Ending my Channel.

hey everyone me kevin here in this video

i'm announcing a change along with some

exciting information but first i'd like

to clear up what's going on number one i

do not regret transitioning my portfolio

at all because i believe that there is

substantial pain still ahead of us i

don't know when that pain is going to

come i don't believe it's going to come

upon cpi data releases i believe it's

much more likely to come when our

central bank discusses policy action

the next time we'll be on march 16th

however the true pain might not even

come in march

it could come as late as q1 2023

which is one year from now and so we'll

see when the fears get stoked in the

market that i believe will come and i

believe that right now markets are

absolutely mispricing the risk we face

markets appear to believe that when

supply chains relax and when interest

rates go up to just measly one percent

despite the fact that household balance

sheets are relatively high and so are

corporate balance sheets they're all

relatively high which means a one

percent increase in rates is unlikely to

do much

it is entirely likely that inflation

will continue to persist especially

given the fact that i have read now

dozens of earnings reports in every

single company whose earnings reports i

read talk about more and more price

hikes not just in the past

but ahead of them including enface

fortunately i've got a straddle on end

phase that went through earnings here

and we're gonna make some attendees on

that end phase trade which is great

but what's not great is the reality that

in their earnings they talk about the

fact that they continue to expect

pricing power and expect to increase

just for example the product cost of

their batteries by seven percent in may

this means they're planning more and

more price hikes out into the future and

we're seeing this at company after

company

i believe this pain will continue and it

may take time for it to get fully

realized in cpi

now

in the meantime the bond market appears

to be pricing in perfection appears to

be pricing in the fact that the federal

reserve will have the ultimate ability

to reduce inflation that individuals

will just stop paying as much money for

products even though prices are going up

and that somehow when supply chains

resolve themselves companies will no

longer take advantage of their pricing

power to increase their margins

consumers will end up then paying lower

prices and will be in that deflationary

environment we've kind of all been

waiting for

but really shouldn't expect for likely

two to four maybe even five years

at the same time fear assets like gold

haven't even moved but an ounce

pun intended this means that in my

opinion in addition to looking at that

bond market and those break-even rates

we have substantial risk in this market

that is not priced into valuations a lot

of individuals believe that pain is

already priced in we i believe we're at

the beginning of pain

but when we have green days in the stock

market it's very easy to get

short-sighted and short-term investing

and focus on day-to-day fluctuations

rather than evolving market cycles and i

believe that we are in an evolving

market cycle

as warren buffett says just because mr

market is screaming a price at you does

not mean that you need to take it or

even mind it

warren buffett also tells us to be

fearful when others are greedy

and i am fearful

that others are really greedy right now

that the belief is don't worry

we don't need the fed's wind at our back

we'll invest without the fed and we'll

make money we'll go to the moon without

the fed

i think this is a greedy belief

i believe that we have excessive

spending by consumers an economy that's

actually very very strong because people

have more money than they've ever had

before and they're spending it like

crazy excessive spending on products

excessive credit card spending excessive

borrowing excessive margin excessive

household debt excessive real estate

prices and excessive stock valuations as

well as this excessive resolve by

uneducated investors who believe that

there is just no possibility that we can

be at the start of a macroeconomic

downturn and any even hint to the

possibility of a macroeconomic downturn

is just thud the dr fudd and mr fudd is

just here to give us bad news again

as a result

i personally believe that a change is in

order which i'll talk about in a moment

along with a positive announcement so

we'll have a sad announcement and a

positive announcement but first

i want you to know that you have to make

your own decision in my opinion there

are two decisions that you can make

number one is you follow the psychology

of money of buying the dip and focusing

on the quantity of your shares and not

on the price of your shares i believe

that this is appropriate if your

portfolio is is certainly less than one

to two times of your income

and instead focus on growing the shares

that you have in your portfolio the

number of shares you have not on the

value of your shares try not to time the

day-to-day market fluctuations

absolutely important

but instead

you do have another choice especially

for those with larger portfolios and

this is the second option

second option is potentially timing the

