500% Tariffs are Coming | Major Trump China, India + Russia

Last week, we heard weapon shipments

would be paused to Ukraine. Well, a few

days ago, Donald Trump said, "hm, that's

weird. I haven't heard anything about

that. I'm going to send more weapons to

Ukraine because they've been hit very

hard." Donald Trump in an interview

said, "Hey, while we're at Questions

during his presser says, hey, Putin has

been very difficult to deal with. He

talks a lot. He acts nice, but you just

can't get anything done. Something to

know, by the way, about Putin is Putin

will regularly release these statements

about how Trump was right uh and how

Trump is so great compared to Biden and

Trump is also correct in saying that the

war would have never happened if Trump

were president. Putin is playing so far

Trump like a fiddle. It's like elevate

Trump's ego. Putin knows how to get to

Trump. But Trump is waking up. He's

realizing, all right, we're getting

played here. And so now the Trump

administration is not only considering

sending more weapons to Ukraine,

including new Patriot missile batteries

for air defense, but we're seeing a

potential sanctions bill that could have

implications for the market. And so

that's what we want to talk about. So,

in Congress now in the Senate, there's a

bill that could be voted on in the last

sort of probably two weeks of this

month, probably last week even of this

month. So, I mark your calendar for

that, you know, sort of now to August

1st period. Tomorrow is 7:11. So, we

about 19ish 19 20-ish days left uh in

the month. So, about three weeks left in

the month. in the last week, 10 days of

the month, we could end up seeing the

Senate vote for a sanctions bill against

Russia. Now, why could that have market

implications? Well, potentially because

of the tariffs it would impose on China

and India. Now, mind you, we've been

talking about a better trade deal with

China forever since day one of

liberation. And so far we've only come

up with a rough framework and these

guard rails that say Chinese tariffs are

55% you including their prior

terrorists. That's a very high level. We

don't actually have a a uh deal with the

Chinese on broader more permanent

measures. In fact, the Chinese have

given us a six-month countdown timer for

what period of times they would be

willing to supply us rare earth minerals

in. So, in other words, that clock is

ticking. At the same time as that clock

is ticking with China, the United States

is like, "We'll find them. We'll invest

15, you know, whatever." I think I can't

remember exactly what they invested, but

they just in, oh, they took 15%

ownership of MP materials. So, our

government, Donald Trump, is like MP's

about to rocket like a moon. We want or

rocket or moon like a rocket, I guess,

would be the way to say it. MP's going

to the moon. So, we're going to buy 15%

of the company and then we're going to

buy all of the rare earths that we want

from them at a minimum floor price. All

that really a topic for a different

video. But if you connect it to

negotiations that are going on broadly

and you connect all these dots, you

could see what Trump is doing. He's

trying to send a really loud signal to

China that, hey, we'll do our own

railroads. Now, between you and me, it's

going to take years years for MP

Material to actually build out these

facilities and get to where they can

hold a candle to what China is doing.

But you can see all of this has to do

with tariffs. This MP material deal

tariffs. This, you know, these sanctions

on Russia potentially threatening that

if the Chinese and the Indians or the

Iranians or I mean North Koreans to some

extent, basically the Axis buy oil from

Russia,

then Donald Trump will institute quote

500%

tariffs on their products. So basically

all trade if they buy Russian oil. Okay.

Now that obviously becomes very

challenging to get to the bottom of

because Russian oil is not usually

transported on ships with Russian flags.

They usually transship the uh the oil

through you know other country flags.

They try to deceive and you know confuse

trackers. But we can we can tell when

it's happening. And we know Russ, you

know, we know China is buying Russian

oil. And the oil markets are really what

are propping up Russia's ability to keep

funding this war in Ukraine. They really

have an oil and wartime economy. The war

is actually increasing gross domestic

product in Russia. Of course, you're

just lighting it all on fire in a war in

Ukraine. Uh and then of course, oil is

also funding the balance sheet of the

Russian government. So this is Donald

Trump's point of view that maybe this is

what we need to do. And so what you're

finding is Democrats are now coming out

and saying Donald Trump is finally

realizing that Putin has been playing

the president for months and we're

currently no closer to a peace deal than

he promised on day one of his

presidency. In fairness, they're right.

Donald Trump has tried his best to get a

deal going. In fact, I think this tweet

puts a good summary together. what

Donald Trump has done for Russia in

2025. Lifted sanctions on arms dealers,

Kremlin linked banks. You know, some of

this is a little like hyperbolic.

