Tesla China BLOWOUT [Details].

hey everyone me kevin here take a look

at the latest numbers from tesla

china folks uh tesla roddy reported this

this is absolutely incredible so look at

this

tesla's numbers from china last month

have been reported we are standing at

thirty five thousand oh yep uh i gotta

get rid of the pop

up here there we go we stand at thirty

five thousand four hundred

seventy eight units making up uh twenty

five thousand model threes and ten

thousand model y's

now why are those numbers so cool well

that's because they basically almost

doubled month to month they're up 93

month over month in in china in

february tesla sold 18 300 vehicles

these march numbers are insane to almost

double your production

in a month at the same time you have

supply shortages

model 3 being up 85 percent thanks

moneyball here

on twitter and the model y being up 100

oh okay i guess when you highlight you

click

being up 119 month over month these are

month over month figures now we don't

want to extrapolate out annually but

here's

here's why these numbers are so

important let's go ahead and grab a

spreadsheet really quick

and i'm going to show you uh what what

these numbers really mean

so 35 400 okay let's just

go with that so 35 400

total so total march 35

400 okay if we annualize this i'm not

extrapolating that growth rate i'm just

saying

no growth no month over month growth

extrapolate that

uh 35 400 times twelve that's four

hundred twenty four thousand

why is that a big deal to have almost

half of a million vehicles just in tesla

shanghai

well let me tell you why that's a big

deal we have tesla fremont

uh austin and berlin coming this one

austin's coming online this year

berlin's coming online this year

and fremont is online fremont is

going to get expanded to produce up to

one million vehicles

austin and berlin once they get started

they'll probably produce relatively

low numbers but in the future these will

be one million

plus facilities they could potentially

even do one and a half to two mills some

folks say

uh when they get fully built out over

time but this ramp

takes time uh shanghai

the reason this is so impressive for

shanghai is two-folded one

tesla is now at an annualized rate

producing almost all of the cars that

they produced in 2020 globally

just in china like you could give

literally zero car production

to the united states tesla fremont which

is online

which is a facility that probably right

now has the capacity of producing around

500k

which will go up to one mil but you

could literally delete

every other factory that tesla has right

now forget it pretend they have no other

factories

just tesla china and with a tiny little

bit of growth

in just tesla china they will literally

produce and deliver

these same half million vehicles that

they produced

in 2020 globally with fremont

and shanghai combined that's incredible

now consider the fact that this year we

also have fremont

that's easily going to spit out that

500k this is why i think elon musk is so

bullish on

yeah we're hitting a million vehicles

this year because again take the 500

from here

take a growth i mean you're going to

have more growth over here in china

so realistically i mean you could

potentially get to 550 to 600 000

vehicles in uh in march i'm sorry

in 2021 for a tesla china

that could easily bring us over that one

million mark for the year of 2021

which is really incredible and that's

assuming zero production essentially at

austin and berlin

as those facilities need to get built

out berlin is and germany is giving

tesla

some grief on getting the facility built

out the way the germans want it

it must be this way i'm allowed to do

that okay

deutsche and deutschland and if you

don't know what i said

it just basically means i'm allowed to

say that

okay so i mean really really good

numbers but let's go ahead and put these

numbers

to paper so let's go ahead and pull up

my latest tesla

spreadsheet i'm using the same

spreadsheet over and over but we we're

just playing with the same spreadsheet

and kind of modifying the numbers a

little bit

to project out to a time frame so for

example we're like what do we think

about

2025 numbers or what do we think about

you know whatever

2021 numbers let's let's do 20 21

numbers right now

so this was the last time we used this

was on the 2025 spreadsheet

which is a 25 spreadsheet we put a a

future value

a price target here of around 1757

and that is assuming that growth is just

beginning at tesla that's why we'd still

be attributing a hundred times earnings

to this

uh really in like 2030 i would expect

this multiple is going to go down to

like 50

40 30 right and really start trending

down

you could also use a lower pe i mean i

could use 20 but then we could be more

bullish on full self-driving and things

like that

that's the way arc does the numbers uh

but what i like to do

is or what i'm going to do right now is

we're going to do 2021 let's assume we

do 1 million vehicles

the cool thing is the cost per the

revenue per vehicle is still much higher

right now because we don't have those

more inexpensive cars so i'm going to go

with 48 000.

