Democrats Plan to RUIN Trump 2025 is STARTING | Warning.

how Democrats might end up soiling

Donald Trump's presidency that is his

entire presidency it could end up being

labeled a failure by democrats for

something frankly out of his control and

in part out of Democrats control as well

but first let's understand how Donald

Trump should benefit the economy and

then let's talk about the real risk

factor that right now the Federal

Reserve says has a 57% chance of

happening in the next 10 months which is

a big problem and it would be very bad

for Donald Trump but before we get to

that let's talk about how Donald Trump

should benefit the economy first the tax

cut and jobs Act of 2017 benefited about

60% of Americans by lowering their taxes

KL Harris likes us to believe that only

those making over $400,000 benefited but

that's not true about 60% of Americans

benefited of course to different degrees

some wealthy people benefited to the

tune of millions of dollars and others

benefited only to the tune of maybe

hundreds to thousands of dollars but

Donald Trump has proposed or argued that

he is going to expand a lot of the tax

cuts that expire in 2025 and start

phasing out from this 2007 17 plan and

so we expect in addition to an expansion

of tax cuts for potentially uh vehicle

purchases plane purchases boat purchases

equipment purchases for businesses

hiring employee uh tax cuts on

potentially payroll tax cuts corporate

tax cuts potentially even lower than the

20 uh 21% where we sit now or the no tax

on tips maybe even no tax on overtime we

might see these tax policies implemented

my guess would be as soon as May

2025 Congress won't actually really get

to work until February and it'll take a

few months to pass some form of sweeping

tax legislation if they make this their

top priority I think they will and in my

opinion you're probably going to see

sweeping tax changes that benefit the

economy and that impact should be felt

sometime by the fourth quarter of 2025

or 2026 because obviously it takes time

for you to start actually recognizing

some of those tax benefits regulation

Cuts should also help businesses over

the long term I personally think if

we're going to have let's say Optimus

robots or full self-driving Vehicles

without steering wheels we're probably

going to get that sort of innovation

faster under Trump though I don't think

it's imminent I don't think I

necessarily agree with Elon that we're

in a 2026 but I do think that under

Trump you probably shave a few years off

the time frame as you're able to

accelerate that Innovation and companies

in the near term might actually avoid

bankruptcy specifically companies like

Spirit Airlines uh who might merge with

jet blue because you're likely to get

rid of these anti-m monopolistic folks

like KH over at the FTC trying to break

up Google other companies and prevents

mergers between companies like spirit

and JetBlue so in the near- term you

might actually end up keeping more jobs

at companies that don't go bankrupt

because of trump policies that make the

business environment more flexible and

uh quite frankly more conducive towards

growth I also think that Donald Trump's

tariffs are much more of a negotiation

point and that the worst case scenario

for tariffs has already been assumed by

the bond market that there's going to be

all this inflation I actually think

that's totally wrong and I actually

think bonds might be forming a bit of a

bottom in pricing right now on fears

over Trump tariffs but I think a lot of

this is Trump negotiating and if the

economy continues to slow I think the

last thing Donald Trump is going to do

is Implement potentially economically

crushing tariffs early in his 4-year

term maybe if we avoid a recession and

we get through the next two or three

years maybe it's more of a second half

of his term consideration but I don't

think tariffs are really going to be a

big day one issue nonetheless American

businesses are rallying look at stocks

alike Tesla up 133% today John Deere's

up 1.3% jx's green Apple's green

Microsoft's green Tesla uh obviously we

already talked to 133% is remarkable

caterpillar these are all American

manufacturers and they benefit from

us-based production the exception of

Apple which obviously contracts out to

China but people see apple as still an

American company that should benefit

from uh Donald Trump's plans mostly

because Donald Trump actually worked

with Tim Cook to help exempt a lot of

Apple products from tariffs you could

study that history uh from the 2018

Trump China uh trade War but but anyway

Donald Trump is expected to repeal

support for the green industry this

would probably take the form of

repealing the inflation reduction act

and while everything so far with the

exception of tariffs which I don't think

will come anytime soon anyway everything

so far is expansionary for the economy

the inflation reduction act will

probably actually enhance layoffs

starting in

2025 which is not great see companies

like nase which is down 19% at the time

