of the numbers we were

putting together this morning, we can

actually see the trends of this. So,

first of all, look right here. These are

all the reports we're missing right now.

We are missing November, October, and

September. Those jobs reports are

missing. So the only thing we can do is

we can look at the official labor

reports for the United States and this

has been the trajectory of the official

labor reports straight down. Usually

once we fall under a 100,000 we're

pretty close to a recession. However, we

just had a little bit of a wrench thrown

in the gears. We had a massive

deportation shift, a closing of the

borders, and a huge change of

immigration policies. As a result, what

you end up with is this collapse in

average job uh jobs created in the

United States where in the last three

months of jobs data that we've had,

we've actually been at 29,000

jobs, which is pretty low. So, if you

look at the data here at the, you know,

from the beginning of the year on, so if

we started January, we've actually been

closer to creating about 74,000 jobs per

month. That's collapsed down to 29,000

jobs per month in the last 3 months.

Now, that could be normal because maybe

that's where the break even labor report

is. But negative50,000,

that would be well below the break even

rate and a warning sign if we actually

get this. This is one of the reasons I'm

bearish for after the economy reopens. I

don't actually think that we're going to

get the economy, you know, like the

government reopens. It's not the

economy, the government reopens. And

it's not like we're going to get the

data right away. It takes a while to

compile all of this, but once the data

comes out, that's probably the biggest

bearish catalyst that we have to get

through. We have to get through that

catalyst of getting all this data.

Specifically, we're going to get the

September jobs report and the October

jobs report. Those are already due. And

then we're going to get in the first

week of December, we should be getting

the November jobs report, which will be

right before the Fed meeting, which

right now we are only pricing in a 67%

chance of a rate cut success

as well in the past on the channel that

people might try to Add back in the loss

of government jobs. Okay. Well,

according to Goldman Sachs, the loss of

government jobs wasund,000

was 100,000 positions. Well, in that

case, you'd have a BLS October report

that aligns at 50,000 with the ADP

report at 42,000.

But this is where we're kind of like,

okay, well, which is it? Because when we

look at the ADP report, we also get

mixed signals on the ADP report. Because

the ADP report on the weekly basis that

we got this morning is like, "Oh, hey

guys. Uh the uh ADP report on a weekly

basis between September 25th and October

25th is negative 11,000 on an, you know,

sort of a moving average basis here. But

the ADP report for October told us we

had 42,000 jobs. 37,000 of which happen

in the Pacific Coast, mostly in tech

jobs. So then it makes you wonder, okay,

did we get a bunch of hiring at the end

of October? Was there like hiring boom

in the last week of October? That's not

reflected this year. Or were there a

bunch of layoffs at the end of

September? Like what's going on here?

Because now we're being told it's

negative again. The numbers are all

freaking over the place. And it's really

annoying because it's like, well, which

damn thing is it? It's like, yes, the

ADP trend is trending down. Yes, the BLS

jobs report is trending down, but maybe

we can explain it away with immigration,

and therefore maybe it's not that big of

a deal. But of course, the big question

then becomes,

will it last? Well, that's where the

economist comes out and puts together a

pretty interesting piece. The economist

argues that recessions have kind of

become a like recessions are in

recession. And there's this idea that

because in history, we've had so many

more recessions, like from the 1300 to

the 1800s, we were in recession 50% of

the time, then we were in recession 25%

of the time. Now, we've literally not

been in a recession for over a

generation, over 15 years. They say as

many as onethird of American workers

have never experienced a recession. And

therefore, we might actually be

experiencing a recession recession right

now, which removes the sort of clearing

of like dead and zombie companies. Uh,

and then also increases pain, especially

when you've got people who are more

allocated than stocks than they've ever

been before. But it also raises up

zombie companies. So the economist, they

make this interesting point. There are

three big problems that come. First of

all, when you don't have recessions for

a while, people forget that stocks don't

only go up. This is why I keep

advocating like pay off debt. Things are

really noisy right now. We could teeter

in either direction. 30% of American

households net worth is exposed to the

stock market. We're at an all-time high.

With exposure to the stock market,

margin debts at an all-time high. Credit

card debts at an all-time high. uh the

government fighting recession is just

going to increase massively fiscal

deficits and on top of that the number

of zombie zombie companies that we've

have even under high interest rates is

skyrocketing. I mean we were just doing

a little analysis on the live stream.

We're like dude look at some of these

zombie companies. QuantumCape no revenue

net loss of $105 million. How do they

actually stay alive? Because they issue

stock. They meme up because they have

quantum in the name. They have no

revenue. And then they issue a quarter

of a billion dollars of stock because

they're a freaking meme. Let's put that

one away. Let's go look at another one.