greater market cycle

timing the bottom will be nearly

impossible just like timing the exact

top will be nearly impossible

but i do believe that there is an

opportunity to time a transition from

the top half of the cycle to the bottom

half of the cycle

that is why i presently

have sold over 99 of my stock holdings

and i've also begun selling some of my

real estate

i presently believe that we have a 60 to

70

risk of a recession ahead of us in quite

frankly

the next six to 12 months

that means i believe it is more likely

that we will face recessionary risks

than not

and i will also be hedging my cash

position with alternative investments

and preparing for new opportunities

as true fear

enters the market

because only when

there is real fear in the market and not

anger

and this

misguided belief that markets can only

go up after a dip

then that is when i want to be prepared

to enter the market when we have truth

here and that's what i'm looking for

however look the choice is not easy for

everyone

and unfortunately sharing the day-to-day

fluctuations of the market with you

while it has been entertaining it has

not been healthy for me

and so i am no longer

going to be conducting market open and

market closing live streams at least for

the foreseeable future

course member live streams will persist

and starting tomorrow at 5 25 am

i will be live streaming any sort of

breaking events with only course members

i believe this is a reward to those of

you who support me and i will always

maintain my promise to you that i will

provide you more value

now i do have another exciting

announcement that i want to make in just

a moment

but first i want to mention the

gyrations and apologize because the

gyrations of markets over the past two

to three to four weeks have really

delayed my full release of the path to

wealth course and i apologize for that

i'm not perfect and i make mistakes

however i'm planning to now expand the

path to wealth course to a path to

wealth logic and cash flow course with

new lecture check sections coming out in

the coming weeks

now some additional and in my opinion

exciting information

first first

i'm massively preparing myself and my

portfolio for a very large transition

in fact

the money that i raise from either

selling stocks or hedge trades or from

real estate

we'll be going into a very new venture

that i'm excited to announce

if you want to be part of that

announcement and potentially invest with

me in this new venture

consider dropping your information at

medkevin.com

cashflow

because this new venture in my opinion

could be an opportunity for us to invest

together

especially if you're an accredited

investor tbd if not accredited will be

allowed things things are very much in

flux

but my goal is if we end up rotating

from the top of a market cycle to the

bottom

that we have the opportunity to invest

together

at the bottom of the market

that is what i am very excited for

because if you get time a market cycle

change

which is

something that requires a lot of

patience going into the market cycle

change and gives you time when you're at

the bottom of a market cycle change but

requires a lot of capital and cash to

really have the best opportunities

then i believe you could truly make

revolutionary changes to a portfolio no

guarantees of course

now look everybody makes mistakes

fortunately right now i'm still under

the impression

that i'm not making a mistake by sitting

out

the broader technology sector and

most u.s stocks right now we'll see i

might expose myself to emerging markets

or to alternative assets but in the

meantime i am being patient because

patience ends up being rewarded as hard

as it is

to be patient as hard as it is to and i

know that sounds ironic paper hand

stocks and diamond hand cash

i believe it's the right thing to do

along with of course cash hedges

anyway

go to metcalvan.com cashflow if you're

interested

that is a free

sign up that you can sign up for and you

can

learn more as soon as i have more

information about this opportunity to

potentially invest together so that way

if we do have a market cycle shift from

the top of the market to the bottom

will already be ready to go

that's what's very very exciting to me

second

i will no longer be doing market open

and market closing live streams

if there are events

such as a cpi data release unemployment

data release

federal reserve meetings

right now i plan to only stream those

with course members

if you are not a course member

do remember that you get lifetime access

and no matter what happens

i will always update my programs to make

sure you get the best value possible out

of them forever

that doesn't mean that everything is

perfect

but they come with one guarantee and

that is

if i have new information

whether it's good information or bad

information a change of information or

correction of information

i will provide that to you

and i will always focus on providing

more to you

check out those programs on building

your wealth via the link down below in

the description next to the link to that

cash flow sign up you can use that

coupon code that expires on valentine's

day and in the meantime i wish you the

best

and i'll be back