Crap | This is BAD.

Well, folks, we might be at the

beginning of a doom loop of a liquidity

crisis. And in this segment, we're going

to explain what that means and what that

could mean for the stock market. Now,

we've been talking about these potential

liquidity issues over the last few weeks

on the channel. In fact, if you've been

watching the warnings we've been talking

about, none of this should be a

surprise. In fact, starting about 2 and

1/2 weeks ago, we started flagging the

FMS, the Bank of America fund manager

survey. Now, these are their words, not

mine, but look at them yourself as a

reminder. My keep in mind, these

screenshots are all in the Meet Kevin

app, which you can download for free on

Apple or Android. You get the daily

wealth and the other. It's totally free.

You can see them there. But anyway, the

Bank of America fund manager survey

average cash level has declined from 3.9

to 3.8%. This was posted October

mid-occtober about October 16th. The

sell signal for the Bank of America

global fund manager survey was last

triggered in July when cash fell from

4.2 to 4 uh 3.9%.

If we sit at or below 3.7,

we move to a hard sell indicator. Now,

right now, in the last survey that came

out the last week of October, so fast

forward about 2 weeks, we dropped all

the way down to about 3.8%.

Now, this is old news. We kind of

already know this. I just want to catch

you up on this. Usually when we get to

these low levels of cash available,

people start becoming frankly unable to

buy the dip. A recent example or

actually a few recent examples of where

we had more cash available to buy the

dip and then we had Nike swoosh style

recoveries were liberation day. We

essentially Nike swoosh straight up from

there, right? S&P up like 30 plus% from

there. Cash was much more available.

Take a look at October 22. This is

roughly when I bought my Nvidia shares,

which you know are like massively up. Uh

but I bought the dip on chip stocks in

October of 22. In fact, I had a fund

that was basically had a huge allocation

to chips. And I'm like, guys, this is

like we're in a chips recession. This is

the perfect time to buy chips. Look at

where cash levels were in October of 22

around 6%.

way higher than where we sit today or

even the COVID low of April 20th. So, it

gives you more recent sort of memory

examples of when those cash levels are

higher, we can usually sustain a larger

rally up. Right now, we sit at a very

low level, which roughly aligns with the

end of 20121,

roughly align with other pain points

where historically stocks haven't

necessarily performed the best. It's

only one signal. It's not the only

signal. That's the Bank of America fund

manager survey. Another signal that we

paid attention to in the course member

alpha report this morning where we set

up our strategy for the day. In fact,

I'll I'll tell you what our course

member strategy was this morning. You

won't I'll just break it down for you.

You can take it for what it was. But one

of the things we looked at this morning

was actually a dangerous double top.

Now, this is not broadly on an index.

This double top that formed, this is

just an example of this is a really low

resolution crappy image of what a double

top looks like. And then it usually

continues with a fall off the cliff to

the right side. Right? This dangerous

double top has actually formed on a

company that I think is exceptionally

profitable. It has a relatively low PEG

ratio. we're at about a two. Uh so

frankly, it has about 20 to 30% upside

in the stock based on where its

valuation sits and its growth forecast

sits and where where uh forecast sit and

and and where its margins are. This is a

a company that first of all, I highly

respect the CEO of

the valuation's bare. And what company

just had a double top on the day chart?

Microsoft. That is another indication of

liquidity concerns going into of course

the Palanteer earnings we had yesterday.

There's a reason why in my video

yesterday I called Palunteer earnings

critical before the earnings came out

because it's a sign of will there be

enough liquidity to keep the pump going.

We've obviously extended on sort of this

like euphoric tip over here and clearly

the answer is no. There's not enough

liquidity to keep the pump going.

start adding these things together. This

bizarre double top on Microsoft I don't

think is idiosyncratic because when you

look at the company itself the numbers

are great. So you have a double top on

Microsoft you have a euphoric tip on the

Q's you know your triple Q's your NASDAQ

100 tech index and on Palunteer. So

you've got that euphoric kind of

rotation up uh the double top on

Microsoft with the euphoric rotation.

Then you have the fund manager survey

which is a red flag of liquidity.

Bitcoin,

Bitcoin's price only moves

because of liquidity. I will explain

more on Bitcoin and Micro Strategy in a

moment. And then number five catalyst is

actually what's happening with funding

rates

uh especially at the Federal Reserve.

