Trump JUST *Lost* | Federal Reserve

A lot just happened at the Federal

Reserve, not only with Myan or Lisa

Cook, Donald Trump, but also what JP

Morgan is forecasting for rate cuts. We

need to talk about it. A&Z's also got a

forecast out on rate cuts. There's a lot

going on. Here's a quick video to catch

you up on everything. Okay, first things

first. The appeals cook just appeals

cook the appeals court just came in and

said Lisa Cook is not cooked. Donald

Trump, sorry, bro. We are denying the

appeal. Lisa Cook is going to be at the

September 16th to 17th Fed meeting. This

means that Lisa Cook, while she is still

fighting the Justice Department and

still fighting Donald Trump, she will be

at the Fed meeting on the 16th and the

17th. The appeals court has decided not

to pause uh Lisa Cook's involvement with

the Federal Reserve. Uh and they are

keeping a lower court order that says,

"No, no, no, no. We we are not kicking

Lisa Cook out. she's going to stay.

We're going to give everybody more time

to actually litigate this and provide

actual evidence. Now, we've broken down

before that you've got PE who's saying

things like, "Hey, she committed

mortgage frauds. She said she's on two

different primary residents." And she's

like, "Bro, one was a vacation home."

And he's like, "What? You had you told

them it was a vacation home and then you

said it was your primary? That's even

worse." And she's like, "Oh." So,

anyway, now they're reporting on that.

Okay. That's the Lisa Cook issue. She'll

be there. Now, this will make a really

interesting uh Fed meeting because

you're going to have Myron there as

well, who was just approved by the

Senate, just secured enough votes just

minutes ago. And what that means is

you're going to have Myron, who's

basically a Donald Trump shill, uh who

actually is still on the White House

payroll because of his role with the

White House Economic Council, which

basically means even though he's on

leave, he still works for the White

House, but now he's also a member of the

Fed board. And technically he could sit

on this committee or whatever you want

to call it for as long as Trump wants

him there because technically Trump

doesn't have to choose a replacement and

he could just sort of de facto leave him

on White House payroll and the Fed as a

voice for Donald Trump which is really

interesting because this person replaces

Cougler who supposedly is going to teach

at Georgetown this semester though still

has no classes scheduled.

who's also very partial to Donald Trump

and not getting destroyed like Columbia

got destroyed or Harvard got destroyed

Georgetown that is diggling disappoint.

Anyway, so this then puts us at a very

interesting Fed meeting. Now, of course,

A&Z is coming out saying, "Hey, we're

going to get 125 basis points of cuts

between now and March 31st." That's

because they see serious slowing in the

economy. I mean, the Empire

manufacturing report this morning was

crap. Okay, fine. But the market isn't

really pricing that in yet. The market

right now is pricing in a 5.3% chance of

a 50 basis point cut this week, which

basically means we're not getting 50.

We're going to get 25. On top of that,

we've got maybe 2.7 cuts priced in by

the end of the year. And we've got about

3.8 cuts priced in by the end of March,

which means if they're at, you know,

five or six rate cuts, they're way ahead

of the market. and they assume that

rates are going to fall substantially

more than uh markets are currently

pricing in which does set up some

potential opportunities. And these are

the sort of things we point out in the

meet Kevin membership. Oh, I wasn't

expecting that to get small. A I don't

like it when it gets small. That's lame.

See, I'm trying to This is my Oh, this

is my first time doing these uh these

little flags, so to speak. And uh I

thought they'd be really cool, but uh

they're not supposed to change the ratio

of my size. There we go. My size is

supposed to stay the same. And then when

I, you know, throw up meet Kevin, uh the

meet Kevin membership or whatever, like

I made these myself, okay, I was really

proud of them and I just restarted my

computer and I guess on the restart it

just sort of like destroyed it uh and

reset some of these aspect ratios. But

see, I even made one for Weeble because

so many of you asked like, "Ah, Kevin,

you know, where do you like do the lines

and stuff like, "Oh, Weeble, they're

doing a 2% deposit match right now." Or,

"Kevin, do you finally have an affiliate

link for the Metag Glasses?" And even

though it's not technically an official

one, yes, I mean, it is an official

affiliate link, but it's not like they

didn't contact me. They're like, "Hey,

we want to sponsor you." They're just

like default email link. But anyway, all

right. And I made little banners, too,

which I thought are kind of cool. Yeah.

See, that all works. See, that's cool.

Oh, there's a little extra green there

on the Capital One one. I'll have to fix

a couple of those. It's my first time

trying those. Okay, so I'm trying I'm

trying my best over here. I do it

myself. Ah, see. Yeah, there we go. Uh,

okay. Anyway, so what's really

interesting here is now we should talk

about the JP Morgan uh, you know,

analysis in terms of what they actually

think is going to happen for rate cuts.

So, Foli expects 25 basis points of cuts

with two to three potential denters. uh

and and and those people are not going

to be dissenting because they don't want

cuts. They're actually going to be

dissenting because they want more cuts.