of this

recording hires contract manufacturers

in the United States to build

microinverters Tesla uh and solar Edge

and First Solar hire companies or

manufacturer themselves batteries solar

panels solar inverters and they do that

in America with the benefit of quite

frankly Biden bucks to help motivate

them to produce these batteries and sell

them see it's the consumer who benefits

from cheaper batteries but it's also the

company who benefits with manufacturing

tax credits for building out the

manufacturing facilities to make this

kind of

product the inflation reduction Act is

credited for creating about 330,000 jobs

so far that's per Biden and that's

probably overcounted but if Donald Trump

does end up repealing the inflation

reduction act at the same time as he

passes job Cuts you're kind of boosting

the economy at the same time as you're

taking from the economy because you're

going to be losing jobs and now I'm not

saying that we need to Shi for green

energy I'm just saying you're going to

be adding to job pain while at the same

time trying to prop up consumers the

problem is the potential for a jobs

recession especially at a time that

we're trending

towards not the best economic outlook

for

2025 you've already got home builders

falling I mean look at Dr Horton down

about 5% Home Depot down over 4 and a

half% on the lack of a potential tax

credit for home buyers

and a a new high now on the 30-year

mortgage rate thanks in part due to

markets trying to price in some tariff

induced inflation under a trump

Administration which I do think yields

are likely to plummet not only because I

don't think Donald Trump's tariffs are

going to be that bad but also because of

quite frankly the giant elephant in the

room and this is what is not Donald

Trump's fault this is what is mostly the

Federal Reserve fault but Donald Trump

un fortunately for him is probably going

to take the blame for this we're going

to explain this in just a moment but I

want you to think about some of the

ironies back in 2020 I joke that if

Donald Trump lost the election in

2020 he would probably sit out all of

the inflation and then he could

potentially in the craziest irony come

back when the inflation rate is back

down well inflation rate when he left

office was around 25% it's around 2 and

1.2% right now and it went up to 9%

under Biden now obviously prices are

significantly higher but the rate of

growth that continued expansion of the

inflation has slowed substantially so

you do have this sort of irony but

another irony is possible as well Donald

Trump had to sit through the covid

recession which fortunately was very

short and a v-shaped recovery but Donald

Trump might have another big problem on

his hands he might open the door to the

White House just as the economy walks

into the next recession which actually

means even though Donald Trump had low

inflation under his first term of course

with Co policies likely contributed at

least somewhat to

inflation he might be defined as

somebody who has recession in 2020 and

then recession in

2025 and so people might argue Mr Trump

is Mr recession and I think this is how

Democrats might try to soil the Trump

Administration and then take power from

Trump in midterms 2 years later as they

show look Donald Trump's policies always

create recessions now that's not fair

because the policies that led to

inflation and the Federal Reserve to act

this way were a dual issue of both Trump

and Biden but also frankly probably more

so the fault of crazy government

spending and the Federal Reserve failing

to react quickly enough but I want you

to think about this with me imagine this

for a moment because this is a crazy

scenario imagine this Trump takes office

January 20th 2025 February job status

shows negative government and payrolls

data February 7th just 18 days later

markets freak out that we might be

either in a recession starting a

recession or about to go into a

recession as fears of recession begin to

Skyrocket Donald Trump does not

Implement any tariffs because he would

just add fuel to the recessionary fire

bond yields now plummet and the cost to

borrow plummets leading bonds to

Skyrocket and stocks to sell off

unfortunately as stocks sell off you end

up getting more joblessness now why

would you get a bad jobs report in

February because well you're going to

get seasonal layoffs which might be

resolved by the seasonal adjustments in

the labor report because you know on

February 7th we're going to get the

January jobs report we'll see how many

people have lost their jobs in January

after the holiday season but then on top

of that what do you have after that well

you have a very real

potential that election workers are now

all unemployed obviously uh and they

don't get captured in seasonal

adjustments and now you have this big

negative report on top of pay private

payrolls which are already negative

today now you really look and say wait a

minute this sounds like the Federal

Reserve uh and markets might need to