Take a look at this. If you subtract the

sofa rate from sort of base

international rates, you could see the

the delta of how liquidity is funding up

or or drying up in the banking sector.

Now, this is actually a pretty big red

flag, but it's early broadly. It's not

enough of a liquidity issue yet.

But here's the self self-fulfilling

nature that could happen. The doomers

point this out really well. They say

liquidity concerns are the sort of thing

that can become self-fulfilling.

Even if an institution has ample

liquidity on its own balance sheet, say

let's say JP Morgan and Chase, stress

elsewhere will lead to the tendency to

hoard liquidity until there are better

opportunities.

So, the problem with this credit cycle

that we're in right now, which I didn't

think would come this early, we know the

cockroaches are a problem, but I thought

we might still be okay until at least

the government reopening. The problem

that we face, though, is the sheer

number of warnings we're getting on

credit risks are becoming concerning.

And that's what's changing the game

here. It's not just what you're seeing

at the repo markets, which yesterday we

had another surge in repo demand. Now,

in the grand scheme of things, is $29

billion or $14 billion plus 7. Are these

numbers? Well, I guess that's 49 versus,

you know, 21 billion over here. Are 49

to $21 billion of repo stress really

that big of a deal? In the grand scheme

of things, they're relatively small

numbers, right? But you have to go all

the way back to COVID to see the credit

stress for any of this to actually

matter. If we go back to or or or like

2008, you know, this is kind of when you

start seeing credit stress because you

have a big gap over here. This literally

jumps from 2018 to like 2019. So, we

don't actually see I mean, there should

be a giant white gap right there, but

they just deleted that. I I don't know

why they do that. But if you zoom in a

little bit just to make the dates make a

little bit more sense. There we go. You

could see we've had no liquidity issues

except for once very briefly right here

this summer and that's it. And lately

they've been ramping up again like in co

and that's why that delta chart is so

concerning because it suggests that

there could be a self-fulfilling start

to credit concerns. See, UBS is warning

of looming credit risks from credit

ratings, which I hate to say it, but

sounds very 2008esque.

He literally says there is now a growing

chorus of voices pointing to risks in

the multi-t trillion dollar credit

rating industry and the insurance

industry because basically rather than

using big credit rating agencies like

maybe standard and pores or Moody's or

whatever rather than using the big and

expensive companies you can actually now

just call up quote small rating agencies

to check the box of regulation.

and then just share those private

ratings with certain issuers and

investors to get debt or investments.

And you don't actually have the

reputation of a large credit agency

anymore. You have the reputations of a

bunch of small credit rating agencies

rating debt,

which just amplifies the potential risk

of the credit the private credit bubble.

Now remember, people are like, "Oh, but

private credit doesn't affect the

banking system." Wrong. The IMF tells us

that 90% of lending to private credit

comes from big banks like JP Morgan and

the other big boys. They just get done

through convoluted uh you know,

assortments of capital, which is scary.

So now what you have is not only

thisricolor and first branch collapse or

some of the other issues that you're

finding in private credit. We just saw

Renovo Homes go bankrupt taking out a

bunch of uh you know uh smaller

contractors in home renovations. But

you're also finding that this is going

so extreme that credit agencies were

actually giving first brands uh and and

their auditors were actually giving

first brands good reviews, you know,

good ratings, good audits or passing

audits. Mind you, First Brands didn't

use a PCAOB audit, which I think is very

important. This is your highest standard

of auditing. They use lower standards of

auditing. But look at this. The company

First Brands is now literally suing

their founder because the CEO funneled

up to $700 million into his own mansion

into his uh fleet of 17 exotic cars, a

celebrity personal trainer, $3 million

of luxury rent for a townhouse in New

York, $500,000 to a private chef. And

what's concerning to me is not that

that's the kind of scam that happened at

first brands. It's that the nonPCAOB

auditors apparently missed all of that.

And apparently the credit rating

agencies missed all of that. I mean, it

goes so bad that they literally talk

about certain invoices saying that, oh,

First Brands actually sold products

worth 11.2 2 million that you could

finance against when the reality was the

product was only worth $2.3 million.

That's a scam. That's fraud. It's no

surprise that there's fraud here and the

CEO, if this is true, should go to jail.