Regatti Regetti Spaghetti Computing

gross profit $44,000 in the last 3

months. Kevin's gross profit is more

than $44,000 in the last 3 months. This

is insane. Regetti Computing. Okay,

there are no real revenues here. This is

insane for a company loses money $20.5

million in the last 3 months. $17

million in the last 3 months of of LA,

you know, the same 3 months last year.

Even more if you include the change in

fair value derivatives. Where do they

actually get their money from? Oh, they

get their money from issuing stock. What

do we have over here? Oh, look at that.

$346 million of stock. This is how you

get a misallocation of resources. you

get meme stocks and you don't end up

getting the flushing out of these zombie

companies that don't actually generate

money. So you have here's another one

Ion Q $39 million of revenue total

operating cost $28

million

of operating costs. $82 million of it

general and administrative expenses.

Yes, they spent 82 by 39. They literally

spend $2 on GNA for every dollar of

revenue that they earn. And so how do

they stay alive? Not by making money.

They stay alive by selling stock. That's

all they do is they sell the stock. Look

at this. $1.3 billion

of stock raised. It's insane. Here's

another one. What's this one? D-Wave

Quantum Computing. What do we have over

here? Well, let's just go see. Let the

revenue speak for itself. D-Wave quantum

computing, which is a kneeling quantum

computing, which isn't really quantum

computing. Total gross profit $2.6

million.

Loss from operations $27 million. Net

loss negative $139 million. Were they

raising money from these zombie

companies? Well, let's go find out. Cash

flow statement says

proceeds from the issuance of stock 37

million, 536 million, 139 million. And

it's almost threequarters of a billion

dollars out of thin air

because these zombie companies

take advantage of the stock market at

all-time highs.

And it's scary because they just issue

stock. It makes sense. But that's how

you misallocate resources. You know, the

stocks pump because like with Coree, you

get a stock pump here because Nvidia

bails it out at, you know, under $40. In

case you didn't know that, by the way,

it's another example of why you want to

be part of the Alpha Report. You join

once, you get lifetime access. But under

$40, Nvidia has a buy agreement for

Coreef. Nvidia is like literally a put

option for

uh Coref under $40. And so every time

they bounced under $40 or fell under $40

here, we're like, oh, you know, Nvidia

is going to come buy them pretty soon.

[laughter] And you know, then of course

they meme up to 187 because they can't

go down.

Uh and so of course we haven't hit new

all-time highs because that's the way

momentum works is you generally you hit

your all-time high uh once off of

momentum and you typically don't make it

back there because people, you know, as

the stock goes up, people try to take

profit or get out, get another chance to

get greedy and get out. So the economist

is not wrong to say we're in a recession

recession right now and people have

somewhat forgotten of the pain of what

could come. But I mean there are red

flags. I mean look for example at the uh

gold ratio. We were looking at that this

morning and we're like the copper to

gold ratio. We're like oh whoa. We

haven't seen this ever in the history of

the copper to gold ratio. Look at this.

The copper to gold ratio which is

usually where you know fear goes up. So

the price of gold goes up or gold is

getting bought through momentum. Who

knows? And then the price of copper goes

down because it's an industrial metal.

So the price of copper goes down because

people are producing less. And so what

happens? Well, first of all, you get

this ratio that usually coincides with

things like the COVID crash, the 2008

crash, the dot crash, the Vulkar era,

right? So usually downturns in the

economy are when this ratio goes down.

There are other times as well, like over

here in 2016, you had a little soft

patch over here. Um, nowhere near as low

as like what you get in a crash though

typically. Uh, typically I mean you can

see the 82 crash over here. Uh, what we

got the 82 dump over here, you got the

1980 dump over here. That's your double

vulkar rug pole, right? Uh, and then in

in like productive eras, you tend to see

an explosion of this. So you see, you

know, in 2005, you get this explosion

of uh of this ratio or in 1988 as the

economy is booming because the

industrial metal of copper is doing

really well. People aren't seeking

shelter in in gold. But who knows? Maybe

this ratio is just skewed right now. The

lowest level in the history of the

ratio. Like I couldn't go I mean I could

go back even further to like the 1800s.

It doesn't get this low. It's insane.

There's the lowest ratio ever which is

typically associated with recessionary

environment. It's like a canary in the

coal mine. Now I know we get tired of

talking about jobs. You know there's no

surprise we get talk about it like I

feel like on a daily basis but it's

reasonable to talk about jobs because

again we got ADP jobs data this morning

that isn't good. And then of course we

have this negative catalyst now coming

up. Uh, and the doomers just corrected

themselves because just the other day

they're like, "Oh, you know, we haven't

actually hit levels of spending uh like

we saw in the dot bubble for artificial

intelligence capex." And I thought it

was interesting because I'm like, I

don't know, man. Like, these companies

are, you know, pretty negative cash flow

right now. Now, I'm not calling for like

a pop to the AI bubble tomorrow. Timing

that is challenging. I don't want to

encourage people to like go into shorts

and get burned. Uh, I think shorting

this market is really hard. So, I think

you're better off just like if it's

going to be a red day, sit out, right?

