GIGA DeepSeek SCAM + Fed, Trump, Tesla, Meta WARNING

quick heads up the alpha report has been

so popular we're going to be

incorporating it into the trumponomics

course for free at the end of February

so if you're not a trumponomics course

member you're going to want to become a

trumponomics course member go to

meetkevin.com bump the coupon code a

couple days to give you that chance to

get in before we move the alpha report

into course members only and that'll be

all existing course members in the

trumponomics course oh boy is deep seek

a scam could it be that deep seek AI

gets osed as a scam and what is that

going to mean potentially for a reversal

of all of the woses that artificial

intelligence stocks got hit with

specifically the chip making uh and

designing companies over the last couple

days we'll talk about that we'll also

talk about asml earnings do they tell us

anything about the future of artificial

intelligence capex a little bit with

Nvidia and expectations for the next 5

years on capex as well then we've got to

talk about the Federal Reserve what to

expect today what Donald Trump just did

and of course a little bit of an

earnings preview with what to look for

from Tesla meta and Microsoft on today's

meet Kevin report news that makes you

money so today we're actually going to

start with the joke of the day which

is a nonprofit brought us a $20 a month

app called artificial

intelligence and a hedge fund brought us

an open source version of the same

thing anyway I think that's actually

kind of ironic so I had to bring it up

and include that as our joke of the day

isn't it a little weird that a hedge

fund in China brought us a free

open-source platform for artificial

intelligence while this is leading some

like Bill Amman to say ah something sus

here how about if you're a hedge fund

you set up a bunch of shorts on Nvidia

and then you say you've trained a a

model equivalent to an open AI which has

spent hundreds of millions of dollars on

training for a fraction of the cost in

fact potentially as much as 20 to 40

times more efficient now while I respect

Bill amman's Jade I also know he was

complaining all day long on the day

Nvidia was down and I don't think that's

because he has Nvidia exposure I think

it's because he has a lot of Google

exposure and Google's been spending a

lot of money uh on on artificial

intelligence infrastructure I'm not

exactly sure what kind of short-term

bets he's got going on or what's going

on but usually associate any of his

emotion with his trading uh kind of like

what we saw during the co pandemic and

also the 5% treasury disaster this is

straight Market manipulation but I guess

it's legal for hedge funds to do it

including Phil acman uh but anyway uh

yeah look I mean is it possible that

deep seek is a scam of course in fact on

the first day that we were covering deep

seek uh which was well we covered it

Friday we covered it this weekend we

covered it Monday after the shock

covered it every single day we've been

saying all that's really going to take

for AI and artificial intelligence

stocks to really rebound is somebody

coming out going look this is a scam I

thought it was going to be Elon but

there were a lot of other people and

elon's been relatively quiet on it which

kind of leads me to think it's not a

scam since he's usually the first to say

it's a scam but anyway we talked about

that yesterday what's more important uh

is that doesn't matter if the $5 million

5.6 million to spend for training for

deep seek was a scam the answer here in

my opinion is no because

the inference side is going to be what

ends up in my opinion using more compute

and frankly on the inference side deep

seek is actually substantially more

efficient in the way it handles

artificial intelligence data and the

models by basically parsing segments of

the model and only using the part of the

model that's relevant to your query this

leads to running a significantly more

efficient model and it really doesn't

matter and as I've been saying since day

one it doesn't really matter if deep

seek ends up uh you know having lied to

us about what kind of chips they're

using I don't really care how they

trained it or what they spent they've

created a substantially more efficient

way of providing artificial intelligence

data now don't get me wrong I don't

actually think that stocks are all going

to plummet and continue to plummet

related to deep seek such as Nvidia or

the chipmakers asml had a fantastic

morning talk about those earnings in

just a moment uh and I've been saying

that for a few days mostly because it's

going to take significant time time for

CEOs to wake up to oh we could do this a

lot more efficiently either the way take

a look on screen here this is directly

from my Alpha report which will be

included in the trumponomics course for

free you want to get that before the

price goes up a lot look at this trades

today pay close attention to that

rectangle of Nvidia 12559 12250 very

important that rectangle is where Nvidia

usually gets stuck and you generally get

a big bounce or a big rejection off of

it what was my prediction look at it

here deep seek bounce expect a bounce

today why it will take weeks to months

for capex Investments fall to fall which

I expect they will consider how the

process will play out now you could read

this right here but the point is this is

just a sample of the meet Kevin Alpha

report that I sent it every day the

market is open I also pitched that Apple

was probably going to be a big

beneficiary before it started moving up

I pitched it when Apple was red on the

Deep seek morning and it turned

substantially green afterwards over the

last few days these are the kind of

insights I provide in the meetkevin

alpha report you can get it for free as

a sample if you want over at

meetkevin.com and you get a two-day

sample if you want to get in before we

raise the prices on the trumponomics