The question is, or the bigger concern

is, wait a minute, what if that means

there's a lot more uncovered fraud like

that everywhere else? And that's why

you're starting to see these funding

stresses create concerns because these

are signs that other banking

institutions are going, you know what,

we're just going to hold cash. We're

going to see how many cockroaches are

out there. And once you get that

tightening of credit, that's when the

true problems happen. Now, we're not

quite there yet. Excess liquidity, if we

look at excess liquidity charts, we're

flat on excess liquidity. So, it's not

like we're super low on excess

liquidity. Uh and on top of that, we're

not in this place where uh credit

spreads are signaling some form of

massive dry up in lending yet. You could

see that here. Credit spreads are still

relatively tight, which is bullish. You

could see financing costs uh are are

rising, but we're not like skyrocketing,

and we're still seeing a generation of

commercial and industrial loans. The

problem is this chart only goes through

the third quarter. So we don't yet know

what stresses are going to show up in

October. So these are things to pay

attention to. But we could see the seeds

of a credit crisis and a liquidity

crisis are real. So what did we talk

about in the alpha report this morning?

Well, I made uh a a a I had a very clear

we spent probably about 30 minutes

coming up with a strategy uh you know in

the actual stream. Uh, and obviously it

took me a lot longer to to prepare it

before my stream because I try to go

into the streams prepared. So when

people come to the alpha report, we're

like, "Okay, Kevin's already gonna start

by talking about here's the game plan

for today." And that's basically what we

do. So, you know, we start our course

member live stream, we go live, uh, and

I break down here's the game plan for

today. Here's what's going on. Here's

what you got to watch for. You know,

here are the traps and here's my

strategy. So, what I said in the alpha

report this morning, uh, which you can

get that at meetke.com. We've got like a

quiet code that you could use. It's NVDA

for Nvidia earnings coming up. It's

going to be a bigger deal next week and

the week after when we get towards

Nvidia earnings, which is really the end

of our catalyst for earnings, by the

way. They actually had pretty damn good

earnings. Like, Palanteer earnings were

good. It's just their valuation is

kooky. The only way you could keep the

valuation going is by having loose

liquidity. So anyway, the strategy we

had this morning was we need to see if

the Q's can make it to 6:30, otherwise

bearish.

So what happened? We made it to 627

and then we started bleeding. Volume

started declining. The cues gave up.

We're basically at the same places where

we were at the open. And our strategy

was I'm not interested in buying the dip

unless we can prove 6:30 because proving

6:30 means we have enough liquidity in

the market. If we lose 630 or we have a

have a selloff at either the end or

beginning of the day that that

exacerbates liquidity stress because now

people are like crap I got to pay off

margin I got to pay off debt and they

don't have money to buy the dip. Then

you could actually end up getting more

of a dip over time. So, that's just an

example of what we talk about uh in the

alpha report and how we set that up this

morning. And so far, that seems to be

exactly what's going on. Now, what does

this broadly mean? Well, near-term, we

shouldn't really be having a sell-off on

fear over jobs. I mean, in fairness, the

ADP report expectations are all over the

place for tomorrow. ADP expectations

literally imply that no one has a clue.

Like, I literally wrote that here.

Nobody has a clue. Now, standard

deviation on this is 27 thou. I'm sorry,

it's less than that. I think it's I

can't remember what the st actually

might be 27,000, but let me check. The

expectation is that we're going to get a

40,000 jobs read on ADP, but look at how

diffuse the economist estimates are for

ADP. You've got some people sitting at

60, 64, 68, which would be great, but

you've got some economists at - 20,000.

You know, any negative read would be

terrible. But there's no consistency

here on what people think. It shows that

people are even more confused

with what's going to happen. The

standard deviation, yeah, it's 26,000 uh

470. All right. So about 27,000 26,000

whatever 6 or 7 somewhere in there. Um

so the estimates are all over the place.

This data comes out at 5:15 in the

morning tomorrow. I don't think that

this is why the market is concerned

though. Now, if we get a really bad ADP

report, you know, if we come in under

zero tomorrow, it's going to be bad. Uh,

anything over zero is actually positive

tomorrow because we'll be within break

evens.