If it's going to be a green day, like

that's when you go in. This is more of

my opinion. That's been our like the

trading strategy in the alpha report.

Obviously, you know, predicated on lines

that we look for short if you want,

obviously. But anyway, um what's

remarkable is when we actually look at

what the doomers just said, the doomers

just told us that S&P 500 firms relative

to sales have not hit their 2000 levels.

S&P 500 companies relative to GDP have

not hit 2,000 level multiples. But

compared to net income, we've already

exceeded the 2,000 multiples. So, it's

sort of like is this time different or

is it all the same? It's a little

doomemory, right? Uh so, I don't know.

But what I would say is we now have to

pay attention to this economic data

that's coming out before probably before

the Fed meeting. They'll probably try to

rush it out. Uh and I find that to be it

will be a big clearing event. Uh and so

this is I think we might actually have

the pendulum kind of flip, right? So the

way to think about it is the the

pendulum

pend pendulum uh flips on reopen, right?

Once data comes out uh we get uh

September, October, and November in

rapid succession for jobs. will

literally be getting a threemonth moving

average

of data. You know how they're always

like one month doesn't make a trend. Oh,

we need multiple months or whatever to

to get the data together or whatever

like it we need a trend. You will

literally get a new 3month moving

average which is insane to get all of

that at the same time. That is going to

be, you know, outside of liberation day.

Uh this could be the biggest catalyst of

the year and it could go either way. The

trend is bad,

but it could also clear the bad because

if you know we add back in government

jobs and the trend starts moving up

again. It's not what we're seeing with

Challenger. It's not what we're seeing

with ADP reports, but tactically you

could fall towards soft landing.

So, this is a crazy catalyst and I would

argue it's probably the riskiest time to

be in margin because if we get a bad

trend like if this let's put it this

way, okay, let's just analyze it. If the

threemonth moving average goes to - 255

to -50k, let's say there's no way you

can argue we're still at break even uh

labor, right? 0 to 20k, we can argue

break even. If we fall below that,

it's recessionary. Now, what does that

do? that gives us rate cuts, guarantees

a December cut. Uh but it won't be

enough and it won't be soon enough

either. So, it's going to be wild. You

you you could get some really nasty if

you have 3 months of of - 255 to 50. I

would also argue you'll probably get

uh your your your Treasury yields down

substantially. You know, that's the

other thing that'll happen, which is

wild. But if that happens,

uh, you know, expect the 10-year to

plummet. And then what happens when the

10-year plummets? Well, then mortgage

rates plummet.

And if on top of that, then they come

out with the 30 or the 50-year mortgage.

Dude, that should be great for real

estate. Great for real estate in low uh

supply markets like, you know, the West

Coast where they just don't build homes.

So, that would be fantastic. The 50-year

mortgage is already a tailwind for

companies like Houseack. I I honestly I

think that's why we are like we are

currently at 3x the average rate of

fundraising for House Hack.

So, in August,

not all of these are fund raise dollars,

but I would argue that it's probably

somewhere around I mean, I'll show it to

you. I'll just put it up on screen. I

would argue that it's

probably 95%

fundraising this number because we we

don't include rents uh in this bank

account because rents go into a

different bank account. But look at

this. This is crazy. I'll just put this

up on screen.

I don't think this is like proprietary

information or whatever. But if most of

this is fundraising,

it's worth looking at it. So look at

this.

We're at 1.1 million in August,

uh 881K in September, 1.4 in October.

That gives you sort of a three-month

baseline, right? Dude, we're already at

almost a million bucks for November.

That's crazy. And we're only what, 10

days into November.

Uh and mind you that I think includes

two weekends and today is a banking

holiday. Yeah. The 1st and 2nd was a

weekend and the eighth and 9th was a

weekend. So four out of the last 10 days

that banks have been open

have been weekend days and today banks

are closed. So it's crazy. Uh I mean

we're really grateful. Uh thank you dear

SEC and investors. Make sure to read the

offering circular. This is not a

solicitation. But I think there's some

desire to just diversify away from from

markets and maybe margin right now. Um I

don't I don't I mean I don't know. I

look at like a bis risk asset like

Bitcoin. You've got uh this sort of

bizarre situation now where Michael or

Michael Sailor goes and buys what did he

just buy? He just bought like 400

something Bitcoin and of course he you

know pumps up the price of Bitcoin

beforehand.