course at me kevin.com but for now feel

free to at least sign up for the alpha

report for free you get a text and an

email and you'll keep getting those if

you're in the trumponomics course uh

starting in March so at the end of

February we're moving it just to

trumponomics members anyway go get that

coupon over at meetkevin.com extended

for two days oh we don't actually need

as many orders okay let's pull back some

of those orders and then tsm's got to

wake up and then asml all of that that

entire process I expect to take 3 to six

months maybe even a year long this is

why yesterday I talked about sort of the

parasite having been planted that's

slowly growing and slowly eating around

eating up that future artificial

intelligence demand uh for chips from

the inside out and keep this in mind I I

I don't know that all of us might have a

scale of just how much this artificial

intelligence uh spend matters but

somebody left a comment yesterday and

they said Kavin you know Nvidia still

creates gpus for gamers like does that

not matter any more uh the answer to

that is not so much I mean yes it

matters somewhat but not so much it

matters maybe about 10% why well just

look at nvidia's expected spend over the

next 5 years that is spend on Nvidia

products over the next 5 years compared

to what Nvidia did in the last years uh

you know before the AI movement so

before the AI movement so really before

2023 Nvidia brought in just about $83

billion well in the 5 years ending 2029

Nvidia is expected to bring in$

1.06 trillion so a little more than 11x

because of data center spend so you can

see this is a stock that's heavily

propped up on data center spend anything

that makes data centers spend plummet

even 10% is actually going to absorb or

basically zero out everything you're

doing with gaming style chips all you

need is a 10% cut in data center spend

over the next 5 years boom all the

gaming stuff is out the window it's

almost like you don't even have that

side of the business that's only a 10%

decline that's wild now the financial

times is claiming that open aai did find

evidence that Chinese artificial

intelligence startup deep seek did end

end up using uh the US company's

proprietary models to train its own open

source competitor that's a quote from

the financial times Microsoft is

investigating this as well some argue

that either the open aai uh API was used

to just milk all the data open AI has or

that a process of distillation was used

where basically a smaller cheaper model

uses the outputs of the larger more

expensive model to help it reinforce

learn or to teach itself how it should

be

responding maybe could it be fine again

I stick to my guns that ultimately when

you have a more efficient inference

Model A lot of people are going to adopt

that a lot of companies are going to

adopt that and frankly it's a good thing

it's a good thing for everyone less

spending is a good thing ultimately

because it means we could spend more

money on things that are actually going

to be Innovative rather than throwing

good money after things that just aren't

necessary anymore like so many data

centers if we need let me let me

simplify that let's say our society for

the best like the best rewards for

society in America or even the world are

100 data centers and right now we're on

the trajectory towards building a

thousand data centers we really have an

excess supply of 900 data centers and

I'm making those numbers up right do

those extra 900 really benefit Society

no so get rid of them right that's

wasted money that could be used towards

other Innovative things like urine

cancer and I don't know that today's

llms will actually be able to do that I

still think we're in the chatbot agent

bot phase and it's it's just not that

great but we'll see asml bookings did

surge though in part well actually

heavily in part because of artificial

intelligence uh their margins are 51.7%

on gross margin for their artificial

intelligence chip making machines

basically they're like the machine that

makes the machine that was over the

49.6% expected really really good net

incomes up 30% they sold 132 lithography

units versus 121 expected just

remember oh those are Q4 numbers right

so n none of this is really expected to

even be post deep seek yet they do argue

that deep seek is good because it means

lower costs will bring lower

applications so worth noting another

company here saying oh this looks good

Andre and Horwitz says Hey the Steep

seek thing is the Sputnik moment you've

got um a Microsoft s Nadel you've got

some Sam Alman a lot of people Nvidia

applauding the efficiencies found in

deep seek so even though you've got this

sort of like thing going on the

background where you've got the crypto

are David Sachs of the White House now

uh saying oh yeah um we are uh seeing uh

you know there's substantial evidence

that deep seek probably just stole our

data doesn't matter the product itself

is still more efficient we can learn

from it and use it so we'll see what

happens but that's the latest on deep

seek now today

we do have a Federal Reserve meeting so

keep this in mind Nick T sees that

December core PC Rose just .8% or 2.2%

annualized 12mth rate at 2.8% 6 month

and 3 month at just 2.3 now that's good

but here's what we need in my opinion

going forward and I think this is

actually pretty

important what we need from Powell is a

progress on disinflation we just want to

hear him talk about that hey things are

looking good we want comments that

tariffs so far have been slower moving

than expected which is really important

because as of December 18th the Federal

Reserve is starting to pre- pric in

Trump tariffs which is not great so we

want to see we want to see a relaxation

here of this tariff talk uh we do not

want a suggestion of a rate increase

that would be very bad we want a

reiteration that the economy is doing

great jobs are strong no rate cuts are

