Tesla's Crash.

hey everyone meet kevin here let's talk

about the tesla model s crash this

weekend let's talk about what we know

what we don't know what the implications

are for the future of self-driving and

electric vehicles first things first if

you have not yet seen it this is the

tesla model s that crashed into a tree

in texas this weekend killing two

individuals apparently no one was in the

driver's seat but there was a male in

the passenger seat and a male in the

back seat both of them were between 60

or late 50s and late 60s were the ages

we do know that apparently these two

individuals were talking to their wives

about how great tesla autopilot was

before the accident so we we do

obviously not know yet if alcohol was

involved we don't know uh if autopilot

was even engaged but we do know that uh

these two individuals were at a house

left the house talking about how great

autopilot was and got in this vehicle

and uh ended up crashing into a tree so

why first of all did this car burn for

four hours well this has to do with a

phenomenon with batteries known as

thermal runaway this is very bad

when batteries degrade or or break in a

fire their chemicals and components can

mix leading to basically fueling the

fire fire now i'm overly simplifying

this example but basically it's almost

the way i think about it is the more the

battery breaks down the more fuel you

end up releasing and the hotter and

hotter this fire gets which the hotter

and the hotter the fire gets the more

components of the batteries break and

the more

new fuel you keep adding so it's

literally just adding adding adding over

and over again it's kind of like an

infinite monetization loop on youtube

except infinite fuel and lava and pain

and i'm just making up the lava part but

anyway it's really bad please think

about a normal car crash normal car

crash if a car catches fire fire

department gets unseen usually it's a

two minute event hose to the uh you know

to obviously the vehicle whatever is on

fire hose underneath the hood to kind of

inject water up into the engine

compartment

from underneath and generally you can

put out a car fire very very quickly

less less than two minutes

four

hours of of dowsing and water and foam

for an electric vehicle is not good not

good i mean first of all it keeps fire

departments on scene for way longer but

it's also i mean it makes the chances of

survival way lower because you know

there's a car fire and somebody can put

it out with a fire extinguisher that's

one thing if it keeps going that's a

problem right that's a big problem so

this has led tesla stock to sell off

obviously because this is a not only a

bad signal for electric vehicles and

batteries but it is also a bad signal

potentially for autopilot there are

plenty of concerns and rumors going on

and it's very important to separate fact

from fiction now before i talk about

potentially what happened in the crash

and what we know what we don't know what

i want to talk about is the fud that's

going around first of all elon musk

tweeted this weekend tesla with

autopilot engaged now approaching 10

times lower chance of an accident than

the average vehicle

okay with this elon musk tweeted a a

photo showing the statistics and cnbc

had a comment about this but apparently

they didn't read the statistics which

was very annoying because they're just

spreading the fud so what they're saying

here is in the first quarter with teslas

there was one accident i'm gonna write

this down to show it in a simple way one

accident

uh so we're gonna do with autopilot

so with ap

one accident for every 4.1 million

miles

the more million miles per accident the

better so you want really really big

millions of miles

for every one accident so with autopilot

one accident per four point one

nine million miles

with just advanced safety so let's do

with safety

there was one accident per 200 and uh

200 2.05 million miles driven

without the safety features and without

autopilot

tesla had an accident or a tesla an

accident one in every 978

000 miles

and the industry standard

is one accident for every 484

000 miles so take a look at this folks

when you break it down like this you

could see that

with autopilot the car is extremely safe

only one accident 4.19 million miles

with tesla's safety features it's really

safe one accident every two million

miles

without the safety features and without

autopilot which basically means just

tesla literally just tesla itself one

accident in 798 000 miles compared to

the

current average in the world of one

accident in every 148 000 miles now this

could also include cars from like the

earlier 2000s the 90s right so maybe

there's a little bit of an age bias

there given that tesla's are mostly

newer or most teslas are mostly newer

but look at the fun

that cnbc added cnbc

in a quote uh and i quoted this but

honestly the easiest thing to do is for

me literally just to pull up the quote

and we can listen to it but cnbc said

which we caught on my live stream this

morning

they they read elon's tweet quote

and uh then they kind of suggested that

oh well you know you probably are going

to have a safer car anyway

when you have safety features right and

they're kind of casting doubt on uh

tesla's safety record here a little bit

uh by saying ah maybe it's not that

great because you would have that anyway

let's let's listen to this it'll make

more sense listen to this full safety

report in his tweet he says tesla with

autopilot engaged now approaching 10

times lower chance of accident than an

average vehicle keep in mind any type of

driver assist system means you're going

to have lower accident rates than any

typical vehicle that is out on the road

right now where humans are involved

that's been why why are they yeah so

there i pause too and i'm i say in my

live stream like wait a minute why why