But if we get something uh that's

negative, then there's a real sign that

we've done an oopsy-doopsies with the

Fed and they are behind. See, I I

tweeted this yesterday. You can follow

me there at Realme Kevin if you want,

but anyway. Wow. first person at the Fed

who understands this and it's quote Fed

Daily says if you wait for the job

market report to show weakness you're

already behind correct you're already

behind what are we seeing on state

unemployment claims data state

unemployment claims data is showing us

us that at the end of September and at

the beginning of October we're starting

to see pickups in unemployment filings

in addition to that we had a lot of

layoffs in October now what happens when

you have a stable stabilized job

openings rate and layoffs rise. Well,

when you have a stable openings rate and

layoffs rise, the only place this curve

goes, these purple dots start going to

the right and then you get what's called

the normalization of the beverage curve,

which is bad because when the curve

starts going out to the right, the

unemployment rate skyrockets fast, like

really, really rapidly. you don't

actually need to see much of a decline

anymore in the job openings rate. You

just need to see layoffs and then the

skyrockets to the right really fast. So,

broadly uh this this liquidity issue

that we're facing is all related in my

opinion to private credit. And because

of these private credit issues, you're

seeing less support for Michael Sailor's

Bitcoin buying strategy. Literally, his

company is now named Strategy. Uh so if

you look at what Michael Sailor is

doing, uh you can see that Michael

Sailor just as based on this quote tweet

here acquired 45.6 million worth of

Bitcoin at 114,000. Okay, fine. So we're

down 14% on that, but whatever. They're

they're still up on their average cost,

right? Their average cost is $75,000.

And they don't really have bonds due for

a few years anyway. So, you would really

have to see a true collapse in the price

of Bitcoin to see Michael Sailor have

any problems. Now, I personally think,

and this is my opinion, this pisses off

a lot of people in crypto, but I hate to

say it. I personally think the only way

you get to the true value of Bitcoin is

when the treasury companies go bust. I

hate to say that. I hate to say it. I've

been saying it for years. And that's not

to say like I'm bearish or or making a

directional bet in the short term. It's

just to say that once that liquidity

support dries up in crypto, that's when

you actually get to more of the true

value of what Bitcoin's true value

actually is because you lose that order

book support. You have to think about

all these treasury companies as really

like peg legs propping up the value of

Bitcoin, not actual like demand. Because

what you're doing is you're you're

you're breaking the piggy bank, which is

a piggy bank that doesn't last forever,

right? You are taking the piggy bank of

the stock and you are breaking the piggy

bank of the stock to fund Bitcoin

purchases, but it doesn't last forever.

What happens when the piggy bank runs

out of shares to liquidate? Like in

other words, the shares go to a very low

value. Then you can't pay your debts

back. Then you go bankrupt. then you

don't support the purchases of Bitcoin.

Then you might actually have to start

selling Bitcoin just to pay back your

debts and then you have problems.

Obviously, that's like the doomer bear

scenario. But the point is that if you

actually look at the numbers at Micro

Strategy, you could see that

fundamentally the business cannot pay

all of these payments based on the money

they make. First of all, look at this.

the dividends on just the preferred

stock alone in the last three months.

Three months of dividends for their

preferred strategies and in their other

funds and you know strike and the other

you know Strive and all these other like

feeder funds that they've created their

gross profits on their software of $90

million their gross profits do not cover

their dividends on preferred stock

alone.

Now, if you actually look at net income,

oh, it's even worse. Now, I'm not going

to use the unrealized loss here on

digital assets, but if I look at their

net income, I could take 90.6

minus 29.9

for sales and marketing minus 22.6

minus 38.1.

It's literally zero. What did I do that

math wrong or is that literally zero? I

mean, mental check here. 40 60 30 60

plus 30 is 90. Yeah, dude. If you

literally take gross profit and subtract

just sales and marketing research and

development GNA, it's literally zero.

So, they make no money, which we could

have already known that by going to the

cash flow statement. You know, the cash

flow statement makes this obvious. Their

cash from operations is $45 million.

Their free cash flow is $72 million in 9

months. And the only reason they were

able to buy $19 billion of Bitcoin,

which they were able to purchase right

here, is because they got proceeds from

convertible notes at $2 billion,

proceeds from selling preferred stock

under the other entities that they have,

and proceeds from selling Micro Strategy

stock. So, in other words, if Micro

Strategy stock goes down, the peg leg of

Bitcoin liquidity is gone

and then it goes down. It's really

simple. Liquidity is nothing more than

an order book. You have to understand

order books to understand liquidity. I

don't know that I really want to explain

order books right now, so I probably

won't. But if you don't understand how

an order book works, maybe start there.

