Rate Hikes are OVER as Retail Flips [NEW Data].

oh the historical data shows the FED

will not raise rates again after today's

50 BP hike

what do we think about that well stay

tuned for what we talk about in this

video and what we learn about what

retail is up to keep in mind that today

is the 14th that means the coupon code

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could this be the final rate hike from

the Federal Reserve in this cycle that

is could the very next thing the FED

does after today's 50 basis point hike b

a rate cut rather than a 25 basis Point

hike in this video I'm going to share my

opinion and some facts surrounding this

with historical data but we're going to

start by talking retail flows what is

retail doing I personally like looking

at retail flows because oftentimes you

get retail that has a very contrarian

attitude which I think is phenomenal I

think when prices go down buying the dip

is often useful unless of course you're

just on a year-long downtrend or which

we kind of have been on or on like a

2001 three-year downtrend it's not great

then buying the dip it's kind of painful

but retail tends to have that contrarian

attitude but interestingly as prices go

down retail does seem to buy less stock

overall and that's exactly what we're

seeing right now I'll tell you which

names are being bought more by retail

right now but at the very moment

according to a Vanda track report

released just minutes ago we are sitting

at a 20 lower than normal average of

daily purchases by retail we have an

average year-to-date amount of purchases

on the daily basis by retail investors

of 1.2 billion dollars remember retail

investors any individual investor that's

to be not necessarily contrasted with

people on Wall Street because if they

individually trade their retail as well

let's be contrasted with hedge funds

Pension funds institutions or entities

right anyway uh We've recently been

sitting at about a one billion dollar

average so about 20 percent less than

average and Retail only bought 681

million of stock yesterday now I say

only obviously I mean it's still a lot

it's still buying according to Vanda

track JPMorgan has been suggesting there

have been some days where we might have

actually been seeing retail outflows but

usually the bottom of the market is

associated with this huge retail

capitulation where retail just throws in

the towel their risk tolerance is low

and they're like we're done we're done

one of the things that is interesting

about this as well is that Vanda track

is reporting that retail tends to buy

Market open and close and then sell in

between kind of interesting we'll look

at some of the positions that retail is

buying as well so we can get a little

bit of an idea of what they're doing and

then we'll talk about this idea about is

this potentially the last fed hike that

I think is quite fascinating to think

about uh all right so let's see what

we've got here for retail buying the

biggest buy the dip for retail right now

is none other than Tesla

this chart here shows you a re uh the

price declines on the left side you can

see price declines uh and the lower they

are here the more the prices have

declined you can see Tesla's kind of

been declining separate from the rest of

the market a lot of this likely related

uh likely in my opinion unrelated to

potentially slowing demand in China or

potentially slowing demand in the United

States as people prefer to wait for the

tax credit in 2023 which would be a tax

credit they probably wouldn't actually

get until 2024 versus the 3750 that they

can get immediately if they bought in

December but either way uh yeah Tesla's

have had a little bit of a of a cycle of

uh you know some potential demand

concerns in coordination with a lot of

concerns about potential uh Elon Musk

selling uh and uh retail's buying it up

I hate to say it but I mean yesterday

during a live stream we conducted on

Twitter and Elon Musk no longer paying

rent at Twitter offices uh apparently

and allegedly not having done so for

about three weeks you actually see the

largest amount of selling or well more I

should say largest amount of volume at

Tesla stock that you have seen in over a

year that's pretty phenomenal you can

see the volume chart right here is

higher than at any point until we go

back to November and October of 2021 so

we're over a year we've hit the highest

volume leading some folks to say that

Elon did a big old dumpy doodle

yesterday uh but hey you know what

retail's looking at it as a buying

opportunity I don't blame that I

actually think there is a big buying

opportunity in Tesla yeah I actually

think one of the the neat things that

you could do right now is potentially

tax loss Harvest move over into an

actively managed ETF that has a large

position in Tesla and then that way in

the future if you rebalance boom well I

should say if the fund rebalances boom

you're potentially not exposed to

capital gains obviously always talk to

your CPA about that but ETFs do have

that sort of benefit where they can

rebalance and not pass along large

capital gains I know yeah hear sometimes

people in the comments are like oh my

gosh but there's like a point you know

whatever whatever fee and it's like Dude

any ETF charges way less fees than what

