WOW - What Jerome Powell Just Said [MARK THIS DOWN!!]

wow the Federal Reserve just tugged us

in a location we were not expecting to

get tugged in and I made a trade during

this press conference well actually

right before the press conference was it

profitable I went into this fed day with

no positions did have positions over the

last few days I send out all my alerts

to stocks and psych course members well

during the right after the release of

the information I ended up going short

end phase after it ran all the way up to

this 1133 line went short right about

here rode it uh until we started moving

back up obviously I wish I closed it at

Rock Bottom I would have been up 10K but

I closed it up about 6,500 bucks uh I

have that trade confirmation uh right

here so you could see the option that

was traded uh and you can kind of match

that up with the prices and you can see

it so anyway let's get into the summary

if you want all those alerts be a part

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streams you don't even have to watch the

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although there's good content in there

anyway now let's talk about the FED wow

okay first we got to look at the

statement because the different rugging

that we got here was a little bit of a

surprise uh I I certainly was surprised

Bank of America nailed this segment

right here Bank of America nailed the

steady 46 and the 49 now keep in mind

that is steady 46 on an uh on a median

basis on an average basis this number

went up if you jump on over to the Dot

Plot right here and you see what's

happening right here we calculated out

roughly what we think actually that

median projection or the average

projection went to the average

projection went to about

4.83 my prediction was we were going to

go to 4.8 we're right on the average

wrong on what's on the form the form

calls for median oh well uh so it is

interesting because you did see a move

up but even though you saw a move up it

wasn't enough to change the middle

number the median number so that was a

surprise that's surprise number one

surprise number two was right here we

suggested this could happen and it

happened it happened but I didn't think

it was going to happen this meeting

because I thought we were going to

revise this up and we weren't going to

touch this yet but eventually we would

well we touched it we went to uh 2.6

from 2.5 for the longer term rate what

does that mean what makes this very

simple folks in a recession you get

interest rate sensitive stocks that can

win why because rates go from high to

low very quickly interest rate sensitive

happy if you have a downward sloping

curve interest rate sensitive stocks are

mostly happy if you have a slower

downward trending curve interest rate

sensitive stocks are a little less happy

and obviously as interest rates are

going up interest rates s sensitive

stocks are sad and of course the higher

they go the more sad they are okay that

should be pretty obvious very very

simple see the difference in the lines

okay you get it so what else did we find

here this was a massive beat I did not

think we were going to come in this high

on GDP at all in fact if we go to my

projection I thought we were going to be

16 1 18 1 n thought they were going to

keep steady 2526 revised up 24 instead

they revised up everything everything

over 2%

really impressive in my opinion this is

good news both of these factors combined

in my opinion is actually really good

news for the market broadly chips big

Tech uh big corporations cash-rich

corporations this is a win for big

companies this is a loss for the

interest rate sensitive now we did

excuse me we did maintain the three Cuts

but jow told us roughly when he thinks

by implying it with some statements

first of

he said that quote we are prepared to

retain the current rate for longer and

then later in the presser he decided to

say hey we are in a position where we're

trying to compare to last year's

inflation data to make sure that we're

actually making progress on inflation

okay that's problematic why is that

problematic I'm going to map this out

for you okay this is really simple when

are the next fed meetings well mark your

calendar I'm about to tell you all right

ready May 1 June 12 July 3 1 that's the

beginning of Q3 right here this is Q2

okay market right now thinks we're going

to get Cuts here I think the Market's

wrong on that I'm going to show you why

I think they're going to happen right

before the election watch this sept

November December okay that's Q4 right

here so what do we have September

September 18th means we're actually

going to get the August data because the

August CPI data will be out already uh

November 7th that's right after the

election which maybe they'll even wait

until after the election although I

don't think so so here's my take if we

go three Cuts in order to lap the data I

think if we go three Cuts what we're

going to get is we're going to get 25 25

25 that adds up to three Cuts if we end

up going two cuts okay two cuts the

benefit of waiting until after the

election will mean the FED will not look

politicized

2525 what does this give the fed this

gives the Federal Reserve the ability to

lap the second half of the year with

last year 2023 and then they'll be able

to confirm the 12mon disinflationary

trend so even though we're still showing

that three rate cut trajectory I do do

think it's going to be later especially

since jpw told us today quote uh we are

prepared to retain the current rate for

longer it's worth noting that jpow was

also about 15 seconds late that's only

notable because he's like never late

it's kind of like when I do the stock

market open live stream every morning by

the way at 5:25 totally for free on the

meet Kevin live Channel we go live for

like an hour and 20 minutes and we talk

trades and and market news and stuff

like and then we go into the course

member live stream after that for about

30 40 50 minutes uh anyway I don't even

know where I was going with that um

whatever it doesn't matter okay so let's

move on to I literally forgot what I was

going to say there but that's okay uh so

um getting into the rest of what J pal

said we'll go there so uh quantitative

tightening Jerome Powell when it comes

to quantitative tightening is expecting

to begin QT sooner it's going to begin

oh po was late that's right I was going

to make a joke that uh if somebody told

you Kevin was one minute late to the

market open live stream everybody would

be like that's not news he's like late

every day one minute you know Powell

being late is news because it's

different thank you for catching me up