Okay, we actually talked about that this

morning in the course member live

stream, but that's more educational.

You're welcome to watch that. Um, it's

mekevin.com. But I think another and

this is I don't know if this is another

symptom of liquidity but I want to

mention it. So I think another symptom

of liquidity could be that we're seeing

a lot of people diversify into house

hack. Now I'm not trying to make that a

pitch and just to be clear like this is

not a solicitation. If you want to

invest in house hack you go to house

hack.com or reinvest.co. Read the

offering circular. Every investment has

risk. Okay.

But I believe that what we're seeing

is this skyrocketing of of investments

into house hack. Uh partly because

people look at it and go it's you know

it's based on the company's valuation is

based on an August of 2024 valuation. So

imagine the stock market was frozen in

August of 2024 when the company had way

more expenses and way fewer assets and

no AI strategy.

And that's what people are investing in

at now, including myself. Like I'm

buying shares before the end of the year

cuz I'm like, "This is great, right?

It's like this frozen in time

valuation." And so I think because

people know that and they know it's

backed by real estate, they look and go,

"Okay, well, we're going to diversify

away from stocks at all-time highs." And

so when we get these red days, people

are diversifying away. They're like, "I

need to diversify." And so on these red

days, I I feel like it's like a

liquidity signal. People are like,

"Okay, it's red. Take some money off the

table. Let's diversify a bit. And who

knows, maybe they're using some else to

pay down cash or or pay down debt or or

hold cash or whatever. I don't know.

But, you know, we raised $ 1.5 million

last month, which is insane. I think

that was like our our highest month this

year since we started. I think maybe

second highest. Uh and then, yeah, I

think I probably crossed half a million

today for November cuz we were over

$400,000 for the first three days.

That's Saturday, Sunday, Monday. We're

over 400 grand, which is wild. Which it,

you know, on one hand, you could argue,

wait, doesn't that imply more liquidity?

Maybe. But I actually think it's people

selling other assets and diversifying

away from things at all-time highs like

what we saw with the Palunteer numbers,

right? We went into Palunteer with a

euphoric spike and like an eight peg

and a lot of trader momentum. So, it's

no surprise that you're moving down on

Palunteer post even good earnings. But

this is a sign of liquidity. If people

had more cash, the stock should be going

up on those earnings, not down, which is

convenient for Michael Bur because

obviously Michael Bur, you know, he's

now shorting Nvidia and Palunteer, but

he disclosed his shorts as of I believe

September 30th, the end of the end of

Q3, which means he's actually still

upside down on his shorts if he had

those shorts as of September 30th,

assuming he bought them the very last

day of the quarter, because Nvidia and

Palanteer are still up from the end of

that. But some people see that as

potentially a sign that Michael Bur

thinks this is the next bubble. I don't

know what would give that away. Maybe

this, you know, post about the capital

cycle ends with a shakeout and a

consolidation.

Okay, basically how everything is

leveraged to the tits. I mean, I showed

Palunteer's assets yesterday and I don't

know what people were talking about with

leverage to the tits. All I saw was

leaked footage of Palunteer's balance

sheet. And all I have to say is bam,

those assets are hot.

Okay, that's it. That's all I got to say

about Palanteer. The assets were hot.

Beautiful balance sheet. I mean, nobody

knows the balance sheet better than I

do.

>> Kevin is much more interested than most

people, by the way, in the balance

sheet.

Michael Burray tells us that growth

rates for the prior 5 years at companies

like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft

have basically peaked. Microsoft

actually being the least of the issues

in terms of declines relative to 23, 4,

and 5. So he's arguing that people are

taking on all these billions of dollars

of debt via bonds or feeder fund bonds

or whatever to fund this capex cycle

while their actual cloud segment

year-over-year growth is collapsing

relative to the historic average. Now in

fairness, you know, back in 2018 to 22,

those were COVID days. So your average

could be pumped up by COVID numbers,

right? So maybe it's not that fair to

compare to those periods of time. But,

you know, this gives you sort of a

balanced view on Michael Bur here. Now,

of course, I can't reply or quote tweet

any of these damn Bur posts short of

taking a screenshot because the bastard

blocked me. The bastard blocked me

because I showed him an eggplant.