Where was it? right here. 487 Bitcoin

bought for $50 million. It's actually

surprising that they weren't able to buy

more than $50 million. That's kind of a

low fund raise, mind you. Right before

that, he tweets buy now, which is I

guess we'll call it outsider trading,

whatever. It's not market manipulation

at all, I'm sure. Anyway, then buys so

he can, you know, say, "See, I was

right. You should always listen to me

when I say buy." And then every day

after that, he's like, "First get the

Bitcoin." you know, it it sort of turns

into this like meme of like, buy

Bitcoin. But, uh, as a risk asset,

if Bitcoin is a little bit of a warning

sign, you could see that despite all of

this, it's been, you know, at least in

the last few weeks here, has been

struggling a little bit. This is since

October. Go to the day chart. You know,

obviously it's done very well since

liberation day as many things have had

have. But this right here is

interesting. So, you got a little bit of

an extended downtrend right here. And we

really need to hold this line right

here. I made it an orange line cuz I

actually think it's a pretty legendary

line. World of Warcraft reference 102

164. That's what we really got a hold

here. Well, so far we've recovered, but

I wonder how much of this was supported

by Sailor buying.

So, you know, something possibly to be

careful of. Somebody here in the chat

just donated. Jackie just donated $5 to

say, "So, are you shorting Nvidia or

Palanteer or not, Kevin?" Well, I mean,

I don't know if you just listened to

what I said like 5 minutes ago where I

said this is a very challenging

environment to short. It's desirable to

because the numbers are crazy, right?

But the thing is, you know, if you get

this data catalyst and it's good, the

market's going to rocket and you could

kind of keep the AI data spend going for

a while. So, I really I'm so midpoint

right now and and usually I take I pick

a side, but like if that data rolls over

on jobs, yeah, man, it's all going to

tank fast because then people actually

start pricing in a recession, which

markets are not pricing in a recession

right now. I mean, how do we know

markets are not pricing in a recession?

Well, you could actually look at the

projected rate for, you know, the next

multiple years and the implied Fed funds

rate, which if you saw a recession, you

would expect it to go to zero, right?

The curve uh for the Fed funds rate

right now takes you down to

from 3.7 in December to 3.5 in March to

3.25 25 in June to three in October,

three in December of 26,

three in 27.

All of 27 it's at three. All of 28 it's

sitting at three. So the curve basically

goes we go down to 3% interest rates and

we stay there. That's it. That's what

the market is assuming right now. So the

market basically is not pricing in a

recession at all. Cuz if you price in a

recession, you would see a collapse of

that to zero. Like if we were pricing in

a recession next summer, you would see a

collapse of that to a zero Fed funds

rate. So from, you know, 3.7 or whatever

to zero and then you'd see the curve

come back up because people would start

pricing in the recovery after the

recession. So you'd see it go back to

say 2% or something. Uh none of that is

in the curve at all right now. The fact

that we are at a coin toss for December

tells you nobody's pricing in recession.

Hopefully not. Well, it's kind of crazy,

right? Uh but uh but yeah, no, no. The

the tough thing about shorting is it's

um if you're getting options, you're

paying theta. If you're on margin,

you're paying interest. And you just

you're sitting there like waiting and

hoping to be right. And there's no

difference between being wrong on your

timing than being wrong on the thesis.

Like at some point, you know, there'll

be a collapse in valuations, but

pinpointing that is hard. All I'm saying

is we got a huge potential catalyst that

could tell you that the time is now for

the the flip coming up in in the next

few weeks. So that's why I'm like just

like I urge caution, be careful cuz it's

such a huge freaking catalyst and every

time we get the data it's just it's

worse. So far it's just every piece of

data on jobs is worse and worse and

worse. You know the Goldman piece

doesn't help at all. So somebody's

asking here in the chat when do you

think we're going to get the data?

before the Fed meeting. So, before the

9th,

uh, you know, you'll know we're in

recession when we start rerating stocks.

Well, that's the thing. It's like,

you know, financial

conditions are weighed heavily right now

off of the price of stocks and stock

valuations. If stocks tank, then the

last thing that's basically keeping out

of a rec out of an official recession is

gone. Uh, and then you'll probably

accelerate firings as well. It's just a

disaster. But the good news is, knock on

wood, still make money with the alpha

report every day. Come join us. No

guarantees, but we do our best every

single day. Uh, and that uh that

coreweave call today uh just literally

could not have been more perfect. The

like in pre-market, we're going up. I'm

like, I'm leaning bearish. It's probably

going to 90 bucks. Is there a chance

it'll go to 105? Sure. But it's not the

way I lean. Somebody bluntly asked me, I

mean, like, what if we go up, Kevin? I

go, well, if sure, but that's not what I

think is going to happen. Uh, and uh,

and sure enough, we went straight to the

line. It double bounced it. Now, the

next test, by the way, will be what

happens at close. Are institutions going

to buy the dip or they get a dump? Well,

you'll have to take a look.

>> Why not advertise [music] these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People looked up

to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.