are you making that comparison because

that's not what the actual statistic was

the statistic was not that keep in mind

every vehicle with active safety is is

safer no no no the statistic is even a

tesla without active safety is safer a

tesla with active safety is even safer

and with autopilot is almost 10 times

safer except they didn't bring that up

leading to more thought around this

tesla crash but let's get into what

could have possibly actually happened in

the crash why would this happen and at

what point is it good or bad for tesla

let's talk about that now here's what we

do not know

we do not know whether or not autopilot

was on

we believe that nobody was in the

driver's seat which implies that maybe

autopilot was on but we do not know what

caused the crash now there are a lot of

theses and there are a lot of arguments

for example some people argue well you

can't turn autopilot on on a residential

street that doesn't have lane markings

first of all this is incorrect now i

know this is incorrect because i just

tested it

you you can turn autopilot on if the

vehicle it looks to me like my

estimation is it looks like the vehicle

is looking for curbs uh and if it could

find curbs you can turn autopilot on on

residential residential streets there

are also arguments that hey well if

nobody's in the driver's seat buckled up

then the car stops if it's on autopilot

this is true but you can easily bypass

this by buckling up the car seat of the

car you know put the buckle on and then

sit on top of the seat turn the car on

engage autopilot and then get off the

seat and maybe climb into the back to go

look how great the car is right that's

very possible now some people argue well

some teslas have weight sensors in the

seats this is true apparently of newer

models but not of older models

so

these are important things to

distinguish here so if it is true that

nobody was driving this car and it was

on autopilot which presumably it would

have been turned on autopilot otherwise

nobody would have left the driver's seat

that's my guess i mean

just trying to guess here and this is

speculation now so i want to make very

clear what's fact and what's fiction

okay speculation here

is

that somebody got in this vehicle turned

it on

turned on autopilot and then left the

seat while it was in autopilot this

makes sense because i i mean i can't

imagine somebody leaving the driver's

seat while it's not autopilot engaged so

my belief is we need to begin the

argument with the assumption that

autopilot was on

let's now say that the non-tesla driver

was in the passenger seat that is the

person who didn't own the tesla or was

not familiar with the technology was in

the passenger seat let's say that the

driver was the one who climbed into the

back after autopilot was on

let's now say

okay so

that's that's speculation we're guessing

that the driver went into the back which

it really doesn't matter so much if the

driver went to the back but it could

potentially matter

now the question becomes

were the two drivers completely idle

between the time they left the driver's

seat and when the car hit the tree that

is did autopilot drive this car into the

tree

if autopilot was fully engaged from

the the during the entire duration of

the accident that would be very very bad

it would send up a lot of red flags for

tesla considering getting rid of radar

for tesla not having lidar uh

it would send a lot of issues

up well it sends a lot of red flags up

for tesla and quite frankly whether or

not autopilot was on or off in part

doesn't even matter because it's like

dude

i mean you have

features in cars

that stop the car

when they're about to hit something

whether or not autopilot is engaged or

not and that's because the radar sensors

or the camera sensors or whatever now it

was dark

elon musk believes that cars should only

operate off vision sensors which makes

you wonder okay well elon what happens

when you get to a poorly lit road or

poorly

lit area of a road and you can't see

because maybe there are defects in the

road or there's overgrowth or whatever

what happens when the human eye can't

see and the cameras can't see anyway

right so that certainly begs questions

right there see

and that's sort of an offshoot to

consider here is whether or not

autopilot was on

it's a problem

that the car

hit a non-moving object now tesla in the

past have has issues with non-moving

objects as well and so this is an issue

either way autopilot or not it's an

issue that the car crashed into a

non-moving object

now the biggest issue is what if

autopilot was on okay well if autopilot

was on for the duration that would be

even more of an issue because now we

have even more doubt in the artificial

intelligence that is

in the tesla autopilot neural net

however uh and this is where where i

kind of diverge a little bit

i believe and this is my speculation i

want to be very clear about this i would

not be surprised

if potentially the car went into a turn

at a high rate of speed that was set by

the driver maybe the driver set this to

uh

and this is another aspect we have to

consider rates of speed because i'm just

going to tangent here really quickly

imagine if this tesla hits a tree at 30

miles an hour and bursts into flames

that's not good right we're expecting

this probably would have had to have

been a high rate of speed impact to

certainly to immobilize both of the

passengers

which is odd to say but yes certainly to

immobilize both of the passengers i

would expect that this would probably

have had to been at least

a 50 to

60 mile an hour crash

at least if not 70 to 80 miles an hour

right into a trade we don't know though

we don't have the answer to that so

anyway uh obviously if it comes out this

was a low speed crash bad for tesla if

it comes out it was a high speed crash