That's it. I I replied to him with an

eggplant emoji and I got blocked. So,

who's the real weenie baby here? Anyway,

all of it right now

expects like markets expect that

liquidity can keep booming. I mean, look

at this. Anthropic projects 70 billion

in revenue, 17 billion in cash flow in

28. Dude, people are pulling numbers out

of their ass to keep numbers going.

Now maybe it'll keep going

but you know to project out three years

or four years or five years for LLM

products that could become commoditized

just like Satya Nadellop warns when the

CEO of Microsoft is saying all your crap

might become commoditized but we're

going to make money off the commodity

anyway because we're going to be farmers

like the the farmers farming soybeans.

It's kind of a warning sign that maybe

some of those numbers are just

speculative pie in the sky numbers,

but people are in pain. How do we know

people are in pain? Well, because CZ

tells us that when Bitcoin's down 13.7%

from all-time highs yesterday, he tells

us that people are in pain. But then

again, Donald Trump doesn't know CZ. So

maybe maybe uh you know even though he

got pardoned by Donald Trump and even

though CZ is helping fund and promote

the World Liberty financial scam I mean

token uh which is basically bailed out

by the feeder fund called Alt 5 which is

also a scam. I mean it's a publicly

listed stock which happens to have a

support level at zero because I expect

it's going to go bankrupt and delist

because it's a scam. I mean because it's

it's you know it's just going to come

upon hard times. uh you know we we

really end up with a big question of do

people have I mean this is what it all

boils down to do people have money to

buy the dip or not and unfortunately if

banks tighten tighten lending because of

this private credit crap we haven't seen

it yet but we we're starting to see it

the signs are starting to come then

unfortunately even short-term

bullishness could be misplaced now you

know I'm not like a 10 out of 10 on the

bare bull scale. I'm pretty mid-range.

The reason I'm mid-range is because I

believe in the short term absent, you

know, some credit crisis. We should

still be bullish until the government at

least reopens because we just have a

lack of data. Uh and there really are

good earnings. But what's weird is we're

now coming off really good earnings and

big credit warning signs. Now, a lot of

people discounted this October 1st. uh

31st spike and they said, "Oh, but

Kevin, that was just because of the end

of the month." Fine. Then how do you

explain November 3rd's spike at roughly

half of that spike. Sure, it's not as

high, but it's still way higher than

what we've seen. So, take the end of the

month out. Yesterday was literally the

highest spike here, and this spike is

still growing. You can't really look at

this one yet. You have to wait until

tomorrow to see the full funding for

November 4th, which makes intuitive

sense. The day ain't over yet. So, how

do we know how much funding has been

used yet? So, broadly, there are real

issues.

Liquidity is the name of the game. In

order for stalks to keep going up, you

need buyers. In order for Bitcoin to

keep going up, you need buyers. But

margin is at all-time highs. What if

everybody's already margined

max level margin and we just can't do

any more margin? then there's no more

money.

I can't tell you how many of these

brokerage apps, uh, you know, Robin Hood

included, send notifications going,

"Hey, guess what just went down because

the Fed cut margin rates?

Want some margin?"

It's insane. You know, Robin Hood will

show you your buying power is like 4x

your cash. And these are like crazy

numbers. Like I think I my buying power

on Robin Hood. Just the Robin Hood app.

It says my buying power is like 30 or

$40 million or whatever it is. I'm like

this is Like that's exactly

how to go bankrupt is is maximizing your

buying power and then the market hits a

down cycle. It's insane. That's just

Robin Hood. You know, I see it on the

other apps too. I get the notifications

on the other apps that I use. I'm like,

this is crazy. So, um, it makes sense.

Now, here's the strategy that I would

watch for. Okay, so here's the game

plan. All right, the game plan is

simple. To understand the game, got to

make it to the end of the me videos. Uh,

but here's my take on the game plan. So,

first things first,

show up tomorrow at 5:15 a.m., okay?

Come to the live stream and then join

the Alpha Report

uh at meetke.com. You know, you could

use that code invid video. All right.

So, tomorrow we have the 80p stream.

My opinion is that if we get uh anything

under 20k is immediately

uh going to be seen as recessionary,

very bearish. Okay. Now,

uh sorry, anything under negative 20K.