Disbanded US sanctions enforcement,

blocked Ukrainian aid approved by

Congress, oppo opposed oil price caps at

G7. You know, basically this idea of

Trump has been trying to remove

restrictions on China, but that's been

part of Trump's ability to negotiate or

his desire to negotiate. He's been

trying to attract Putin with honey and

it's just not working. Putin apparently

only knows piss and vinegar. And I think

that is where Donald Trump is now

recognizing, all right, we're probably

going to greenlight this bill that's in

Congress. And this bill that's in

Congress is uh essentially uh a bill

that would give Donald Trump a lot of

optionality

with Russia. So top Republican

congressional leaders said Wednesday

they are prepared to move forward with

new sanctions targeting Russia this

month after Donald Trump signaled he's

willing to pressure Moscow to end the

war in Ukraine. Putin is showing an

unwillingness to be reasonable and to

talk seriously about brokering peace and

I think we have to send them a message.

That's my view. Speaker Mike Johnson.

Now Mike Johnson basically does whatever

Trump wants. So does the Supreme Court.

Okay, sorry that's a topic for a

different video. But Mike Johnson, you

know, whatever whatever Trump ultimately

rallies behind is going to be what the

speaker is going to push for because

it's the easiest way to help members of

Congress reaffirm that their seats are

secure through a presidential

endorsement or funding from, you know,

MAGA associated Republicans. So, uh,

Thun is going to do well, sorry, uh, um,

um, Johnson is going to do what

President Trump wants. Now, on top of

this, you've got John Thun suggesting

that there has been substantial progress

in working with the White House on this

bill that would enhance President

Trump's leverage at the negotiation

table. Now, Lindsey Graham is drafting

this bill uh in part, and the bill

includes the ability for Donald Trump to

wave new sanctions against Russia if a

ceasefire deal is reached for 180 days

plus potentially a second

180 days. So in other words, it kind of

gives Trump this like, hey, Congress is

going to impose all these crazy

sanctions on Russia, which could

potentially affect Russia or affect uh

India and China if they buy oil from

Russia. However, Trump, if you negotiate

a ceasefire, we're able to include a

180day pause in here. So expect some

volatility potentially in markets

towards the end of the month, which

usually geopolitical issues are buy the

dip opportunity. But I think that all of

this is going to link back to tariffs

where this 180day potential waiver ends

up being a six-month pause on these 500%

tariffs in the future. But just be aware

of what's going on. Bottom line, Trump

is essentially losing his peaceful

negotiation with Putin. It's not

working. As a result, he's now thinking

about having an optional bill, which

basically gives Trump options. Uh, and

Trump says he is quote good with the

latest draft, which would allow Trump to

severely ramp up pressure on Putin. Now,

is Putin going to care about sanctions?

Who knows? But Putin is going to care

about losing potential oil revenue from

China and India. And that's why they're

threatening the 500% oil tariffs. That's

a really big deal because it's not 500%

on just oil. It's if you buy oil from

Russia, it's 500% on everything. So, in

other words, tariffs on China could 10x

unless they stop buying oil. They stop

buying oil. Putin goes, "Oh, maybe his

back gets against, you know, is pushed

against the wall." And this is where

people then raise the question of is

Putin going to lash out against Ukraine?

Could we see more pressure rather than

less? which is also why Trump is now

sending wanting to send more defensive

weapons, quote, mostly defensive

weapons, Donald Trump says, to Ukraine.

See how it's all getting set up?

Being nice to Putin wasn't working. Now

we're going to send more equipment to

Ukraine, especially defensive weaponry.

Then we're going to sanction Russia even

more. Then we're going to piss off the

Chinese and Indians by looping them in

on this.

and we're going to try to push or

pressure Putin to to basically end his

war, which could obviously spill over

into more attacks from Russia or more

tariff concerns. But Donald Trump's

already built in his famous taco, the

180day pause, potentially two of them.

So, uh, now under what conditions you'd

be able to pause TBD all the details,

but if you start kind of linking all

these pieces together, you can see how

all of this is part of Trump's policy.

And it gives you, I think, a nice

breakdown of what's going on and, you

know, how tariffs uh, could be quite

volatile over the next few months. All

right, what else? Oh, and if any of this

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Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.