They want 50 basis points of cuts, but

those are probably not actually going to

happen this meeting. And that's what's

going to make this meeting so

interesting or as some people like to

call it a very live meeting. Now, in the

short term, I think all of this is

bullish. Like them debating 50 or 25,

this is really just broadly bullish for

the market. It's one of the reasons in

the me Kevin membership this morning I

mentioned hey here we are at the cues at

like 587 588 I think we're going to

break 590 today in the me Kevin report

because I see everything right now is

shortterm bullish and sure enough we

broke up with a closing of 591 so day

calls would have paid off really well

again these are the kinds of things we

talk about in the meet Kevin Alpha

report but anyway I'm I still maintain

this modest bullishness right now and

the reason I too is because even though

we're getting some red flags like in my

Nvidia video which pissed a lot of

people off. A lot of people are like oh

my gosh why are you pooping on Nvidia

and I'm like bro you know I bought the

dip on Nvidia in September of 2022. I

send an alert to all my course members,

you know, like I do I send trade alerts

or whatever to the course members and

I'll send them trade alerts when I sell

my Nvidia shares as well, which I still

got a whole lot of Nvidia shares, you

know, over 10,000 of them. And uh, you

know, I'll send an alert when I sell

them. But but the point is, you know,

even though I made a negative video on

Nvidia, you've got to understand that if

Nvidia falls, it's macro. You know, if

if Nvidia has to go start buying up data

center usage from Coreweave and then 10

other companies and then all those

companies are like, man, Nvidia is not

going to be able to sustain this

forever. Let's stop buying chips. Then

the one leg that's holding up the damn

economy falls and then then you're in a

recession pooper duper, right? So like

this is crazy. Uh and and of course, you

know, then you if you say something bad

about the Nvidia group, all the Nvidia

shows come out and they're like, you

know, this is this is really bad

analysis. You know this is just this is

just one filing skin dude. Oh more

bullish on video than you right now at

least in the short term. But let's be

god dang don't use the lord's name.

Let's be dag on leal here. If Nvidia

goes there's a big pooper dupers for the

economy. But anyway in the short term

you know JP Morgan thinks we've got

about a 1% chance of the Fed hike.

That's not going to happen. I can't even

believe they're writing this in here. Uh

there's a 4% chance of the Fed staying

paused. That's not going to happen here.

Uh then uh it's basically a uh an 87.5%

chance of a 25 cut, 7.5% chance of a 50

cut. I don't see that at all. The 50

cut. So let's focus here. Okay. So if

they give us a hawkish 25, like, hey,

you know, we're just going to normalize

a little bit, but you know, inflation's

still a problem. Uh and and we're not

worried about jobs right now because the

break even is down. Okay. Well, then uh

you know and and you know the speak the

Fed speak talks about hiring inflecting

higher then you know maybe the S&P 500

shaves off 50 basis points. However, if

you get a dobbish Fed that's like hey

inflation is transitory and you know we

got to get the job market back up.

Bullish like hey great bullish catalyst.

Let's get up another 50 basis. Oh crap.

I forgot to change it. I still got to

change the damn coupon code. Ah okay. Uh

anyway, we're going to change that. Um

yeah, I guess that means you still have

another like probably I don't know 20

minutes or so to to get in if you want.

But anyway, me ke membership, we're

going to raise the price on it. Uh I got

to raise the price before the Fed

meeting. I got to get to this, but I

also got to get to these properties that

I committed the vendors to get to. So I

got I got to go. But anyway, uh so so

this is this is like this is a good

thing, right? This is broadly bullish.

The problem is what's going on with that

break even rate. Well, I posted on uh in

the Meet Kevin app. You can look at this

for free. I posted in the Meek Kevin app

for free uh over the weekend that The

Economist has a really good piece on

what's going on with the actual economy.

Their argument is that yes, the economy

is slowed, but even if the economy is

slowing 1.4% of the first half, that's

still pretty dang good. So, there are

few signs right now of things getting

much worse. And Americans, frankly, just

continue to spend. So, if Americans keep

spending, who cares? Like, this is a

good thing. Retail sales are strong. the

Atlanta Fed GDP is strong, though a lot

of this is propped up on the leg of, you

know, Nvidia and AI. And then they say

maybe the jobs numbers aren't that bad

because yes, the population is shrinking

or stalling. Uh, but I should say CBO,

not FBO. The CBO estimates net migration

in 2025 is just 400,000. That's down

from 2 million last year. So, of course,

when net migration is plummeting like

that, maybe the break even jobs rate is

significantly lower. So that's when I

started getting to myself uh getting to

thinking to myself, okay, so like how

how low is like where it should be?

What's your break even rate the

economist? Well, they answer that first.

They talk about how encounters with

customs are plummeting. 200k in 23 under

Biden in July, 100K under uh Biden in

July, 24, and then 8,000 under Trump in

July. Very, very low. Uh labor market

break even rate. They say the census

currently suggests a 90,000 job break

even rate. However, if you include these

migration adjustments, maybe we're just

at 50k. And if you assume migration is

actually closer to zero under Trump,

maybe the break even rate for influ for

job numbers is just 30,000. Now we sit

at 22,000 in the last report. The

3-month average is 29,000. So is it

possible we're right there? Yes. But

then what happens when we get the

revisions next year and then they end up

slicing off a bunch of those jobs,

right? That's going to be another risk

factor where we're like, "Oh my gosh."

You know, what happens if like we're

bullish about, oh yeah, we're at this

new break even level or what? Oh, I'm

getting a little bit of lag right now.

I'm going to have to fix that. Um, you

know, we're bullish or whatever. Uh, but

then all of a sudden they revise all

that away and then, oh, the Fed's too

late again, right? We got some work to

do. So, so we'll see. But, uh, you know,

this is the Fed meeting coming up. It's

going to be interesting. Brun's going to

be there. Cook's going to be there. And,

uh, 5.3% chance of a 50. Uh, you know

about the me Kevin membership. You've

heard that a million times. Uh, Trump

bullish on real estate. Did you see

that? Look at this. Uh, oh, not that

one. I see. I got to figure out all

these new buttons. Sorry. It's actually

just Oh, man. I think that's actually

what's causing the lag here.

No, it's not that one. Hold on. And if

the Trump house a uh Oh, I get it. I see

what I did wrong. I accidentally put

both of them over. So it is I just have

to remove the mem membership. There it

is. Look at that. Too late. Must cut

interest rates now and uh bigger than uh

he had in mind. Housing will soar. Yes,

this is good.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.