My bad. I didn't mean to put the dollar

sign there. Anything under negative

20,000 is immediately going to be seen

as recessionary. Okay. Anything close to

zero will be seen as acceptable.

Okay. And uh anything

let's go. So this would be more like

plus or minus. Let's go plus minus. Uh

and then anything over 20k is bullish

GDP.

bullish uh bearer bull scale

um you know neutral on rates

but uh you know bullish economic growth

and soft landing or you know whatever we

want to call it right so uh the current

estimate

is 40k which suggests

uh we are going in bullish so the uh

surprise factor uh will be the uh left

tail, right? So, uh down the the

surprise factor is leaning to the

downside tomorrow because estimates are

already so enthusiastic, right? Uh

that's

not great, but who knows? I mean, we'll

see. We saw that the estimates are very

very diffuse, but that's the strat. Now,

the other thing that you need to watch

for is you need to watch for

institutional liquidity. Then watch

institutional liquidity. What's

institutional liquidity? Institutional

liquidity is uh market on open and

market on close trades. So like if you

see a giant tank at the open or close,

that's a sign of a lack of institutional

liquidity, it is a red flag.

If you see a benign close inflows into

the close, it means people have money.

This is why today I said in the Alpha

Report super clearly to everybody who's

part of it, thank you for being a part

of it. Um, by the way, people have been

asking in email, they're like, "Okay,

like like is there going to be a better

price Black Friday?" We guarantee that

if you buy the Alpha Report now

there, like you will have the best

price. So whatever whatever happens

Black Friday, that's that's worth

knowing like you you'll be guaranteed in

at the best price. Um, so anyway,

the the reason we wanted to watch 630

was because it's not uncommon to get

these sort of like faint-hearted buy the

dips right here. You really need to

confirm that into the close. So, if we

can rally into the close, great. Happy

with liquidity. It's a great positive

sign. If we can't rally into the close

and we actually bleed into the close, it

just amplifies the liquidity issue. The

same will be true tomorrow except

tomorrow's will be amplified by

the ADP report.

There you go. So, um

there we go. That gives you a nice

breakdown of exactly what's going on.

So, somebody here writes, "My broker is

prompting me to link my other accounts

to expand my margin even in Canada."

Wow, dude.

So if you link your other brokerages,

they're basically saying, "Hey, we'll go

lend against the securities in those

other brokerages as well, so you can

maximize your margin over here." Man,

that just sounds like a disaster because

what if they have to liquidate cross

brokerages?

Oh man. Dude, dude, it's the brokers and

the FINRA system itself that's margin so

badly. That doesn't make any sense.

The brokers and FINRA

don't take out debt for you. You take

out debt. That's not a logical argument.

Just because the system says, "Hey,

Kevin, come squeeze these titties

doesn't mean I'm going to do it."

Because it's going to bad be bad for my

marriage and my children. I mean, for if

you take out all that margin, it's bad

for your brokerage account, right? Like

just because the opportunity exists

doesn't mean you squeeze the squos.

Crazy

crazy thought, right?

Uh so

let's see what else you saying.

Some of you have Michael Bur comments.

Definitely liquidity. Cash and cash

equivalents are running like a dick in

bonds.

Ah yeah yeah and and and keep in mind

that uh it is a little bit of a

confusing signal that we are seeing so

many inflows with house hack because

like if liquidity is drying up you know

why are house hack inflows so high I I I

believe it's because like if people say

hey stocks at alltime highs I'm going to

sell $500,000 of Nvidia let's say at a

profit and I'm going to put 100k into

house I think that's what's happening

like I the reason I think we see more

liquidity is because people a want to

diversify, b they want that that

valuation from AUG 24 uh and c it's kind

of just part of like a broader cash

raise strategy. Like when stocks are

going straight up, you don't and there's

so much liquidity, you kind of just like

keep going with the boom of the ride of

stocks going to the moon. Uh so so I

think that it's it's a little bit of a

complicated like it's not as clear with

a private equity uh offering.

Uh, somebody says, "Bro, with a woman,

as a woman, please enough with the

tatas." Hey, hey,

I'm just not going to say anything. Um,

anyway, so where were we? I think we

were here.

>> Welcome. Nice [music] to have you. So,

you want to talk about love making,

right?

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.