Retail Sales Shocker! [Full Summary]

all right 50 seconds to retail sales

data let's go through the expectations

again retail sales data is expected to

come in at negative point two percent on

the advanced month over month we are

looking for that plummet from last

month's hot retail sales data of point

four percent excluding Autos we're

expecting to go from point four percent

to point one percent excluding Auto and

gas we're expecting to go 0.6 to 0.2

percent and in the control group we're

expecting to go from 0.7 to 0.2 percent

we're also going to be getting import

prices import prices expecting to go

from point four percent to negative

point five percent month over month

excluding petroleum negative point one

percent year over year negative 5.6 all

pretty deflationary figures here

and okay retail sales oh crap comes in

hot retail sales Advance month over

month comes in all of them come in

almost hot Advanced month over month

comes in at point three well there you

go that reiterates a Fed potential move

uh X Auto does match at Point One X Auto

and gas comes in at point four uh two or

three of those well above the survey

import prices did come in lower though

import price is coming in at 0.6 versus

0.5

import prices excluding petroleum coming

in at negative 0.2 versus negative 0.1

import price is year over year coming in

at negative 5.9 versus the 5.6 expected

export prices coming in at negative 1.9

versus 0.1 expected and then export

prices year over year coming in at

negative 10.1 percent initial jobless

claims just came in at 262 000 that's

above the survey of 245 000 but it is

roughly in line with the 262 revision of

last month or sorry last week these are

weekly numbers continuing claims coming

in at 17.75 slightly above expectations

so jobless claims and uh continuing

claims slightly above expectations

retail sales coming in hot and import

export prices coming in soft so it

really reiterates that the rest of the

world is suffering a little bit more

than the United States with the United

States data coming in here hotter than

expected especially with this warmer

retail sales report again coming in at

positive 0.3 reverses the uh negative

0.2 that was expected for retail sales

so another bit of uh hawkish news there

we could take a brief uh I know CNBC is

really just going to be reiterating the

numbers that we have right here so let's

go into

the actual monthly retail sales report

and see if we can get the data Advanced

monthly retail sales yep we have them

here okay let me get the full PDF of

this seven pages long so we can go

through the actual retail sales report

together

now we're going to do that in just about

five seconds here uh while we wait for

that keep in mind we have a price

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let's now jump on over to what we have

for the retail sales report retail sales

report is uh

right here

and let's see what the report says this

is from the U.S Census Bureau

the report came in plus point three

percent hotter than uh the expectation

but a little softer than last month

total sales for March through May were

up 1.7 percent fine that's the quarter

okay we want to know the monthly data

though

let's get into some of the monthly data

and let's see where the hotness is

coming from so here's the chart on the

it's a little difficult to see exactly

where we want to be we want to be here

may adjusted 2023 so we want to be in

the column here we do want to be at the

percent change though so let's go to the

preliminary percent change

and let's go to the April chart let's

use this chart May from April so we're

looking at the main number from April

and this is going to give us a month

over month indication of where some of

that heat came from whoopsies that was

yesterday's report let's go here there

we go

motor vehicle and part dealers actually

came up 1.4 percent I believe this was

expected to be negative

you uh had furniture and home stores

coming in at point four percent yeah it

had to have been expected to be negative

because when you get the excluding motor

vehicle and parts you actually get a

smaller number than the headline number

so in other words even though we were

actually expecting car sales to be weak

it looks like they actually came in

stronger than expected in the retail

sales report maybe that's good for Tesla

you've got uh Electronics and Appliances

only at point two percent here that's

pretty low building materials you know

we saw this in the PPI report that

construction was really booming and this

would reiterate that this building

materials explosion here of 2.2 food and

Beverages and grocery stores at uh 0.3

or 0.2 percent health and personal

stores zero gasoline stations coming in

at negative uh negative 2.6 percent

clothing at zero Sporting Goods at point

three general merchandise 0.4

miscellaneous store and non-store

retailers these would be your online

well the bottom non-store retailers is

online miscellaneous store is a negative

one percent so really what was hot here

well what was hot was building materials

and autos and auto dealers we were

expecting the auto numbers to come in

soft according to what the Bloomberg

economic economists were expecting but

once again they were wrong the

economists were once again wrong Auto

Sales actually soared apparently uh that

is quite interesting uh we will I'm

trying to see if there's any commentary

on this so far so far there is not

uh no commentary just yet so we'll stay

tuned for that okay let's keep going

through this

okay motor vehicle parts and dealers

yeah look at this this is your

um

let's see current month percentage

change percent previous to current month

previous to current month yeah it's

absolutely Autos actually Furniture over

here as well uh we saw construction was

what's up there this is a

let's see here this is the percent

change

this is a percent change Advance this is

the advanced

this is median standard error for

percentage I'm trying to see how this

chart differs estimated measures of

sampling variability and revisions these

are the revisions Let's ignore this one

for a moment so a focus on this one

which gives us a more clear

understanding the revisions get a little

funny to understand so this gives us in

my opinion some clearer data how does

this though compare compared to March so

rather than just looking from April to

May how are we looking if we look at

March through May just to get a little

broader segment the hotness is actually

in the same area look at that autos

building materials are actually negative

over here so you have more variability

see look at these changes here

Electronics and appliances were hot

building materials were actually down so

it was really in this last month that

Autos reiterated heat uh same thing with

the year over year that you got on Autos

over here autos Auto's Autos people just

keep buying cars what is this and the

expectation was that this would come in

soft Whoopsie Daisy

Teslas are selling yeah used cars and

shelters are lagging absurdly and they

know it quite possibly