needed the layoffs from the federal res

you know federal government aren't going

to be really bad and everything is fine

now why do I say that well because

remember and and we'll talk about this

in a moment but Donald Trump offered

basically leave to a bunch of federal

workers I'll go into the details in just

a moment on this but think about the

combination that we're setting up here

there's less pricing power at companies

trade tariffs which both of these are

anti-growth right at least initially uh

Germany China and UK are are close to a

recession uh then you've got government

firings layoffs and quits all which have

actually been supportive of jobs over

the last few months especially with the

election and then you've got lower AI

cap in my opinion coming soon I kind of

think you're burning the candle of

what's left of a good economy at all

ends you're like you're literally

crushing all sides and shrinking the

economy I don't know how we're still

going to have a positive GDP if all this

stuff continues but oh well uh so Powell

though he's going to tell us about how

everything's fine and GDP is doing great

and and growth everything's doing you

know superb uh and so therefore while we

don't need rate hikes nothing is off the

table uh and uh we'll just take it

meeting by meeting for rate Cuts I

really think Jerome Powell doesn't have

to F this meeting up just take it easy

don't make any crazy scary announcements

and just move on now when it comes to a

Tesla earnings preview look usually

Tesla earnings predictions revolve

around the deliveries which we obviously

already have uh and then subsequently

vehicle grows margins that's usually

what Tesla matters about but that's not

really the case for Tesla right now

Tesla has not been moving off of car

sales though it may be slightly moving

off of hope that there could be a lower

cost vehicle you know announced I'm

going to hold my breath on a lower cost

vehicle I think a lower cost model

that's been sort of teased in the

earnings presentations really just

refers to lower cost cyber trucks and

model y like technically the refresh

model Y is considered a a new model

right anyway the EV tax credit isn't

gone yet and uh well while we have to

talk about the EV tax credit I I want to

quickly announce that make sure you get

into that trumponomics course because

the amazing Alpha report that we do

every day starting at the end of

February that is going to be included

for just course members so if you get

into trumponomics you will be guaranteed

locked into that Alpha report every

single morning uh where you get some uh

some setups for for trade ideas for the

day but then when you're in trumponomics

you also get the alerts for when I'm

trading uh with a trading challenge that

we've got starting February 1st so make

sure you're in uh as a result of this

announcement we are doing a slight

two-day extension here on the

trumponomics coupon code my birthday was

yesterday I forgot to mention that we're

making this change with uh with the

alpha report oopsies uh it's because I

was going to post another video

yesterday but instead Jack and I decided

to play Flight Simulator and go to

Cheesecake Factory together for birthday

dinner so I apologize about that but

anyway uh yes that that is been updated

so go to me kevin.com to check that out

uh and uh that will guarantee you access

to the alpha report uh for no ongoing

cost uh and you can also preview the

alpha report if you want uh just go to

meetkevin.com

well actually honestly yeah just go to

meetkevin.com at the bottom just sign up

for the alpha report that's the easiest

way to preview it uh if you sign up

after the Market opens today you'll get

your first Alpha report tomorrow anyway

okay uh full self-driving uh updates are

really going to be what matter here as

well as humanoid robotic updates uh this

is not just my opinion Bloomberg

intelligence agrees with this the stock

Tesla stock hasn't been moving because

the car sales grow you know the EV tax

credits are likely to affect and slow

down car sales but the stock hasn't

really moved down because of concerns

over that it's been moving up because of

excitement over self-driving cars and

this is actually why and no surprise but

Elon Musk and Tesla AI have been

tweeting about how um Teslas are now

driving themselves to the port to end up

getting shipped uh and uh they're doing

this on purpose on earnings day because

well Frank

this is what's driving the stock right

now so it's kind of smart but it also

shows progress so it's it's like shrewd

but it's also uh you know kind of

exciting I do think it's interesting

that they are 3x speeding this because I

feel like this should be normal

speed so they're going really really

slow but that's okay you know it's it's

self-driving it's awesome I'm a big fan

of it and I'm very excited about it uh

but anyway so uh look the other thing

that we're going to to see are probably

incredible margins on energy uh and

substantial energy deployment growth

we've already seen the deployment growth

and it keeps growing uh it's going to

keep growing to 25 to 50% of Tesla's

future earnings until we get Cyber cabs

and Robo taxis and well same thing and

then humanoid robotics uh but right now

it represents about 20% of Tesla's

operating income today it's already

producing over $300 million a quarter

you know batteries batteries batteries

batteries Mega packs and home batteries

they're great and Tesla has pricing

power for batteries like do people

really want a solar system that's Tesla

or a solar panel that's puzzled together

with Q cells from Germany and N phase

chips I mean as much as I love n phase I

have to say Tesla has more pricing power

than n phase when it comes to what a 25

to 55y old dudes want that doesn't mean

end phase is bad I actually think it's a

fantastic investment at a very very low

cost but uh and and over time as rates

