Critical Message to Stock Market Investors.

what the he double hockey sticks is

happening in the market and how does it

compare to the warnings that i gave

yesterday on where to be careful in this

market let's talk about that in addition

to what is retail doing what are retail

buyers doing right now are they

capitulating is that why we're at the

zero percent fibonacci let's talk about

that we'll talk about crypto and the

biden administration we'll also talk

about a u-turn happening in ukraine

we'll reiterate and check in on how that

fed u-turn is playing out we'll look at

fears in general and really see what's

driving the market in addition to

checking out a brief overview of what

i'm doing now if you of course want

specifics on exactly what i'm doing as i

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let's talk first about what's happening

and then we especially got to talk about

what retail is doing so right now we're

once again hitting that zero percent

fibonacci line on qqq we're actually a

little bit above the zero percent fib

line on the spy right now but i want to

watch the qqq here because now this is

the third time we are revisiting the

zero percent fib line we revisited it

once well we first visited it on january

24th we broke below it on february 24th

and broke below it again uh on a march

8th but we're back to that zero percent

line why is this well it's because we're

starting to see some fear subside oil is

no longer sitting at 128 to 130 dollars

per barrel no we got the worst over with

biden has banned russian oil europe's

not going to we've done virtually the

worst we could now there is going to be

some additional fear that comes when

putin's decree comes out over the next

couple days where his cabinet has

already been ordered to tell us exactly

which raw materials he is going to ban

for export to let's say the united

states as an example that's going to

lead to some volatility and some

commodities prices so be careful i

wouldn't necessarily go short

commodities yet but who knows i might

take some profits on commodities but

we'll talk about commodities

in just a moment what we want to look at

though is just the overall data right

now oil down interest rates up the 10-2

has steepened lower odds now of that

recession right and the five-year break

even which is the market's expectation

of inflation has finally plummeted this

morning now it's still at a record high

but we had an inflection point down and

this is a sign that we went a little bit

too broad with fear and quite frankly if

we go just a week ago the 10-2 at 27

basis points in oil at 112 is still

really freaking scary but now that over

the last few days we hit even scarier

numbers these don't seem as bad anymore

so what are we seeing risk on and we're

seeing moves into the same kind of

crowded areas where we've been seeing

moves but we're also seeing some moves

away from crowded commodities and energy

trades and this is literally what i

warned yesterday when these commodities

were at peak as commodities were at peak

yesterday twice

during our live stream and once in a

video later in the day i've warned that

you want to be careful chasing the

crowded commodity sectors because as

fear u-turns they're going to fall

quickly and i highly recommended setting

a trailing stop loss for these sorts of

position now i'm not recommending

setting trailing stops for uncrowded

trades tesla is actually not terribly

much of a crowded trade right now so now

while i can't give you financial advice

because i don't know who you are or what

all the details are of your financial

portfolio and picture i wouldn't be

setting trailing stop losses on tech

when tech doesn't seem to be as crowded

as it used to be right now now that's

changing a little bit and will continue

to change as we get a reduction in fear

but let's be real just because we went

from slightly below the zero percent fib

line to the zero percent fib line does

not mean that fear is over yet but let's

take a look at and understand what

retail is doing so first retail is not

capitulating any more than what we're

seeing those drag outs below under that

zero percent fib line and the reason my

opinion we're seeing that that drag down

into some of these lower positions

especially really early in the morning

is because there are probably a lot of

retail investors who are getting

liquidated since this week folks on

monday

the average retail portfolio went

negative that is of all the people who

have retail trading accounts likely many

of you watching this included the

average person's portfolio went

negative that means now they're losing

their own hard-earned money and that is

usually when we see an increased

likelihood of capitulation because now

people are losing the money they're

actually working for rather than just

paper gains that they had and had not

realized yet losing paper gains is one

thing losing money you're working for

that's when it really hurts now five

days ago in these last five days despite

this average retail portfolio going

negative in the last five days retail

bought 7.1 billion dollars in u.s stocks

and that's because even though the

average investor is slightly negative

right now the average investor seems

hopeful that drone powell is no longer

going to u-turn us paul volckering us

and sending us into a recession now

the longer term trend could still be

that we see more pain ahead of us just

because we have these green day bumps

doesn't mean that green is here to stay

we are clearly on a massive down trend

and the question is can we finally break

this downtrend this again the qqq with

the fib lines removed and it looks a

whole lot less supported

this is when of course if we continue to

see these drawdowns when maybe true

capitulation could come but generally

true capitulation really requires a lot

of pain and big negative catalysts in

the market and right now retail is not

so worried about the catalyst that we

have in fact retail seems to be buying

the dip relatively strongly now what's

interesting is they're not buying the

dip where they used to buy the dip they

used to buy the dip almost only in

technology but right now only 25 percent

of the dip buying is going into

technology it used to be closer to 50

now that's because 17 is going into

energy 16 is going into consumer

discretionary this would be companies

like let's say etsy for example and

eight percent is going into financials

that energy trade following the

coattails of warren buffett is really

something that has picked up a lot of

attention unfortunately occidental

petroleum today for example is red now

i'm not going to judge anybody on a one

day movement that would be ridiculous

but we want to be careful these energy

trades like xle chevron they're getting

crowded in fact when i look at the

retail biggest names traded i'm shocked

that chevron is the third biggest retail

inflowing name

and retail just so you know does most of

its buying and market open and market

close

here's what retail's buying amd apple in

this order amd apple chevron neo bank of

america occidental petroleum sofi united

airlines microsoft uber ford tesla

facebook

delta airlines

rivian

app american airlines jpmorgan and coke

coca-cola in that order those are the

biggest names that retail are buying and

so why why is retail so sanguine why is

retail saying you know what this is our