you'll pay the ah the ah and the S when

you rebalance and take a little bit of

gains

like

there you're paying fees of you know 15

to 35 or 50 depending on what state

you're in short term long term anyway

okay before we get to the potential last

rate for the FED I want to take a look

at uh this year as well as at retail

buys more of Tesla rivian and Lucid

combined performance is actually going

down this chart here suggests that even

though retail is buying more and the

average price is going down there must

be someone selling for the price to be

going down and that is very likely

institutional sellers institutions

dumping these stocks it doesn't surprise

me in my Tesla video I talk about how

Tesla is really an Untouchable for

institutions right now because how do

you defend owning Tesla not only when

it's on this downtrend but also when you

have the politics associated with it and

institutions are more exposed to

political considerations for their

investing purposes I believe I think

that actually creates a fundamental

opportunity for Tesla rivian and Lucid I

would be much more concerned about in

fact if you search on my channel meet

Kevin rivian Lucid bankruptcy you'll

learn a whole lot about these particular

companies and I think it's there these

are um those are videos that are worth

paying attention to uh and look it it it

is worth also saying though it doesn't

take a genius to draw some trend lines

for Tesla and uh tell you it looks bad

it's really interesting I actually Drew

this trend line uh probably a week ago I

think I drew this around here more like

the last week of November when we were

over here and I drew this trend line

just to see where we might end up going

and we are just sitting on top of it

unfortunately if you just continue to

extend this if we stay within this

channel uh we're in a big downtrend and

it's going to take quite a bit to get a

nice little breakout and then this is

just that's just simple ta right there I

mean that that's this is like

kindergarten level ta uh but anyway okay

so uh retail what else is retail buying

and then let's talk about could this be

the last potential fed High like so uh

what else is retail buying well

primarily it's Tesla followed by Apple

Amazon video AMD I like all of these

personally with the exception of Amazon

I think Amazon's going to be in a race

to the Fulfillment bottom and you've got

an AWS slowdown not a big fan of Netflix

not sure how that ad model is going to

go I'd rather invest in the advertising

company like a trade desk that does a

direct uh connect the TV advertising

though they handle that for Disney and

Hulu uh not for Netflix Microsoft

actually handles the advertising for

Netflix so in that case if I wanted

exposure to Netflix I'd rather be in

Microsoft personally I am a licensed

financial advisor but obviously this is

not Financial advice for you because I

don't know what your specific

circumstances are uh and and then of

course the rest here you can kind of

just look on screen and see what that

retail buying is looking like all right

so now let's go ahead and touch on this

idea that maybe this it's time for us to

be looking at the last Federal Reserve

rate hike ever and uh and a massive

potential U-turn so this is an

interesting one

the last uh on average I say if you go

back looking at historical data the last

Federal Reserve hike happens on average

22 weeks after Peak CPI so in other

words you hit Peak CPI on average the

last fed hike is 22 weeks later

well Peak CPI was 22 and a half weeks

ago

and we're gonna have a 50 basis point

hike today

so if today was the last fed hike for

this hiking cycle it would be in line

with historic dorms

and the first cut tends to happen on

average 16 weeks thereafter which would

be about April which I'm kind of

projecting the first cut to be around

May or June so that roughly aligns but I

have to say

I'm not the biggest believer that even

though statistically the last rate hike

is 22 weeks on average after Peak CPI

I'm not that optimistic that the fed's

going to stop here now it's possible and

this is where things get interesting see

between now and February 1st you get one

more CPI raid hike uh or or I should say

not a CPA rating what is that even you

get one more CPI report which could

potentially lead to rate hikes right if

that report comes in soft I think the

fed's gonna go for 25 basis point hike

and we're going to hear about that today

is it possible the FED with just one

more good CPI report could go to zero

historically the answer the answer here

is yes

realistically

I've let's just say I wouldn't bet on it

but it is interesting and it's something

I'm going to pay attention to for when

we look for Clues with what Jay Powell

is going to be talking to us about today

remember Jay Powell will be speaking at

uh 11 30 Pacific time we'll have the

summary of economic projections and the

rate hike decision at 11 A.M I will be

live for that I can't wait to see you

there oh boy buckle up folks it's gonna

be a fun day

and uh hey you know what some folks are

starting to say it could be time to move

from short everything to Long everything

maybe that

uh could align with uh you know Peak fed

hawkishness it'll be interesting let me

know what you think in the comments down

below thanks so much goodbye