start considering the potential for a

recession and that's exactly what the

Federal Reserve is warning in fact if

you look here the Federal Reserve Bank

of New York posts the probability of us

recession and they haven't updated this

since September but it's worth looking

at it take a look at this probability of

us September uh or or sorry a recession

predicted by treasury spreads this is

September 2025 so this looks forward to

2025 and it's been looking forward to

2025 you know frankly for the last 11

months here September 2025

57% chance of recession this is higher

than where we were in 2007 when the

chance of recession was 40% or higher

than 2001 when the chance of recession

was 45% and we went into recession each

of those times every single time this

chance went over 30% we went into

recession no you did in you know the

'90s have a 20 to 30% you know 29 perish

but that's not over 30% we're at 57%

chance of recession right

now okay that's not particularly good so

what does that mean well if we end up

going into a recession Donald Trump's

tax cut and tariff plan that people and

markets think Donald Trump is going to

implement will actually end up turning

into something else it'll actually turn

into what I'm going to call the I'm

going to call it the uh Trump rescue

package and tax cut act probably needs a

lot of work on the titling there so

let's just call it the Trump rescue

package this ends up including tax cuts

hiring incentives for businesses cheap

loans for businesses personal loan

support for financials that might be

struggling now like a Sofi or a firm

that are struggling with people not

paying back their personal loans tax

credits potentially new real estate

investment tax credits to build homes as

the building Market slows down people

can't afford housing it's basically

stimulus

2.0 you might even have stimulus checks

again now

look this I don't actually think will be

enough to be inflationary that's because

Congress will be really cautious about

providing too much stimulus because

they're going to be worried about

inflation but because we're actually in

a real recession that's sort of got a

boot on its neck by artificial

intelligence which makes it harder for

people to want to hire more people

because you could just put existing

workers you have to work harder with AI

which makes it harder for businesses to

want to hire more in

expand the recessionary deflation that

occurs could end up meaning that the

Trump rescue package doesn't do enough

it basically just keeps us out of

deflation but it doesn't actually cause

any inflation what instead happens is

the Federal Reserve is going to have to

cut rates rapidly to 2 to 3% that won't

be enough and as stocks fall and

accelerate the pain Democrats blame

Trump for causing another recession and

then what ends up happening is Donald

Trump replaces Jerome Powell in May when

his term is up the FED gets a new chair

that is encouraged to drop rates to zero

which they then do and the FED basically

fully capitulates under Trump pressure

to get us out of a recession and that

could be your most glorious buying

opportunity not right now when markets

are pricing in pure perfection right now

markets are literally pricing in pure

perfection the bond market is freaking

out over inflation which is dumb I don't

think that's going to happen the stock

market is pricing in that everything's

going to go perfect and nothing's going

to go wrong and that growth is going to

keep going and there's not going to be a

recession but then when we look at the

latest data we go Q4 GDP estimates have

just been revised down to 2.4% the

average 3month uh employment uh uh

growth is just

103,000 once we start getting to 50 to

80k we start worrying about session and

really going negative with the total

number which is only positive because of

government jobs right now over the last

3 months the average of the first 6

months of 2024 were 228,000 jobs we

already know the S rule has triggered

and untriggered and it's likely to

trigger again if you don't know what

that is don't worry about it it's just a

recession indicator and you know the

alarm Bells have been going off on it

it's the sahm rule in case you want to

look it

up but what's really important here is

it suggests that the trend of

deterioration in the labor market is

getting worse quit rates are really low

which is a recessionary signal job

openings are really low which is a

recessionary signal and you're in a

position where hiring it just sucks

private payrolls are negative anybody

out there trying to get a job right now

knows how hard it is to actually get a

job right

now at present at the time of this

recording the yield curve is about 18

basis points uninverted now again fancy

Finance math here the point here is just

to say that we're getting close

to a level of

uninversity ready to blow basically and

unfortunately if it blows up in Donald

Trump's face

Donald Trump's going to get blamed for

it even though it's not his