opportunity to go shopping

well it seems to be because fear is

starting to subside

in many different regions or parts of

the market i should say first crypto

we've got the biden executive order this

morning that basically just demands the

government study the pros and cons of

crypto regulation in other words it was

a complete nothing burger and while

privacy coins are taking off a little

bit coins like z cash and we're seeing

monero go up you know nine and uh eleven

and nine percent respectively in just

the last 24 hours i think that's mostly

just speculation that people are going

to go off exchange or go into privacy

coins and while going into privacy coins

is speculation it is true that people

are going off exchange but this can

actually be a good thing for crypto

prices because as people go off exchange

it's a sign that they don't need to

trade or want to trade and that it's

usually a sign of more hoddling so it's

actually a good thing we're seeing a

substantial drop in the seven day

average of accounts on exchange so it's

a good thing for hodling good thing and

it's in my opinion why we're seeing

ethereum and bitcoin and cardano move up

in just the last 24 hours here because

again fear is subsiding we got our

report from the biden administration and

geopolitical fears and other fears are

starting to fall i mean consider this

zelinski right now is willing to

consider compromises to end the fighting

in ukraine this is not something that we

would have ever heard about two weeks

ago

sure there were negotiations and

discussions beforehand but at no point

other than the last like 48 hours has

zelinski come around and said you know

what i am willing to forgo ever joining

nato

and that has now evolved into you know

what

i'm willing to consider complete

neutrality in ukraine

putin's work

his atrocious and disastrous and

disgusting work but still his work

nonetheless is working it is pushing

zielinski to the point of

softening his stance

which kind of has to because keith keeps

getting shelled we literally just had in

marupo a children's hospital gets

shelled you've got hundreds of civilians

dying and this is unacceptable men women

and children are being separated from

each other families are being torn apart

i mean it's disgusting what's happening

but while zolensia doesn't want to ever

consider any betrayal to ukrainians

he is considering

a potential direct negotiation with

putin to end the conflict and this

includes potential

ukrainian neutrality

this is big this is a big shift towards

potentially the end of this disaster

which i hope and pray for every day

because this is terrible

now we've got some things that we've got

to talk about in terms of implications

for the federal reserve and inflation

this is very important but of course

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flip-flopped in a day not really i have

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the market's open all right folks let's

now talk about what we've got going on

with the federal reserve and cpi so

and of course fear so

let's put together a list of some of the

fear things because the fed and cpi

really comes in this

covingt was obviously a big fear for our

markets right

come on who's afraid of covett anymore

it's a big reduction of fear kovid is

falling covered restrictions are

plummeting

hopefully barring another variant cove

is over

knock on wood okay no more fouchy

ouchies

now war is a terrible thing

but zielinski is already weakening

this doesn't mean that he's not the hero

that he is

he should be doing this he is being

smart

to do this he knows that every day that

goes on without trying to at least offer

something to putin to make a deal is

more people's lives lost and putin just

isn't worth it

nato membership just isn't worth it

as a result we have easing of fear in

commodities like oil

like gold

inflation

uh will be another level of fear

but inflation

in my opinion will actually come in the

form and the wave of two major forms of

transitory now i know this sounds insane

because we've heard this whole

transitory bs for a whole year as the

federal reserve essentially just lied to

our face like

the transitory never was but the reality

is in the long term they're going to be

right the supply chains in the future i

don't know if that's in 6 months or 12

months likely in that time range six to

12 months we're going to see supply

chains level up if this is coupled with

any reduction in aggregate demand

because of global and geopolitical fear

or just because prices have gone up and

people stop start saying no kind of like

they are at macy's they're like no no i

can't i can't pay these higher prices

anymore macy's talked about that in

their earnings call coca-cola talked

about that in their earnings goal

well then we start seeing aggregate

demand go down we see inflation come

down and finally that supply chain style

of inflation becomes actually transitory

and then we have a second form of

actually transitory inflation and that's

this energy spike this these high prices

for oil are not going to last when the

ceo of occidental petroleum us down

petroleum tells you

that we are not going to pump more

because we are going to prepare for the

next down cycle in oil prices you know

the bubble of oil prices that we're in

right now is not going to last

when the ceos are saying we're not going

to bring more supply online because it's

going to take us too long and this

bubble's going to have pop by then okay

that's a reduction of fear these two

levels of inflation look we're going to

have a horrible cpi report tomorrow

it's i wouldn't be surprised if we get

an eight handle it's expected to come in

at 7.8 it wouldn't be surprising if we

get an eight

we're really gonna have to parse it out

we're gonna have to go through and

determine what are the actual what's the

meat of the matter inside the report uh

what's going on in the month over months

for housing and cars and some of the

other aspects so we're going to have to

do a lot of parsing and understanding of

the actual details to see hey is that

first set of transitory inflation

actually transitory or is it just

persistent

probably be persistent for a few more

months

and then the federal reserve has told us

that they're not going to wreck bullets

anytime soon maybe after the war is over

they'll pull us but for right now as

jerome powell said his famous words in

the last congressional hearing were

quote was a game changer

so all of these things together

covid

war commodities inflation the two forms

of transitory inflation and the fed make

me actually not very bearish here and so

personally

this these are the kinds of u-turns that

i was looking for in the market you know

some people are like oh i guess kevin's

thesis was wrong only morons say that

kind of stuff only morons who listen to

like every other video or listen to

watch read just titles and don't

actually understand context would say

that because

i'm pretty sure in fact i guarantee it

when i sold i said my goal was to find

dates of peak fear between

mid-january

and mid-march when the fed meeting is

and invest during those times so that i

would be reinvested before march 16th

and that's exactly what i'm doing

so

i think sometimes people need to hate

because they don't appreciate

all right folks check out the programs

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