uh for revenue from energy i don't think

we're gonna hit five bill

not quite yet let's go ahead and put

that at just one percent right now

services leases this is fair we're not

gonna put insurance semis robo taxi full

self-driving revenue in here

uh the full self-driving revenue i'm

gonna include in the actual vehicle

i'm not gonna try to guess bitcoin

numbers in here so we're not going to do

that

we're going to put the margin a little

bit lower let's go with

um let's go with a 20

let's go with 20 no there we go 26

profit gross profit margin on the

vehicle so that puts us at 74

for the expense on sales uh lease

expenses services

or mostly all expenses here uh energy

okay these are just some of the margins

we have now with the exception of energy

energy is only operating at about 10

right now so let's modify that robo taxi

these are zeros anyway so don't matter

up up expenses perfect tax rate

well we could go to 15 for right now we

don't have biden's new plans in yet

so that really puts us for projected

earnings per share of uh somewhere

around three dollars and 78 cents for

tesla

which means right now we're really for

2021 earnings

we're paying somewhere around 174 times

earnings

for for a forward of 2021

full years earnings so obviously

if we extrapolated out and said hey by

the end of 2021

we think tesla is going to be trading

for uh you know a higher multiple like

let's let's look at this really quick

let's just go to

safari here really quick let's do tesla

stock this is just a quick

cheat here so p e ratio look at the p e

right now you know it's a thousand is

what it shows on google but that's

because it's looking backwards which is

nuts for a company like tesla let's just

even say at the end of 2021

the thing sells for 250 times times

future

that puts uh by the end of 2021 a

reasonable price for tesla somewhere

around 9.44

honestly i think that's low i wouldn't

be surprised by the end of the year

we're we're

decently over a thousand which if we go

with 300 times the end of 2021

we're over a thousand now i know this

sounds insane like people oh my gosh how

could you use 300 times

so we're so early in the growth curve

folks again like that

for me the pe ratio that you use that

you project out

goes down as the company goes up the s

curve right so they're inversely related

so

i think in 2030 we're gonna approach

that 40

50 maybe 30 times uh p e ratio

2025 we could still use that 80 to 100

right now we're so early honestly we're

just uh it's a shot in the dark almost

in terms of what number we're using but

it's going to be a big number so uh i

would not be surprised

that tesla does go up over a thousand uh

this year which if it does uh this

year uh this would be compounded over

one year

uh that that's i mean if we break a

thousand this year

that's a 71 return if we go to two if we

even just go to 200

let's say we go to 200 and tesla goes to

7 55

which i wouldn't be surprised if we go

to 750 like within the next month

but we'll see we go to 7 55 just this

year that's a 14.4

return uh now i know some folks are like

ah kevin i'm looking for my double

don't worry tesla's got the double belt

in it i'm

easily projecting out a double

potentially even a triple out to

2025 but you know things take time

so these are some of my projections

right now but really uh

seeing that 2021 these deliveries here i

think it's very reasonable for us to

bump these 20 21 deliveries here

uh to a million at this point we'll

probably exceed

a million at the rate we're going which

is going to be a very nice surprise

for wall street i don't think tesla or

wall street is really seeing that yet

and it's crazy you could get these

amazing numbers coming out like what we

just saw

coming out of china and uh tesla

is having a red day today uh and uh

that's just sort of the nature of uh the

silliness of wall street i like to

call it uh tesla right now

the time of this recording is at uh and

i should show this because i think in

the future this will be a memento

of uh look how cheap it was 673

it is actually down 1.46 and i'm

rolling a bunch of stock into tesla

today so stay tuned i'm

selling some stuff and buying some tesla

today so stay tuned

uh for some details on exactly what but

anyway thank you so very much uh for

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