in the comments there appreciate that

okay so regarding QT I think jpow is

going to go for QT soon he says we're

ready fairly soon that was his quote but

why do I think that makes sense because

this if they're not going to cut rates

until the end of the year guess when you

can go do QT go do QT now start QT here

QT start uh so the reduction right the

slowing of QT can begin in the second

quarter so you slow qt in the second

quarter and then you do the rate cuts at

the end of the year okay that's a

potential strategy I think that's

probably right okay so uh three rate

Cuts still on deck for the year however

that longer term figure moved up Nick T

immediately picked up on that and

commented that that longer term rate

going to

2.65 is really the progression of this

upward drift that maybe rates will be

higher and we won't go back to the

levels we had previously Jerome Powell

did also suggests that we probably won't

be going back to the 0% we used to have

or the low rates we used to have so

that's sort of reiterating what we see

here uh inflation is still too high says

we've been averaging 265,000 job gains

the economy is doing very strongly and

we're going to slow the pace of QT

fairly slow soon inflation data has come

in a little higher but that was a

separate matter because we're making

good progress on inflation uh and uh

really there's a good reason to believe

that the January numbers even though

they were quite High there's reason to

believe they were seasonal seasonal uh

and so he doesn't want to be completely

dismissive of January but he does say

hey let's just see how D the data

evolves you know that could average out

now uh February was also high but Jerome

PA says not terribly high so he's

actually doish he he didn't I thought he

was going to come in with a tilt to the

hawkish side we got a tilt to the doish

side on PO woi here so good job on PO

now uh higher high by the way one of the

strategies we made this morning was if

we had

4.6 uh or lower goong triple QQ uh or

Tesla uh and uh and and trade out soon I

I can actually show you this I just

zoomed in on this really quick this was

one of the things we talked about in the

course member live stream this morning I

forgot I had this but I had this up uh

if sep at 4.6 or lower go long tqq or

Tesla well if you went long

tqq uh yeah look at that look at tqq

tqqq that's your triple leverage St up

as soon as we got that 4.6 even if you

went long at that Peak you'd still be up

uh so uh kind of interesting that's

that's literally what we wrote down this

morning how interesting all right so

rate Cuts will de depend on incoming

data we're looking for data to confirm

the low readings right exactly okay

let's keep going uh they're trying to

lap 2023 with data uh that may mean no

Cuts until October November December era

that's my CA that's my argument right

significant progress was made on

inflation last year stronger inflation

in the first half is usually what we see

along with less strong inflation in the

second half we don't know if this is a

bump or something more though in the

meantime the economy is strong all right

let me clarify that when he says we

don't know if this is a bump or

something more it means we are waiting

we are waiting waiting waiting uh the so

so that's that's a big deal uh waiting

is is basically in my opinion

reiterating that we're probably going to

end up being stuck waiting for September

October November December for these rate

cuts to really come in uh and bearing in

mind that there are no meetings in

October it's just September November

December got it uh QT will start soon

inflation wasn't caused by wages it was

that was an interesting sort of comment

that uh we're making progress on a g

gradual reduction and wage increases but

they were not the reason we saw High

inflation was more supply chain issues

and yes wages are playing catchup right

now and uh that's it so congratulations

uh that is JP's meeting done summer goes

in for surgery in an hour so I have to

say I'm pretty nervous I love baby

summer uh I hope she does well if my

camera would ever focus on baby summer

here come on camera uh but anyway I

don't even know what it's focusing on

there we go now baby summer look at baby

summer anyway

uh so yeah bottom line this is good for

the market it's good for the economy

it's good for the big six I think

interest ratees sensitive stocks are

going to they're probably moving up

because we saw the 46 I do think that

heads up on the 26 is a red flag for the

long term and I don't think anything

fundamentally changes in terms of you

know earnings for interest rate

sensitives anytime soon so there's no

interest in fundamentally changing my

opinion on on how long these rates are

going to stay high I think that

indication that we're probably not going

to get rate Cuts until the end of the

year we don't even guarantee that we're

going to get three especially since the

average moved up and the longer term has

moved up and Powell doesn't think we're

going back to zero any time soon those

sectors not too exciting for me so uh

sticking with that based on what we're

seeing with the latest data uh we are

being data dependent so to speak uh we

will be in uh right after the FED

meeting in June on June 12th on June

21st to June 23rd remember we will be at

uh the event in Vegas called the

millionaire Symposium encourage you to

be there buy your tickets because the

prices are going to continuously go up

we think the prices will be double by

the time we get closer to the event

we're getting ready to announce the

venue location and more speakers it's

going to be an amazing event Ben MAA is

already going to be there Ross Gerber is

going to be there uh I've got a bunch of

other uh potentially startups innovation

companies Innovation speakers crypto

folks expecting to be there so it's

going to be a really really cool event I

want I want to throw a really good party

so I'm very excited and I hope you join

and get the VIP ticket as well make sure

you really enjoy uh the VIP if you're

interested in that I'll probably limit

that to about 30% of the tickets so

check that out as far as stocks and

psych price goes up for the courses on

Friday and uh thank you so much for

being here really appreciate you all uh

thank you if those of you who support

supportive course members or or just

Watchers even if you're not a course

member I still love you so appreciate

you being here and we'll see you in the

next one goodbye not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

Go congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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