fault now the job report uh you know

coming up in February or even just over

the next few months will be closely

watched but the Federal Reserve is

likely to move too slowly to make any

big difference until Donald Trump is

actually in office we do have a Fed

meeting tomorrow which I'll be covering

make sure if you haven't yet signed up

for the alpha report go to meet

kevin.com Alpha get a free report on my

thoughts uh on uh trades during the day

uh or for the day leading up trend lines

resistance lines uh volatility estimates

where valuations are high their where

valuations are low my thesis on Catalyst

coming up and otherwise obviously it's

not personalized advice but I encourage

you to check it out uh but you know

really you have to understand this the

Federal

Reserve by tomorrow will have cut

interest rates by 75 basis points yet

markets tighten yields by 80 so in other

words the FED is like hey things are

softening let's make things cheaper and

markets are like huh

let's make things more expensive by

basically the same amount that's really

bad because you just basically

restricted the economy even more and

when those High rates actually hit the

economy which probably takes 3 to 6

months surprise surprise brings us back

to q1 you know the first half basically

of 2025 right when Donald Trump walks

into office you probably end up in a

recession Federal Reserve says it's more

likely than a coin toss at this point

it's it's more likely than

not so what do you do like what do you

do in a scenario like this well in in my

opinion there are a few things that you

should do and uh first of all keep in

mind if you need personalized Financial

advice I can't give you that on this

channel because I don't know what your

situation is we do have an option for

you you go to stock hack.com and you can

actually get personalized advice we look

at your situation and help you figure

out exactly what to do and what's best

to do for your

situation but let's think about this for

a

moment something to consider consider in

the event that we are going into a

recession is building a larger emergency

fund something that's going to enable

you to buy that stock dip when the

Federal Reserve capitulates and

something that's going to be able to let

you float through potential job loss

over the next 2 years and I'm not saying

you're going to have your income go to

zero but your income may fall let's say

right now you're making $125,000 a year

either by yourself or with your spouse

or whatever what are you going to do if

that goes down by 30 % what if your

monthly budget was 30% tighter than it

is today and if today you're living

paycheck to paycheck imagine being

another 30%

down so I'd rather start thinking about

how do you build more insulation for

yourself do you do more side hustes do

you take more shifts while the economy

is still decent we're not in a recession

right now but do you take more shifts

and build more money now do you start

setting trailing limits on some of your

stocks you know maybe you say hey all my

stocks are going up this is great okay

that's totally fine so maybe what you do

is you set a wide trailing limit hey you

know sell Tesla if it falls by $40 okay

well great if Tesla keeps going up it

doesn't sell but if you have a trailing

good to cancel limit of 40 bucks and it

runs to 320 and then it goes back down

to 38 or 280 boom it triggers the

sell it's just an

idea uh so maybe trimming a little bit

of exposure from stocks but also

minimizing your debt not taking on more

debt during this sort of environment

paying down debt that you have so that

you have available borrowing capacity if

you need it in a recession when things

get tighter and something to really

consider if you have equity in your real

estate right now consider getting a home

equity line of credit really good idea

in my opinion to get a home equity line

of credit now when valuations are higher

because if valuations do Trend down you

don't want to be in a situation where

now you can't borrow anything you don't

have a credit line anymore doesn't mean

credit lines can't be frozen they can be

but I think it's better to have and not

need you don't have to borrow from it

you don't have to pay any interest rate

interest on it you know let's say you

have 100K in equity in your home and you

have an 80k credit line you're able to

pull on it just have it at least open

you know that way if there's uh you know

some market crash or whatever you've got

an insulative blanket that you know you

weren't even paying any interest rate on

or any interest expense on so these are

just some things to keep in mind some

things to consider but this right here

is exactly the playbook for how

Democrats could

destroy a Donald Trump

presidency recession and it wouldn't

even be his fault but I look forward to

covering the Trump rescue plan anyway

subscribe to the channel if you like

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the next one thanks so much folks

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