come down it'll be a lot more desirable

but that's really a topic for a

different video uh but I do think we're

going to get some updates on energy

we'll get more FSD progress I really

think there's a 90% chance that Elon

Musk really yaps up FSD progress and how

great things are going I also expect

optimism about Optimus how it's already

doing amazing things and uh that there

are mass production goals later this

year maybe even he'll say Hey you know

we're going to be spending a lot of cash

on capex uh for robots so maybe we'll

have to raise money or whatever I don't

he could do a warning like that maybe

maybe not but I would say some kind of

suggestion that there'll be increased

capex for Optimus is like 70% likely but

that'll actually be cheered because

people want more Optimus development I I

think there's only a 30% chance we get

some kind of excitement over an actual

new model if there is a new model it

could do very well for the stock just

because it's not really fully priced in

and it could be true that other EV

manufacturers are just going to go away

because of the removal of the EV tax

credit which would mean that elon's

right about the EV tax credit ironically

getting removed and helping Tesla

because you've got companies like

stellantis that are like yeah we're

going to scale back our EV plans and

make more new industrial um uh internal

combustion engine Vehicles ice vehicles

I was like okay wow you yall really

going backwards okay anyway Tesla

earnings expectations

75.4 cents of adjusted EPS 27.2 billion

of expected Revenue net income 2.66

billion expected looking at 8.49 %

expected volatility in average selling

price of about

4,962 want margins to be at least

18.5% and we'll probably get some

updates on Cyber Truck Sales slowing

down a little bit but I think Elon will

sort of wash that and clean that by

arguing oh uh uh we use those in the

Palisades fire so yeah yeah no no sales

haven't slowed down okay uh anyway uh

meta reports earnings today along with

Microsoft the most important things to

look for here aren't necessarily whether

they beat or Miss honestly everybody is

going to look for the bullish commentary

about how these companies are both going

to be able to have higher profit margins

with the efficiencies discovered by Deep

seek that they can Implement I almost

certainly expect that they're going to

say that and then I Would Be watchful

for what they say on capex I actually

think they'll probably say something

like we're looking into how we can

become more efficient but uh our capex

plans remain unchanged at the moment uh

so some kind of like brush off like that

it's only been two days it's way too

soon to really make any kind of planning

but remember these are super high margin

soft businesses especially Microsoft so

lower AI costs actually help them boost

their margins even more and and they

they both have massive staying power

right now big PP uh as far as some Trump

updates Donald Trump did offer

incentives to 2.3 million federal

workers the civilian side with the

exception of the USPS and and certain uh

critical segments I think it was

immigration National Security related

and USPS so post office uh but anyway uh

you can basically stay in your job until

September 30th 2025 work from home is

acceptable uh it's it's sort of a

backward door to firing people because

the federal government actually has a

lot of protections for federal

government workers who are not on

probation it's actually why the Trump

Administration has already asked

administrators to let people like let

the Trump Administration know a list of

workers that are on probation because

they're probably all going to get fired

but you have the rights to re statement

the right to file an appeal the right to

file a complaint uh you have to get 30

days notice you have to be given a

detailed description of your alleged

misconduct uh you have to have the right

to respond to the evidence against you

like it's actually really hard to fire a

federal worker and that's why they're

doing it this way to make it easier to

fire someone it's like hey please just

reply to the email saying I resign

that's literally what they're asking

people to do uh and then we'll just keep

paying you until September 30th but any

if you say that anytime between now and

then we can just fire you basically

they're turning you into an at will

employee but hey you could get 9 month

well 6 months worth of pay and get

another job at the same time like you

could literally keep getting paid and

get another job at the same time the

problem is the people who do that early

will benefit the most everybody who

Waits until the end when you know the

unemployment rate starts skyrocketing

because of stuff like this and

everybody's competing for jobs in the

open market well that's going to create

a little poopy doopy around uh the

latter part of the year so I think if

you're going to do this or you think

your job is at risk of the federal

government the sooner you do it the

probably the better because you'll

you'll have a better chance of getting a

job quickly before it becomes hard to

find another job that's that's my take

here so I I think that's somewhat

important uh we also have a federal

district court judge that froze Donald

Trump's Grant frees and Loan frees okay

fine that'll get reviewed between now

and February 3rd but uh that's it so

we're going to be covering the FED today

we'll cover earnings today so make sure

you're here at the channel subscribe to

to the channel we'll cover those later

look forward to seeing you so we'll keep

today a little bit shorter here in the

morning uh and we'll see you soon folks

thank you so much for being here I love

you all appreciate your support uh and

uh go check out that U uh course over at

me kevin.com thanks so much can not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin pafra there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your take