maybe more more understandable anyway

there's obviously anything that pins

human error is going to be more

desirable for tesla as a company than

than tesla getting played of course then

there's always the consideration of well

what if there was sudden acceleration

you know what if tesla thought oh cool

you set the cruise to 90

and and

you know at first it was going 30

because it saw 30 mile an hour speed

limit signs then you got in the back

then all of a sudden it thought the

speed limit zone ended and it just goes

up to cruise speed doesn't realize a

turn and drives right into a tree

obviously also problem you can see how

many potential

questions there are here

but this is a suspicion that i have this

is my speculation

autopilot's going well drivers in the

driver seat passengers in the passenger

seat front passenger seat everything's

going well this is my theory

driver engages autopilot it makes sense

that he would engage autopilot while in

the driver's seat

goes to the back of the vehicle you'll

go look how great this is this is

awesome i mean you're at the point where

you don't even have to pay attention

anymore blah blah

all of a sudden the car potentially

accelerates suddenly or

it goes into a turn too fast maybe it

didn't accelerate but it went into a

turn too fast which is a very common

issue with tesla today still

my tesla goes into turns way too fast

all the time

and i pay attention though when i'm

driving and i'm also in the driver's

seat when i'm driving

especially with turns turns you gotta be

careful so let's say it goes into a turn

too fast and it creates a moment of

panic and this is my speculation in the

passenger

and the passenger says

i'm getting nervous i'm getting nervous

passenger potentially reaches over to

the wheel my speculation

pulls the wheel just a little bit just

enough to disengage autopilot

what happens now now the car's going at

a high rate of speed with somebody not

in the past in the driver's seat and if

you try to control a wheel from the side

like this

it's very easy to over correct because

you're you don't have both hands on the

wheel and you don't have one hand in a

normal natural position you're in a very

weird position like any movement like

this could be a really big jerk

and potentially

the overtaking by the passengers my

guess of a steering wheel

could potentially have led the car

to thought okay human in control human

in full control

and that wheel gets over corrected way

too fast to where even if tesla safety

systems could have engaged by slowing

the car because it's like oh crap

there's all of a sudden a tree here

potentially the human error is what led

this vehicle to go right into a tree

because the passenger was freaked out

because well driver's not in a driver's

seat and it's like oh my gosh yank oops

crash into a tree

that that's my theory

on what happened in my opinion anything

that deviates from my theory of what

happens is worse for tesla if my theory

is correct it's best case scenario for

tesla it's

human error for leaving driver's seat

human error for actually taking over the

mechanics of the car

and disengaging autopilot and creating a

deadly event my take

anything else is bad

uh tesla not an autopilot crashing

crashing in a tree bad because come on

it's supposed to stop if there's an

object it's supposed to stop why did it

not see the object tesla on autopilot

and crashes even worse

tesla sudden acceleration bad too

my speculation though is for this kind

of scenario to have happen there would

have probably had to been some kind of

disengage of the autopilot previous to

the crash

however

because of this and the thermal runaway

we do have a tesla selloff today uh

tesla today is uh is down uh tesla is

down about four percent at the time of

this recording we're about seven

dollar seven sorry 709 dollars per share

we're not as low as we did go uh earlier

in the day earlier in the day we did hit

a low of 691.85

cents per share

we are again currently at 709 which is

not highs of the days

we did hit about 7 16 and we opened at

about 7.25

so there's definitely some pain in tesla

stock but tesla is recovering we are

seeing some of the other ev

manufacturers uh at least while they

started their day up see neo started at

stay up about three or four percent on

this news but has since uh rotated to

the downside now down one point six four

percent cciv was also positive at the

start of the day and is now down 2.2

percent so kind of shows you there's a

lot of drama going on right now in the

electric vehicle space and this is

coming on top of a very pained

electrical vehicle space already it's

already been very pained uh it's been a

very stressed market to say the least

but these are my thoughts on potentially

what happened with the tesla accident

we will not know

what's to blame

until this investigation is complete and

i'm very curious to know how this

investigation will come out i think uh

one of the most

the first and foremost priority is

figuring out what was anybody in the

driver's seat and if nobody was in the

driver's seat one of the things that

potentially could be determined early

is were there any brake marks were there

any signs that the vehicle actually

tried to slow

if there were signs that the vehicle

tried to slow that might be a an

indication of the tesla system actually

functioning

again depending on what kind of

human interaction we had there but i

think the investigation that's it's

going to take many months before we have

the ultimate results of that

and i'm just looking at a few different

pictures and uh from the scene photos

it's very difficult to see any kind of

uh even trail markings uh uh certainly

the fire doesn't help and and the car

could have spun around off a tree anyway

so uh thank you very much for watching

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